Adam Frazier traded to Mariners

[southsider2k5]

4 minutes ago, Balta1701 said:

So Frazier was traded at the deadline and was worth 1 rWAR in the last 2 months. This was disappointing as his performance was significantly down compared to his first half. He is going to earn around $8 million in arb next year. That was expensive enough that no one, including the White Sox, would give up more than a pittance for him.

Craig Kimbrel was traded at the deadline and was worth 0 rWAR in the last 2 months. This was disappointing as his second half was a disaster compared to his first half. His option is worth $16 million next year. People are expecting a big return for this?

You'll be able to hate the return soon enough. 

[Chicago White Sox]

16 minutes ago, Balta1701 said:

So Frazier was traded at the deadline and was worth 1 rWAR in the last 2 months. This was disappointing as his performance was significantly down compared to his first half. He is going to earn around $8 million in arb next year. That was expensive enough that no one, including the White Sox, would give up more than a pittance for him.

Craig Kimbrel was traded at the deadline and was worth 0 rWAR in the last 2 months. This was disappointing as his second half was a disaster compared to his first half. His option is worth $16 million next year. People are expecting a big return for this?

Maybe teams are looking at Frazier’s total track record and realizing his first half last year was a total fluke, whereas some GMs look at Kimbrel’s HoF track and saw 50+ innings of elite performance before wearing down from a massive innings increase?  And no one is thinking we’ll get a “big” return, but rather something more valuable than $1M buyout.

[Buehrle>Wood]

Idk, I'd still say Frazier is worth the chance. Lefty 2bman that should give a .340 OBP and 760 OPS. I would take that.

[Balta1701]

38 minutes ago, southsider2k5 said:

You'll be able to hate the return soon enough. 

Unless he’s not movable at all.

[Balta1701]

15 minutes ago, Buehrle>Wood said:

Idk, I'd still say Frazier is worth the chance. Lefty 2bman that should give a .340 OBP and 760 OPS. I would take that.

I’d have likely done this deal too but 28 other teams didn’t. This is one case where the full league probably has a reason why they didn’t.

[bmags]

Just now, Balta1701 said:

I’d have likely done this deal too but 28 other teams didn’t. This is one case where the full league probably has a reason why they didn’t.

Is it because other teams aren’t trying to balance a ground all heavy, RH heavy lineup in the same way the Sox are and different teams have different needs?

[Balta1701]

2 minutes ago, bmags said:

Is it because other teams aren’t trying to balance a ground all heavy, RH heavy lineup in the same way the Sox are and different teams have different needs?

So why did the White Sox pass on a comparable deal if it was so cheap and made so much sense for them? 

Im ok with your response being “the white Sox should have done this but Rick Hahn is an imbecile.”

[bmags]

1 minute ago, Balta1701 said:

So why did the White Sox pass on a comparable deal if it was so cheap and made so much sense for them? 

Im ok with your response being “the white Sox should have done this but Rick Hahn is an imbecile.”

I don’t really know because I am not the white Sox. But I would say there is a different market here for a gap hitting second baseman whose overall body of work is disappointing and relief pitcher, when there are 5 per team.

Frazier just happens to complement some of the Sox very specific areas to address. It doesn’t make them imbeciles, it’s not clear he’ll be particularly better than Cesar Hernandez next year overall.

[Balta1701]

1 minute ago, bmags said:

I don’t really know because I am not the white Sox. But I would say there is a different market here for a gap hitting second baseman whose overall body of work is disappointing and relief pitcher, when there are 5 per team.

Frazier just happens to complement some of the Sox very specific areas to address. It doesn’t make them imbeciles, it’s not clear he’ll be particularly better than Cesar Hernandez next year overall.

And Id say that two guys who struggled in the second half make a decent comparison, when one of them was worse in 2019 and 2020, worse in the second half of 2021, and paid twice as much. It’s not clear this pitcher will be better than Kendall Gravemann overall.

[GreenSox]

1 hour ago, Balta1701 said:

People are expecting a big return for this?

Hoping, not expecting.
When Kimbrel pitches well, which he did for much of last year, he is an elite closer.
Hoping some team is willing to pay a bit for that.
 

[caulfield12]

Frazier basically averaged a 1.4 fWAR for four seasons before 2021.

That said, he’s going to be 30 next year and likely jumping in salary from $2.5 to around $7.5 million…plus only one year of control.

Compared to the money Hernandez would have made or Leury is projected to get…and the fact he MIGHT have figured some things out like Chris Taylor later in his career, or Graveman as a pitcher, a very much calculated risk.

For SD, shedding 2022 payroll was the biggest point, when they already have Profar, Kim, Cronenworth and a full outfield.

