Adam Frazier traded to Mariners

[tray]

17 minutes ago, caulfield12 said:

The Dodgers aren't going to deal Bellinger if they want to win another WS title, because selling him for 50-65 cents on the dollar just doesn't make sense when his ceiling is league MVP.

That's why I'd like to see him on the Sox babe.

[tray]

19 minutes ago, caulfield12 said:

The Dodgers aren't going to deal Bellinger if they want to win another WS title, because selling him for 50-65 cents on the dollar just doesn't make sense when his ceiling is league MVP.

Some fans think that is Vaughn's ceiling.

Kimbrel plus Vaughn should bring back a player or two of intrerest, especially if NL adopts the DH and the Dodgers don't sign Jansen who is 34.

[Bob Sacamano]

18 minutes ago, tray said:

That's why I'd like to see him on the Sox babe.

“God I wish they’d trade Vaughn.”*

[tray]

 

LOL.

So Bellinger or Vaughn. You would rather have  Vaughn in RF?

 

[tray]

10 minutes ago, Bob Sacamano said:

“God I wish they’d trade Vaughn.”*

You should remove the quotes pal.

[caulfield12]

6 minutes ago, tray said:

 

LOL.

So Bellinger or Vaughn. You would rather have  Vaughn in RF?

 

Is that a trick question?

[Chicago White Sox]

1 hour ago, GreenSox said:

Who do you want?  Jean Segura  and his $15 million of payroll flexibility?  That's how you win?
 

No, I want Conforto for RF and/or Gausman (or Scherzer) as a SP.  Those guys will eat up a lot of salary, which makes eating part of Kimbrel’s salary very challenging.

[Chicago White Sox]

1 hour ago, Balta1701 said:

No. Hahn made a mistake in acquiring him. His scouts and the system around him let him down and led him into a decision that imploded. 

He is deserving of insults for doubling down on that mistake, a move with a large risk and a low reward at best. He is deserving of more scorn if they don't take actions to correct how the mistake happened.

Brian Balta, smarter than Rick Hahn, Andrew Friedman, & Erik Neander confirmed.  Glad you knew from 20 shitty innings in 2019 that the best reliever in baseball over the previous 52.1 innings was suddenly going to fall apart.  I really hope they fire KW and hire you to be President of Baseball Operations because you literally outsmarted two of the best organizations in all of baseball.  And given this was such an obvious mistake to you, what actions do you suggest they take from prevent this from happening again?

[Balta1701]

40 minutes ago, Chicago White Sox said:

Brian Balta, smarter than Rick Hahn, Andrew Friedman, & Erik Neander confirmed.  Glad you knew from 20 shitty innings in 2019 that the best reliever in baseball over the previous 52.1 innings was suddenly going to fall apart.  I really hope they fire KW and hire you to be President of Baseball Operations because you literally outsmarted two of the best organizations in all of baseball.  And given this was such an obvious mistake to you, what actions do you suggest they take from prevent this from happening again?

No I wasn’t smarter than them, I liked that deal, but I had watched approximately 0 cub games in 3 years. I would continue to suggest that “a person who watched zero cub games couldn’t figure this out so no one could” remains a poor standard for a billion dollar business and not an acceptable excuse. 

[caulfield12]

56 minutes ago, Chicago White Sox said:

Brian Balta, smarter than Rick Hahn, Andrew Friedman, & Erik Neander confirmed.  Glad you knew from 20 shitty innings in 2019 that the best reliever in baseball over the previous 52.1 innings was suddenly going to fall apart.  I really hope they fire KW and hire you to be President of Baseball Operations because you literally outsmarted two of the best organizations in all of baseball.  And given this was such an obvious mistake to you, what actions do you suggest they take from prevent this from happening again?

He didn’t have to be.

Kimbrel had to be better as closer than Diego Castillo or Kittredge in Tampa…because they were looking at adding him for $5.33 million as the defined CLOSER.

Balta and Tony LaRussa could have known this without watching Kimbrel with the Cubs once in 2021.

And the Rays did come up short in the post season, so they obviously had concerns.

