2022 Offseason Plan Thread

[soxfan49]

Dylan Bundy signed with Minnesota

[Middle Buffalo]

No point trading Kimbrel now for pennies on the dollar. Hold onto him and see if there is a market in Spring Training or as the season goes on.

And I wouldn’t have hated resigning Hernandez for $4M.

[fathom]

1 minute ago, Middle Buffalo said:

No point trading Kimbrel now for pennies on the dollar. Hold onto him and see if there is a market in Spring Training or as the season goes on.

And I wouldn’t have hated resigning Hernandez for $4M.

Gross

[Two-Gun Pete]

26 minutes ago, Chicago White Sox said:

1. ...from 2017 to 2020...  

2. And I’m still not sure what this -10 runs defense you are referring to is.

3.  Again, prior to last season every major defensive metric had him average or better.  Dude is athletic enough to have been used in CF for 1,137 innings over his career.  He is not a 1B/DH because of one bad, injury riddled defensive year.

1. There's the slice & dice we've come to expect from you. You really need to stop doing that, as we've already stated that his CAREER OPS is very strong. 

2. Here's "DEF" from FANGRAPH'S GLOSSARY. On CONFORTO'S FG PAGE, it's conveniently right next to WAR on the season stats part. Actually, on ALL MLB players' FG page, the positionally-adjusted DEF stat is conveniently next to WAR.

3. Not "every major metric." THIS has him as being 2nd to last on the positionally-adjusted DEF. And he hasn't played CF since 2019. Its not 2019 any more.

22 minutes ago, Chicago White Sox said:

Schwarber was a platoon bat prior to this season.  And his career numbers against RHP are worse than Conforto’s when park adjusted (i.e. wRC+) and are significantly worse if you back out 2021 (which is an outlier year for both guys).  And their defense is not even remotely comparable.

And there you go again, with the slice/dice to finagle viewpoints. 

Schwarbers offensive numbers are improving, while Conforto's have gotten worse, and facts are facts: Schwarber's CAREER OPS numbers [READ: non-sliced/diced] v RHP are better than Conforto's. 

FANGRAPHS has both players as equally-shitty defenders, though Schwarber's -10 DEF comes at LF. That said, both suck at defense, but since we're finagling arguments, Schwarber's arm is plenty good enough to play in right, as he had been a catcher in the past.

Edited December 2, 2021 by Two-Gun Pete

[Chicago White Sox]

1 minute ago, Two-Gun Pete said:

1. There's the slice & dice we've come to expect from you. You really need to stop doing that, as we've already stated that his CAREER OPS is very strong. 

2. Here's "DEF" from FANGRAPH'S GLOSSARY. On CONFORTO'S FG PAGE, it's conveniently right next to WAR on the season stats part. Actually, on ALL MLB players' FG page, the positionally-adjusted DEF stat is conveniently next to WAR.

3. Not "every major metric." THIS has him as being 2nd to last on the positionally-adjusted DEF. And he hasn't played CF since 2019. Its not 2019 any more.

And there you go again, with the slice/dice to finagle viewpoints. 

Schwarbers offensive numbers are improving, while Conforto's have gotten worse, and facts are facts: Schwarber's CAREER numbers [READ: non-sliced/diced] v RHP are better than Conforto's. 

FANGRAPHS has both players as equally-shitty defenders, though Schwarber's -10 DEF comes at LF. That said, both suck at defense, but since we're finagling arguments, Schwarber's arm is plenty good enough to play in right, as he had been a catcher in the past.

There is so much wrong with this post…just so much.  Apparently all that matters when doing analysis is career stats or the prior season.  Nothing else at all allowed.  If you dare present data for any other period of time, perhaps to strip out early development years or an injury plagued season, then you must be “finagling”.  Thank god my employer doesn’t demand such lazy analysis as you do.

[Two-Gun Pete]

16 minutes ago, Chicago White Sox said:

There is so much wrong with this post…just so much.  Apparently all that matters when doing analysis is career stats or the prior season.  Nothing else at all allowed.  If you dare present data for any other period of time, perhaps to strip out early development years or an injury plagued season, then you must be “finagling”.  Thank god my employer doesn’t demand such lazy analysis as you do.

