2022 Offseason Plan Thread

[whitesoxwinner]

10 hours ago, CaliSoxFanViaSWside said:

I'm the one who originally asked for your source and like a big boy I looked it up myself. Mr . Feelings is doing what he always does. All commenters had to do is their own work .

That being said Schwarber played LF and Conforto played RF so you can't project what Schwarber would do in RF .

OAA has Schwarber a -6 in LF and Conforto a +1.  OAA is Outs Above Average.  Edge Conforto by a large margin

DRS : Schwarber -5 , Conforto -4 Defensive Runs Saved  .  Edge Conforto.  Usally bad OF's get worse the more innings they play so if Schwarber had as many innings as Conforto he is likely slightly worse than the -5.

UZR150 : Schwarber - 6.3 ,Conforto -6.8.  Edge Schwarber but again the innings could make a difference.

Schwarber played 724 innings in LF, Conforto 956 in RF

Conforto had the best 3 yrs of his career from 2017-2019

Schwarbers best 3 yrs are slightly more recent 2018 ,19,21

Conforto's best years are better than Schwarbers best years.

Schwarber worst year with over 450PA was 2017. Conforto's worst season 2021.

cali I was referring to Southside2k, not you. You have clearly demonstrated the ability to use the internet

[whitesoxwinner]

11 hours ago, Chicago White Sox said:

Since 2017 Schwarber has been worth -11 DRS in LF (4,000 innings) while Conforto has been worth +1 in LF (1,100 innings).  Conforto has also been worth +2 in RF during that same time period (2,600 innings).  That includes Michael’s down, injury ridden 2021 that brought his cumulative DRS in RF down 4.  Unless I’m missing something, he’s been negative pretty much every year except the one where guys tested his arm and he racked up a ton of assists.  Regardless, it’s not comparable who the better defender and go look at OAA if you don’t believe as that will tell as even more convincing story.

I agree that over the course of their careers conforto has been better defensively, but  I was specifically referencing the last year. Overall conforto has proven to be the better defensive player, but last year he wasn't good and defense isn't a valid reason to sign him over schwarber 

[Chicago White Sox]

1 hour ago, whitesoxwinner said:

I agree that over the course of their careers conforto has been better defensively, but  I was specifically referencing the last year. Overall conforto has proven to be the better defensive player, but last year he wasn't good and defense isn't a valid reason to sign him over schwarber 

One year of defensive metrics isn’t predictive and for players their age you should look at their entire body of work.  The reality is Conforto is a better defensive OF and can play RF.  There isn’t much to debate here.  The bulk of Schwarber’s defensive over his career is tied to outfield assists in a single season.  He has been a negative defensive player every other year, including the last couple.  He is really bad out there as OAA paints very clearly.  So yes, defense is a very reason for signing Conforto over Schwarber.

[poppysox]

12 hours ago, maxjusttyped said:

It's always gonna be too soon for me, too

I hear you.

[Chicago White Sox]

So let’s assume the $190M to $200M payroll range for next year is accurate.  How would you feel if the moves below represented our final offseason more or less?

• Graveman = 3/$24M
• Kimbrel to PHI for Segura, Marchan, & Alvarado
• Conforto = 4/$76M
• Keuchel + $7M to NYM for PTBNL
• Gausman = 5/$120M

For just under $200M you’d be rocking something like this:

• Lineup = 1) Moncada, 3B# | 2) Robert, CF | 3) Abreu, 1B | 4) Conforto, RF* | 5) Jimenez, LF | 6) Anderson, SS | 7) Grandal, C# | ? Vaughn, DH | 9) Segura, 2B
• Bench = IF: Gonzalez | OF: Engel | 1B/OF: Sheets* | BC: Marchan
• Rotation = #1: Giolito | #2: Gausman | #3: Lynn | #4: Cease | #5: Kopech
• Bullpen = CL: Hendriks | SU: Bummer* | SU: Graveman | MR: Crochet* | MR: Ruiz | MR: Alvarado* | MR: Burr | LR: Lopez

I don’t love the Segura fit at that price point, but he would greatly improve our infield defense at least and provide some OBP at the bottom of the lineup.  And while I’d prefer Scherzer as a legit ace, I love Gausman as a cheaper alternative if Jerry won’t foot the bill for Max.  The bullpen gives me some concerns on the front-end, so I wouldn’t be against another cheap add there.  But the best part of this plan is we basically keep all our young players and assets, providing much needed depth and ammo for mid-season additions if needed.

[Lillian]

34 minutes ago, Chicago White Sox said:

So let’s assume the $190M to $200M payroll range for next year is accurate.  How would you feel if the moves below represented our final offseason more or less?

