Robbie Ray to the Mariners, 5 years $115 million

[Eminor3rd]

Just now, maxjusttyped said:

Tony La Russa

Ahh, ok. 

[southsider2k5]

1 minute ago, Eminor3rd said:

I’m asking this question legitimately, because, as we all know, the social media space has turned into an animate cloud of malignant, cancerous unreality and contradiction: 

When was the last time Bob Nightingale rumored something that actually occurred for the White Sox? It seems like it might be never, but I really can’t keep track. 

 

Just now, maxjusttyped said:

Tony La Russa

?

[maxjusttyped]

Just now, southsider2k5 said:

 

?

It depressed me even typing that out. He was also out ahead in front (fwiw) signaling the Sox were going to trade Kimbrel and Hahn has all but confirmed it.

[South Side Hit Men]

Let’s rephrase the question:

When was the last time (if ever) Bob Nightingale tweeted a positive rumor about the White Sox that came to fruition?

Edited November 24, 2021 by South Side Hit Men

[bmags]

7 minutes ago, South Side Hit Men said:

Let’s rephrase the question:

When was the last time (if ever) Bob Nightingale tweeted a positive rumor about the White Sox?

What does this even mean? Today I guess? 

[ron883]

31 minutes ago, South Side Hit Men said:

Let’s rephrase the question:

When was the last time (if ever) Bob Nightingale tweeted a positive rumor about the White Sox that came to fruition?

The TLR manager rumor. 

[SoxAce]

3 hours ago, BigHurt3515 said:

Doesn't Ray grunt when he pitches? I can't listen to that every 5th day

You put up with it with James Shields pitching for us. I don't think you'll mind at all with someone who doesn't suck.

[Chisoxfn]

3 hours ago, southsider2k5 said:

To be fair, pretty much anyone has a better health history vs Cralos Rodon.

I don't know - I can't remember that Cralos Rodon guy ever getting hurt  

PS: Yes - I really went there and corrected you on spelling hahahaha

[caulfield12]

5 hours ago, Chisoxfn said:

I don't know - I can't remember that Cralos Rodon guy ever getting hurt  

PS: Yes - I really went there and corrected you on spelling hahahaha

Sounds like a new Crayola color…

[Timmy U]

1 hour ago, caulfield12 said:

Sounds like a new Crayola color…

Cralos actually sounds like a brand of Dollar Store Crayons.

[caulfield12]

15 minutes ago, Timmy U said:

Cralos actually sounds like a brand of Dollar Store Crayons.

Or a Greek island…

[hi8is]

This thread has become fun fodder ?

[poppysox]

12 hours ago, michelangelosmonkey said:

Following the tea leaves on this it seems like a multi-year offer to Rodon is my bet.  His market is depressed...no one knows his arm strength more than the White Sox...they were kind to him and his agent by not attaching the QO...and man when he was good last year he was Corbin Burnes good...and what do we need more than a TOR lefty?  Sure he wore out at the end but it seems like CaliSoxfan was predicting that all year.   You just don't ramp up from 0 to 190 innings in a year.   He got up to 120 last year and could be 180 this year.  3 years $50 million with injury clauses?  That's Kimbrell's money...so you trade him and still have money for Semien...Vaughn in RF. Let's go get a World Series.   

I agree.  I've been saying 3 years in the 12-15 range.  Lack of accepting the qualifying offer doesn't mean a lack of interest IMO.

[CaliSoxFanViaSWside]

On 11/23/2021 at 4:54 PM, michelangelosmonkey said:

Following the tea leaves on this it seems like a multi-year offer to Rodon is my bet.  His market is depressed...no one knows his arm strength more than the White Sox...they were kind to him and his agent by not attaching the QO...and man when he was good last year he was Corbin Burnes good...and what do we need more than a TOR lefty?  Sure he wore out at the end but it seems like CaliSoxfan was predicting that all year.   You just don't ramp up from 0 to 190 innings in a year.   He got up to 120 last year and could be 180 this year.  3 years $50 million with injury clauses?  That's Kimbrell's money...so you trade him and still have money for Semien...Vaughn in RF. Let's go get a World Series.   

Yep I have also mentioned coming back to Carlos a few times already. it may not happen but I think he'll be in the mix.

[michelangelosmonkey]

On 11/23/2021 at 6:55 PM, Jerksticks said:

What if you want to push hard for a championship though?  Rodon is a HUGE risk from my armchair.   Lot of money for non-guaranteed innings

Yes but who ISN'T a huge risk?   Robbie Ray is two years older and as recently as 2020 had an ERA of nearly 7.  Yes he's coming off a great year...but he's pitched 8 years in the majors and has had a WAR above 1 twice.  Plus the predictions are he will be 4/$100m and costs a draft pick.  Would you bet your life that he would have a better year than Keuchel?   Keuchel's had 6 seasons with WAR above 2.  Yes Ray's stuff is sexier and he had a much better 2021...but Keuchel's already on the team and had a MUCH better 2020.  