So even your slice & dice needs to be sliced and diced. Got it.

IOW, when Schwarber improves YOY, it's "an outlier," but when Conforto's numbers take a giant shit/decline YOY, it's also "an outlier." Meanwhile, when FG shows that Conforto has sucked at defense in the past 3 seasons, it doesn't count, because years ago he played CF.

This is what we mean by "slice and dice."

 

And thanks. Insults really advance your viewpoint.

Edited December 2, 2021 by Two-Gun Pete

[Tony]

34 minutes ago, Two-Gun Pete said:

So even your slice & dice needs to be sliced and diced. Got it.

IOW, when Schwarber improves YOY, it's "an outlier," but when Conforto's numbers take a giant shit/decline YOY, it's also "an outlier." Meanwhile, when FG shows that Conforto has sucked at defense in the past 3 seasons, it doesn't count, because years ago he played CF.

This is what we mean by "slice and dice."

 

And thanks. Insults really advance your viewpoint.

This coming from a guy who can’t go a post with throwing in a “fucking” or “shitty” 

Those really help hammer home your point as well…

[caulfield12]

7 minutes ago, Tony said:

This coming from a guy who can’t go a post with throwing in a “fucking” or “shitty” 

Those really help hammer home your point as well…

Where are we, the orphanage from The Queen's Gambit?

[Chicago White Sox]

16 minutes ago, Two-Gun Pete said:

So even your slice & dice needs to be sliced and diced. Got it.

IOW, when Schwarber improves YOY, it's "an outlier," but when Conforto's numbers take a giant shit/decline YOY, it's also "an outlier." Meanwhile, when FG shows that Conforto has sucked at defense in the past 3 seasons, it doesn't count, because years ago he played CF.

This is what we mean by "slice and dice."

 

And thanks. Insults really advance your viewpoint.

No idea what your first bullet, but apparently you love your little catch-phrases.

And yes, Kyle Schwarber’s 2021 was an outlier.  His wRC+ of 145 was a career best and 26 points than anything since his rookie year.  You want to argue this is him just improving, but then ignore the season before when he put up a wRC+ of 89 and was non tendered to avoid paying him $10M.  The good news for those of us who don’t base everything on the prior year was that it was likely 2020 was just a down year and he would be better in 2021.  And sure enough he was better, but to a degree that blew his career numbers out of the water.  As such, Steamer projects his wRC+ next year to be at 125, a cool 20 points below his 2021 season.  Clearly I’m not the only one who sees his 2021 season as an outlier.

Meanwhile, Conforto’s wRC+ of 106 last year was 22 points worse than his career average heading into the season and would be even worse if compared against his healthy prime years (2017 to 2020), but I don’t want to be accused of “slicing & dicing” for actually taking context into perspective.  Regardless, we know that Conforto was battling a hamstring injury last year and his numbers got much better in the 2nd half as he got healthier, but we should ignore that context as well since that would be “finagling”.  Funny enough, despite all my evil data manipulation, Steamer projects his wRC+ to be 121 next year, which suggests they also view his 2021 season as an outlier.

And no, Fangraphs doesn’t think his defense sucked the last three years (a period you came up with FYI before you make more accusations).  In both 2019 & 2020 he posted positive UZR/150’s in RF.  He did have a shitty UZR/150 in 2021, but is it crazy to think a hamstring might negatively impact his defense?  Wait sorry, I forgot I’m not allowed to use any critical thinking when doing analysis.  As such, given his defense was really bad last year then clearly it must suck balls into perpetuity.  Everyone knows that one year of defensive metrics are highly predictive right?

[caulfield12]

We can no longer afford Conforto, and Schwarber's going to require moving Sheets/Vaughn/Burger, unless they're willing to go with Jimenez AND Vaughn as the everyday corner outfielders.

No potential for disaster there.

[Dick Allen]

Except for Taylor who went back to his team, every big signing was by a team that didn't make the playoffs. The unio s biggest complaint was the amount of teams not trying to win. It looks like this week's flurry was aimed at that.

[Jerksticks]

Just now, Dick Allen said:

Except for Taylor who went back to his team, every big signing was by a team that didn't make the playoffs. The unio s biggest complaint was the amount of teams not trying to win. It looks like this week's flurry was aimed at that.