 

 

As far as the Dodgers go, they were considering moving on from Jansen…and it would have been a tryout for the 2022 option as well with Jansen an impending FA.  Now you can argue that the Dodgers had a lot of bullpen talent, but there was always the nagging feeling that Jansen would implode again in the postseason or some point during the second half.

Whether as co-closer or supplanting Jansen, they had their own vision…but it wasn’t a must have like Scherzer and Turner.  And, once again, they came up short as well despite adding 2 of the Top 5 talents available at the deadline.   Their starting pitching ran out of depth, in the end…forcing Buehler to go twice on short rest was too much to ask.

In no world did it make sense to pay two closers that kind of money…with Hendriks already in place for three subsequent seasons.  Having Kimbrel around even in 2022 was illogical, too.

 

Edited November 28, 2021 by caulfield12

[Eminor3rd]

8 hours ago, Chicago White Sox said:

Brian Balta, smarter than Rick Hahn, Andrew Friedman, & Erik Neander confirmed.  Glad you knew from 20 shitty innings in 2019 that the best reliever in baseball over the previous 52.1 innings was suddenly going to fall apart.  I really hope they fire KW and hire you to be President of Baseball Operations because you literally outsmarted two of the best organizations in all of baseball.  And given this was such an obvious mistake to you, what actions do you suggest they take from prevent this from happening again?

You didn’t have to “know it was coming” to judge the deal, even when it happened. It was a bad deal because relievers are wildly inconsistent over half seasons, and the difference between elite ones and merely good ones over half season is very small. It was a bad deal because they traded a core piece of their team for a luxury player that was only ever going to be marginally better than more affordable alternatives, and had a high likelihood to bust all along. It wasn’t about Craig Kimbrel specifically. You can’t expect anyone to predict the future, but you should expect them to know how to play the odds. 

[Chicago White Sox]

1 minute ago, Eminor3rd said:

You didn’t have to “know it was coming” to judge the deal, even when it happened. It was a bad deal because relievers are wildly inconsistent over half seasons, and the difference between elite ones and merely good ones over half season is very small. It was a bad deal because they traded a core piece of their team for a luxury player that was only ever going to be marginally better than more affordable alternatives, and had a high likelihood to bust all along. It wasn’t about Craig Kimbrel specifically. You can’t expect anyone to predict the future, but you should expect them to know how to play the odds. 

Again, I’m not arguing it was a good or bad deal.  I’m arguing that Hahn is not an “imbecile” for assuming Kimbrel wasn’t going to fall off a cliff post acquisition like many posters here are alluding to, which is very different than justifying the price we paid wasn’t steep (which it was and I acknowledged that at the time).

That being said, I fully disagree with your view on the value of elite relievers at the trade deadline.  Generally speaking, there is a reason the elite guys are always expansive at the deadline and that’s because context matters.  I’ve been arguing with you for years over this and the marginal value of a guy who has a high probability of getting three outs without giving up a run in the 8th or 9th of the playoffs is enormous.  This wasn’t about getting to the playoffs, this was about adding a guy who should been able to pitch 11% of nearly every single playoff game and get you three high leverage outs.  Outside of a legit TOR starter, nothing is more valuable during the playoffs.  You cite the volatility of relievers, but any player can go hot / cold during a short playoff series or two.  This high likelihood of Kimbrel busting in the playoffs vs any other player is absurd and the best organizations in baseball were prepared to make this same “bet” that we did.

[caulfield12]

17 minutes ago, Chicago White Sox said:

Again, I’m not arguing it was a good or bad deal.  I’m arguing that Hahn is not an “imbecile” for assuming Kimbrel wasn’t going to fall off a cliff post acquisition like many posters here are alluding to, which is very different than justifying the price we paid wasn’t steep (which it was and I acknowledged that at the time).

That being said, I fully disagree with your view on the value of elite relievers at the trade deadline.  Generally speaking, there is a reason the elite guys are always expansive at the deadline and that’s because context matters.  I’ve been arguing with you for years over this and the marginal value of a guy who has a high probability of getting three outs without giving up a run in the 8th or 9th of the playoffs is enormous.  This wasn’t about getting to the playoffs, this was about adding a guy who should been able to pitch 11% of nearly every single playoff game and get you three high leverage outs.  Outside of a legit TOR starter, nothing is more valuable during the playoffs.  You cite the volatility of relievers, but any player can go hot / cold during a short playoff series or two.  This high likelihood of Kimbrel busting in the playoffs vs any other player is absurd and the best organizations in baseball were prepared to make this same “bet” that we did.

