2022-23 NFL Season thread

[Chisoxfn]

30 minutes ago, bmags said:

I think an interesting dynamic is if teams trying to move up are more likely to try to give current year trade capital after seeing what happened to the Rams, Texans, Saints of recent years giving much higher picks than imagined.

Obviously, it can be hard to get the amount of value you need in current draft, but maybe teams who feel they are a QB away may be less inclined to send many future picks.

For example, I saw a tweet today saying bears get the texans 2 first round picks this year (2, 12), then trade back with seahawks for 5, 20. They'd end up with 5, 12, 20.

But to me the ideal would be back for multiple future firsts, especially an atlanta, carolina who are unlikely to see a big leap with one.

Your last scenario is ideal. If somehow Texans gave up that much to move up 1 slot (2 and 12)...than you move from 2 to Atlanta or Carolina and ideally get a FRP, 2nd rounder (this year), plus get a FRP in each of the next 2 years and you are now in business.  You don't just control this draft - but you have guaranteed yourself flexibility into the future and if you do it right, you can really maintain that flexibility a long time down the road.  

[bmags]

2 minutes ago, Chisoxfn said:

Well - if Houston gives up that - I have no issue.  That seems like a steep price for Houston to pay to go from 1-2, but boy woul that be amazing. Than just make sure when you go from 2 down (if that is what you do) you get a future first rounder (whether from Colts or whomever).  

My issue is most teams can't offer you 2 FRP this year that are worth enough to make it worthwhile.  

I agree I'd be guffawed if they gave up 12 for one spot, but it will really depend on where they are as an org. I think you see with others, you can get fatigued quick with absolutely nothing at QB which is what they and carolina have been at. I would just as soon go for stroud, but if you zero in on a guy you may just pay the price.

OR they get andy dalton or pay for geno smith if the seahawks decide to go young there (which I extremely doubt).

[bmags]

17 minutes ago, Quin said:

Poles is walking on sunshine.

I think this is wrong unfortunately. According to Courtney Cronin, he would have had to be with the Bears for 2 years and he's only been for 11 months.

[Chisoxfn]

38 minutes ago, bmags said:

I agree I'd be guffawed if they gave up 12 for one spot, but it will really depend on where they are as an org. I think you see with others, you can get fatigued quick with absolutely nothing at QB which is what they and carolina have been at. I would just as soon go for stroud, but if you zero in on a guy you may just pay the price.

OR they get andy dalton or pay for geno smith if the seahawks decide to go young there (which I extremely doubt).

IT also comes down to - if the Bears get enough of an offer from someone, if the Texans want a guy - than it might just take that price to move up.  It would be such an amazing move because Bears would still be in the driver seat if it ended up as a 1A/1B draft at QB with #3 being a bit behind.  If that is the case, than the #2 pick is the next spot to be at to ensure you can get the 1B QB. 

Again - all hypotheticals at this point and if there is one thing I've learned, you can never guess what and how people will end up valuing the QB's in the draft. We'll get disinformation to the downward, momentum to the upward, but ultimately who knows how it will play out.  

[Chisoxfn]

44 minutes ago, bmags said:

I agree I'd be guffawed if they gave up 12 for one spot, but it will really depend on where they are as an org. I think you see with others, you can get fatigued quick with absolutely nothing at QB which is what they and carolina have been at. I would just as soon go for stroud, but if you zero in on a guy you may just pay the price.

OR they get andy dalton or pay for geno smith if the seahawks decide to go young there (which I extremely doubt).

I'm guessing Raiders go veteran; Seahawks I could see going young (and keeping Smith - so call it a bridge option).  Not sure which other team up top goes veteran move (maybe Arizona goes vet - but also deals Murray if they really wanted to blow it up - although my guess is a new GM would kick the tires on Murray first).  

Teams that I think go rookie for sure (if they go QB) are Panthers, Texans and Colts. I don't see any of them going the veteran QB route as they all have kind of tried that approach (or if you are the Texans you haven't played in the QB draft in a while since Deshaun and technically have the capital to do so so why not).  

