Sox to talk about Semien with Boras

[Two-Gun Pete]

6 minutes ago, hi8is said:

I’d say 100 - 120 is a reasonable range to target… they’ll need rotation depth for sure but there’s no indication that he won’t succeed.

And where will they get the other ~60-80 IP from his spot in the rotation, assuming he doesn't (once again) get injured?

And, as I mentioned, there will be additional cost to find either another SP, or another high leverage RP.

[hi8is]

36 minutes ago, Two-Gun Pete said:

And where will they get the other ~60-80 IP from his spot in the rotation, assuming he doesn't (once again) get injured?

And, as I mentioned, there will be additional cost to find either another SP, or another high leverage RP.

Yea - my question wasn’t to that portion of your statement… rather I was focusing on your question of if he will be a success in our rotation.

[Two-Gun Pete]

4 minutes ago, hi8is said:

Yea - my question wasn’t to that portion of your statement… rather I was focusing on your question of if he will be a success in our rotation.

No doubt, I agree that Kopech has ability. But the most important ability is AVAILability, and whether its due to an IP limit, or injury, Kopech has a few challenges to fight through.

 

Meanwhile, this org has to find a 2B and a high leverage RP, instead of having two guys on the league minimum at these spots. Let's do the math:

Heuer and Madrigal were on $600k/yr. Assuming that they could be league average at their position, what would it take in equivalent FA salary to replace them?

I'd guess ~$5-6MM for a ~2 WAR 2B to replace Madrigal, and ~$5-6MM to replace Heuer.

Now, add in the fact that the entire baseball world KNOWS that RH is desperate to ship Kimbrel out the door. To get ANYTHING in return in trade, because RH has ZERO leverage to trade Kimbrell, I'm guessing that the SOX will have to eat some of th $16MM he's owed. Let's assume it'll be ~$10MM of Kimbrel's contract.

Taking the ~$10MM squandered to replace league minimum cromulent pieces, PLUS a theoretical ~$10 squandered on Kimbrel gives us ~$20MM that could have been spent to upgrade other holes.

Without that trade last year, Conforto could possibly fit into the salary structure of this org, using the hypothetical I listed above. Or if not Conforto, then perhaps a SP upgrade.

Fun times with arithmetic.

[caulfield12]

1 hour ago, Two-Gun Pete said:

No doubt, I agree that Kopech has ability. But the most important ability is AVAILability, and whether its due to an IP limit, or injury, Kopech has a few challenges to fight through.

 

Meanwhile, this org has to find a 2B and a high leverage RP, instead of having two guys on the league minimum at these spots. Let's do the math:

Heuer and Madrigal were on $600k/yr. Assuming that they could be league average at their position, what would it take in equivalent FA salary to replace them?

I'd guess ~$5-6MM for a ~2 WAR 2B to replace Madrigal, and ~$5-6MM to replace Heuer.

Now, add in the fact that the entire baseball world KNOWS that RH is desperate to ship Kimbrel out the door. To get ANYTHING in return in trade, because RH has ZERO leverage to trade Kimbrell, I'm guessing that the SOX will have to eat some of th $16MM he's owed. Let's assume it'll be ~$10MM of Kimbrel's contract.

Taking the ~$10MM squandered to replace league minimum cromulent pieces, PLUS a theoretical ~$10 squandered on Kimbrel gives us ~$20MM that could have been spent to upgrade other holes.

Without that trade last year, Conforto could possibly fit into the salary structure of this org, using the hypothetical I listed above. Or if not Conforto, then perhaps a SP upgrade.

Fun times with arithmetic.

If he gives up more than $5-6 million to trade Kimbrel, picking up the option will go down as a massive mistake compounded TWICE.

[Two-Gun Pete]

4 minutes ago, caulfield12 said:

If he gives up more than $5-6 million to trade Kimbrel, picking up the option will go down as a massive mistake compounded TWICE.

And you could be right. But exactly WHO in MLB believes that RH has any plans to keep Kimbrel, and have a ~$30MM closer tandem?

By extension, exactly what negotiating leverage would RH have in trading Kimbrel? Especially after he shit himself with us, and has been almost as frequently bad as he has been good in recent years?

Oh, and all of this at his age 33 (will be 34 next May), during a labor negotiation.

 

If RH can move Kimbrel without giving up $5-6MM, AND he gets something useful in return, I'd be happy to give him credit. But I'm having a hard time seeing any of this taking place, given all of the above factors working against him.

 

[ron883]

20 minutes ago, Two-Gun Pete said:

And you could be right. But exactly WHO in MLB believes that RH has any plans to keep Kimbrel, and have a ~$30MM closer tandem?