As a closer…not in the 7th or 8th.

There are hundreds if not thousands of guys in baseball history that could pitch the 6th-8th but not the 9th.

There are only a handful who will make it to Cooperstown for that elite skill of dominating in your designated role of finishing games for a decade plus..

So why try to pound a screw in with a hammer when it will never fit?

Why demote someone essentially that was the best closer in the NL if not all of baseball the first 3-4 months of the season?  Why would you want to mess around with a successful dynamic and also mess a bit with the psyche of your newly-signed and All-Star FA closer?

 

Edited November 28, 2021 by caulfield12

[Chicago White Sox]

8 minutes ago, caulfield12 said:

As a closer…not in the 7th or 8th.

There are hundreds if not thousands of guys in baseball history that could pitch the 6th-8th but not the 9th.

There are only a handful who will make it to Cooperstown for that elite skill of dominating in your designated role of finishing games for a decade plus..

So why try to pound a screw in with a hammer when it will never fit?

Why demote someone essentially that was the best closer in the NL if not all of baseball the first 3-4 months of the season?  Why would you want to mess around with a successful dynamic and also mess a bit with the psyche of your newly-signed and All-Star FA closer?

 

Craig Kimbrel’s career splits prior to the trade:

• 7th/8th: 38.1 innings | 17.8 K/9 | 5.9 BB/9 | 0.7 HR/9 | 2.22 FIP
• 9th only: 486.1 innings | 14.7 K/9 | 3.3 BB/9 | 0.7 HR/9 | 2.13 FIP

Also, Kimbrel’s 7th/8th splits for 2020 only:

• 7th/8th: 10.2 innings | 18.6 K/9 | 5.9 BB/9 | 0.0 HR/9 | 1.32 FIP

Small sample size obviously, but your argument doesn’t hold true.

[Two-Gun Pete]

1 hour ago, Eminor3rd said:

 1. It was a bad deal because relievers are wildly inconsistent over half seasons, and the difference between elite ones and merely good ones over half season is very small.

2. It was a bad deal because they traded a core piece of their team for a luxury player that was only ever going to be marginally better than more affordable alternatives, and had a high likelihood to bust all along.

3. It wasn’t about Craig Kimbrel specifically. You can’t expect anyone to predict the future, but you should expect them to know how to play the odds. 

1. Agreed. This FO ridiculously overvalues RPs, whether it was Billy Koch, or Craig Kimbrel. The rest of the industry has already figured out that RPs are necessary, but there's a reason why fWAR tells us that the best reliever in the AL was less valuable than 110 other players.

2. Agreed. There were downside risks to the 2021 team, and giving up 2 league minimum players for a luxury player was bad and dumb. Especially considering that 2022 or 2023 might have presented a stronger opportunity to win than 2021.

3. Agreed. Creating and maintaining a margin for error is how a FO can keep a window open. Gambling a few pieces on a volatile RP in a season where there were better teams than this one was ill-informed and ill-advised. (Cue chicago white sox to slice and dice kimbrels numbers into sss to defend a bad deal.)

[Chicago White Sox]

2 minutes ago, Two-Gun Pete said:

3. Agreed. Creating and maintaining a margin for error is how a FO can keep a window open. Gambling a few pieces on a volatile RP in a season where there were better teams than this one was ill-informed and ill-advised. (Cue chicago white sox to slice and dice kimbrels numbers into sss to defend a bad deal.)

???…you crack me up buddy.  Me presenting data / facts in a logical way isn’t “slicing & dicing”, it’s just calling your ass out for routinely calling Hahn “stoopid” due to the benefit of hindsight.  

[Balta1701]

20 minutes ago, Chicago White Sox said:

???…you crack me up buddy.  Me presenting data / facts in a logical way isn’t “slicing & dicing”, it’s just calling your ass out for routinely calling Hahn “stoopid” due to the benefit of hindsight.  