Atlanta - who knows. Lions, if they did, I imagine it would be rookie route (why trade Goff for Carr and Brady isn't going to Detroit (nor is he an upgrade over Goff at this point).  

One wildcard is the Saints. Are they really going to go with Winston one more year or will they start there blow up now (and who knows what capital they get for Payton).  But they are a team that theoritically could go crazy and trade an absurd # of future FRP.  

[Balta1701]

So there was really only 1 coach today and 3 total?

[Chisoxfn]

Okay - so this is my absolute semi plausible dream scenario from a trade perspective:

Bears trade 1 to Texans for #2 and their 2nd rounder this year and next year. 
 

Bears than trade with Colts - moving from 2 to 4 and get Colts 1st round pick, 2nd, and 4th this year plus a 1st and 3rd next year and Buckner.  
 

Cardinals trade down at 3 to somebody looking to get last QB. 
 

Bears draft Anderson at 4. 
 

Note: Total wet dream scenario is the original Texans trade is 1 for 2 and 12. Colts trade still happens as is. 
 

Bears get Anderson and JSN at 4 and 12. 

[Harry Chappas]

Bears falling ass backward into 1-1 makes Claypool trade for 2-1 tolerable.  I think Claypool can be a guy as well and for some reason I like Harry.

[Chisoxfn]

45 minutes ago, Chisoxfn said:

Okay - so this is my absolute semi plausible dream scenario from a trade perspective:

Bears trade 1 to Texans for #2 and their 2nd rounder this year and next year. 
 

Bears than trade with Colts - moving from 2 to 4 and get Colts 1st round pick, 2nd, and 4th this year plus a 1st and 3rd next year and Buckner.  
 

Cardinals trade down at 3 to somebody looking to get last QB. 
 

Bears draft Anderson at 4. 
 

Note: Total wet dream scenario is the original Texans trade is 1 for 2 and 12. Colts trade still happens as is. 
 

Bears get Anderson and JSN at 4 and 12. 

So I will expand on this using my wildest but somewhat crazy realism dream offseason. 
 

Free agency:

Big Money Guys:

OT (Brown) - Poles connection; he is overrated but still very good and clear upgrade who can play on both sides 

DT (Payne) - Young and explosive and clear upgrade. Yes overpay - but hope he isn’t franchised and just do it. Remember my scenario above also has Buckner and Anderson coming via draft (or draft day trade). So massively upgraded line. 
 

Medium Size deals 

TE - Engram - Just pay the guy. FA wideout class is week, got a lot of cap Space. Front load so you can walk away in 2-3 years when you need to pay Fields. He is former first round pick and has been solid with Giants and even better with Jays. Gives fields another safety valve. 
 

Rb - Sign Saquon (save your draft picks on dline, lb, oline, maybe another db, and one more wideout). Make sure cap Friendly cut in a few heads cause you will draft a new one in 2-3 years. Needs to be pass catcher. Bears are in cap situation where they can make this work. 
 

Other moves: 

Short term reasonable Linebacker / oline / Secondary depth moves. 

Offense gets a few major upgrades (3 free agent additions - 1 OT, 1 TE, 1 Rb and 1 day 1 or day 2 wideout (dream scenario is JSN because you have 2 1st rounders) and olinemem (center). 
 

Defensive line is transformed with 3 high end players - 2 young Anderson and Payne), one a bit older (Buckner). Other day 2/day 3 picks at lb / db. 
 

Internal moves: Extend JJ, Mooney and Kmet. I don’t extend Claypool - keep him hungry. 
 

Note: No earthly idea what the cap impacts of all of this is but in my head it seems plausible (other than I might be a bit aggressive on the Texans trade down). 

[Quin]

1 hour ago, Chisoxfn said:

Okay - so this is my absolute semi plausible dream scenario from a trade perspective:

Bears trade 1 to Texans for #2 and their 2nd rounder this year and next year. 
 

