2022 Offseason Plan Thread

[hi8is]

Damned holiday… restricting movement. ?

[Lillian]

1 hour ago, Chicago White Sox said:

To me, it’s now or never to supplement the base roster with pieces that can help us get a championship.  From my perspective, long-term we can afford to add two guys with AAVs that add up to $40M or so before we start approaching problematic territory with raises, etc.  Taylor would be a nice player, but I think 2017 to 2020 Conforto is the exact player this lineup needs and I think we’d be getting that player at a huge discount.  As for Gausman, I want another TOR starter and while not a true ace, he gives us a quality #2 starter who may have some room improvement given his strong connection with Katz.  His addition gives us arguably the deepest and most talented rotation in baseball.

Looking at the Game Logs, from last season, Gausman was dominant during the first 3 months. His second half was not nearly as good, and he gave up 4 earned runs in two consecutive starts, both against the Padres. The long ball hurt him in the last month. Does anyone know to what his second half decline might be attributed? 

[caulfield12]

3 minutes ago, Lillian said:

Looking at the Game Logs, from last season, Gausman was dominant during the first 3 months. His second half was not nearly as good, and he gave up 4 earned runs in two consecutive starts, both against the Padres. The long ball hurt him in the last month. Does anyone know to what his second half decline might be attributed? 

Fatigue coming off abbreviated 2020 and lots of innings/pitches in the first half is the likeliest answer…then the Dodgers were “pretty good” and the Rockies on the road maybe?   

He actually did pretty well the second half, after looking more closely….the Padres were still a 17 games over .500 team around then.   Other than 4 ER against the Dodgers in postseason and one bad start against Pitt (6 ER), it’s not like he fell apart, he just wasn’t as dominant.

 

https://www.espn.com/mlb/player/splits/_/id/32667/kevin-gausman

Look at home vs. away splits.  I would have expected the home games to be his big advantage, but he actually pitched better on the road, compared to his more pitcher-friendly homepark.

[CaliSoxFanViaSWside]

6 hours ago, whitesoxwinner said:

cali I was referring to Southside2k, not you. You have clearly demonstrated the ability to use the internet

Oh I know was just using this for my own edification and for some more info for you  and for those who didn't want to look it up but continue to harass you about it and try to tell you how upset you are and insult you because you refused to kowtow to them specifically SS2K  (Mr.Feelings).

[michelangelosmonkey]

1 hour ago, Chicago White Sox said:

His xFIP was actually lower in the 2nd half than the first half.  He did give up harder contact and more HRs, but the K rate improved and the BB rate was the same.  Not sure there is enough there to be overly concerned.

But why Gausman or Stroman over Rodon?  All three are coming off career years but Rodon was way better....and OK he wore down at the end of the year but that is the same excuse you gave for Gausman's late season failings.   Further...Rodon is a lefty...we go on and on in this board about getting a lefty hitter but having a starting rotation of 5 righties seems a bigger problem.  I still think Rodon is their secret signing.  He hit 99 mph in that playoff game so it's not like his arm was falling off.  I also don't think Rodon gets a mega deal because of the worries of his past.  

I also wonder about Keuchel.  He had a terrible year but he's had a good career...if you are sending $7 million to the Mets in that trade that means you only clear $11 off the books.  OK it's not nothing but I can see a key role for him as your long man and swing starter.  The guy was fifth in Cy Young voting as recently as 2020 and won the gold glove this year.  Maybe he's done but he has always seemed to me like Buehrle...crafty lefty that is a great fielder.   Buehrle had one of his worse years ever at 34...and then followed it up with two of his best years.   Giving away assets makes me nervous.   

 

[CaliSoxFanViaSWside]

4 hours ago, Chicago White Sox said:

So let’s assume the $190M to $200M payroll range for next year is accurate.  How would you feel if the moves below represented our final offseason more or less?