Yea that’s really interesting.   None of the good teams did much of anything.  I wonder if we were actually one of the more active good teams, signing Leury and Graveman.  
 

Wouldn’t that be a big funny sausage slap in the face 

[ron883]

2 hours ago, Two-Gun Pete said:

As Michael Conforto's biggest fan on these boards, I thought I'd approach you on your thread. [If this has already been covered, I apologize.]

In thinking about the RF position, I think that one area that can be under-appreciated is the defensive side of things. I think that one issue with this team's OF as a whole is that there are too many non-OFers trying to play OF; if you like, too many DH/1B types that this team has playing deep, so as to hide their defensive flaws. [THINK: Sheets/Vaughn/Jimenez, and how these three play "no doubles" deep like, all the time, because they suck at defense.]

 

So, in turning to Conforto, I noted that fangraphs doesn't THINK MUCH OF HIS DEFENSE. A -10 on DEF means that he gives up 1 full win through his defense alone. To COMPARE HIM TO HIS CONTEMPORARIES, fangraphs has him as being worse defensively than our old friends Nomar Mazara and Adam Eaton since 2019. In fact, the defensive numbers kinda make him look like yet another DH/1B type, only LHH. 

 

That said, why do we want a guy who looks like another DH/1B type, based on the numbers and projections? A DH/1B type with all of 14 HRs last season, an increasing GB% over the past 3 seasons, and an injury history? 

 

Thanks in advance.

I'm calling shenanigans on this. While I would like to lay claim to this title, our guy @ChiSox59 has been driving the Conforto train longer than anybody here. We will get Conforto and it will be glorious. It makes too much damn sense. 

[ThatBallHitDeep_WAYBack]

Still on the table is…?  Looking at present availability in the market and Sox needs.
 

2B - Story signing (Long Shot).  Ketel Marte (Ideal Scenario) or Nick Solak (This would be a Sox move to buy low on a former 2nd Rounder) trade.  

RF - Castellanos or Conforto.  Long Shot Bryant.

Relief - Tepera.

SP - Knowing Sox, they will take a flyer on an innings eater, if anyone.  Otherwise, trade with Oakland. 

RE MC - If the Sox are a perfect fit for Conforto, why hasn’t he signed yet?  Doesn’t add up to me.

[ChiSox59]

1 hour ago, ron883 said:

I'm calling shenanigans on this. While I would like to lay claim to this title, our guy @ChiSox59 has been driving the Conforto train longer than anybody here. We will get Conforto and it will be glorious. It makes too much damn sense. 

Yes sir. Best FA fit since Yaz. Hope we can make it happen. Makes finishing the roster so so so much easier. And he’s a good ball player. 

[Two-Gun Pete]

2 hours ago, Tony said:

This coming from a guy who can’t go a post with throwing in a “fucking” or “shitty” 

Those really help hammer home your point as well…

Hey, thats fair. I do curse too much over here, although I don't direct it at my peers here.

I save it for the FO, whenever they do stupid shit.

[ShoeLessRob]

Having 14 million tied to a failed set up pitcher really sucks. 

[Two-Gun Pete]

2 hours ago, Chicago White Sox said:

No idea what your first bullet, but apparently you love your little catch-phrases.

Wait sorry, I forgot I’m not allowed to use any critical thinking when doing analysis.

See, what you do isn't "analysis, its cherry-picking. And then attempt to subsume each post with a wall of text.

Whether its you telling us that Kimbrel was good in "54% of his IP since coming to Chicago," or telling us that (years ago), "Conforto played CF, it isn't really "analysis."

You may not like Fangraphs' DEF as a point of data, but there it is: Conforto being among the worst at the position over multiple years.

[Two-Gun Pete]

1 hour ago, ron883 said:

I'm calling shenanigans on this. While I would like to lay claim to this title, our guy @ChiSox59 has been driving the Conforto train longer than anybody here. We will get Conforto and it will be glorious. It makes too much damn sense. 

Yeah, his DEF gives me reason to pause:

On the one hand, Conforto's bat should be a fit, if he adjusts to a new league and he bounces back a bit. OTOH, if his defense is as projected, he could also be another 1B/DH type.