Bears than trade with Colts - moving from 2 to 4 and get Colts 1st round pick, 2nd, and 4th this year plus a 1st and 3rd next year and Buckner.  
 

Cardinals trade down at 3 to somebody looking to get last QB. 
 

Bears draft Anderson at 4. 
 

Note: Total wet dream scenario is the original Texans trade is 1 for 2 and 12. Colts trade still happens as is. 
 

Bears get Anderson and JSN at 4 and 12. 

I was trying to explain this to my best friend. He watches so much more NFL than me and he thinks the Bears will just take a defensive player at 1.

I told him the only way they keep 1 is if they take a QB, in which case Fields is gone. He replied "you're assuming that they'd take a quarterback with it. They need defense."

[ShoeLessRob]

1 hour ago, Chisoxfn said:

So I will expand on this using my wildest but somewhat crazy realism dream offseason. 
 

Free agency:

Big Money Guys:

OT (Brown) - Poles connection; he is overrated but still very good and clear upgrade who can play on both sides 

DT (Payne) - Young and explosive and clear upgrade. Yes overpay - but hope he isn’t franchised and just do it. Remember my scenario above also has Buckner and Anderson coming via draft (or draft day trade). So massively upgraded line. 
 

Medium Size deals 

TE - Engram - Just pay the guy. FA wideout class is week, got a lot of cap Space. Front load so you can walk away in 2-3 years when you need to pay Fields. He is former first round pick and has been solid with Giants and even better with Jays. Gives fields another safety valve. 
 

Rb - Sign Saquon (save your draft picks on dline, lb, oline, maybe another db, and one more wideout). Make sure cap Friendly cut in a few heads cause you will draft a new one in 2-3 years. Needs to be pass catcher. Bears are in cap situation where they can make this work. 
 

Other moves: 

Short term reasonable Linebacker / oline / Secondary depth moves. 

Offense gets a few major upgrades (3 free agent additions - 1 OT, 1 TE, 1 Rb and 1 day 1 or day 2 wideout (dream scenario is JSN because you have 2 1st rounders) and olinemem (center). 
 

Defensive line is transformed with 3 high end players - 2 young Anderson and Payne), one a bit older (Buckner). Other day 2/day 3 picks at lb / db. 
 

Internal moves: Extend JJ, Mooney and Kmet. I don’t extend Claypool - keep him hungry. 
 

Note: No earthly idea what the cap impacts of all of this is but in my head it seems plausible (other than I might be a bit aggressive on the Texans trade down). 

I don’t think investing big money into a RB with so much mileage and injury history is a good idea. If that was the “missing” piece to a playoff team then sure, but not in their current state. 

[Chisoxfn]

7 minutes ago, ShoeLessRob said:

I don’t think investing big money into a RB with so much mileage and injury history is a good idea. If that was the “missing” piece to a playoff team then sure, but not in their current state. 

They could also use a 2nd rounder on Bijon instead but they had top rushing attack in the league - imagine how that would look if you put a legit above average back who can catch the ball next to Fields. 
 

I like Montgomery - durable, hard working, but he is 100 percent just a guy. 

[Balta1701]

28 minutes ago, Quin said:

I was trying to explain this to my best friend. He watches so much more NFL than me and he thinks the Bears will just take a defensive player at 1.

I told him the only way they keep 1 is if they take a QB, in which case Fields is gone. He replied "you're assuming that they'd take a quarterback with it. They need defense."

Weird, wild s*** happens in the draft sometimes. 

If the best offer the Bears get for the pick is something like the Colts pick and a second rounder, wouldn't the Bears just say screw it and take the defensive player of their choice?

I mean, it seems unlikely, but "there must be someone willing to pay a fair price" isn't truly guaranteed.

[ShoeLessRob]

16 minutes ago, Chisoxfn said:

They could also use a 2nd rounder on Bijon instead but they had top rushing attack in the league - imagine how that would look if you put a legit above average back who can catch the ball next to Fields. 
 