By extension, exactly what negotiating leverage would RH have in trading Kimbrel? Especially after he shit himself with us, and has been almost as frequently bad as he has been good in recent years?

Oh, and all of this at his age 33 (will be 34 next May), during a labor negotiation.

 

If RH can move Kimbrel without giving up $5-6MM, AND he gets something useful in return, I'd be happy to give him credit. But I'm having a hard time seeing any of this taking place, given all of the above factors working against him.

 

They should have just cut their loses and used that money for a damn 2B or RFer. It's mind boggling. 

[SonofaRoache]

20 minutes ago, ron883 said:

They should have just cut their loses and used that money for a damn 2B or RFer. It's mind boggling. 

I think Hahn is panicking because he traded Madrigal. I would have cut Kimbrel and signed Semien or Story etc. Would have eased some sting of that trade. 

[hi8is]

2 hours ago, Two-Gun Pete said:

No doubt, I agree that Kopech has ability. But the most important ability is AVAILability, and whether its due to an IP limit, or injury, Kopech has a few challenges to fight through.

 

Meanwhile, this org has to find a 2B and a high leverage RP, instead of having two guys on the league minimum at these spots. Let's do the math:

Heuer and Madrigal were on $600k/yr. Assuming that they could be league average at their position, what would it take in equivalent FA salary to replace them?

I'd guess ~$5-6MM for a ~2 WAR 2B to replace Madrigal, and ~$5-6MM to replace Heuer.

Now, add in the fact that the entire baseball world KNOWS that RH is desperate to ship Kimbrel out the door. To get ANYTHING in return in trade, because RH has ZERO leverage to trade Kimbrell, I'm guessing that the SOX will have to eat some of th $16MM he's owed. Let's assume it'll be ~$10MM of Kimbrel's contract.

Taking the ~$10MM squandered to replace league minimum cromulent pieces, PLUS a theoretical ~$10 squandered on Kimbrel gives us ~$20MM that could have been spent to upgrade other holes.

Without that trade last year, Conforto could possibly fit into the salary structure of this org, using the hypothetical I listed above. Or if not Conforto, then perhaps a SP upgrade.

Fun times with arithmetic.

You’re preaching to the choir as far as you should be concerned with me… though, I guess that’s what the off-season is for at this point:

Saying the same things to each other over and over again.

[Balta1701]

1 minute ago, hi8is said:

You’re preaching to the choir as far as you should be concerned with me… though, I guess that’s what the off-season is for at this point:

Saying the same things to each other over and over again.

This'll get way more fun after December 1.

Might be only my definition of fun though.

[hi8is]

1 minute ago, Balta1701 said:

This'll get way more fun after December 1.

Might be only my definition of fun though.

[Balta1701]

3 hours ago, Two-Gun Pete said:

And where will they get the other ~60-80 IP from his spot in the rotation, assuming he doesn't (once again) get injured?

And, as I mentioned, there will be additional cost to find either another SP, or another high leverage RP.

One obvious candidate is Reynaldo Lopez. However, I fully agree they need an option beyond that, basically everyone in the final 2 rounds of the playoffs was onto their 7th starter, and if they didn't have one it was a complete bullpen game. It is possible they could use Crochet to do some of that if they actually pushed him to become a starter and tried to get him 100+ innings this year, if they were looking at solely internal options - but that could also mean they need an extra LHP in the bullpen.

[hi8is]

1 hour ago, SonofaRoache said:

Would have eased some sting of that trade. 

If they sign Semien, I promise to never bring up Madrigal ever again. You hear my @rickhahn?

[caulfield12]

2 hours ago, Balta1701 said:

One obvious candidate is Reynaldo Lopez. However, I fully agree they need an option beyond that, basically everyone in the final 2 rounds of the playoffs was onto their 7th starter, and if they didn't have one it was a complete bullpen game. It is possible they could use Crochet to do some of that if they actually pushed him to become a starter and tried to get him 100+ innings this year, if they were looking at solely internal options - but that could also mean they need an extra LHP in the bullpen.

Severino will save the day…OR, we’ll have one of those miraculous seasons when something like 2012 when 13 rookies (predominantly pitchers) contributed, although I doubt our system was consensus bottom 5 at that point.  Would have to look it up.

[Two-Gun Pete]

15 hours ago, ron883 said:

They should have just cut their loses and used that money for a damn 2B or RFer. It's mind boggling. 

I understand where you're coming from. 

But, even though I would have fucking fired all those fucking mouth breathing morons in the front office years ago, I'll give them the benefit of the doubt:

IF they can miracle their way into getting something for a 33 year old closer in decline who can't pitch in any other situation other than closing, and who is on a $16MM contract, during a MLB labor re-negotiation, while the entirety of the industry KNOWS they need to trade him, then I'll be happy to throw roses their way.