• Graveman = 3/$24M
• Kimbrel to PHI for Segura, Marchan, & Alvarado
• Conforto = 4/$76M
• Keuchel + $7M to NYM for PTBNL
• Gausman = 5/$120M

For just under $200M you’d be rocking something like this:

• Lineup = 1) Moncada, 3B# | 2) Robert, CF | 3) Abreu, 1B | 4) Conforto, RF* | 5) Jimenez, LF | 6) Anderson, SS | 7) Grandal, C# | ? Vaughn, DH | 9) Segura, 2B
• Bench = IF: Gonzalez | OF: Engel | 1B/OF: Sheets* | BC: Marchan
• Rotation = #1: Giolito | #2: Gausman | #3: Lynn | #4: Cease | #5: Kopech
• Bullpen = CL: Hendriks | SU: Bummer* | SU: Graveman | MR: Crochet* | MR: Ruiz | MR: Alvarado* | MR: Burr | LR: Lopez

I don’t love the Segura fit at that price point, but he would greatly improve our infield defense at least and provide some OBP at the bottom of the lineup.  And while I’d prefer Scherzer as a legit ace, I love Gausman as a cheaper alternative if Jerry won’t foot the bill for Max.  The bullpen gives me some concerns on the front-end, so I wouldn’t be against another cheap add there.  But the best part of this plan is we basically keep all our young players and assets, providing much needed depth and ammo for mid-season additions if needed.

Not only would I like it, but it's pretty close to what I have been thinking. I would prefer Sheets, over Vaughn, vs. RHP and Anderson hitting 2ND, but otherwise the lineup looks good to me. Alvarado has serious control issues which have caused his WHIP to be north of 1.60 in each of the last 3 seasons, averaging well over 7 BB's per 9 innings. I don't think he can be counted on, so I agree that the Sox would still need another arm for the pen.

Edited November 25, 2021 by Lillian

[Flash]

1 hour ago, Chicago White Sox said:

So let’s assume the $190M to $200M payroll range for next year is accurate.  How would you feel if the moves below represented our final offseason more or less?

• Graveman = 3/$24M
• Kimbrel to PHI for Segura, Marchan, & Alvarado
• Conforto = 4/$76M
• Keuchel + $7M to NYM for PTBNL
• Gausman = 5/$120M

For just under $200M you’d be rocking something like this:

• Lineup = 1) Moncada, 3B# | 2) Robert, CF | 3) Abreu, 1B | 4) Conforto, RF* | 5) Jimenez, LF | 6) Anderson, SS | 7) Grandal, C# | ? Vaughn, DH | 9) Segura, 2B
• Bench = IF: Gonzalez | OF: Engel | 1B/OF: Sheets* | BC: Marchan
• Rotation = #1: Giolito | #2: Gausman | #3: Lynn | #4: Cease | #5: Kopech
• Bullpen = CL: Hendriks | SU: Bummer* | SU: Graveman | MR: Crochet* | MR: Ruiz | MR: Alvarado* | MR: Burr | LR: Lopez

I don’t love the Segura fit at that price point, but he would greatly improve our infield defense at least and provide some OBP at the bottom of the lineup.  And while I’d prefer Scherzer as a legit ace, I love Gausman as a cheaper alternative if Jerry won’t foot the bill for Max.  The bullpen gives me some concerns on the front-end, so I wouldn’t be against another cheap add there.  But the best part of this plan is we basically keep all our young players and assets, providing much needed depth and ammo for mid-season additions if needed.

Nice. My concern is JR won't sign two $20M/yr FAs (Gausman and Conforto). As much as I like Conforto and have lobbied for him in the past, I think the better move is signing (Chris Taylor) or trading for (Ketel Marte) as versatile 2B/OFs who provide flexibility and room for Vaughn and Sheets to develop. I'd also like to test if Keuchel might have a little gas left in the tank before salary dump.  

[YouCanPutItOnTheBoardYES!]

Am I the only one who doesn’t really want Gausman at that price point? He wasn’t that good at all in the 2nd half this past season.

[FoxForce2]

1 hour ago, Chicago White Sox said:

So let’s assume the $190M to $200M payroll range for next year is accurate.  How would you feel if the moves below represented our final offseason more or less?