Stroman?  Would be our 5th righty and probably #5...5/$90 plus draft pick would be a lot to pay for a guy that is 31 and been a 2 WAR pitcher.

Max, Verlander and Kershaw have been amazing...but huge risk. 

Again part of the goal I think should be threading the needle and getting multiple WS's.  Rodon was 3rd overall pick in the draft, had brief touches with greatness and then arm trouble.  There are pitchers that have a history of early arm trouble that then come through it.  I detailed in an earlier thread about Mike Minor...missed two complete seasons and then put up 14 WAR in the next three.  Rodon was amazing last year...what everyone thought he could be.  Yes he wore down after 130 inning but he basically didn't pitch for   two years before that...building up arm strength IS a thing.  A dominating lefty power pitcher is what the White Sox need.  There are really only three reasons the White Sox didn't put a QO on Rodon--1, Soxtalk preferred belief that the White Sox are idiots, 2. They think his arm is about to fall off and they are worried he would accept the free $18 million.  3.  They are keeping everyone guessing...playing footsie with Boras and Rodon and if his market is soft they have good will to get him for say 3/$50,  Of all the moves they could make this winter I would most like to see that.    

 

[Balta1701]

1 hour ago, michelangelosmonkey said:

There are really only three reasons the White Sox didn't put a QO on Rodon--1, Soxtalk preferred belief that the White Sox are idiots, 2. They think his arm is about to fall off and they are worried he would accept the free $18 million.  3.  They are keeping everyone guessing...playing footsie with Boras and Rodon and if his market is soft they have good will to get him for say 3/$50,  Of all the moves they could make this winter I would most like to see that.    

 

I will suggest a 4th, and I’m not sure if I believe it but it makes more sense that your #s 2 and 3 - the Sox had a handshake agreement with Boras prior to 2021 to not use the QO on Rodon if he stayed for that tiny deal. 

[Chicago White Sox]

I still think Gausman might be our SP target.  And if a 5/$110M deal is all it takes, then by all means get it done.

 

[chw42]

2 minutes ago, Chicago White Sox said:

I still think Gausman might be our SP target.  And if a 5/$110M deal is all it takes, then by all means get it done.

 

He and Ray are probably gonna end up with similar types of deals. Both are guys who have great recent success but very meh track records before that.

[michelangelosmonkey]

6 minutes ago, Balta1701 said:

I will suggest a 4th, and I’m not sure if I believe it but it makes more sense that your #s 2 and 3 - the Sox had a handshake agreement with Boras prior to 2021 to not use the QO on Rodon if he stayed for that tiny deal. 

More sense?   I think its possible but at that point in 2020  NO ONE wanted Rodon and the idea we would have to agree not to guarantee $18 million for the 2022 season for Rodon to sign just seems like a ":why bother".  It's not like the franchise tag in football where he would be FORCED to sign with us if he had an amazing year.  The QO is only a tiny impediment to other teams signing him.  So we all agree that the QO is an asset...and one that the White Sox have thrown away...it's one of the most intriguing questions in the off season.   I have to believe Hahn is playing this like a chess match...we move then what will they likely move so I can make my next move.   #2 is the easy one...they think his arm IS about to fall off...they are in a greater position to know this than anyone and if they think that there is no way they make a QO offer because CR would just sign it and get $18 million.   The other option is way trickier....why would you just throw away that asset if you aren't stupid and you didn't have to?   I just think there HAS to be behind the door negotiations with Boras.  It's much easier for Boras to shop CR if there isn't a draft pick involved...so if we do this for you...what will you do for us?   It would also be a plus in CR mind...not only was he on a great team where he liked a lot of the players...but they gave him a chance this year when no one else did...and then didn't attach the QO.  Goodwill with the agent, goodwill with CR doesn't mean we get him for cheaper...just a tie goes to the White Sox.   

[hi8is]

34 minutes ago, Chicago White Sox said:

I still think Gausman might be our SP target.  And if a 5/$110M deal is all it takes, then by all means get it done.

 

Eewww. No bueno cinco anyõs.

[caulfield12]

42 minutes ago, michelangelosmonkey said:

More sense?   I think its possible but at that point in 2020  NO ONE wanted Rodon and the idea we would have to agree not to guarantee $18 million for the 2022 season for Rodon to sign just seems like a ":why bother".  It's not like the franchise tag in football where he would be FORCED to sign with us if he had an amazing year.  The QO is only a tiny impediment to other teams signing him.  So we all agree that the QO is an asset...and one that the White Sox have thrown away...it's one of the most intriguing questions in the off season.   I have to believe Hahn is playing this like a chess match...we move then what will they likely move so I can make my next move.   #2 is the easy one...they think his arm IS about to fall off...they are in a greater position to know this than anyone and if they think that there is no way they make a QO offer because CR would just sign it and get $18 million.   The other option is way trickier....why would you just throw away that asset if you aren't stupid and you didn't have to?   I just think there HAS to be behind the door negotiations with Boras.  It's much easier for Boras to shop CR if there isn't a draft pick involved...so if we do this for you...what will you do for us?   It would also be a plus in CR mind...not only was he on a great team where he liked a lot of the players...but they gave him a chance this year when no one else did...and then didn't attach the QO.  Goodwill with the agent, goodwill with CR doesn't mean we get him for cheaper...just a tie goes to the White Sox.   