IF, however, all they get is salary relief and a low A/dominican Winter league lottery ticket, then I think we should all rightly give RH/KW yet another round of critique that they would richly deserve.

Let's see first.

[Balta1701]

5 minutes ago, Two-Gun Pete said:

I understand where you're coming from. 

But, even though I would have fucking fired all those fucking mouth breathing morons in the front office years ago, I'll give them the benefit of the doubt:

IF they can miracle their way into getting something for a 33 year old closer in decline who can't pitch in any other situation other than closing, and who is on a $16MM contract, during a MLB labor re-negotiation, while the entirety of the industry KNOWS they need to trade him, then I'll be happy to throw roses their way.

IF, however, all they get is salary relief and a low A/dominican Winter league lottery ticket, then I think we should all rightly give RH/KW yet another round of critique that they would richly deserve.

Let's see first.

If the salary relief is the full $16 million then they did ok.

[SpringfieldFan]

15 hours ago, Two-Gun Pete said:

And you could be right. But exactly WHO in MLB believes that RH has any plans to keep Kimbrel, and have a ~$30MM closer tandem?

By extension, exactly what negotiating leverage would RH have in trading Kimbrel? Especially after he shit himself with us, and has been almost as frequently bad as he has been good in recent years?

Oh, and all of this at his age 33 (will be 34 next May), during a labor negotiation.

 

If RH can move Kimbrel without giving up $5-6MM, AND he gets something useful in return, I'd be happy to give him credit. But I'm having a hard time seeing any of this taking place, given all of the above factors working against him.

 

At this point maybe they should just keep Kimbrel and move him into lower leverage middle relief and see if they can rehabilitate him into something of value either to them or another team. Currently as he is he is of  zero value on the market. That means closing days are potentially over for him but he might be agreeable to that since at 34 it might be time for him to retool a bit.

[Two-Gun Pete]

14 hours ago, Balta1701 said:

One obvious candidate is Reynaldo Lopez. However, I fully agree they need an option beyond that, basically everyone in the final 2 rounds of the playoffs was onto their 7th starter, and if they didn't have one it was a complete bullpen game. It is possible they could use Crochet to do some of that if they actually pushed him to become a starter and tried to get him 100+ innings this year, if they were looking at solely internal options - but that could also mean they need an extra LHP in the bullpen.

Here's hoping that ReyLo's adjustments stick, and that he can produce this year. I wished that they had sent Kopech and Crochet down to start getting them stretched out to start last season.

I also wish that they would sign another RP, so that Crochet can work on a 3rd offering, and get stretched out THIS year. 

[Two-Gun Pete]

3 minutes ago, Balta1701 said:

If the salary relief is the full $16 million then they did ok.

So, in that case, in exchange for 10 years of control over 2 players (that are @ the MLB minimum salary), PLUS whatever they paid Kimbrel, this org would get a 4.56 FIP, ZERO help for the lineup vs RHP, and ZERO solutions for RF/2B.

In other words, you'd accept a punt as being a good outcome here?

2 minutes ago, SpringfieldFan said:

At this point maybe they should just keep Kimbrel and move him into lower leverage middle relief and see if they can rehabilitate him into something of value either to them or another team. Currently as he is he is of  zero value on the market. That means closing days are potentially over for him but he might be agreeable to that since at 34 it might be time for him to retool a bit.

But the fly in the ointment is that Kimbrel sucked out loud in non-save situations, TLR admitted the same, and this coaching staff did jack and shit about it since Kimbrel took a shit on this team's chances.

Plus, as Chicago White Sox told us, he's only been good in "54% of his IP" in recent years, while his obese salary consumes budget space that could be better used for more pressing needs. (Like EVERYDAY PLAYERS instead of RPs.)

I guess we now know why I hated the Kimbrel trade from conception...

I hope RH can miracle his way through this one somehow.

[Balta1701]

1 minute ago, Two-Gun Pete said:

So, in that case, in exchange for 10 years of control over 2 players (that are @ the MLB minimum salary), PLUS whatever they paid Kimbrel, this org would get a 4.56 FIP, ZERO help for the lineup vs RHP, and ZERO solutions for RF/2B.

In other words, you'd accept a punt as being a good outcome here?

Yes. They gambled and lost on the trade deadline deal. The previous deal cannot and does not affect how you value him now. They bet they could move him without having to include a ton of money. We will see if they read the market and CBA correctly.

[caulfield12]

21 minutes ago, SpringfieldFan said:

At this point maybe they should just keep Kimbrel and move him into lower leverage middle relief and see if they can rehabilitate him into something of value either to them or another team. Currently as he is he is of  zero value on the market. That means closing days are potentially over for him but he might be agreeable to that since at 34 it might be time for him to retool a bit.