• Graveman = 3/$24M
• Kimbrel to PHI for Segura, Marchan, & Alvarado
• Conforto = 4/$76M
• Keuchel + $7M to NYM for PTBNL
• Gausman = 5/$120M

For just under $200M you’d be rocking something like this:

• Lineup = 1) Moncada, 3B# | 2) Robert, CF | 3) Abreu, 1B | 4) Conforto, RF* | 5) Jimenez, LF | 6) Anderson, SS | 7) Grandal, C# | ? Vaughn, DH | 9) Segura, 2B
• Bench = IF: Gonzalez | OF: Engel | 1B/OF: Sheets* | BC: Marchan
• Rotation = #1: Giolito | #2: Gausman | #3: Lynn | #4: Cease | #5: Kopech
• Bullpen = CL: Hendriks | SU: Bummer* | SU: Graveman | MR: Crochet* | MR: Ruiz | MR: Alvarado* | MR: Burr | LR: Lopez

I don’t love the Segura fit at that price point, but he would greatly improve our infield defense at least and provide some OBP at the bottom of the lineup.  And while I’d prefer Scherzer as a legit ace, I love Gausman as a cheaper alternative if Jerry won’t foot the bill for Max.  The bullpen gives me some concerns on the front-end, so I wouldn’t be against another cheap add there.  But the best part of this plan is we basically keep all our young players and assets, providing much needed depth and ammo for mid-season additions if needed.

I haven't really tackled the idea that Conforto is custom made for the Sox lineup but lets assume he is. Why do you have him signing for 4/$76M ? He's coming off a terrible year. He was slightly better than Andrew Vaughn. If you strip away all the potential, draft pedigree and just look at numbers Burger, Sheets and Billy Hamilton were worth just as much to the Sox as Vaughn was in a lot less playing time if you just go by fWAR.

I understand the hitting LH ,high OPS against RHP ,ok OF'er but what if last year was the kind of years we see going forward? Now I have no idea what it will take to get him. Most publications have him signing a 1 yr. prove it type deal. Prove that you haven't peaked early and are not as bad as you were last year. Teams are massively shifting on Conforto now more than ever before .He's one guy I would be extremely careful with and would approach him perhaps with an incentive laden contract with a base salary of $15M with another $5M in incentives , some which should be tied to PA's that should be easily attainable for a guy getting 500AB and others based on production. Or you can go 1/$18M with a club option for another $20M and a $2M buyout.

I know if there is stiff competition for him that would seem ridiculously low but 4/76 is a bit much. Giving out 4 yr high dollar contracts to a guy who's best years could be behind him would just about finish the Sox. It might also get Vaughn traded or put back in the minors.

If Reinsdorf is willing to get the payroll close to $200M then I'm thinking he'd also like to keep the payroll flexible from year to year which means contracts at less years when patching holes. If the Sox are going to splurge I agree that a TOR pitcher, maybe even Scherzer would be the choice to splurge on. Everyone else should be on minimal years contracts.

 

Edited November 25, 2021 by CaliSoxFanViaSWside
increase his base salary in the incentives contract

[bmags]

10 minutes ago, CaliSoxFanViaSWside said:

I haven't really tackled the idea that Conforto is custom made for the Sox lineup but lets assume he is. Why do you have him signing for 4/$76M ? He's coming off a terrible year. He was slightly better than Andrew Vaughn. If you strip away all the potential, draft pedigree and just look at numbers Burger, Sheets and Billy Hamilton were worth just as much to the Sox as Vaughn was in a lot less playing time if you just go by fWAR.

I understand the hitting LH ,high OPS, against RHP ,ok OF'er but what if last year was the kind of years we see going forward? Now I have no idea what it will take to get him. Most publications have him signing a 1 yr. prove it type deal. Prove that you haven't peaked early and are not as bad as you were last year. Teams are massively shifting on Conforto now more than ever before .He's one guy I would be extremely careful with and would approach him perhaps with an incentive laden contract with a base salary of $10M with another $15M in incentives , some which should be tied to PA's that should be easily attainable for a guy getting 500AB and others based of production. Or you can go 1/$18M with a club option for another $20M and a $2M buyout.

I know if there is stiff competition for him that would seem ridiculously low but 4/76 is a bit much. Giving out 4 yr high dollar contracts to a guy who's best years could be behind him would just about finish the Sox. It might also get Vaughn traded or put back in the minors.

If Reinsdorf is willing to get the payroll close to $200M then I'm thinking he'd also like to keep the payroll flexible from year to year which means contracts at less years when patching holes. If the Sox are going to splurge I agree that a TOR pitcher, maybe even Scherzer would be the choice to splurge on. Everyone else should be on minimal years contracts.

conforto had one terrible month where he struggled with a hamstring injury. He got better as he recovered.

He has been a consistent offensive force the previous three years.

And for those searching for stat sites that will show he’s bad in defense, I’d say a hamstring may have led to some temporary struggles.

[Balta1701]

19 minutes ago, CaliSoxFanViaSWside said:

I haven't really tackled the idea that Conforto is custom made for the Sox lineup but lets assume he is. Why do you have him signing for 4/$76M ? He's coming off a terrible year. He was slightly better than Andrew Vaughn. If you strip away all the potential, draft pedigree and just look at numbers Burger, Sheets and Billy Hamilton were worth just as much to the Sox as Vaughn was in a lot less playing time if you just go by fWAR.