• Graveman = 3/$24M
• Kimbrel to PHI for Segura, Marchan, & Alvarado
• Conforto = 4/$76M
• Keuchel + $7M to NYM for PTBNL
• Gausman = 5/$120M

For just under $200M you’d be rocking something like this:

• Lineup = 1) Moncada, 3B# | 2) Robert, CF | 3) Abreu, 1B | 4) Conforto, RF* | 5) Jimenez, LF | 6) Anderson, SS | 7) Grandal, C# | ? Vaughn, DH | 9) Segura, 2B
• Bench = IF: Gonzalez | OF: Engel | 1B/OF: Sheets* | BC: Marchan
• Rotation = #1: Giolito | #2: Gausman | #3: Lynn | #4: Cease | #5: Kopech
• Bullpen = CL: Hendriks | SU: Bummer* | SU: Graveman | MR: Crochet* | MR: Ruiz | MR: Alvarado* | MR: Burr | LR: Lopez

I don’t love the Segura fit at that price point, but he would greatly improve our infield defense at least and provide some OBP at the bottom of the lineup.  And while I’d prefer Scherzer as a legit ace, I love Gausman as a cheaper alternative if Jerry won’t foot the bill for Max.  The bullpen gives me some concerns on the front-end, so I wouldn’t be against another cheap add there.  But the best part of this plan is we basically keep all our young players and assets, providing much needed depth and ammo for mid-season additions if needed.

I prefer Stroman over Gausman but whatever...  neither of them are exactly Sox locks in this market.
Your lineup is interesting. I've thought about alternating Moncada and Anderson at the 1 and 3 spots. Slotting everyone else down a rung. i.e Abreu and Eloy alternating at 4 and 5. Grandal can get hot and he'd be getting AB's higher in the lineup at times. Where did you come up with Marchan? Having posted it elsewhere, I don't see how the Sox  can rely on Grandal for much more than 80-90 games behind the plate in '22, which would necessitate having a more experienced catcher to come in on a regular basis. A couple of the best FA #2/Backup catchers have already been scarfed up and that segment of the market is drying up.

[Chicago White Sox]

8 minutes ago, Flash said:

Nice. My concern is JR won't sign two $20M/yr FAs (Gausman and Conforto). As much as I like Conforto and have lobbied for him in the past, I think the better move is signing (Chris Taylor) or trading for (Ketel Marte) as versatile 2B/OFs who provide flexibility and room for Vaughn and Sheets to develop. I'd also like to test if Keuchel might have a little gas left in the tank before salary dump.  

To me, it’s now or never to supplement the base roster with pieces that can help us get a championship.  From my perspective, long-term we can afford to add two guys with AAVs that add up to $40M or so before we start approaching problematic territory with raises, etc.  Taylor would be a nice player, but I think 2017 to 2020 Conforto is the exact player this lineup needs and I think we’d be getting that player at a huge discount.  As for Gausman, I want another TOR starter and while not a true ace, he gives us a quality #2 starter who may have some room improvement given his strong connection with Katz.  His addition gives us arguably the deepest and most talented rotation in baseball.

[maloney.adam]

41 minutes ago, Flash said:

Nice. My concern is JR won't sign two $20M/yr FAs (Gausman and Conforto). As much as I like Conforto and have lobbied for him in the past, I think the better move is signing (Chris Taylor) or trading for (Ketel Marte) as versatile 2B/OFs who provide flexibility and room for Vaughn and Sheets to develop. I'd also like to test if Keuchel might have a little gas left in the tank before salary dump.  

 

11 minutes ago, Chicago White Sox said:

To me, it’s now or never to supplement the base roster with pieces that can help us get a championship.  From my perspective, long-term we can afford to add two guys with AAVs that add up to $40M or so before we start approaching problematic territory with raises, etc.  Taylor would be a nice player, but I think 2017 to 2020 Conforto is the exact player this lineup needs and I think we’d be getting that player at a huge discount.  As for Gausman, I want another TOR starter and while not a true ace, he gives us a quality #2 starter who may have some room improvement given his strong connection with Katz.  His addition gives us arguably the deepest and most talented rotation in baseball.

I just don’t see how they fill all those needs for less than $20 million total as well. 

Edited November 25, 2021 by maloney.adam

[FoxForce2]

30 minutes ago, Flash said:

Nice. My concern is JR won't sign two $20M/yr FAs (Gausman and Conforto). As much as I like Conforto and have lobbied for him in the past, I think the better move is signing (Chris Taylor) or trading for (Ketel Marte) as versatile 2B/OFs who provide flexibility and room for Vaughn and Sheets to develop. I'd also like to test if Keuchel might have a little gas left in the tank before salary dump.  

Bringing in Taylor or Marte could easily turn 2B/RF into positions-by-committee. I kinda like the idea but I don't know that TLR would take to it especially well. 

[Chicago White Sox]

18 minutes ago, YouCanPutItOnTheBoardYES! said:

Am I the only one who doesn’t really want Gausman at that price point? He wasn’t that good at all in the 2nd half this past season.

His xFIP was actually lower in the 2nd half than the first half.  He did give up harder contact and more HRs, but the K rate improved and the BB rate was the same.  Not sure there is enough there to be overly concerned.

