2022-23 NFL Season thread

[The Beast]

6 hours ago, Chisoxfn said:

That one Falcons game was fun….

And the Seahawks game!

[almagest]

And beating Brady again

[The Beast]

4 minutes ago, almagest said:

And beating Brady again

Is that when he forgot what down it was and wouldn’t shake Foles’ hand like the poor sport and cry baby Brady is?

[scs787]

12 hours ago, Chisoxfn said:

Starting Monday bears can sign free agents with no impact on potential comp picks. 

Fingers crossed they already have a deal in place for Brown or Fisher. I don't care for the OG group of free agents left, but I'd like a vet, not named Dozier, added to compete for the spot. 

 

Brown-Whitehair-Patrick-?-Jenkins, depending on the RG can be really fucking solid. Still a big believer in Jenkins as a RT, I think he becomes a stud there. 

[dasox24]

17 hours ago, Chicago White Sox said:

I’m talking about college breakouts.  The majority of high end NFL WRs had a dominant season early in their college career.  A guy finally breaking out in college at 24 years of age and being successful in the NFL would be a first.  Doesn’t mean it can’t happen, but it would be unprecedented.

I'm sure we could find an example of it at WR, but of course it's not common.  You rarely see 24 year old's in college football, unless they left to do their Mormon mission, like is common at BYU.

Also, is anyone saying Jones is going to be a high-end NFL WR?  I don't think anyone expects that from a 3rd round pick.  If he can be a high-end return man/special teams contributor, and add some value in the Slot, that's a success.

Development also doesn't occur for everyone at the same pace.  We saw lots of players who wouldn't have been draft picks last year, but they got drafted this year after using their extra year of eligibility b/c of the COVID season.  Who's to say we wouldn't have seen this happen a lot more in the past if all players had 5 or 6 years of eligibility?  I guarantee we would have.

[almagest]

1 hour ago, The Beast said:

Is that when he forgot what down it was and wouldn’t shake Foles’ hand like the poor sport and cry baby Brady is?

Yup!

[scs787]

Yeah, I don't expect Jones to ever be a #1 but he certainly can add a ton of value to this team. Watching videos of him at the Senior Bowl dude was just super crisp and there was indeed a ton of talk of him moving into day 2 consideration, so I'm less befuddled by the pick now. If he can be Mecole Hardman I'm OK with that. 

 

I basically look at the Chiefs now as the comp. Mooney and Kmet will never be Hill and Kelce, but I do expect a jump from both to where they are both looked at as serious #1 WR and #1 TE.  I think the defense will be that much better than the KC teams that a drop off from Hill/Kelce to Mooney/Kmet will be close to a push.....Certainly not saying the Bears will be up there with KC this year, but I don't think the Bears are gonna be THAT bad. 

[Soxfest]

Bears drafted as many punters as wide receivers. Hope plan B is in place.

Edited May 1, 2022 by Soxfest

[Chicago White Sox]

5 hours ago, dasox24 said:

I'm sure we could find an example of it at WR, but of course it's not common.  You rarely see 24 year old's in college football, unless they left to do their Mormon mission, like is common at BYU.

Also, is anyone saying Jones is going to be a high-end NFL WR?  I don't think anyone expects that from a 3rd round pick.  If he can be a high-end return man/special teams contributor, and add some value in the Slot, that's a success.

Development also doesn't occur for everyone at the same pace.  We saw lots of players who wouldn't have been draft picks last year, but they got drafted this year after using their extra year of eligibility b/c of the COVID season.  Who's to say we wouldn't have seen this happen a lot more in the past if all players had 5 or 6 years of eligibility?  I guarantee we would have.

A WR breaking out at 24 years of age and being a solid WR in the NFL has never happened, at least not based on the data I have access to over the past twelve or so years.  Has never even happened for a +23 year old either.  It’s not uncommon, it would be unprecedented.  You’re also ignoring the fact that a 24 year old should be more physically developed than the 20 & 21 year olds he’s competing against.  Just like in baseball, there is a reason you typically discount the production of a minor leaguer when it comes against much younger competition.  Doesn’t mean things couldn’t have suddenly clicked for this kid, but there are certainly a lot of red flags.

Also, I gotta disagree that taking a 25 year old special teams player in the 3rd round when you have limited draft capital and are just beginning a multi-year rebuild makes sense.  By the time our team is actually good, this dude is going to be 27 years old at minimum.  The reality is they picked him over other WRs in the 3rd because they expect him to be much more than just a special teamer.  Hopefully Poles is on the money here, because the lack of weapons & protection for Fields at the moment is really concerning.