I understand the hitting LH ,high OPS, against RHP ,ok OF'er but what if last year was the kind of years we see going forward? Now I have no idea what it will take to get him. Most publications have him signing a 1 yr. prove it type deal. Prove that you haven't peaked early and are not as bad as you were last year. Teams are massively shifting on Conforto now more than ever before .He's one guy I would be extremely careful with and would approach him perhaps with an incentive laden contract with a base salary of $10M with another $15M in incentives , some which should be tied to PA's that should be easily attainable for a guy getting 500AB and others based of production. Or you can go 1/$18M with a club option for another $20M and a $2M buyout.

I know if there is stiff competition for him that would seem ridiculously low but 4/76 is a bit much. Giving out 4 yr high dollar contracts to a guy who's best years could be behind him would just about finish the Sox. It might also get Vaughn traded or put back in the minors.

If Reinsdorf is willing to get the payroll close to $200M then I'm thinking he'd also like to keep the payroll flexible from year to year which means contracts at less years when patching holes. If the Sox are going to splurge I agree that a TOR pitcher, maybe even Scherzer would be the choice to splurge on. Everyone else should be on minimal years contracts.

Marcel Ozuna got 4/$67 in the middle of the COVID mess. AJ Pollock got 4/$55 with a player option at the end at age 33 with a terrible injury history. Both of those happened with a broken free agent market. If you aren’t prepared to go 4/$76 on Conforto in a year where the market seems to have corrected partially back to normal, your going to end up with “your team is on the field” as soon as you see someone offering Scherzer a 4th year or whatever other seemingly ridiculous contract it takes to get him.

[hi8is]

1 hour ago, CaliSoxFanViaSWside said:

specifically SS2K  (Mr.Feelings).

I resent this… I’m Mr. Feelings and not anyone else. Thanks - now I’ll be crying relentlessly all day.  ?

Edited November 25, 2021 by hi8is

[CaliSoxFanViaSWside]

19 minutes ago, bmags said:

conforto had one terrible month where he struggled with a hamstring injury. He got better as he recovered.

He has been a consistent offensive force the previous three years.

And for those searching for stat sites that will show he’s bad in defense, I’d say a hamstring may have led to some temporary struggles.

 

15 minutes ago, Balta1701 said:

Marcel Ozuna got 4/$67 in the middle of the COVID mess. AJ Pollock got 4/$55 with a player option at the end at age 33 with a terrible injury history. Both of those happened with a broken free agent market. If you aren’t prepared to go 4/$76 on Conforto in a year where the market seems to have corrected partially back to normal, your going to end up with “your team is on the field” as soon as you see someone offering Scherzer a 4th year.

To be clear most of what I am saying is paraphrasing what Ben Clemens of Fangraphs said about Conforto and his market .He went into more detail regarding his hammy and bout with Covid .https://blogs.fangraphs.com/2022-top-50-free-agents/ scroll down to #22 .

I think the Sox might be willing to splurge on 1 high end deal but expecting 2 seems a little over the top for the sake of payroll flexibility.  @Chicago White Sox has the Sox spending close to $200M on a 4 yr. Conforto deal and 5 yr Gausman deal added to the $24M 3 yr deal for Graveman. That's $220M which seems a bit optimistic. Maybe it's closer to $150M or less with a major trade (not counting dumping Kimbrels and Keuchel contracts as major trades unless more pieces are involved ).

[bmags]

57 minutes ago, CaliSoxFanViaSWside said:

 

To be clear most of what I am saying is paraphrasing what Ben Clemens of Fangraphs said about Conforto and his market .He went into more detail regarding his hammy and bout with Covid .https://blogs.fangraphs.com/2022-top-50-free-agents/ scroll down to #22 .

I think the Sox might be willing to splurge on 1 high end deal but expecting 2 seems a little over the top for the sake of payroll flexibility.  @Chicago White Sox has the Sox spending close to $200M on a 4 yr. Conforto deal and 5 yr Gausman deal added to the $24M 3 yr deal for Graveman. That's $220M which seems a bit optimistic. Maybe it's closer to $150M or less with a major trade (not counting dumping Kimbrels and Keuchel contracts as major trades unless more pieces are involved ).

I don’t think much of fangraphs contract predictions, mainly because they seem to ignore the market forces each offseason.