I like Montgomery - durable, hard working, but he is 100 percent just a guy. 

I don’t disagree about DM, but I think in their current mold they are a multi back team and will get someone to compliment Herbert rather than a big splash. I think the big FA signings will be similar to your initial post, one on the OL and other on the DL. 

[Dick Allen]

I read something where the Bears were under some threshold and have to spend more money this off-season than any team has in an off season in NFL history.

[Kyyle23]

 

[Kyyle23]

1 hour ago, Dick Allen said:

I read something where the Bears were under some threshold and have to spend more money this off-season than any team has in an off season in NFL history.

I can’t wait until they spend almost all of it and someone calls in the score next June and calls the McCaskeys cheap lol

[Chicago White Sox]

I don’t think going big at RB makes all that much sense given how far we need to go in terms of overall team improvement.  I think someone like Rashaad Penny on the cheap may be the better value play in a committee with Herbert.

As for receivers, the WR class is horrific.  I’d prioritize Gesecki as a big slot receiver who alongside Claypool could create a ton of mismatches.  I’d then take a pure WR in round two or three.

[Harold's Leg Lift]

 

[scs787]

If I'm the Bears I just take a guy like Chase Brown in the 5th to pair with Herbert. 

[bmags]

https://www.pff.com/news/draft-2023-nfl-mock-draft-five-qbs-first-round-colts-trade-bryce-young

first mock draft i've seen post draft order:

Colts move up to 1 for Bryce Young, the Texans take Levis, and the Bears are able to still get Jalen Carter.

Terms of the trade up aren't described here, but also notable that 4 QBs are taken in top ten. I think PFF is right here, and that Anthony Richardson eventually moves into top ten. 

The hedge on this is Malik Willis, who also had great skillset but was super raw and draft mocks way overrated how teams would view. But Richardson's tantalizing measurables I think push him into these teams that have been treading water with QBs like Carolina.

[bmags]

12 minutes ago, Chicago White Sox said:

I don’t think going big at RB makes all that much sense given how far we need to go in terms of overall team improvement.  I think someone like Rashaad Penny on the cheap may be the better value play in a committee with Herbert.

As for receivers, the WR class is horrific.  I’d prioritize Gesecki as a big slot receiver who alongside Claypool could create a ton of mismatches.  I’d then take a pure WR in round two or three.

I actually agree with Chisoxfn here. I think you take the talent where it is. I'd target pollard if he actually becomes a FA, but Saquon is such a beast in the passing game. It would be interesting if Mike Thomas comes cheap (which...I mean he kinda should), as he'd be a perfect flyer for a team that can take a little more risk on.

The other thing is the whole league has started to down grade RBs again after the Elliott/Gurley run, and I think that helps maintain his money at a low rate.

[bmags]

good stuff from PFF today, Brad Spielberger updated his top 50 FAs. Nice to get an updated list after Conklin/Jenkins were locked up.

https://www.pff.com/news/nfl-2023-free-agent-rankings-free-agency

A la Chisoxfn, I'd attack the following:

1. Daron Payne
2. Orlando Brown
3. Tremaine Edmunds - Poles believes in measurables, hard to discount here, also still only 25 which I'd guess we'd see the younger targets (why I also went Payne over Hargrave)
4. Marcus Davenport - oft-injured but if that resolves he has a high ceiling here
5. Ben Powers G - turned into a great pass blocker and we need more of that (also why I went Brown v. McGlinchey)
6. Ethan Pocic - C

Likely Cut WR - Michael Thomas
See the market: Tony Pollard/Saquon Barkely

 

[scs787]

I feel like Khalil Herbert needs some respect put on his name. Lol. I think he lead the league in yards per carry. 

[Kyyle23]

5 minutes ago, scs787 said:

I feel like Khalil Herbert needs some respect put on his name. Lol. I think he lead the league in yards per carry. 

He never was the same after the injury.  I like him but his blocking is not good