Carlos Rodon and a 6-man Sox rotation?

[VAfan]

I'm just going to throw out an idea for discussion that's been percolating in my head for a while.  

1. I think the Sox are still going to be in the running for Carlos Rodon on something like a 3 year deal.  Maybe with an opt-out after 2 years?  

The Sox need Rodon, who was their best pitcher in the first half of last year.  Not only was he their best pitcher -- even better than a great year from Lynn -- but he's a lefty, which the Sox don't have in the rotation.  

The Sox know Rodon better than anyone else.  They won't do this is they know his shoulder is fried.  But I think it was just innings fatigue.  I expect he'll bounce back this year and be able to sustain his velocity for longer.  

Rodon knows and must like Ethan Katz, because he turned his career around in just one offseason.  Does Rodon want to ditch that and go elsewhere?  To a club that may or may not be a contender? 

I think Rodon still has unfinished business with the White Sox.  I think he wants to win a Championship, and if he had his choice, the Sox would be the team he would want to win with.  

The reason the Sox haven't already signed Rodon is because his market isn't set yet.  The Sox are not going to set the market for Rodon, but they might meet whatever the market turns out to be.  

2. If Rodon returns, and Kopech is added to the rotation, the Sox will have 6 starters.  Why not use all 6?

I haven't done a deep dive into the effectiveness or lack thereof of 6-man rotations.  I think most teams don't use them because they don't have enough pitching depth and want to use their top guys more often.  Didn't Milwaukee use a 6-man rotation last year?  

What happened last year was that by the time the playoffs rolled around, our starting staff was cooked.  Lynn, Giolito, Cease, and Rodon all got torched.  Lynn had the knee issue.  Rodon lost his velocity.  Cease had the strength, but was his usual head case.  And Houston was the worst matchup because of how well they handle fastballs, and how hard they are to strike out.  

I think this year will be better, but I still think pitchers won't be ready for 200 innings.  (Can you believe the 2005 Sox had 4 starters who went over 200 innings?)  So my thought is why not go to a 6-man rotation to ease the burden over the season and make the starters fresher for the playoffs. 

If you go to a 6-man, you can also keep Keuchel to see if he has a bounce-back year.  His 4th year doesn't vest unless he pitches 320 innings across 2021-2022, or 160 innings in 2022.  He pitched 162 innings in 2021, so you have to keep him under 158 in 2022.  With a 6-man rotation, you can easily do that.  

The other reason to go to a 6-man is because Michael Kopech isn't ready for a full season as a starter.  The Sox need to keep his innings down.  How do you do that without shutting him down, and then starting him back up close to the playoffs?  A 6-man rotation is one way to do it and still provide him steady work. 

The way I would order them would be: Lynn, Rodon, Giolito, Cease, Keuchel, Kopech.   Kopech isn't the 6th best pitcher, but he's the one who can pitch the fewest innings, so that's why I would put him at the back.  Plus, he's a huge contrast with Keuchel.  

Lastly, a 6-man can obviously become a 5-man for a stretch if anyone gets dinged up and has to go on the IL.  You don't have to use spot starters like Lopez nearly as much.  

*************

I think the chances of this happening are low.  Rodon has to sign, and the Sox have to think outside the box to go with a 6-man rotation.  But I still think it's a good idea.  The Sox do not need to burn out their starters to win the AL Central again, no matter what the Tigers have done.  They should be thinking postseason from day 1.  

Anyway, that's my thought.  

 

[Colome's Hat]

I'm down.  And I think people are underestimating the Sox willingness to spend major money and get over $200 million in payroll.

[Squirmin' for Yermin]

5 minutes ago, VAfan said:

I'm just going to throw out an idea for discussion that's been percolating in my head for a while.  

1. I think the Sox are still going to be in the running for Carlos Rodon on something like a 3 year deal.  Maybe with an opt-out after 2 years?  

