2022 Offseason Plan Thread

[caulfield12]

2 minutes ago, bmags said:

Where did Katz come from? Can’t remember…

They still aren't going to sign Gausman for about the same amount they're unwilling to extend Giolito...

[Balta1701]

5 minutes ago, bmags said:

Where did Katz come from? Can’t remember…

 

[Chicago White Sox]

51 minutes ago, caulfield12 said:

They still aren't going to sign Gausman for about the same amount they're unwilling to extend Giolito...

What amount is Giolito asking for?  I didn’t know this leaked.

[Bob Sacamano]

2 minutes ago, Chicago White Sox said:

What amount is Giolito asking for?  I didn’t know this leaked.

An amount didn’t leak but there was a quote from last season where he basically said implied that he owed it to other pitchers to get paid. I’ll dig up the quote tomorrow unless someone beats me to it.

Edited November 10, 2021 by Bob Sacamano

[caulfield12]

7 minutes ago, Chicago White Sox said:

What amount is Giolito asking for?  I didn’t know this leaked.

Just the ballpark estimate of what similar profile pitchers at his age and performance level are going for...

The other thing he has going for him is actually proving he can compete in the postseason over the last two years.

Both guys are really tough calls...we obviously were willing to go long-term for Wheeler and Tanaka before him, but those pitchers have been few and far between for the Sox since Danks' deal went south.

Edited November 10, 2021 by caulfield12

[Chicago White Sox]

5 minutes ago, caulfield12 said:

Just the ballpark estimate of what similar profile pitchers at his age and performance level are going for...

The other thing he has going for him is actually proving he can compete in the postseason over the last two years.

Both guys are really tough calls...we obviously were willing to go long-term for Wheeler and Tanaka before him, but those pitchers have been few and far between for the Sox since Danks' deal went south.

Wheeler was two years ago and Hahn made it sound like they’re looking for a long-term addition to the rotation.  Given the connection with Gausman and less of a track record that other guys, I could definitely see him being the target.  Again, Wheeler set a precedent that this is a price point we’re willing to play at.

[Look at Ray Ray Run]

5 hours ago, Squirmin' for Yermin said:

I don't have beef with him.. He just isn't a 138 million guy.. I'd be nervous giving him half of that.

I'd certainly give him half that, but 138 is a bit much.

Gausman is awesome and the real deal; that splitter has just changed who he is as a pitcher and put some value back in his fastball.

I'd be worried about him going from the best ballpark in baseball to pitch in to a decent hitters park, that's for sure. That said, I'd give Gausman a 4/90-95 or possible a 5/100ish type offer.

[South Side Hit Men]

1 hour ago, caulfield12 said:

The obvious point there is not to buy at peak, but to take undervalued or overlooked buy low guys and turn them into assets for your team, like Rodon and Lynn this season.

This is how the lone White Sox team within the past century which actually advanced in the playoffs was built. A mix of young Ron Schuler's solid young player core and a dozen savvy Kenny Williams free agent and trade acquisitions.

Hahn hamstrung flexibility or ability to add depth and fill holes by spending over $200M on a few older FAs at top of market prices (Grandal $73M, Keuchel $56M or $74M, Lynn's $39M extension, Encarnacion $13M, and whatever they get for the $20M (plus Heuer and Madrigal) spent on Kimbrel). 

2005 Chicago White Sox 99-63 $75.1M Opening Day Payroll (13th in MLB)

Ron Schuler Draft Picks / Trade Acqusitions: (Just over $1M for each 1 bWAR for this solid young core)

• Mark Beuhrle (1998 36th Round) $6.0M / 4.8 (bWAR)
• Jon Garland (1998 Trade) $3.4M / 4.7
• Paul Konerko (1998 Trade) $8.8M / 4.0
• Aaron Rowand (1998 1st Round) $2.0M / 3.7
• Joe Crede (1996 5th Round) $0.4M / 1.6

Kenny Williams Savvy Trade & Free Agent Acquisitions: ($2M for 1 bWAR for Contreras and Garcia, $1M for 1 bWAR for the rest)

• Jose Contreras (2004 Trade) $8.5M / 3.6
• Freddy Garcia (2004 Trade) $8.0M / 3.5
• Tadahito Iguchi (2005 Free Agent) $2.3M / 2.8
• Cliff Polite (2004 Free Agent) $1.0M / 2.7
• Jermaine Dye (2005 Free Agent) $4.0M / 2.5
• A. J. Pierzynski (2005 Free Agent) $2.3M / 2.3
• Juan Uribe (2004 Trade) $2.2M / 2,2
• Neal Cotts (2002 Trade) $0.3M / 2.0
• Dustin Hermanson (2005 Free Agent) $2.0M / 2.0
• Scott Podsednik (2005 Trade Acquisition) $0.7M / 1.7
• Brandon McCarthy (2002 17th Round) $0.3M / 1.2

[bmags]

1 hour ago, South Side Hit Men said:

This is how the lone White Sox team within the past century which actually advanced in the playoffs was built. A mix of young Ron Schuler's solid young player core and a dozen savvy Kenny Williams free agent and trade acquisitions.