IOW, his bat should be a solution, if he doesn't follow the other NL bats that took a shit here, but if he can't field his position, he could be a problem for this roster as well.

 

 

That said, if you were to attack me over Conforto, while cherry-picking stats, and posting vomit-piles of texts at me, I'd give you the title as Conforto's biggest fan here.

Work on that, Ron.

Edited December 2, 2021 by Two-Gun Pete

[Chicago White Sox]

25 minutes ago, Two-Gun Pete said:

See, what you do isn't "analysis, its cherry-picking. And then attempt to subsume each post with a wall of text.

Whether its you telling us that Kimbrel was good in "54% of his IP since coming to Chicago," or telling us that (years ago), "Conforto played CF, it isn't really "analysis."

You may not like Fangraphs' DEF as a point of data, but there it is: Conforto being among the worst at the position over multiple years.

Based on the “cherry picked” three year period you selected.  What happened to using career numbers to avoid all that manipulative “slicing & dicing”?  Pretty sure that would put his UZR/150 at like -1.2 in RF, which is slightly below average.  But please keep being a walking contradiction whenever is suits you buddy.  Also, not sure what the “Conforto played CF” comment is in regard to, but if you can’t understand the dude has significantly more athleticism than true 1B/DH types like Vaughn & Sheets then god bless you.

And I find it fascinating you still don’t get this Kimbrel stuff, but I’ve wasted too much time on that argument.  You are so angry about that trade and incapable at peeling the onion without somehow thinking it’s “cherry picking” that my point will never click with you.

[ChiliIrishHammock24]

On 11/18/2021 at 12:08 PM, ChiliIrishHammock24 said:

You think Hill only gets $4M? I was figuring based off of his last season he was probably more of a $8-10M arm.

@bmags

Hill just got $5M base salary, with up to $8M if he pitches 160+ IP.

[Chicago White Sox]

35 minutes ago, Two-Gun Pete said:

Yeah, his DEF gives me reason to pause:

On the one hand, Conforto's bat should be a fit, if he adjusts to a new league and he bounces back a bit. OTOH, if his defense is as projected, he could also be another 1B/DH type.

IOW, his bat should be a solution, if he doesn't follow the other NL bats that took a shit here, but if he can't field his position, he could be a problem for this roster as well.

 

 

That said, if you were to attack me over Conforto, while cherry-picking stats, and posting vomit-piles of texts at me, I'd give you the title as Conforto's biggest fan here.

Work on that, Ron.

Vomit piles of text…????.  Man reading three whole paragraphs consisting of three to seven sentences must be really tough.  I’m guessing you were a real wizard in school.

[The Beast]

1 hour ago, ThatBallHitDeep_WAYBack said:

Still on the table is…?  Looking at present availability in the market and Sox needs.
 

2B - Story signing (Long Shot).  Ketel Marte (Ideal Scenario) or Nick Solak (This would be a Sox move to buy low on a former 2nd Rounder) trade.  

RF - Castellanos or Conforto.  Long Shot Bryant.

Relief - Tepera.

SP - Knowing Sox, they will take a flyer on an innings eater, if anyone.  Otherwise, trade with Oakland. 

RE MC - If the Sox are a perfect fit for Conforto, why hasn’t he signed yet?  Doesn’t add up to me.

It doesn’t add up to me that they are unwilling to spend some money on the holes they have to try and get better. Trading assets doesn’t really help unless they deal from a position of strength. From knowing this ownership, cash is limited, but isn’t it better to spend that versus prospect capital?

They still need two starting pitchers, a relief pitcher, a second baseman and right fielder and they don’t need platoons since those have been tried before and didn’t work out. The clock is ticking…even if there is a lockout holding the clock in place.

[Leonard Zelig]

3 hours ago, caulfield12 said:

Where are we, the orphanage from The Queen's Gambit?

They left the molestation out of the show. 

[Two-Gun Pete]

1 hour ago, Chicago White Sox said:

Vomit piles of text…????.  Man reading three whole paragraphs consisting of three to seven sentences must be really tough.  I’m guessing you were a real wizard in school.

Indeed. I'm capable of sharing more cogent thought than you, without the vomit-pile.