The Sox need Rodon, who was their best pitcher in the first half of last year.  Not only was he their best pitcher -- even better than a great year from Lynn -- but he's a lefty, which the Sox don't have in the rotation.  

The Sox know Rodon better than anyone else.  They won't do this is they know his shoulder is fried.  But I think it was just innings fatigue.  I expect he'll bounce back this year and be able to sustain his velocity for longer.  

Rodon knows and must like Ethan Katz, because he turned his career around in just one offseason.  Does Rodon want to ditch that and go elsewhere?  To a club that may or may not be a contender? 

I think Rodon still has unfinished business with the White Sox.  I think he wants to win a Championship, and if he had his choice, the Sox would be the team he would want to win with.  

The reason the Sox haven't already signed Rodon is because his market isn't set yet.  The Sox are not going to set the market for Rodon, but they might meet whatever the market turns out to be.  

2. If Rodon returns, and Kopech is added to the rotation, the Sox will have 6 starters.  Why not use all 6?

I haven't done a deep dive into the effectiveness or lack thereof of 6-man rotations.  I think most teams don't use them because they don't have enough pitching depth and want to use their top guys more often.  Didn't Milwaukee use a 6-man rotation last year?  

What happened last year was that by the time the playoffs rolled around, our starting staff was cooked.  Lynn, Giolito, Cease, and Rodon all got torched.  Lynn had the knee issue.  Rodon lost his velocity.  Cease had the strength, but was his usual head case.  And Houston was the worst matchup because of how well they handle fastballs, and how hard they are to strike out.  

I think this year will be better, but I still think pitchers won't be ready for 200 innings.  (Can you believe the 2005 Sox had 4 starters who went over 200 innings?)  So my thought is why not go to a 6-man rotation to ease the burden over the season and make the starters fresher for the playoffs. 

If you go to a 6-man, you can also keep Keuchel to see if he has a bounce-back year.  His 4th year doesn't vest unless he pitches 320 innings across 2021-2022, or 160 innings in 2022.  He pitched 162 innings in 2021, so you have to keep him under 158 in 2022.  With a 6-man rotation, you can easily do that.  

The other reason to go to a 6-man is because Michael Kopech isn't ready for a full season as a starter.  The Sox need to keep his innings down.  How do you do that without shutting him down, and then starting him back up close to the playoffs?  A 6-man rotation is one way to do it and still provide him steady work. 

The way I would order them would be: Lynn, Rodon, Giolito, Cease, Keuchel, Kopech.   Kopech isn't the 6th best pitcher, but he's the one who can pitch the fewest innings, so that's why I would put him at the back.  Plus, he's a huge contrast with Keuchel.  

Lastly, a 6-man can obviously become a 5-man for a stretch if anyone gets dinged up and has to go on the IL.  You don't have to use spot starters like Lopez nearly as much.  

*************

I think the chances of this happening are low.  Rodon has to sign, and the Sox have to think outside the box to go with a 6-man rotation.  But I still think it's a good idea.  The Sox do not need to burn out their starters to win the AL Central again, no matter what the Tigers have done.  They should be thinking postseason from day 1.  

Anyway, that's my thought.  

 

I also think Rodon is still a pretty strong possibility.  But I think we'd move Keuchel into the bullpen as a swing man to help cover starts IF he can't be dumped

[CentralChamps21]

My idea for an optimal plan is to sign Rodon and have Rodon, Kopech and Keuchel rotate through the 4th and 5th spots and being skipped.

[35thstreetswarm]

I'd like to bring Carlos back (obviously assuming the medicals are ok), but I have a sneaking suspicion the org is not that high on Carlos.  I've heard the rumors about his work ethic, and TLR's public statements about his recovery at the end of the season were so strikingly negative that it almost seemed like the team was fighting his effort to build up value.  Admittedly this is all pretty speculative, but I just got the strong impression in September and October that the team had already cut ties.

