Sox to talk about Semien with Boras

[Chicago White Sox]

7 minutes ago, bmags said:

It seems like we may have some real baseball movement to chew on before the lockout

I was reading this article earlier and thinking this is probably the Sox’s way of thinking.  We know they like to move fast under normal circumstances, but this offseason places additional incentives to get your guy early if possible.

[Balta1701]

17 minutes ago, bmags said:

It seems like we may have some real baseball movement to chew on before the lockout

I’d guess the contracts have to be enormous for this to go down like that.

[fathom]

Just now, Balta1701 said:

I’d guess the contracts have to be enormous for this to go down like that.

From all accounts, they will be.  300 million for Seager seems insane.  My prediction is Yankees for Seager and Mariners for Semien.

[bmags]

5 minutes ago, fathom said:

From all accounts, they will be.  300 million for Seager seems insane.  My prediction is Yankees for Seager and Mariners for Semien.

The injury history definitely seems like it should be a bigger drag but who knows.

Hey let's hope Colson Montgomery hits because now we can see how freakin valuable a big, left-hand shortstop can be (and, you know, one that had an MVP type year).

Yanks obviously had some similar tendencies as us, so they are gonna get the best the market has to offer.

[Bob Sacamano]

31 minutes ago, Chicago White Sox said:

I was reading this article earlier and thinking this is probably the Sox’s way of thinking.  We know they like to move fast under normal circumstances, but this offseason places additional incentives to get your guy early if possible.

Yeah and as (I think) bmags pointed out the other day, there should be more teams looking to compete and spend (not great for teams that rarely spend too dollar like us) than recent off seasons so that may cause some early movement.

[bmags]

Fun thing Kiley Mcdaniel just posted, unlike in other offseasons - this one has a deadline of sorts. Even though it doesn't end your offseason, we can see just how much imposing one can impact team decisionmaking. I'm looking forward to this, a nice test for some recent discussions around improving the offseason.

[Balta1701]

49 minutes ago, fathom said:

From all accounts, they will be.  300 million for Seager seems insane.  My prediction is Yankees for Seager and Mariners for Semien.

Just remember that if MLB’s market is functioning, deals should seem insane. Without COVID, revenue was going up 7-8% a year. If you took Machado’s deal and increased it by 8% a year, it’s $375 million now. 

[southsider2k5]

1 hour ago, Balta1701 said:

I’d guess the contracts have to be enormous for this to go down like that.

Or they are getting advice that big contracts may not happen after the new CBA, or at least not as big as now.

[bmags]

16 minutes ago, southsider2k5 said:

Or they are getting advice that big contracts may not happen after the new CBA, or at least not as big as now.

I think this is possible.

The players demands may boost the median mlb player at the expense of the star mlb player (like in the NBA). 

If things like team control are reduced and players hit free agency sooner, players like semien likely have less leverage than now. Interesting point.

[raBBit]

1 hour ago, Balta1701 said:

Just remember that if MLB’s market is functioning, deals should seem insane. Without COVID, revenue was going up 7-8% a year. If you took Machado’s deal and increased it by 8% a year, it’s $375 million now. 

MLB Revenue was down 65% in 2020 why would you continue to increase by 8%? Also, the luxury tax number doesn't go up directly with revenue so why would you expect spending to?

[Jerksticks]

1 hour ago, southsider2k5 said:

Or they are getting advice that big contracts may not happen after the new CBA, or at least not as big as now.

Possible but there’s HUGE upward pressure in wages right now.  Does that spill over into a tiny economy like MLB?

 

I’d think so since they purchase the same stuff the rest of us do.  Plus yachts

[Balta1701]

25 minutes ago, raBBit said:

MLB Revenue was down 65% in 2020 why would you continue to increase by 8%? Also, the luxury tax number doesn't go up directly with revenue so why would you expect spending to?

You see the part where I said "Without COVID"? You realize that 2020 was "COVID" right? I wasn't exactly unclear about this, I was drawing an imaginary "Non-COVID" trendline following revenue growth over the last decade and saying where contracts would be if they had kept up. Which could actually be quite relevant if COVID was an isolated blip and revenues return to the long-term trend line next year, which is a decent assumption.

[raBBit]

51 minutes ago, Balta1701 said:

You see the part where I said "Without COVID"? You realize that 2020 was "COVID" right? I wasn't exactly unclear about this, I was drawing an imaginary "Non-COVID" trendline following revenue growth over the last decade and saying where contracts would be if they had kept up. Which could actually be quite relevant if COVID was an isolated blip and revenues return to the long-term trend line next year, which is a decent assumption.

I am confused why you were applying a trend that was broken but whatever. Not sure what the point of going into "if COVID never happened" when it already happened. 

[Two-Gun Pete]

6 hours ago, Chicago White Sox said:

Why is Conforto unlikely to sign here?

More like the SOX are unlikely to sign him. At the moment, Conforto is being pursued by his current team (NYM), the Braves, the Phillies, and possibly, the Brewers.

The SOX tend to do their best work with top FA when there isn't as much competition; the brewers didn't seem to do much to re-sign Grandal, and it was supposedly between the SOX and the (snicker) reds, for example.

Conforto doesn't match this FO's M.O, in my view. There are too many other teams interested, the salary structure won't support a longer-term deal, and Boras doesn't give out discounts.

I'd be happy to be wrong, but IMO, Conforto is unlikely to sign here. 

6 hours ago, Y2Jimmy0 said:

This isn't true. Levine definitely has really bad opinions but he has legit sources built up over like 50 years in the game. 

When was the last time Levine reported anything that was interesting, as it pertains to our SOX? 

Levine sucks, as do much of the local media when it comes to covering MLB, and specifically, the SOX. Levine openly cheers from the press box for his beloved cubs. He's barely better than Mike Kiley when it comes to impartiality and professionalism.