 

“In Seattle, we are happy. The M’s have a gapping hole at 2B and a LH bat. Frazier fills those needs. We were looking at Marcus Semien. He is still an option but now the team is no longer desperate. His price may come down as a result. There is no infield log jam here. The M’s can afford the $7.5M for one year. Then they re-sign him or let him walk. Instead of needing a 2B the team can look for an infield bat at any position. Kerr had no role in Seattle due to the numerous young pitchers at AAA. Corey Rosier looks like a good prospect but is too far away to predict what he will become. So, I think it works out for all involved.”

It’s kind of ironic that he’s both LH and a slappy/gritty contact-oriented player in the Madrigal or Chris Getz mold.

[bmags]

22 minutes ago, caulfield12 said:

Frazier basically averaged a 1.4 fWAR for four seasons before 2021.

That said, he’s going to be 30 next year and likely jumping in salary from $2.5 to around $7.5 million…plus only one year of control.

Compared to the money Hernandez would have made or Leury is projected to get…and the fact he MIGHT have figured some things out like Chris Taylor later in his career, or Graveman as a pitcher, a very much calculated risk.

For SD, shedding 2022 payroll was the biggest point, when they already have Profar, Kim, Cronenworth and a full outfield.

 

“In Seattle, we are happy. The M’s have a gapping hole at 2B and a LH bat. Frazier fills those needs. We were looking at Marcus Semien. He is still an option but now the team is no longer desperate. His price may come down as a result. There is no infield log jam here. The M’s can afford the $7.5M for one year. Then they re-sign him or let him walk. Instead of needing a 2B the team can look for an infield bat at any position. Kerr had no role in Seattle due to the numerous young pitchers at AAA. Corey Rosier looks like a good prospect but is too far away to predict what he will become. So, I think it works out for all involved.”

It’s kind of ironic that he’s both LH and a slappy/gritty contact-oriented player in the Madrigal or Chris Getz mold.

What is this quote?

[Chicago White Sox]

41 minutes ago, Balta1701 said:

And Id say that two guys who struggled in the second half make a decent comparison, when one of them was worse in 2019 and 2020, worse in the second half of 2021, and paid twice as much. It’s not clear this pitcher will be better than Kendall Gravemann overall.

Kimbrel’s 2019 was 20 innings and his 2020 was awesome expect the first appearance.  You are greatly overstating his downfall.

[caulfield12]

8 minutes ago, bmags said:

What is this quote?

https://www.gaslampball.com/2021/11/27/22804872/talking-friars-ep-74-what-the-adam-frazier-trade-means-for-the-padres
The bottom comments section of this article, might as well be Nick from Everett.

Shockingly, fans from other teams go visit other teams’ fanboards to see what those particular fans think about a particular player, and not all are meatheads.

Edited November 28, 2021 by caulfield12

[southsider2k5]

1 hour ago, Balta1701 said:

Unless he’s not movable at all.

Oh right. Bold of me to assume Hahn has a basic level of lucidity.

[Balta1701]

17 minutes ago, Chicago White Sox said:

Kimbrel’s 2019 was 20 innings and his 2020 was awesome expect the first appearance.  You are greatly overstating his downfall.

Excluding his first appearance in 2020 he had a 4.20 ERA and a negative WPA, using the stats that B-R sorts easily. His 1.20 WHIP during that stretch would have tied with Michael Pineda, among others, for 180th in MLB that season, amongst guys with > 10 innings. You are greatly overstating his effectiveness in 2020.

[GreenSox]

Padres need a closer and now have more payroll room.  Preller not shy about trading prospects.  Throw in some $$ and get a couple of interesting prospects for Kimbrel.
Padres went  a season with Melancon - the worse good closer in MLB; Kimbrel's a big upgrade.

[caulfield12]

20 minutes ago, GreenSox said:

Padres need a closer and now have more payroll room.  Preller not shy about trading prospects.  Throw in some $$ and get a couple of interesting prospects for Kimbrel.
Padres went  a season with Melancon - the worse good closer in MLB; Kimbrel's a big upgrade.

“His numbers declined with the Sox, but they did not use him to close games. Kimbrel thrives on save situations.

The Padres will likely need to move salary to obtain Kimbrel. Jurickson Profar, Ha-Seong Kim, and Adam Frazier all make sense to some degree. The Padres would love to move Eric Hosmer or Wil Myers, but neither fit on the White Sox roster. The two sides match up well in trade, but they will need to get creative adding prospects here and there to even out a potential deal. Kimbrel would give the Padres a solid closer for the 2022 season, and the Padres could not add payroll if Preller plays his cards right. Only time will tell. Kimbrel will be dealt. That is a given.”

https://www.eastvillagetimes.com/closing-options-for-the-padres-in-2022/

While I would enjoy all the squirming if Hosmer or Myers ended up on the Sox for Kimbrel…it would have to be either Profar (money matches up pretty closely) or Kim (ditto).

They would be replacing Leury Garcia on the roster, but at a price almost twice as high as we were willing to pay him heading into this offseason. 
 

Kim is a great defender who can’t hit, so I will go with the long-coveted Profar.  And nobody will be all that happy, in the end.