Hahn hamstrung flexibility or ability to add depth and fill holes by spending over $200M on a few older FAs at top of market prices (Grandal $73M, Keuchel $56M or $74M, Lynn's $39M extension, Encarnacion $13M, and whatever they get for the $20M (plus Heuer and Madrigal) spent on Kimbrel). 

2005 Chicago White Sox 99-63 $75.1M Opening Day Payroll (13th in MLB)

Ron Schuler Draft Picks / Trade Acqusitions: (Just over $1M for each 1 bWAR for this solid young core)

• Mark Beuhrle (1998 36th Round) $6.0M / 4.8 (bWAR)
• Jon Garland (1998 Trade) $3.4M / 4.7
• Paul Konerko (1998 Trade) $8.8M / 4.0
• Aaron Rowand (1998 1st Round) $2.0M / 3.7
• Joe Crede (1996 5th Round) $0.4M / 1.6

Kenny Williams Savvy Trade & Free Agent Acquisitions: ($2M for 1 bWAR for Contreras and Garcia, $1M for 1 bWAR for the rest)

• Jose Contreras (2004 Trade) $8.5M / 3.6
• Freddy Garcia (2004 Trade) $8.0M / 3.5
• Tadahito Iguchi (2005 Free Agent) $2.3M / 2.8
• Cliff Polite (2004 Free Agent) $1.0M / 2.7
• Jermaine Dye (2005 Free Agent) $4.0M / 2.5
• A. J. Pierzynski (2005 Free Agent) $2.3M / 2.3
• Juan Uribe (2004 Trade) $2.2M / 2,2
• Neal Cotts (2002 Trade) $0.3M / 2.0
• Dustin Hermanson (2005 Free Agent) $2.0M / 2.0
• Scott Podsednik (2005 Trade Acquisition) $0.7M / 1.7
• Brandon McCarthy (2002 17th Round) $0.3M / 1.2

Yeah right on, and it was completely sustainable and they rode that strategy for a decade of playoff appearances

[ChiSox59]

4 hours ago, Chicago White Sox said:

Whoops, it’s technically meant to be a 6/$138M deal, which would be a $23M AAV.  Just typed in the wrong footnote, although I’m guessing that doesn’t change your view on the deal.

Can I ask why you don’t like a guy coming off a 4.8 win season and also looked really damn good in 2020 (partial season mind you)?

I just think that’s a lot of $ and years for him. He’s a good not great pitcher and I just don’t see him repeating 2021 with consistency. 

[South Side Hit Men]

4 hours ago, bmags said:

Yeah right on, and it was completely sustainable and they rode that strategy for a decade of playoff appearances

Let's wait and see if the Sox ever advance a single round under Hahn before mocking what Kenny did over his 12 years.

Kenny did it in four seasons. Hahn is entering season ten, zero playoff success, far more financial resources at his disposal than what Kenny had to work with.

[caulfield12]

7 hours ago, South Side Hit Men said:

This is how the lone White Sox team within the past century which actually advanced in the playoffs was built. A mix of young Ron Schuler's solid young player core and a dozen savvy Kenny Williams free agent and trade acquisitions.

Hahn hamstrung flexibility or ability to add depth and fill holes by spending over $200M on a few older FAs at top of market prices (Grandal $73M, Keuchel $56M or $74M, Lynn's $39M extension, Encarnacion $13M, and whatever they get for the $20M (plus Heuer and Madrigal) spent on Kimbrel). 