28 y.o. + history of production + LH + most teams competing in a decade to me makes a multi year deal very very likely.

But of the two, I’d say Reinsdorf tendency to hate long term deals with pitchers to be the one to mean no Gausman.

[Chicago White Sox]

1 hour ago, michelangelosmonkey said:

But why Gausman or Stroman over Rodon?  All three are coming off career years but Rodon was way better....and OK he wore down at the end of the year but that is the same excuse you gave for Gausman's late season failings.   Further...Rodon is a lefty...we go on and on in this board about getting a lefty hitter but having a starting rotation of 5 righties seems a bigger problem.  I still think Rodon is their secret signing.  He hit 99 mph in that playoff game so it's not like his arm was falling off.  I also don't think Rodon gets a mega deal because of the worries of his past.  

I also wonder about Keuchel.  He had a terrible year but he's had a good career...if you are sending $7 million to the Mets in that trade that means you only clear $11 off the books.  OK it's not nothing but I can see a key role for him as your long man and swing starter.  The guy was fifth in Cy Young voting as recently as 2020 and won the gold glove this year.  Maybe he's done but he has always seemed to me like Buehrle...crafty lefty that is a great fielder.   Buehrle had one of his worse years ever at 34...and then followed it up with two of his best years.   Giving away assets makes me nervous.   

 

I gave no excuses for Gauman’s second half being worse than his first.  Baseball is a streaky game and given his K & BB didn’t fall off at all I’m not overly concerned.  I do think he needs to tweak his arsenal / usage a bit to avoid relying so much on two pitches and think that’s highly probable under Katz.

As for Rodon, he was amazing this year, but has never been amazing prior, is rumored to have poor drive / conditioning effort, and has an horrible health track with various elbow, shoulder, & bicep ailments.  If our medical team thought his shoulder would hold up next year, then I would have happily QOed in hopes of him accepting it.  But any multi-year deal for me to consider would have to be super team friendly and that seem realistic under Boras.

[Chicago White Sox]

1 hour ago, CaliSoxFanViaSWside said:

I haven't really tackled the idea that Conforto is custom made for the Sox lineup but lets assume he is. Why do you have him signing for 4/$76M ? He's coming off a terrible year. He was slightly better than Andrew Vaughn. If you strip away all the potential, draft pedigree and just look at numbers Burger, Sheets and Billy Hamilton were worth just as much to the Sox as Vaughn was in a lot less playing time if you just go by fWAR.

I understand the hitting LH ,high OPS against RHP ,ok OF'er but what if last year was the kind of years we see going forward? Now I have no idea what it will take to get him. Most publications have him signing a 1 yr. prove it type deal. Prove that you haven't peaked early and are not as bad as you were last year. Teams are massively shifting on Conforto now more than ever before .He's one guy I would be extremely careful with and would approach him perhaps with an incentive laden contract with a base salary of $15M with another $5M in incentives , some which should be tied to PA's that should be easily attainable for a guy getting 500AB and others based on production. Or you can go 1/$18M with a club option for another $20M and a $2M buyout.

I know if there is stiff competition for him that would seem ridiculously low but 4/76 is a bit much. Giving out 4 yr high dollar contracts to a guy who's best years could be behind him would just about finish the Sox. It might also get Vaughn traded or put back in the minors.

If Reinsdorf is willing to get the payroll close to $200M then I'm thinking he'd also like to keep the payroll flexible from year to year which means contracts at less years when patching holes. If the Sox are going to splurge I agree that a TOR pitcher, maybe even Scherzer would be the choice to splurge on. Everyone else should be on minimal years contracts.

 

Because Conforto was dealing with an injury last year and had a good second half.  Beyond that, the dude has an excellent track record from 2017 to 2020 where he was one of the best hitters against RHP in all of baseball.  That elite hitting vs RHP is one of our biggest needs and getting through a guy who can play a solid RF is a plus.  As for the contract amount, he would have gotten a lot more than that if he didn’t have a down year.  Given a fairly week OF market and the fact that GMs don’t typically overreact to single bad years as much as fans, and I think he gets large but not insane contact.  4/$76M feels about right to me, but that’s simply a guess.

[hi8is]

After signing Kendall Graveman to bolster the bullpen, the White Sox are aiming high and looking to now add a second baseman and “a front line starter,” according to USA Today’s Bob Nightengale (via Twitter).  Semien and Robbie Ray are mentioned by name, yet this could indicate that the Sox are just prepared to look at the top of the market to fill their needs, rather than necessarily a specific interest in either of those players.  This is itself notable given that the White Sox payroll is already projected for a new record-high for the team, and spending big on a player like Semien or Ray would take Chicago into luxury tax range for the first time ever.  Semien, of course, is already a familiar figure on the South Side, as spent his first two MLB seasons with the White Sox before being dealt to the Athletics in December 2014.