“This season is fine if you select only these 14 innings and slice away the previous 1.5 seasons plus these specific innings” is pretty much exactly how I would define slicing and dicing.

[GreenSox]

11 hours ago, Chicago White Sox said:

No, I want Conforto for RF and/or Gausman (or Scherzer) as a SP.  Those guys will eat up a lot of salary, which makes eating part of Kimbrel’s salary very challenging.

Then don't pick up his option, if moving his salary is #1 priority.  If Kimbrel has real trade value, this is an opportunity for Hahn to make a clever and creative trade that could fill a  hole.  But that would not include some lazy deal like Kimbrel for Segura.

 

 

[Chicago White Sox]

13 minutes ago, Balta1701 said:

“This season is fine if you select only these 14 innings and slice away the previous 1.5 seasons plus these specific innings” is pretty much exactly how I would define slicing and dicing.

What 1.5 seasons are you referring to exactly?  My argument has always been dude was elite for the ~52 innings preceding the trade.  That is a factual statement and me stripping out the first two appearances from 2020 (which was to point out he wasn’t actually bad that year despite many of you thinking otherwise) doesn’t change that narrative.  Guess what, put those back and his FIP with the Cubs over the 2020 & 2021 seasons combined was 1.93.  So yes, the dude was still elite!  Yes, he was bad in 20 fucking innings during the 2019 season.  I understand that those 20 precious innings mean everything to you despite them occurring after Kimbrel did not have a spring training and represent less than 1/3 of a normal season for Craig.  As such, there is nothing left to argue here.  I fully disagree with your point of view and there is clearly nothing I can do to convince you otherwise.  I have no desire to carry on this argument because it’s annoying for the rest of the board, but I’m not also not going to sit by and let people throw shade at me for a very valid argument.

[hi8is]

Good Sunday morning everyone! Ah, I see the off-season is in full swing already here at Soxtalk. At this phase it’s appropriate to say…

Enjoy all the in-fighting.

[Bob Sacamano]

11 hours ago, tray said:

 

LOL.

So Bellinger or Vaughn. You would rather have  Vaughn in RF?

 

Vaughn for 5 years is more valuable. 

[Chicago White Sox]

10 minutes ago, GreenSox said:

Then don't pick up his option, if moving his salary is #1 priority.  If Kimbrel has real trade value, this is an opportunity for Hahn to make a clever and creative trade that could fill a  hole.  But that would not include some lazy deal like Kimbrel for Segura.

 

 

The option has already been picked up though.  Regardless, I’d rather just take a couple C prospects and not eat money that subsidize part of Kimbrel’s salary for a slightly better return.

[ShoeLessRob]

Was a shit trade from the beginning, now trade his ass to get the taste of shit from all our mouths before baby Jesus day!

[South Side Hit Men]

6 minutes ago, ShoeLessRob said:

Was a shit trade from the beginning, now trade his ass to get the taste of shit from all our mouths before baby Jesus day!

I like 8 Pound 6 Ounce Baby Kimbrel more so than the current version. Second option would be the kid imitating on the aisle.

Both $21M less than what the Sox spent, not to mention Heuer and Madrigal.

Shake and Bake!

[Dick Allen]

1 hour ago, Balta1701 said:

“This season is fine if you select only these 14 innings and slice away the previous 1.5 seasons plus these specific innings” is pretty much exactly how I would define slicing and dicing.

I will slice and dice for you. First the guy has had a HOF career. At the time of the trade this season he had pitched 36.2 innings. He gave up 13 hits and struck out 64, and had an ERA of 0.49. While I would say that is a pace that would be almost impossible to maintain, he certainly was the most dominant reliever in the game. To expect that to suddenly become a below average set up man is giving yourself or whomever way too much credit. But on message boards bei g wrong is easily forgotten or answered with a glad I was wrong, not the mess Hahn has. I loved trading for Kimbrel. I just hated Madrigal was included because I think he is pretty good. Same career OPS+ as Semien. And his low salary was beneficial to the rest of the roster. Replacing him will cost the White Sox big money they did not have to spend.