Adam Frazier traded to Mariners

[Texsox]

Since set up and closer are so radically different which poorly performing set up man is really a HoF closer? 

[caulfield12]

3 hours ago, Chicago White Sox said:

Craig Kimbrel’s career splits prior to the trade:

• 7th/8th: 38.1 innings | 17.8 K/9 | 5.9 BB/9 | 0.7 HR/9 | 2.22 FIP
• 9th only: 486.1 innings | 14.7 K/9 | 3.3 BB/9 | 0.7 HR/9 | 2.13 FIP

Also, Kimbrel’s 7th/8th splits for 2020 only:

• 7th/8th: 10.2 innings | 18.6 K/9 | 5.9 BB/9 | 0.0 HR/9 | 1.32 FIP

Small sample size obviously, but your argument doesn’t hold true.

You’re not looking at the context of those situations…for example, how many times did he pitch the 7th when it was the final inning of a game, where it was as THE closer?

Would like to see how many of those 7/8th innings were tied games…or non-closing.   How many just getting work in?

27 1/3 innings over an entire career up to that point proves only that he has almost always been used as a closer…and that more than 25% of outings in 7th and 8th came in anomalous Covid-related shortened games.

[Chicago White Sox]

7 minutes ago, caulfield12 said:

You’re not looking at the context of those situations…for example, how many times did he pitch the 7th when it was the final inning of a game, where it was as THE closer?

Would like to see how many of those 7/8th innings were tied games…or non-closing.   How many just getting work in?

27 1/3 innings over an entire career up to that point proves only that he has almost always been used as a closer…and that more than 25% of outings in 7th and 8th came in anomalous Covid-related shortened games.

COVID shortened games?

[caulfield12]

16 minutes ago, Chicago White Sox said:

COVID shortened games?

7 inning DH games…

From 8/7 to the end of the month, he only pitched with one lead the entire time, ironically against the White Sox in the 8th up 2-1, and Jeffress actually pitched at the end for the save.  Then his first official blown save in the 7th against DET, shortened game.

2 2/3 IP and 7 runs to start the season.

The first two weeks of September he was also pitching in all games the Cubs trailed.

But a number of meaningless games where he was pitching in the 7th or 8th (on the road, trailing).

 

Edited November 28, 2021 by caulfield12

[Chicago White Sox]

6 minutes ago, caulfield12 said:

7 inning DH games…

Kimbrel wasn’t the Cubs’ closer in 2020 

[Dick Allen]

Has there ever been a guy having the season Kimbrel was having traded at the deadline?

[caulfield12]

14 minutes ago, Chicago White Sox said:

Kimbrel wasn’t the Cubs’ closer in 2020 

https://www.espn.com/mlb/player/gamelog/_/id/30653/year/2020/category/pitching
 

Almost none of his outings in 2020 were meaningful after those first four disastrous appearances…three save situations, and a hold, which was a one run lead against the White Sox that Jeffress saved ultimately.  Then another tie game that eventually became a win in extra against CLE.

So how does pitching in all those mostly meaningless situations in the 7th and 8th indicate anything of value?

12 times he pitched in Cubs’ losses, just 7 times in wins…and 3 of those 7 were the first 2 2/3rds IP when he was absolutely getting shellacked to start the season.

Edited November 28, 2021 by caulfield12

[bmags]

The reason why I continue to think there will be no real issue trading him comes down to one thing: shitty white sox Craig Kimbrel was still striking out 40% of his batters, and teams are going to look at that and think something sox were doing was too predictable to create hard contact like he had.

[caulfield12]

45 minutes ago, Texsox said:

Since set up and closer are so radically different which poorly performing set up man is really a HoF closer? 

Didn’t anyone besides TLR realize that before the trade was made?  How massive the role adjustment would actually be?

AS CWS points out, he wasn’t Cubs’ closer for most of 2020…loses the role, regains it again and then loses it yet again in the span of one year.

How is that not going to have a massive psychological impact on him to keep changing his prep/mindset?

[caulfield12]

2 minutes ago, bmags said:

The reason why I continue to think there will be no real issue trading him comes down to one thing: shitty white sox Craig Kimbrel was still striking out 40% of his batters, and teams are going to look at that and think something sox were doing was too predictable to create hard contact like he had.

I hope that’s the explanation for Kopech second half and they figure out how to address it somehow, then.

[Snopek]

Hopping into an Adam Frazier thread only to see more “I knew the Kimbrel trade would backfire” posts

[Texsox]

35 minutes ago, caulfield12 said:

Didn’t anyone besides TLR realize that before the trade was made?  How massive the role adjustment would actually be?

AS CWS points out, he wasn’t Cubs’ closer for most of 2020…loses the role, regains it again and then loses it yet again in the span of one year.

How is that not going to have a massive psychological impact on him to keep changing his prep/mindset?

So who is failing as a set up guy that will be HoF level closer? Are you suggesting guys who get demoted fall apart and never return to their former glory? 

 

[Eminor3rd]

6 hours ago, Chicago White Sox said:

Again, I’m not arguing it was a good or bad deal.  I’m arguing that Hahn is not an “imbecile” for assuming Kimbrel wasn’t going to fall off a cliff post acquisition like many posters here are alluding to, which is very different than justifying the price we paid wasn’t steep (which it was and I acknowledged that at the time).

That being said, I fully disagree with your view on the value of elite relievers at the trade deadline.  Generally speaking, there is a reason the elite guys are always expansive at the deadline and that’s because context matters.  I’ve been arguing with you for years over this and the marginal value of a guy who has a high probability of getting three outs without giving up a run in the 8th or 9th of the playoffs is enormous.  This wasn’t about getting to the playoffs, this was about adding a guy who should been able to pitch 11% of nearly every single playoff game and get you three high leverage outs.  Outside of a legit TOR starter, nothing is more valuable during the playoffs.  You cite the volatility of relievers, but any player can go hot / cold during a short playoff series or two.  This high likelihood of Kimbrel busting in the playoffs vs any other player is absurd and the best organizations in baseball were prepared to make this same “bet” that we did.

You’re right that elite relievers are worth more at the deadline. But my point is that ALL relievers are. Already having an elite closer, the Sox were not in a position to extract the maximum value from Kimbrel as a top of the line closer, but we’re willing nonetheless to pay an incredibly steep price to buy one and absorb all the risk with it, instead of paying a much lower price for a good middle or setup man, who was nearly just as likely to produce a similar value or bust.

Was it possible that Kimbrel would have settled into the setup role well, and performed peak Kimbrel feats in huge moments in the playoffs, making all the difference? Yes. But it was very nearly just as likely that someone like, idk Kendall Graveman would perform just as well in the same situations.

The aggressiveness of the move wasn’t the problem — if Hendriks had been lost for the season, for example, the Sox could have made the same trade and it would have made sense even if Kimbrel ended up sucking just as much. Because the Sox would have been in a much likelier position to benefit from the difference between Kimbrel and the next best thing. But in the situation they were in, they made a massive gamble to acquire an asset in which there were simply many more scenarios where it either busted, or it wasn’t going to make a meaningful difference compared to other available, and quite frankly more appropriate options that cost less.

It was a desperate move in a situation that did not require a desperate move.

Anyway I don’t know if the point I’m making is the one you’re arguing with Balta against, and if so I apologize for derailing (I know how frustrating that is), but it does sound to me like he is arguing more about the logic than about Kimbrel himself.