[Tony]

1 minute ago, 35thstreetswarm said:

I'd like to bring Carlos back (obviously assuming the medicals are ok), but I have a sneaking suspicion the org is not that high on Carlos.  I've heard the rumors about his work ethic, and TLR's public statements about his recovery at the end of the season were so strikingly negative that it almost seemed like the team was fighting his effort to build up value.  Admittedly this is all pretty speculative, but I just got the strong impression in September and October that the team had already cut ties.

My thought was the Sox know Rodon better than anyone, and we've all heard the work ethic stuff. If that's true, I can totally understand not wanting to give a multi-year deal to a guy you're worried might not push himself once he gets that "long term deal"

But if that's true, not offering him the QO doesn't seem to make much sense. Seems like it's very little risk. Worst case, he's back with your club on a one year deal where he is still looking for that long term deal. 

[pcq]

It takes a village to have a good staff, 30 or more pitchers in a given season.

[kleedawg]

27 minutes ago, Tony said:

My thought was the Sox know Rodon better than anyone, and we've all heard the work ethic stuff. If that's true, I can totally understand not wanting to give a multi-year deal to a guy you're worried might not push himself once he gets that "long term deal"

But if that's true, not offering him the QO doesn't seem to make much sense. Seems like it's very little risk. Worst case, he's back with your club on a one year deal where he is still looking for that long term deal. 

I floated a similar thought on Rodon as the OP in a few previous thread. It actually does make sense for the sox Not to give a QO to Rodon If the sox think his arm is sound just fatigued. The sox may have feared that Rodon would accept the QO and we would have him for 1 year at 18.4mil. Then if he had another cy young worthy year he would be a free agent and get really paid...probably out of our price range. But by not giving him QO the sox may think they can sign him for something like 3-48mil which would be a steal if he is that TOT starter. Meanwhile, the rest of baseball would likely misinterpret the lack of a QO as by the sox as meaning Carlos arm is trashed (as most interpreted here). Which is a reasonable thing to think. Its a theory anyway. What the sox do is likely to validate debunk that theory.

Edited December 2, 2021 by kleedawg

[CentralChamps21]

4 minutes ago, kleedawg said:

I floated a similar thought on Rodon as the OP in a few previous thread. It actually does make sense for the sox Not to give a QO to Rodon If the sox think his arm is sound just fatigued. The sox may have feared that Rodon would accept the QO and we would have him for 1 year at 18.4mil. Then if he had another cy young worthy year he would be a free agent and get really paid...probably out of our price range. But by not giving him QO the sox may think they can sign him for something like 3-48mil which would be a steal if he is that TOT starter. Meanwhile, the rest of baseball would likely misinterpret the lack of a QO as by the sox as meaning Carlos arm is trashed (as most interpreted here). Which is a reasonable thing to think. Its a theory anyway. What the sox do is likely to validate debunk that theory.

Giving Rodon a QO doesn't preclude signing a longer deal.

[kleedawg]

32 minutes ago, CentralChamps21 said:

Giving Rodon a QO doesn't preclude signing a longer deal.

It doesn't but it kinda does considering who Rodon's agent is and what they would do if he is pitching well.

[scs787]

Hard Carl is hard to figure out for me. There may be a team out there that may give him more years and/or money than I'd be comfortable with but I would absolutely welcome him back under the right terms. 

[VAfan]

I believe the key to Rodon, as I said above, is that the Sox aren't willing to set the market for him, but they may be willing to meet the market.  In other words, we'll match any offer he receives (up to a limit, of course).  Given the uncertainty about him, that's likely to be a 3-year deal.  With or without an opt-out after 2 years.  Rodon might take that, because he can pitch longer to establish his ability to be a top guy, but then be back on the market when he's 31.  

In many ways, the Sox need Rodon (lefty, TOR when he's on), but Rodon kind of needs the Sox (WS contender, pitching coach who turned him around).   I will think it's going to happen until he signs elsewhere.