[bmags]

10 minutes ago, Chicago White Sox said:

A WR breaking out at 24 years of age and being a solid WR in the NFL has never happened, at least not based on the data I have access to over the past twelve or so years.  Has never even happened for a +23 year old either.  It’s not uncommon, it would be unprecedented.  You’re also ignoring the fact that a 24 year old should be more physically developed than the 20 & 21 year olds he’s competing against.  Just like in baseball, there is a reason you typically discount the production of a minor leaguer when it comes against much younger competition.  Doesn’t mean things couldn’t have suddenly clicked for this kid, but there are certainly a lot of red flags.

Also, I gotta disagree that taking a 25 year old special teams player in the 3rd round when you have limited draft capital and are just beginning a multi-year rebuild makes sense.  By the time our team is actually good, this dude is going to be 27 years old at minimum.  The reality is they picked him over other WRs in the 3rd because they expect him to be much more than just a special teamer.  Hopefully Poles is on the money here, because the lack of weapons & protection for Fields at the moment is really concerning.

https://www.sports-reference.com/cfb/players/marquez-valdes-scantling-1.html

[bmags]

5 hours ago, scs787 said:

Yeah, I don't expect Jones to ever be a #1 but he certainly can add a ton of value to this team. Watching videos of him at the Senior Bowl dude was just super crisp and there was indeed a ton of talk of him moving into day 2 consideration, so I'm less befuddled by the pick now. If he can be Mecole Hardman I'm OK with that. 

 

I basically look at the Chiefs now as the comp. Mooney and Kmet will never be Hill and Kelce, but I do expect a jump from both to where they are both looked at as serious #1 WR and #1 TE.  I think the defense will be that much better than the KC teams that a drop off from Hill/Kelce to Mooney/Kmet will be close to a push.....Certainly not saying the Bears will be up there with KC this year, but I don't think the Bears are gonna be THAT bad. 

Our dline isn’t very good, and that gap from hill / Kelce to Mooney /Kmet is a Grand Canyon.

[Chicago White Sox]

22 minutes ago, bmags said:

https://www.sports-reference.com/cfb/players/marquez-valdes-scantling-1.html

He’s probably the best example of a late breakout I could find, but he’s technically just under the 23 figure I was citing.  There just aren’t ton of examples even close to 23.

[scs787]

Justin Fields will finally give the Bears a 4000 yard passer. I'm betting the house on it. 

 

Mooney- 1300+ 

Kmet- 800+ 

Pringle- 750+

RBs- 600+

Backup WRs/TEs- 750+ 

 

That's 4300 on a low-end. 

 

I don't think that's too wildly unrealistic. 

 

[scs787]

%I haven't said it yet, and no one else has either, so I'm just gonna say it.... I really like the Ebnar pick too. 

 

I know a lot of people like Herbert, but he's not really a threat in the pass game. I'd love to see Ebnar be the back up. He looks like he could be a really good weapon out of the back field. Cohen-esque. 

[bmags]

7 hours ago, scs787 said:

%I haven't said it yet, and no one else has either, so I'm just gonna say it.... I really like the Ebnar pick too. 

 

I know a lot of people like Herbert, but he's not really a threat in the pass game. I'd love to see Ebnar be the back up. He looks like he could be a really good weapon out of the back field. Cohen-esque. 

I think just the fact that he was in an outside zone system makes this a likelier bet. Who knows if it fits Monty’s vision

[scs787]

11 minutes ago, bmags said:

I think just the fact that he was in an outside zone system makes this a likelier bet. Who knows if it fits Monty’s vision

I love Monty, but if the Bears use Ebnar the same way he was used in college, that's something I'd love to watch on more of a starting basis. Is film is fun to watch. He looks like he runs faster than his 4.46 speed. Maybe that's just from watching Monty for a few years. 

[ptatc]

13 hours ago, bmags said:

Our dline isn’t very good, and that gap from hill / Kelce to Mooney /Kmet is a Grand Canyon.

The whole team isn't very good and they know it. They are not planning on being very good this year. 

Next year they will have a high 1st round pick for the WR and a ton of cap space. Worrying about what they did or didn't do for this year really isn't worth the time. 

[ptatc]

11 hours ago, scs787 said:

Justin Fields will finally give the Bears a 4000 yard passer. I'm betting the house on it. 

 

Mooney- 1300+ 

Kmet- 800+ 

Pringle- 750+

RBs- 600+

Backup WRs/TEs- 750+ 

 

That's 4300 on a low-end. 

 

I don't think that's too wildly unrealistic. 

 

Fields will need to improve a great deal to complete that many passes. Below 60% completion rate won't do it.