When’s the last time a playoff team with a Top Ten payroll successfully kept a player in-house doing this?

The Angels, for example, definitely want Iglesias back on a 3-4 year deal…but no QO accepted.  The Dodgers didn’t have the option with K.Jansen since one was previously offered earlier in his career.  Both are at least 50/50 bets to return to their prior teams.

[Balta1701]

3 hours ago, michelangelosmonkey said:

More sense?   I think its possible but at that point in 2020  NO ONE wanted Rodon and the idea we would have to agree not to guarantee $18 million for the 2022 season for Rodon to sign just seems like a ":why bother".  It's not like the franchise tag in football where he would be FORCED to sign with us if he had an amazing year.  The QO is only a tiny impediment to other teams signing him.  So we all agree that the QO is an asset...and one that the White Sox have thrown away...it's one of the most intriguing questions in the off season.   I have to believe Hahn is playing this like a chess match...we move then what will they likely move so I can make my next move.   #2 is the easy one...they think his arm IS about to fall off...they are in a greater position to know this than anyone and if they think that there is no way they make a QO offer because CR would just sign it and get $18 million.   The other option is way trickier....why would you just throw away that asset if you aren't stupid and you didn't have to?   I just think there HAS to be behind the door negotiations with Boras.  It's much easier for Boras to shop CR if there isn't a draft pick involved...so if we do this for you...what will you do for us?   It would also be a plus in CR mind...not only was he on a great team where he liked a lot of the players...but they gave him a chance this year when no one else did...and then didn't attach the QO.  Goodwill with the agent, goodwill with CR doesn't mean we get him for cheaper...just a tie goes to the White Sox.   

Scott Boras will not play games like that with his clients. People go to Scott Boras because he won’t play games like that. The idea that he will do some favor that helps the team at the expense of his player? Not Boras. If you want a Boras client, you pay the price for that player. If you want that price lower, you need leverage like a QO that limits his offers. Avoiding the QO was potentially worth $10-$20 million to Rodon, if he can pass a physical.

[poppysox]

4 hours ago, Balta1701 said:

I will suggest a 4th, and I’m not sure if I believe it but it makes more sense that your #s 2 and 3 - the Sox had a handshake agreement with Boras prior to 2021 to not use the QO on Rodon if he stayed for that tiny deal. 

I still vote for #3.  Three years for 12-15 million.

[michelangelosmonkey]

1 hour ago, Balta1701 said:

Scott Boras will not play games like that with his clients. People go to Scott Boras because he won’t play games like that. The idea that he will do some favor that helps the team at the expense of his player? Not Boras. If you want a Boras client, you pay the price for that player. If you want that price lower, you need leverage like a QO that limits his offers. Avoiding the QO was potentially worth $10-$20 million to Rodon, if he can pass a physical.

I respect you Balta but this idea that you know what Boras will do is more omniscience than I'm willing to offer you. What we know with certainty is the mystery. Sox granted Boras and CR a benefit worth $20 million (your estimate) and will cost them a draft pick? It's intriguing.  If he signs Poppy's deal with someone else...it is #2....if he signs Poppy's deal with us it's #3. IF he signs 5/$100 with someone...you shrug and move on.   

[michelangelosmonkey]

4 hours ago, caulfield12 said:

When’s the last time a playoff team with a Top Ten payroll successfully kept a player in-house doing this?

The Angels, for example, definitely want Iglesias back on a 3-4 year deal…but no QO accepted.  The Dodgers didn’t have the option with K.Jansen since one was previously offered earlier in his career.  Both are at least 50/50 bets to return to their prior teams.

I'm not sure Carlos Rodon situation comes along very often.  You have a pitcher who basically didn't pitch for two full seasons...then comes back and is arguably the best pitcher in baseball for the first four months of the season.  Then pitches only 28 innings the last two months.  He averaged barely over 5 innings per start.  Then the team that has him doesn't offer him a QO.  If you are a team on the outside trying to make sense of this you sure would be cautious,  wouldn't you? I think half the people on this board would be disappointed if the "only" starting pitching move we made this winter was resigning CR for 3 years.  I think there is a scenario where CR is the best pitcher in baseball the next three years...hard to make that case for any of the other more expensive free agents pitchers.  Go look at Chris Carpenters career, Adam Wainwright,  John Smoltz.  Lot's of guys with arm troubles in their late 20's that are great in their 30's.