If he continues to struggle, you’re out more or less $8-10 million and you’ve forgone the opportunity to fix lots of overhanging issues coming into the season due to that $16 million being unavailable…good ‘ol opportunity cost raises its ugly head. 
 

And if he was pitching outstandingly but you realize you can’t afford two closers anymore…why bother to do it for just two months in 2021, as you were selling everyone on Kimbrel and Hernandez being 2021-22 additions as well?  So now we  turn around and blow up that front office assessment in order to acquire exactly which players with bad contracts on uncompetitive teams you could have had for salary relief alone, and not forced the spending of another $10-12 million to replace Madrigal and Heuer with these underachieving but more expensive veterans? 

Because you can be sure no fellow contending AL team will give the White Sox a boatload of talent ready to contribute to the 2022 playoff race for Kimbrel…and most NL team wouldn’t either.  And the non contenders would have zero interest in a past his prime $16 million closer.

Edited November 14, 2021 by caulfield12

[Two-Gun Pete]

5 minutes ago, Balta1701 said:

Yes. They gambled and lost on the trade deadline deal. The previous deal cannot and does not affect how you value him now. They bet they could move him without having to include a ton of money. We will see if they read the market and CBA correctly.

Yeah, I fear you may be right.

I just didn't want him (firstly) because no one can show me how Craig Kimbrel was going to improve the OF defense, how a closer would help the lineup vs tough RHP, or would solve a hole at 2B.

Beyond that, there are other issues insofar as why trading for Kimbrel was moronic, but yes, I hope they read the market correctly as well.

[SpringfieldFan]

7 minutes ago, Two-Gun Pete said:

So, in that case, in exchange for 10 years of control over 2 players (that are @ the MLB minimum salary), PLUS whatever they paid Kimbrel, this org would get a 4.56 FIP, ZERO help for the lineup vs RHP, and ZERO solutions for RF/2B.

In other words, you'd accept a punt as being a good outcome here?

But the fly in the ointment is that Kimbrel sucked out loud in non-save situations, TLR admitted the same, and this coaching staff did jack and shit about it since Kimbrel took a shit on this team's chances.

Plus, as Chicago White Sox told us, he's only been good in "54% of his IP" in recent years, while his obese salary consumes budget space that could be better used for more pressing needs. (Like EVERYDAY PLAYERS instead of RPs.)

I guess we now know why I hated the Kimbrel trade from conception...

I hope RH can miracle his way through this one somehow.

I’m thinking mop up roles and blowouts, etc. Of course if someone rings Hahn’s phone he should answer it, serious inquiries only.

[Balta1701]

4 minutes ago, Two-Gun Pete said:

Yeah, I fear you may be right.

I just didn't want him (firstly) because no one can show me how Craig Kimbrel was going to improve the OF defense, how a closer would help the lineup vs tough RHP, or would solve a hole at 2B.

Beyond that, there are other issues insofar as why trading for Kimbrel was moronic, but yes, I hope they read the market correctly as well.

Obviously the “hole at 2b” problem was a different scouting issue. I will say that a dominant bullpen able to cover the 8th and 9th would have solved a lot of the White Sox regular season issues, but clearly that didn’t go as I expected either.

[Two-Gun Pete]

4 minutes ago, caulfield12 said:

If he continues to struggle, you’re out more or less $8-10 million and you’ve forgone the opportunity to fix lots of overhanging issues coming into the season due to that $16 million being unavailable…good ‘ol opportunity cost raises its ugly head. 

No doubt. Given the scarcity of resources, where this team was at the TDL, and what this team needed, this was a moronic move.

I think RH is trying to salvage some return, but we'll see.

[Two-Gun Pete]

9 minutes ago, Balta1701 said:

Obviously the “hole at 2b” problem was a different scouting issue. I will say that a dominant bullpen able to cover the 8th and 9th would have solved a lot of the White Sox regular season issues, but clearly that didn’t go as I expected either.

See, I'm crazy in many regards, to include the crazy idea that an everyday player >>>>>>>>>>>> a RP, and that the lineup's needs were >>>>>>>>>>>> any needs in the pen. I thought that the pen needed "a piece," but not necessarily a "centerpiece."

I also kinda sorta got sick of watching RHPs curbstomp this lineup, and that it was a far more obvious weakness than anything that was wrong with the pen.

Now, I believe that WAR isn't entirely fair to RPs, because not everyone can do what they do. But OTOH, there must be a reason why the average everyday player routinely puts up more WAR than the average RP.

Edited November 14, 2021 by Two-Gun Pete