[scs787]

1 hour ago, ptatc said:

Fields will need to improve a great deal to complete that many passes. Below 60% completion rate won't do it.

I mean, obviously.  I don't see why he can't do that. It's blatant cherry picking, but you take away the Browns game, which we all know was just the worst called game ever, and he was at 63%. 

 

 

[Balta1701]

 

[ptatc]

16 minutes ago, Balta1701 said:

 

Now we know why they traded for Brown.

[dasox24]

23 hours ago, Chicago White Sox said:

A WR breaking out at 24 years of age and being a solid WR in the NFL has never happened, at least not based on the data I have access to over the past twelve or so years.  Has never even happened for a +23 year old either.  It’s not uncommon, it would be unprecedented.  You’re also ignoring the fact that a 24 year old should be more physically developed than the 20 & 21 year olds he’s competing against.  Just like in baseball, there is a reason you typically discount the production of a minor leaguer when it comes against much younger competition.  Doesn’t mean things couldn’t have suddenly clicked for this kid, but there are certainly a lot of red flags.

Also, I gotta disagree that taking a 25 year old special teams player in the 3rd round when you have limited draft capital and are just beginning a multi-year rebuild makes sense.  By the time our team is actually good, this dude is going to be 27 years old at minimum.  The reality is they picked him over other WRs in the 3rd because they expect him to be much more than just a special teamer.  Hopefully Poles is on the money here, because the lack of weapons & protection for Fields at the moment is really concerning.

I agree with concerns of age if you're talking about a 1st round pick.  Those are guys you want around a very long time for sure.  But this is a 3rd round pick.  The hit rate is already low at this point in the draft.  Let's say he pans out and he starts seeing a decline after his age 32 season.  That's 7 years of good football from the guy - that's a lifetime in the NFL with how much parity exists in the league and roster turnover.  I'm absolutely taking that from a 3rd round pick if it happens.  And if he doesn't pan out, it's because the evaluation was wrong and then the age doesn't matter because he's gone long before he's out of his prime.

As for the point about a 24 year old dominating college players because he's more physically developed.  It would be one thing if it were a lineman.  Then yes, a 24 year old man is going to be bigger and stronger than a 19 year old kid.  But Velus Jones is a speed guy.  He wasn't dominating guys off the line of scrimmage or manhandling weaker CBs beating press coverage.  His game is played from the Slot and it's about finding space.  4.3 speed is 4.3 speed.  That translates to the NFL no matter how old you are.

Edited May 2, 2022 by dasox24

[The Beast]

https://mobile.twitter.com/thegeorgetwo/status/1521270331767468035?ref_src=twsrc^google|twcamp^serp|twgr^tweet

Yikes.

[Chisoxfn]

5 hours ago, dasox24 said:

I agree with concerns of age if you're talking about a 1st round pick.  Those are guys you want around a very long time for sure.  But this is a 3rd round pick.  The hit rate is already low at this point in the draft.  Let's say he pans out and he starts seeing a decline after his age 32 season.  That's 7 years of good football from the guy - that's a lifetime in the NFL with how much parity exists in the league and roster turnover.  I'm absolutely taking that from a 3rd round pick if it happens.  And if he doesn't pan out, it's because the evaluation was wrong and then the age doesn't matter because he's gone long before he's out of his prime.

As for the point about a 24 year old dominating college players because he's more physically developed.  It would be one thing if it were a lineman.  Then yes, a 24 year old man is going to be bigger and stronger than a 19 year old kid.  But Velus Jones is a speed guy.  He wasn't dominating guys off the line of scrimmage or manhandling weaker CBs beating press coverage.  His game is played from the Slot and it's about finding space.  4.3 speed is 4.3 speed.  That translates to the NFL no matter how old you are.

This + if he is a hit - you probably don't want him by the time he gets to the 3rd deal anyway and you still get great football for his rookie deal and his 2nd deal.  I could care less about his age. If he was a major league draft candidate, sure, and to your point, a 1st round pick, again sure, but as a 3rd rounder - if he really shined during the senior bowl and if his athleticism really pushes him up a notch, than lets see what he can do.  They could never rebuild this team in one off-season, so we know at the very least it is a 2 off-season process.

One thing that did stand out though - Poles likes athletes. It seems like that was a trend out of almost every player drafted.  In particular - the late round guys - he swung on people with athleticism and is looking at his coaching staff to develop them up. I really liked how despite a lack of picks, he stacked up more picks and just took some swings at a clear position of need (and if he somehow hits on one of those lineman - that is a huge win)  

[southsider2k5]