For the record, I think they would rather have Melancon and Kirby Yates back again for the price of one year of Kimbrel…

Edited November 28, 2021 by caulfield12

[Chicago White Sox]

25 minutes ago, Balta1701 said:

Excluding his first appearance in 2020 he had a 4.20 ERA and a negative WPA, using the stats that B-R sorts easily. His 1.20 WHIP during that stretch would have tied with Michael Pineda, among others, for 180th in MLB that season, amongst guys with > 10 innings. You are greatly overstating his effectiveness in 2020.

Sorry, change first appearance to first inning.  He pitched a total of 15.1 innings in 2020.  His last 14 innings he put up a 1.12 FIP with a 18.00 K/9.  His first 1.1 IP he put a 33.94 FIP with 0 K/9.  Because you are dealing with the smallest of sample sizes, those first two shitty appearances in 2020 masked what was otherwise elite performance (SSS of course).

Look, this argument is pointless by now.  You want to believe Kimbrel sucks and that Hahn was an “imbecile” for acquiring him.  I will continue to look at the fact he was elite and perhaps the best reliever in baseball during the 52.2 innings preceding his acquisition, evident by the 1.64 FIP he put up during this stretch.  Given you’d rather overreact to ~20 innings during which did Kimbrel did not benefit from a spring training from his peers, nothing will change your mind at this point.  For the sake of others on this board, I’m going to stop beating the dead horse as I’ve made my case by this point.

[Chicago White Sox]

33 minutes ago, GreenSox said:

Padres need a closer and now have more payroll room.  Preller not shy about trading prospects.  Throw in some $$ and get a couple of interesting prospects for Kimbrel.
Padres went  a season with Melancon - the worse good closer in MLB; Kimbrel's a big upgrade.

I’m convinced you don’t like winning and simply want to hoard prospects.  We need to payroll flexibility to address our 2B, RF, & SP needs, not to get slightly better prospects from the Padres that won’t help us win this year.

Edited November 28, 2021 by Chicago White Sox

[Balta1701]

19 minutes ago, Chicago White Sox said:

Sorry, change first appearance to first inning.  He pitched a total of 15.1 innings in 2020.  His last 14 innings he put up a 1.12 FIP with a 18.00 K/9.  His first 1.1 IP he put a 33.94 FIP with 0 K/9.  Because you are dealing with the smallest of sample sizes, those first two shitty appearances in 2020 masked what was otherwise elite performance (SSS of course).

Look, this argument is pointless by now.  You want to believe Kimbrel sucks and that Hahn was an “imbecile” for acquiring him.  I will continue to look at the fact he was elite and perhaps the best reliever in baseball during the 52.2 innings preceding his acquisition, evident by the 1.64 FIP he put up during this stretch.  Given you’d rather overreact to ~20 innings during which did Kimbrel did not benefit from a spring training from his peers, nothing will change your mind at this point.  For the sake of others on this board, I’m going to stop beating the dead horse as I’ve made my case by this point.

No. Hahn made a mistake in acquiring him. His scouts and the system around him let him down and led him into a decision that imploded. 

He is deserving of insults for doubling down on that mistake, a move with a large risk and a low reward at best. He is deserving of more scorn if they don't take actions to correct how the mistake happened.

[GreenSox]

20 minutes ago, Chicago White Sox said:

I’m convinced you don’t like winning and simply want to hoard prospects.  We need to payroll flexibility to address our 2B, RF, & SP needs, not to get slightly better prospects from the Padres that won’t help us win this year.

Who do you want?  Jean Segura  and his $15 million of payroll flexibility?  That's how you win?
 

[tray]

20 minutes ago, Balta1701 said:

No. Hahn made a mistake in acquiring him. His scouts and the system around him let him down and led him into a decision that imploded. 

He is deserving of insults for doubling down on that mistake, a move with a large risk and a low reward at best. He is deserving of more scorn if they don't take actions to correct how the mistake happened.

Gamblers often double down on bad bets. 

If the Sox do not sign Semien they can still seek trade for a 2B or LH hitting RFer,

Perhaps the Dodgers could be a trade partner for Lux and/or Cody Bellinger

 

 

 

Edited November 28, 2021 by tray

[CaliSoxFanViaSWside]

3 hours ago, Buehrle>Wood said:

Idk, I'd still say Frazier is worth the chance. Lefty 2bman that should give a .340 OBP and 760 OPS. I would take that.

Outside of being lefty and costing $8M those numbers sound suspiciously like some guy who was injured that got traded.

[caulfield12]

14 minutes ago, tray said:

Gamblers often double down on bad bets. 

If the Sox do not sign Semien they can still seek trade for a 2B or LH hitting RFer,

Perhaps the Dodgers could be a trade partner for Lux and/or Cody Bellinger

 

 

 

The Dodgers aren't going to deal Bellinger if they want to win another WS title, because selling him for 50-65 cents on the dollar just doesn't make sense when his ceiling is league MVP.