2005 Chicago White Sox 99-63 $75.1M Opening Day Payroll (13th in MLB)

Ron Schuler Draft Picks / Trade Acqusitions: (Just over $1M for each 1 bWAR for this solid young core)

• Mark Beuhrle (1998 36th Round) $6.0M / 4.8 (bWAR)
• Jon Garland (1998 Trade) $3.4M / 4.7
• Paul Konerko (1998 Trade) $8.8M / 4.0
• Aaron Rowand (1998 1st Round) $2.0M / 3.7
• Joe Crede (1996 5th Round) $0.4M / 1.6

Kenny Williams Savvy Trade & Free Agent Acquisitions: ($2M for 1 bWAR for Contreras and Garcia, $1M for 1 bWAR for the rest)

• Jose Contreras (2004 Trade) $8.5M / 3.6
• Freddy Garcia (2004 Trade) $8.0M / 3.5
• Tadahito Iguchi (2005 Free Agent) $2.3M / 2.8
• Cliff Polite (2004 Free Agent) $1.0M / 2.7
• Jermaine Dye (2005 Free Agent) $4.0M / 2.5
• A. J. Pierzynski (2005 Free Agent) $2.3M / 2.3
• Juan Uribe (2004 Trade) $2.2M / 2,2
• Neal Cotts (2002 Trade) $0.3M / 2.0
• Dustin Hermanson (2005 Free Agent) $2.0M / 2.0
• Scott Podsednik (2005 Trade Acquisition) $0.7M / 1.7
• Brandon McCarthy (2002 17th Round) $0.3M / 1.2

Don't forget Jenks off waivers.

[Chicago White Sox]

4 hours ago, South Side Hit Men said:

Let's wait and see if the Sox ever advance a single round under Hahn before mocking what Kenny did over his 12 years.

Kenny did it in four seasons. Hahn is entering season ten, zero playoff success, far more financial resources at his disposal than what Kenny had to work with.

Your last sentence isn’t even remotely true.  We had the 13th highest OD payroll in 2005, but then rocked top 5 payrolls for three straight years from 2006 to 2008 and payrolls in the 7 to 11 range in the three years thereafter.  KW had massive payrolls to work with during this seven year period and ultimately got us two playoff appearances and one title.

Hahn’s best payroll was 11th overall in 2013 and has never been higher than 15th since then, including the 2020 & 2021 seasons that both ended in playoff appearances.  It’s very clear you’re choosing to ignore inflation and changes in league wide spending as Hahn has yet to benefit from an above average payroll since the rebuild finished.

The reality is we made the playoffs twice under KW over 12 years and twice under Hahn over nine years (which included multiple rebuilding years).  Citing playoff outcomes in samples this small and attributing it to the GM is ridiculous.  I get you have a beef to solve with Hahn, but you’re better than providing false narratives to accomplish said task.

[Tony]

1 hour ago, Chicago White Sox said:

Your last sentence isn’t even remotely true.  We had the 13th highest OD payroll in 2005, but then rocked top 5 payrolls for three straight years from 2006 to 2008 and payrolls in the 7 to 11 range in the three years thereafter.  KW had massive payrolls to work with during this seven year period and ultimately got us two playoff appearances and one title.

Hahn’s best payroll was 11th overall in 2013 and has never been higher than 15th since then, including the 2020 & 2021 seasons that both ended in playoff appearances.  It’s very clear you’re choosing to ignore inflation and changes in league wide spending as Hahn has yet to benefit from an above average payroll since the rebuild finished.

The reality is we made the playoffs twice under KW over 12 years and twice under Hahn over nine years (which included multiple rebuilding years).  Citing playoff outcomes in samples this small and attributing it to the GM is ridiculous.  I get you have a beef to solve with Hahn, but you’re better than providing false narratives to accomplish said task.

Lol, are you new here?

[bmags]

7 hours ago, South Side Hit Men said:

Let's wait and see if the Sox ever advance a single round under Hahn before mocking what Kenny did over his 12 years.

Kenny did it in four seasons. Hahn is entering season ten, zero playoff success, far more financial resources at his disposal than what Kenny had to work with.

I'm not mocking anyone except your point. The white sox have done the hard part of building a floor of a very competitive team. In 2003-2005 the white sox hit on a quite a few flyer free agents. They then struggled to recreate that success consistently, because it is hard and involves quite a bit of luck. There is a reason these guys are available - age, injury history, poor/mediocre prior performance. Obviously, there are teams that have done well but even then it's not a slam dunk.

Every acquisition is a gamble, where you pay more it's for greater certainty. There was plenty of room for flyer free agents from 2017-20. If you miss on a guy in hopes of squeezing value out of them, you are also wasting the chance to put together the best team possible for this core. Teams pay wildly for that extra 2% and they aren't wrong.