[SCCWS]

I didn't read a lot of the specifics but just before the deadline Boston signed James Paxson. A lefty like Rodon, h eis coming off TJ surgery and was also hurt previously. He signed for 1-$10M with club option for additional 2 years for total contract of $35M.  Got toRodon has to be somewhat similiar in value except Sox have a step up on his medicals /mindset.

[Chisoxfn]

12 minutes ago, SCCWS said:

I didn't read a lot of the specifics but just before the deadline Boston signed James Paxson. A lefty like Rodon, h eis coming off TJ surgery and was also hurt previously. He signed for 1-$10M with club option for additional 2 years for total contract of $35M.  Got toRodon has to be somewhat similiar in value except Sox have a step up on his medicals /mindset.

Rodon is coming off a season where if he pitched a few more games he might have won a Cy Young.  He actually was pitching at the end of the year. Paxton has barely pitched. If anything - Paxton getting that much money tells you another team WOULD absolutely be willing to give a decent contract to Rodon.  I do think one point holds true though - Sox could have not accepted QO because they either wanted to go more aggressive on a bigger name on a short-term move (vs. Rodon on 1 yr) or they wanted Rodon on a longer term deal. 

Or it is they don't want Rodon at all cause they don't think they can take the risk on his arm given their inherit payroll limitations.  

[ChiSoxJon]

I've been thinking this for way too long

[poppysox]

On 12/2/2021 at 11:05 AM, VAfan said:

I'm just going to throw out an idea for discussion that's been percolating in my head for a while.  

1. I think the Sox are still going to be in the running for Carlos Rodon on something like a 3 year deal.  Maybe with an opt-out after 2 years?  

The Sox need Rodon, who was their best pitcher in the first half of last year.  Not only was he their best pitcher -- even better than a great year from Lynn -- but he's a lefty, which the Sox don't have in the rotation.  

The Sox know Rodon better than anyone else.  They won't do this is they know his shoulder is fried.  But I think it was just innings fatigue.  I expect he'll bounce back this year and be able to sustain his velocity for longer.  

Rodon knows and must like Ethan Katz, because he turned his career around in just one offseason.  Does Rodon want to ditch that and go elsewhere?  To a club that may or may not be a contender? 

I think Rodon still has unfinished business with the White Sox.  I think he wants to win a Championship, and if he had his choice, the Sox would be the team he would want to win with.  

The reason the Sox haven't already signed Rodon is because his market isn't set yet.  The Sox are not going to set the market for Rodon, but they might meet whatever the market turns out to be.  

2. If Rodon returns, and Kopech is added to the rotation, the Sox will have 6 starters.  Why not use all 6?

I haven't done a deep dive into the effectiveness or lack thereof of 6-man rotations.  I think most teams don't use them because they don't have enough pitching depth and want to use their top guys more often.  Didn't Milwaukee use a 6-man rotation last year?  

What happened last year was that by the time the playoffs rolled around, our starting staff was cooked.  Lynn, Giolito, Cease, and Rodon all got torched.  Lynn had the knee issue.  Rodon lost his velocity.  Cease had the strength, but was his usual head case.  And Houston was the worst matchup because of how well they handle fastballs, and how hard they are to strike out.  

I think this year will be better, but I still think pitchers won't be ready for 200 innings.  (Can you believe the 2005 Sox had 4 starters who went over 200 innings?)  So my thought is why not go to a 6-man rotation to ease the burden over the season and make the starters fresher for the playoffs. 

If you go to a 6-man, you can also keep Keuchel to see if he has a bounce-back year.  His 4th year doesn't vest unless he pitches 320 innings across 2021-2022, or 160 innings in 2022.  He pitched 162 innings in 2021, so you have to keep him under 158 in 2022.  With a 6-man rotation, you can easily do that.  

The other reason to go to a 6-man is because Michael Kopech isn't ready for a full season as a starter.  The Sox need to keep his innings down.  How do you do that without shutting him down, and then starting him back up close to the playoffs?  A 6-man rotation is one way to do it and still provide him steady work. 