[Bob Sacamano]

23 minutes ago, YouCanPutItOnTheBoardYES! said:

Am I the only one who doesn’t really want Gausman at that price point? He wasn’t that good at all in the 2nd half this past season.

I agree.

Edited November 25, 2021 by Bob Sacamano

[Chicago White Sox]

9 minutes ago, FoxForce2 said:

I prefer Stroman over Gausman but whatever...  neither of them are exactly Sox locks in this market.
Your lineup is interesting. I've thought about alternating Moncada and Anderson at the 1 and 3 spots. Slotting everyone else down a rung. i.e Abreu and Eloy alternating at 4 and 5. Grandal can get hot and he'd be getting AB's higher in the lineup at times. Where did you come up with Marchan? Having posted it elsewhere, I don't see how the Sox  can rely on Grandal for much more than 80-90 games behind the plate in '22, which would necessitate having a more experienced catcher to come in on a regular basis. A couple of the best FA #2/Backup catchers have already been scarfed up and that segment of the market is drying up.

Marchan is based off some speculation and is a name that James confirmed has been involved in Kimbrel discussions with the Phillies.

[CentralChamps21]

I'm a little bit surprised that we've not heard anything yet about Leury. I thought he would have been a quick sign.

[Chicago White Sox]

6 minutes ago, CentralChamps21 said:

I'm a little bit surprised that we've not heard anything yet about Leury. I thought he would have been a quick sign.

I’d rather save $4M to $5M and give his job to Romy.

[CentralChamps21]

6 minutes ago, Chicago White Sox said:

I’d rather save $4M to $5M and give his job to Romy.

Leury was a 2.0 WAR guy this year and I don't have the confidence that Romy is ready to produce at that level yet. Sign Leury for 2 years and give Romy some more time in the minors.

[MiddleCoastBias]

9 minutes ago, CentralChamps21 said:

I'm a little bit surprised that we've not heard anything yet about Leury. I thought he would have been a quick sign.

Tough to commit dollars to a utility guy first when we're still trying to get a judge on the landscape of what the available big ticket FAs want and what we can fit in our budget.

I'm sure they're in touch with his camp talking numbers to see what he's looking for and then will see if they can fit that in after having a better idea of our other signings. 

Wouldn't want a $5M locked into Leury prevent us from getting someone to fill RF/2B/SP and fill Leury's spot with Romy on the cheap.

[Harold's Leg Lift]

47 minutes ago, YouCanPutItOnTheBoardYES! said:

Am I the only one who doesn’t really want Gausman at that price point? He wasn’t that good at all in the 2nd half this past season.

They would have been in on him last year if he turned down the QO because they viewed him as a bargain but he's not a bargain anymore. 

[YouCanPutItOnTheBoardYES!]

29 minutes ago, Chicago White Sox said:

His xFIP was actually lower in the 2nd half than the first half.  He did give up harder contact and more HRs, but the K rate improved and the BB rate was the same.  Not sure there is enough there to be overly concerned.

Just not sure if he is worth $24 AAV. If they are spending big on a SP I would rather have Scherzer (even though I know he would cost more from an AAV standpoint).

[Chicago White Sox]

9 minutes ago, CentralChamps21 said:

Leury was a 2.0 WAR guy this year and I don't have the confidence that Romy is ready to produce at that level yet. Sign Leury for 2 years and give Romy some more time in the minors.

I don’t have confidence Leury is a 2 win player going forward.  As such, I’d rather divert resources to RF, 2B, and SP.

[Flash]

38 minutes ago, FoxForce2 said:

Bringing in Taylor or Marte could easily turn 2B/RF into positions-by-committee. I kinda like the idea but I don't know that TLR would take to it especially well. 

I think it would work nicely and I particularly like CT because as Hi8s has pointed out, he's a grinder and I think attitude and grindiness are as important as some of the more measurables for this teams current composition. We have an ample supply of spirited free swingers and can use the intangibles and chemistry a guy like CT can bring.   

[hi8is]

12 minutes ago, YouCanPutItOnTheBoardYES! said:

I would rather have Scherzer

So would 29 other teams. Well, maybe 28 if you take out the A’s.

[Chicago White Sox]

12 minutes ago, YouCanPutItOnTheBoardYES! said:

Just not sure if he is worth $24 AAV. If they are spending big on a SP I would rather have Scherzer (even though I know he would cost more from an AAV standpoint).

I’d rather have Scherzer too, but I’m operating under the assumption that Kimbrel is dealt for Segura+, which makes it much more challenging to also add a left-handed bat.  Obviously that is far from a certainty, but was the point of the exercise.