Your Top 20 Sox Prospects

[Chicago White Sox]

It’s officially prospect ranking season and with nothing else to discuss baseball wise at the moment, I thought it’d be a fun exercise to outline our own rankings.  Feel free to do more or less, but 20 is usually a good number before you start getting into fringier territory.

Here is my list:

1. Colton Montgomery, SS*
2. Oscar Colas, OF*
3. Wes Kath, 3B*
4. Norge Vera, RHP
5. Jake Burger, 3B
6. Jose Rodriguez, 2B/SS
7. Bryan Ramos, 3B/2B
8. Andrew Dalquist, RHP
9. Matthew Thompson, RHP
10. Yoelqui Cespedes, OF
11. Sean Burke, RHP
12. Jared Kelley, RHP
13. Romy Gonzalez, SS/OF
14. Jonathan Stiever, RHP
15. Jimmy Lambert, RHP
16. Yogurt Sanchez, 2B
17. Tanner McDougal, RHP
18. Jason Bilous, RHP
19. Lenyn Sosa, SS
20. Misael Gonzalez, OF

Just missed: Micker Adolfo, Luis Mieses, Christian Mena, Wilber Sanchez, & Brooks Gosswein.

[Chicago White Sox]

One name that I think is consistently underrated is Bryan Ramos and this tweet got me very excited:

One interesting thing about Ramos is Law confirmed that he was dealing with shoulder soreness last year and that was a big reason he didn’t play much 3B (mostly DH with a little 2B mixed in) but that he’s more than capable there.

[runtheballdown]

You only need 3-4 guys from that list to make an impact and the Sox are in good shape moving forward. Ideally there’s always a pitcher or two ready to come up to the big club.

[Polar Bear]

I'm putting my rankings together, can't wait to release it.  

[Boopa1219]

1. Carson Montgomery - SS
2. Norge Vera - RHSP
3. Wes Kath - 3B
4. Jose Rodriguez - SS/2B
5. Oscar Colas - OF/1B
6. Yoelqui Céspedes - OF
7. Bryan Ramos - 2B/3B
8. Andrew Dalquist - LHSP
9. Matthew Thompson- RHSP
10. Jared Kelley - RHSP
11. Micker Adolfo - OF
12. Erick Hernandez - OF
13. Sean Burke - RHSP
14. Tanner McDougal - RHSP
15. Romy Gonzalez - SS/UTL
16. Yolbert Sanchez - SS/2B
17. Jonathan Stiever - RHSP
18. Jimmy Lambert - RHSP
19. Jake Burger - 3B/1B
20. Gil Luna - LHRP

[FriendlyNorthsider]

I like both of the lists posted, although I think Burger at 19 is way too low especially considering that there are 15 more DH spots to fill.

I think this system is pretty top heavy with a significant drop off after around 10 or 11. 

I basically put them in these categories:

• Long-term Upside Bats: Montgomery and Kath
  • Its way too early to make any sort of predictions for these two, but they were highly regarded picks that did nothing to dampen the excitement. An aggressive and optimistic schedule for these two would have them up in 2025, so these two will be part of the next wave assuming they arent moved in the more immediate title window
• Short-Term/ Decent Upside: Colas, Cespedes, Rodriguez and Ramos
  • These four have some pretty solid upside and can possibly contribute by the end of 2023. Colas' readiness is pure guesswork at this point, but he was successful in Japan as a 20 year old which is impressive. I watched Cespedes a few times last year and thought he moved very well in the outfield. Cespedes might be a decent barometer for what we might expect from Colas after a year out of competitive baseball. Yoelquis showed impressive power and speed but the K and BB rates were less than ideal. I can only imagine hell improve after getting some reps last year. Rodriguez had a break out year last year and may been the long term answer at 2B. 
  • As said before, ZiPS LOVES Bryan Ramos. Ramos is entering his age 20 season and despite never playing above high A, ZiPS has him as a 0.8 WAR player next year which is hugely impressive. What prompts the all caps LOVES in the previous sentence is that ZiPS has him as a 2.9 WAR player in 2024. Szymborski is releasing his ZiPS top 100 prospects next week and I wouldnt be surprised to see him included considering hes projected to be a near all-star at 22.
• Lower Upside bats that are ready: Adolfo and Burger
  • Neither figures to be an all-star but both could be a big factor this year. Burger is a tier above Adolfo and is more of a "prospect", but I can see either playing a role in 2022. Adolfo needs baseball to start back up more than anybody because he needs to make the most of his spring training audition.
• Pitchers with something to Prove: Kelley, Thompson, Dalquist
  • These three were probably the biggest disappointments of the minor league season last year. Kelley pitched 23.2 innings last season between Kanny and ACL with a 7.61 ERA and a 2.11 WHIP. Thomspon also split time between Kanny and ACL and had a 5.99 ERA and 1.68 WHIP over 73.2 IP. The plus side with Thompson was that he had 78 Ks and that he finished the season on a strong note with 2 scoreless starts (9IP combined) to end the year. Dalquist pitched exclusively in Kanny and had a 4.99 ERA and 1.72 WHIP over 83 innings. He struck out 79 but walked a pretty disappointing 56 batters. He also only gave up 1 homer despite a relatively high fly ball rate (he had a 5.94 xFip
  • The positive on each of these guys is that they were young for Kannapolis and that Kanny was a tire fire last year and nobody really succeeded. Theyre also all prep-guys that lost a year to COVID so it isnt too big of a surprise that they struggled. If they dont make a step forward this year, the worrying can begin.
• High Upside pitcher : Vera
  • I couldn't put Vera in the same category as they guys above him, despite not taking TOO much stock in his DSL dominance last year. He's probably on the same timeline as them, but I think at this point his upside is just way more believable. He is 6'4 200 with a rocket arm, multiple quality pitches, and by all accounts a very repeatable delivery. All of that suggests that he can stay a starter and can be challenged in the next year.