[South Side Hit Men]

LOL, "Playoff appearances" are NOT the standard, playoff performance and fielding a competitive playoff team is the standard. The stated window for Hahn and any plan seeking accountability is "Championship Window", not winning an AL Central over four tanking teams or a Wild Card birth while legitimate micro small market teams Cleveland and Minnesota were actually trying.

Fielding competitive teams that can compete in October is the goal. If they were like the Giants or other teams and played a competitive full series losing in a heartbreaking final game 5/7, than yes, they at least can say they fielded a competitive team with a possible chance at advancing and competing for a WS. The Sox were the least competitive team across all 2021 playoff DS/CS/WS teams. This was not a "crapshoot", this was a complete and utter domination by Dusty Baker and the Houston Astros. 

In terms of playoffs and "salary inflation", the Sox were 13th in 2005, and finished 12th in 2021 (CBA tax / full season tracking), with likely Top 10 payrolls planned until fans grow wise to Jerry's latest carrot scheme. Kenny Williams picked up several players who were key contributors to THREE playoff series wins (three more than Hahn plus Tony combined over nearly two combined decades of White Sox baseball), and an 11-1 (.917) playoff record in 2005, 12-4 (.750) overall. Meanwhile Tony La Russa, (2-6 .250 lifetime in eight + years with White Sox - the only record I and other Sox fans should give a rats ass about) and Hahn 2-5 (.286) were completely owned and nowhere close to fielding a competitive playoff team, despite three months of rest, Tony's "playoff switch" and "HOF schematic advantage", silly gamesmanship and unwritten rules obsession.

Kenny Williams spread the payroll across dozens of successful bets. Hahn was all in on a few old Free Agents, going well over any other reported bid, and failed miserably. What Playoff "juice" did North Shore Cubby Boi Rick Hahn "squeeze" after $120M + spent during the past two seasons under their "World Championship Window"?

• $36.5M Keuchel 3 1/3 IP, 8.10 ERA, Banned from 2021 playoff roster, team and fans hope he does not return or does not vest next year.
• $36.6M Grandal Kudos he hit outstanding, Hahn's one shinning moment, though he calls shitty games, cannot catch breaking balls, had a Playoff CERA of 1-5 6.84 (McCann 1-0 1.00). $36.5M to go, two knee surgeries and counting.
• $13.0M Encarnacion OPS 0.000 Completely worthless from Day One.
• $11.3M Hendriks 9.00 ERA, Meaningless playoff appearances (9.00 ERA), but he should pan out OK the rest of the three seasons, not $18M + like the other three. Hahn's other decent signing.
• $9.5M Lynn 3 2/3 IP, 12.27 ERA. Hahn needlessly committed another $39.0M midseason and he petered out since then, with a likely knee surgery on deck and regression to follow.
• $8.0M Eaton DFA in July, worthless as most fans projected upon his signing announcement. Hahn thought this was wise. (Narrator "It was not.")
• $5.0M Kimbrel Completely worthless, Hahn doubled down and threw $16.0M more onto the fire in an attempt to salvage something, anything, for this complete disaster.

In terms of "false narratives", Hahn has spent the past week claiming the Sox did not win their "ultimate goal" of winning the final postseason game. This is completely disingenuous. They fell far, far short of getting to that point, falling three rounds short and not even close to fielding a competitive playoff team this year, or his previous eight seasons. They regressed from Ricky Renteria performed in 2020, despite the fact they significantly bumped payroll. They are payroll top heavy and entering a third season with limited flexibility to properly fill RF (Hahn fielded 16 "solutions" the past two seasons) and 2B (Mendick and Romy are the current #1 and #2 options), and no signs they can afford substantial upgrades after going all in on Keuchel, Grandal, Kimbrel and Lynn's extension. Yes the money has been spent. Sadly it was spent by Rick Hahn.

Kenny Williams didn't have a losing record as GM, didn't need to pawn off everything inherited by the previous GM plus four additional years to make the playoffs. Kenny Williams finished with a World Series after four seasons. Hahn began tanking after four seasons, pawning off anything he inherited off of Kenny Williams to buy five more years without a single playoff advancing team before or after. 

Kenny Williams was the only successful GM in a century of White Sox baseball. His only fault was keeping Hahn around for a decade, and he likely had no say in the matter. Kenny was sadly screwed by Jerry out of a promotion to become Toronto's President (Kenny still is third in command behind Jerry and Howard Pizer). He and his players deserved a better fate than be saddled with Jerry, Hahn and La Russa during his career.