-MLBTrade Rumors commenting on the tweet from Bob.

Yea, we’re going to rock a ~170M payroll, gang. Thanks Pal. Cool Bud. What say you, Man?

[hi8is]

From the most recent MLBTR Chat:

”

Matt

1:08

Are the White Sox actually going to spend $190 mil in payroll? I don’t see it

 

White Sox

1:08

Why do people think Reinsdorf will be cheap when he is so close to a winner and he is getting pretty old? He wants to win and has the money, prove to me he won't be going after the top class free agents, especially at RF and 2nd.

 

Mark P

1:09

Both sides of this debate have merit.  Reinsdorf has never been one to spend big on his team, though that doesn't mean he couldn't or wouldn't given this special circumstance.  The Sox obviously think they're on the verge of winning another title, so I could see Reinsdorf okaying a splurge for the next year or two.

 

1:10

Also, Abreu/Kimbrel/Keuchel all come off the books after 2022, so it's not like the Sox couldn't drop payroll back a bit next winter if they wanted.

< p> ”

I think “Mark P” would be a good Soxtalk Moderator.

[bmags]

11 minutes ago, hi8is said:

From the most recent MLBTR Chat:

”

Matt

1:08

Are the White Sox actually going to spend $190 mil in payroll? I don’t see it

 

White Sox

1:08

Why do people think Reinsdorf will be cheap when he is so close to a winner and he is getting pretty old? He wants to win and has the money, prove to me he won't be going after the top class free agents, especially at RF and 2nd.

 

Mark P

1:09

Both sides of this debate have merit.  Reinsdorf has never been one to spend big on his team, though that doesn't mean he couldn't or wouldn't given this special circumstance.  The Sox obviously think they're on the verge of winning another title, so I could see Reinsdorf okaying a splurge for the next year or two.

 

1:10

Also, Abreu/Kimbrel/Keuchel all come off the books after 2022, so it's not like the Sox couldn't drop payroll back a bit next winter if they wanted.

< p> ”

I think “Mark P” would be a good Soxtalk Moderator.

I feel threatened

[hi8is]

1 minute ago, bmags said:

I feel threatened

Judging by what a pain in the ass it is sometime, you’d figure it would potentially offer some relief. ?

[ron883]

22 minutes ago, hi8is said:

Judging by what a pain in the ass it is sometime, you’d figure it would potentially offer some relief. ?

Let's be real, bmags doesn't want to give up his Soxtalk moderator stipend. 

[bmags]

Damn right

[southsider2k5]

There is no truth to the rumor that bmags is being fired after his next thread closing.

[Chicago White Sox]

This payroll narrative is funny.  Reinsdorf has consistently spent in the top 10 when in competitive windows and actually top 5 for several years after the 2005 World Series.  I know this may be sound morbid, but I wouldn’t be surprised if the loss of his wife has caused Jerry to realize his clock is ticking and to be slightly more aggressive than just top 10.  And no, I’m not expecting him to do something crazy and go into the luxury tax, but $190M to $200M seems very doable for us.

Edited November 25, 2021 by Chicago White Sox

[hi8is]

25 minutes ago, southsider2k5 said:

There is no truth to the rumor that bmags is being fired after his next thread closing.

I heard he was considering closing that fuzzy Happy Thanksgiving thread since it’s not about the Sox… the gall!

[35thstreetswarm]

I think they’ll be in the 180-190 range at least.  But guess what everybody?  We’ll know for sure…like, really soon.  Chill and watch.

[Balta1701]

7 minutes ago, 35thstreetswarm said:

I think they’ll be in the 180-190 range at least.  But guess what everybody?  We’ll know for sure…like, really soon.  Chill and watch.

I bet it will take longer to know than you are expecting.

[caulfield12]

2 hours ago, bmags said:

I don’t think much of fangraphs contract predictions, mainly because they seem to ignore the market forces each offseason.

28 y.o. + history of production + LH + most teams competing in a decade to me makes a multi year deal very very likely.

But of the two, I’d say Reinsdorf tendency to hate long term deals with pitchers to be the one to mean no Gausman.

29 on Opening Day, which is the last peak season historically for the majority of MLBers without steroids.