Despite a lack of a consensus top 100 guy (or really any top 100 guy) the Sox are not your typical 30th ranked farm. The upper levels are very weak pitching wise and the Sox are pretty tapped out on upper level hitting prospects beyond Rodriguez and Burger, but there is a good core of under 20 talent in the system. With some success in the draft and IFA market the Sox could be back in the middle of the pack sooner than later.

I could see pathways for any of Montgomery, Kath, Ramos, Rodriguez, Colas, and Vera (outside chance of Cespedes) to make the top 100 in 2023. Vera and Ramos have the most helium and Kath and Montgomery have the prospect pedigree working for them. Colas and Rodriguez are guys that are probably inside most evaluator's top 150 and are a good season away from being bumped up.

 

[Chicago White Sox]

On 2/17/2022 at 8:53 AM, runtheballdown said:

You only need 3-4 guys from that list to make an impact and the Sox are in good shape moving forward. Ideally there’s always a pitcher or two ready to come up to the big club.

What I like about the system is it’s a lot younger than it’s ever been.  While no one is a top 100 prospect type just yet, there are a dozen or so guys that have that kind of ceiling in their range of outcomes.  Obviously the vast majority of them will never reach their full potential, but the system can improve in a hurry even if a handful take a big step forward this coming season.

[GreenSox]

Over the last 15-20 years, the Sox  system has both a)been ranked pretty low most years (a few of the rebuild years, due to the  trades, excepted) and b) churned out more and better players than the rankings suggest that it  should.  I think that will continue.
The accuracy of the evaluation of their own prospects and what they do with them are the questions.
 

[bmags]

The lack of SP depth in our AA/AAA levels is just absolutely disturbing.

For all the warrented excitement over the stars our INTL program have found, and finally progress in position player depth out of that area, it is astounding that 9 years in - with all the random variability that happens with pitchers suddenly finding velo or stuff - that we have zero, zip, nada in terms of a decent pitching prospect from intl that has made it past single-A.

I think Greensox is exactly right above. This system will likely do better than we thought in different ways than we thought. But the problem with the early 00s was those guys being on completely different timelines than the major league team. 

Burger to me is still nice depth, he hit the shit out of the ball, and based on his history he maybe can cut down on Ks with experience.

But otherwise, what this system currently lacks:

- Dominant defender - fortunately we have Engel for 40 games. No outfielder or infielder that we could point to with excellent MLB ready defensive skills that maybe could find a bat.
- Viable Control-based college pitchers - cleveland has roughly 600 of these guys, with confidence their system will gain them velo and voila biebers. Be wary of Pilkington
- Contact-approach hitters - just a ton of players trying to find enough power to justify their k-rates
- Athleticism - thank goodness for Colson. But part of this is I can't remember the last college player drafted by the sox with anything other than gritty pitchability and corner outfield profiles. 

With this system I'd definitely have maxed out my INTL budget with volume, and I'd move off of the draft strategy of 2 top 50 targets and 18 250-1000 guys, personally

[Boopa1219]

1 hour ago, bmags said:

The lack of SP depth in our AA/AAA levels is just absolutely disturbing.

For all the warrented excitement over the stars our INTL program have found, and finally progress in position player depth out of that area, it is astounding that 9 years in - with all the random variability that happens with pitchers suddenly finding velo or stuff - that we have zero, zip, nada in terms of a decent pitching prospect from intl that has made it past single-A.

I think Greensox is exactly right above. This system will likely do better than we thought in different ways than we thought. But the problem with the early 00s was those guys being on completely different timelines than the major league team. 

Burger to me is still nice depth, he hit the shit out of the ball, and based on his history he maybe can cut down on Ks with experience.