[Squirmin' for Yermin]

I wonder how crazy a trade with the Mariners would be swapping prospects for better fits:

 

Vaughn + for:

Gilbert and Haniger

 

Haniger only has 1 year left so how much can he really command alone in a trade?  Vaughn > Gilbert. This is a MLB The Show type trade lol

[Chicago White Sox]

1 hour ago, Squirmin' for Yermin said:

I wonder how crazy a trade with the Mariners would be swapping prospects for better fits:

 

Vaughn + for:

Gilbert and Haniger

 

Haniger only has 1 year left so how much can he really command alone in a trade?  Vaughn > Gilbert. This is a MLB The Show type trade lol

Out of curiosity, but how does Vaughn fit in Seattle?  Seems like they’re loaded in the OF (even without Haniger) and have White locked up through 2025.  Just don’t really see them being all that excited to trade Gilbert+ for him.

[Whisox05]

 

[southsider2k5]

1 minute ago, aeichhor said:

 

I don't believe the last part.

[hi8is]

2 hours ago, southsider2k5 said:

I don't believe the last part.

I do and I think in part we can chalk up not offering one as a means to get into Boras’s good graces.

[hi8is]

3 hours ago, southsider2k5 said:

I don't believe the last part.

Conforto, Semien, Scherzer, Rodon, and Bryant are the guys I could see us expressing interest in.

[caulfield12]

9 hours ago, Squirmin' for Yermin said:

I wonder how crazy a trade with the Mariners would be swapping prospects for better fits:

 

Vaughn + for:

Gilbert and Haniger

 

Haniger only has 1 year left so how much can he really command alone in a trade?  Vaughn > Gilbert. This is a MLB The Show type trade lol

No way in H.E.L.L. the Mariners would go for that trade proposal...

[CaliSoxFanViaSWside]

5 hours ago, hi8is said:

I do and I think in part we can chalk up not offering one as a means to get into Boras’s good graces.

I do too. They should have offered him the QO. I don't see any reason to try to get into Boras' good graces however. I'm not sure there is a way to do that. He's all business. At least offer the QO and get the draft pick. The Sox have to be all business too and get a draft pick when they can. It's not like helping Carlos's market by not attaching the draft pick compensation would get them in Boras' good graces.

On the other hand, my pessimistic side is telling me that the Sox were actually being all business and Rodon actually accepting the offer would've meant more guys on the payroll when they are bracing for a strike and probably prefer less players under contract. They just didn't want to take the chance he would accept. Isn't the 40 man roster at somewhere around 33 now when you count their 4 free agents and the guys they outrighted to the minors. I fear that all this was a precursor to how they will do business before and during a work stoppage.

Others here thought he'd accept it  and I would've been fine with that. Rodon pitched like a true ace for peanuts until he ran out of steam which most of us saw coming because of the limited innings he pitched in the previous 2 years.

There's always going to be questions about his health but his last game was encouraging and if he was just fatigued and not truly injured he showed me more than enough to think what he did is sustainable. One year of a true ace for $18.4M isn't much of a gamble financially especially after what he gave the Sox in 2021.

[hi8is]

18 minutes ago, CaliSoxFanViaSWside said:

I do too. They should have offered him the QO. I don't see any reason to try to get into Boras' good graces however. I'm not sure there is a way to do that. He's all business. At least offer the QO and get the draft pick. The Sox have to be all business too and get a draft pick when they can. It's not like helping Carlos's market by not attaching the draft pick compensation would get them in Boras' good graces.

On the other hand, my pessimistic side is telling me that the Sox were actually being all business and Rodon actually accepting the offer would've meant more guys on the payroll when they are bracing for a strike and probably prefer less players under contract. They just didn't want to take the chance he would accept. Isn't the 40 man roster at somewhere around 33 now when you count their 4 free agents and the guys they outrighted to the minors. I fear that all this was a precursor to how they will do business before and during a work stoppage.

Others here thought he'd accept it  and I would've been fine with that. Rodon pitched like a true ace for peanuts until he ran out of steam which most of us saw coming because of the limited innings he pitched in the previous 2 years.

There's always going to be questions about his health but his last game was encouraging and if he was just fatigued and not truly injured he showed me more than enough to think what he did is sustainable. One year of a true ace for $18.4M isn't much of a gamble financially especially after what he gave the Sox in 2021.

Yea I agree on all fronts.

Only possibility for extending the friendship bridge to Boras would be simple things like him prioritizing meetings for them with his free agents… or maybe he would sing the Sox praise if the offers were nearly the same… like we saw a couple years back with Wheeler.