[hi8is]

8 minutes ago, Two-Gun Pete said:

the brewers didn't seem to do much to re-sign Grandal

I thought I recall the Brewers offering him a very similar contract that was just a couple million below what we ended up closing him on.

[GradMc]

If the Sox are in win now mode with all those guys in their mid 20's that's telling me Reinsdorf has no intention of ponying up the kind of money to not keep the core in tact but to augment with vetted difference makers. 

They've never been in any kind of win-centric mode.

CWS weren"t remotely the favorites to win in 2005.

Capturing lightening in a bottle started with the Ellis Burke trade and now it's the corporate mantra.  

[Two-Gun Pete]

18 hours ago, hi8is said:

I thought I recall the Brewers offering him a very similar contract that was just a couple million below what we ended up closing him on.

Our recollections aside, Grandal's current AAV is equal to what he signed for over 1 year in Milwaukee. If the Brewers offered him a pay cut over multiple years as you suggested, then to me, that isn't much of an effort to retain him. 

[Chicago White Sox]

47 minutes ago, Two-Gun Pete said:

Our recollections aside, Grandal's current AAV is equal to what he signed for over 1 year in Milwaukee. If the Brewers offered him a pay cut over multiple years as you suggested, then to me, that isn't much of an effort to retain him. 

Generally speaking, you don’t think guys typically make more on a one year basis than a long-term deal?  And especially when talking about an aging catcher?

[bmags]

1 hour ago, Two-Gun Pete said:

Our recollections aside, Grandal's current AAV is equal to what he signed for over 1 year in Milwaukee. If the Brewers offered him a pay cut over multiple years as you suggested, then to me, that isn't much of an effort to retain him. 

The Brewers could afford him in 2019 Because Yellich was making under $10 mill. It was a surprise they could add Yaz at the time. Arb salary growth is a thing.

That they couldn’t sign him long term isn’t really interesting. The Brewers and Dodgers are smart orgs, it’s a wonder those idiots wanted this guy in the first place IMO 

[Two-Gun Pete]

3 hours ago, Chicago White Sox said:

Generally speaking, you don’t think guys typically make more on a one year basis than a long-term deal?  And especially when talking about an aging catcher?

See the bolded below.

3 hours ago, bmags said:

The Brewers could afford him in 2019 Because Yellich was making under $10 mill. It was a surprise they could add Yaz at the time. Arb salary growth is a thing.

That they couldn’t sign him long term isn’t really interesting. The Brewers and Dodgers are smart orgs, it’s a wonder those idiots wanted this guy in the first place IMO 

Yes they are smart orgs. But any decent player is worthwhile, at the right price, for the right duration, (EDIT) and at the right timing of a team's competitive window.

 

As it pertains to the SOX, I don't believe that either of Semien or Conforto will come at a price that makes sense for their salary structure. If Semien or Conforto "really, really" wanted to win, and would come for a cheap short term deal? Yeah, they'd both make a fuckton of sense.

But here's the thing:

Players don't hire Boras to be charitable to MLB orgs. They hire Boras, so that they can make every fucking dollar they can extract from the market.

Edited November 13, 2021 by Two-Gun Pete

[bmags]

3 minutes ago, Two-Gun Pete said:

See the bolded below.

Yes they are smart orgs. But any decent player is worthwhile, at the right price, for the right duration.

 

As it pertains to the SOX, I don't believe that either of Semien or Conforto will come at a price that makes sense for their salary structure. If Semien or Conforto "really, really" wanted to win, and would come for a cheap short term deal? Yeah, they'd both make a fuckton of sense.

But here's the thing:

Players don't hire Boras to be charitable to MLB orgs. They hire Boras, so that they can make every fucking dollar they can extract from the market.

Well yes I think the sox are going to be blindsided by operating in a market that is suddenly not 3-4 teams deep but 10-12, and the sox seem to hate prolonged negotiation so I just don't see their strike quick price being near enough to entice the FAs.

[Two-Gun Pete]

1 minute ago, bmags said:

Well yes I think the sox are going to be blindsided by operating in a market that is suddenly not 3-4 teams deep but 10-12, and the sox seem to hate prolonged negotiation so I just don't see their strike quick price being near enough to entice the FAs.

Agreed. Now, if this org had had, say a ~2-ish fWAR 2B, controllable for awhile at the league minimum, then yes:

We could maybe squint and see a way for this org to pony up the cash to secure a solid RFer.

Alas, we now will have to pay what, $5-6MM to get a ~2-ish fWAR 2B, AND most likely, send some cash with Kimbrel to get any sort of return. (See, the rest of MLB already know that RH is desperate to move Kimbrell, so he's got jack and shit in terms of negotiating leverage.)

Throw in arb raises to other players, and suddenly, this org is up against their likely budgetary restraints.

There's also the item of replacing a SP (if Kopech can't do it), or finding another high leverage reliever to replace Kopech. Oh, and BTW, we need players that are capable vs RHP, preferably LHH.

Tons of fun here.

[hi8is]

11 minutes ago, Two-Gun Pete said:

There's also the item of replacing a SP (if Kopech can't do it),

What indication is there that Kopech won’t be a successful starter?

[Two-Gun Pete]

9 minutes ago, hi8is said:

What indication is there that Kopech won’t be a successful starter?

How many IP do you think he'll get to next year? Especially, since they did jack and shit to start stretching him out in 2021?

[hi8is]

1 minute ago, Two-Gun Pete said:

How many IP do you think he'll get to next year? Especially, since they did jack and shit to start stretching him out in 2021?

I’d say 100 - 120 is a reasonable range to target… they’ll need rotation depth for sure but there’s no indication that he won’t succeed.