The way I would order them would be: Lynn, Rodon, Giolito, Cease, Keuchel, Kopech.   Kopech isn't the 6th best pitcher, but he's the one who can pitch the fewest innings, so that's why I would put him at the back.  Plus, he's a huge contrast with Keuchel.  

Lastly, a 6-man can obviously become a 5-man for a stretch if anyone gets dinged up and has to go on the IL.  You don't have to use spot starters like Lopez nearly as much.  

*************

I think the chances of this happening are low.  Rodon has to sign, and the Sox have to think outside the box to go with a 6-man rotation.  But I still think it's a good idea.  The Sox do not need to burn out their starters to win the AL Central again, no matter what the Tigers have done.  They should be thinking postseason from day 1.  

Anyway, that's my thought.  

 

I agree that we will be in the Rodon sweepstakes unless the FO has health issue knowledge that discourages them.  The 6 man rotation seems very reasonable when considering how the modern starter finds the old 200 innings standard a wearing experience.  The Katz relationship has to be a good tie-breaker IMO.

[SCCWS]

7 hours ago, Chisoxfn said:

Rodon is coming off a season where if he pitched a few more games he might have won a Cy Young.  He actually was pitching at the end of the year. Paxton has barely pitched. If anything - Paxton getting that much money tells you another team WOULD absolutely be willing to give a decent contract to Rodon.  I do think one point holds true though - Sox could have not accepted QO because they either wanted to go more aggressive on a bigger name on a short-term move (vs. Rodon on 1 yr) or they wanted Rodon on a longer term deal. 

Or it is they don't want Rodon at all cause they don't think they can take the risk on his arm given their inherit payroll limitations.  

 I think so many guys are coming back from Tommy John, that teams will take a chance on them. Paxton got 8+ w Seattle last year and 10 w Boston this year after TJ. Paxton was 12-5, 11-6 and 15-16 in 2017-2019. He was hurt in spring 2020 and finally had TJ surgery.

Rodon was hurt both 2019 and 2020 and bounced back this season.  Looking at what Paxton got , I could see the Sox taking Rodon back at 2 years and $25-28 with a 1-2 year club option.   

[MeanJoeCrede]

On 12/2/2021 at 10:05 AM, VAfan said:

The Sox need Rodon, who was their best pitcher in the first half of last year.  Not only was he their best pitcher -- even better than a great year from Lynn -- but he's a lefty, which the Sox don't have in the rotation.  

 

 

When did Keuchel suddenly become right handed?

[iWiN4PreP]

I bet he goes to the rangers 

[caulfield12]

6 hours ago, MeanJoeCrede said:

When did Keuchel suddenly become right handed?

He’s referring to Rodon…

[Spumoni]

On 12/2/2021 at 10:12 AM, CentralChamps21 said:

My idea for an optimal plan is to sign Rodon and have Rodon, Kopech and Keuchel rotate through the 4th and 5th spots and being skipped.

I like this as well.  With the 3 of them and Lopez being able to spot start as needed you have a decent amount of SP depth.

[CentralChamps21]

7 minutes ago, Spumoni said:

I like this as well.  With the 3 of them and Lopez being able to spot start as needed you have a decent amount of SP depth.

Unless they get a couple more relievers after the lockout ends, they're probably going to need Lopez strictly as a reliever.

[SoxBlanco]

1 hour ago, caulfield12 said:

He’s referring to Rodon…

He knows that. He was trying to say that it’s not true that the Sox don’t have a lefty in the rotation, because they have Keuchel. 

[CentralChamps21]

8 hours ago, MeanJoeCrede said:

When did Keuchel suddenly become right handed?

He couldn't be much worse . . .

[oldsox]

On 12/4/2021 at 10:32 AM, CentralChamps21 said:

He couldn't be much worse . . .

LOL.  Really, out loud.