But otherwise, what this system currently lacks:

- Dominant defender - fortunately we have Engel for 40 games. No outfielder or infielder that we could point to with excellent MLB ready defensive skills that maybe could find a bat.
- Viable Control-based college pitchers - cleveland has roughly 600 of these guys, with confidence their system will gain them velo and voila biebers. Be wary of Pilkington
- Contact-approach hitters - just a ton of players trying to find enough power to justify their k-rates
- Athleticism - thank goodness for Colson. But part of this is I can't remember the last college player drafted by the sox with anything other than gritty pitchability and corner outfield profiles. 

With this system I'd definitely have maxed out my INTL budget with volume, and I'd move off of the draft strategy of 2 top 50 targets and 18 250-1000 guys, personally

I think there’s a serious pitching development problem. Who’s the last arm that the Sox drafted and developed into a serviceable starting pitcher? Rodon? He was drafted in 2014 and was a top 3 pick. It’ll be hard to screw that up. Crochet could be that guy but I don’t trust LaRussa to stretch him out. This is a serious problem.

I’ve been told that the Sox don’t draft pitchers who don’t land straight to the plate. Their reasoning is that you can’t teach it.

Something has to change here. 

[bmags]

3 minutes ago, Joshua Strong said:

I think there’s a serious pitching development problem. Who’s the last arm that the Sox drafted and developed into a serviceable starting pitcher? Rodon? He was drafted in 2014 and was a top 3 pick. It’ll be hard to screw that up. Crochet could be that guy but I don’t trust LaRussa to stretch him out. This is a serious problem.

I’ve been told that the Sox don’t draft pitchers who don’t land straight to the plate. Their reasoning is that you can’t teach it.

Something has to change here. 

100%.

I think for a time they overvalued control and were ignoring athleticism in pitching. But I don't know that is the case now, if anything they seem to be targeting present-stuff too often in the draft. As above, cleveland, milwaukee seem to have really linked their scouting/dev side on pitching. They have types. 

Sox seem like it's been a lot get guys with 2 really good pitches...then fast-track them to bullpen.

 

[Harold's Leg Lift]

I don't think you can overvalue control. Over 20% of minor leaguers were able to increase their velocity by at least 1.5 mph while only 8% were able to improve their strike throwing percentage.  All things being equal I'll take the command guy and hope he increases his velocity over the hard thrower and hope he learns to throw strikes. 

[Polar Bear]

Here is my top 20 White Sox prospects.  I did leave a few off that others have as their age to me drops them down a lot.   

 

1. Norge Vera: the much anticipated stateside debut of Vera will come this summer. While in the DSL Vera showed improved fastball velocity (touching 101 mph) and command while also working on a splitter with Jose Contreras.  The improved pitch arsenal and fastball velocity gives Vera easy Ace upside with a floor of an elite closer.  However, if he can command the fastball while keeping the velocity late into games and show enough from the secondary pitches then buckle up because he will take off like a rocket.  

 

2. Colson Montgomery: the White Sox's most recent 1st round draft pick will now focus solely on baseball.   Much like Tim Anderson, Montgomery's upside will continue to grow as he moves through the system as a pro.  His hit tool should improve with more centralized focus on baseball and allow for his power to develop from raw power potential to in game power.  The risk the Sox took on a high schooler should pay off down the road for them.  

 

3. Oscar Colas: don't sleep on Colas as many of the experts seem to be doing.  Colas has had a long journey to just make it to the Sox.  He began in Cuba, then minor league ball in Japan before finally getting a taste of the big leagues there while playing for the Fukuoka Softbank Hawks.  His hit tool and power were on display as he hit 11 HR and batted .302 in the minors in 66 games and had 1 HR while hitting .278 through 7 games for the bug league club.  What stands out between his time in Japan and now, is his dedication and work ethic to transform his body from an overweight-esque physique to a much more toned and muscular build.  If he can stay that driven about improving his game stateside, he could quickly move up this list and through the minors.  The rust that has surely built up from not having played a games in 2+ years is really the only thing that is holding him back from stardom.  

 

4. Jake Burger: there is no one who deserves to be here more.  Either by sheer perseverance or skill, Burger missed 3+ seasons because of a couple torn achilles and the pandemic but he still managed to prove there is a legit mlb caliber player ready to star.  Burger hit .274 with 18 HR at AAA and looked comfortable hitting .263 with 1 HR over 15 games in the bigs.  He is only going to get better with further health and time to actually hone his skills.  I fully believe if the Sox ever trade him or man up and give him a playing time, he is a .275 hitter with 25+ HR potential.      

 

5. Jose Rodriguez: the White Sox were pretty aggressive with Rodriguez this past season and he answered the challenge with ease.  Rodriguez showed a nice power/speed combo early at low A, then he proved it was no fluke at A+.  The Sox then quickly promoted him to AA at the end of the season for a handful of games.  Over the entire season he hit .301 with 14 HR and 30 SB's.  Depending on how the Sox's 2B situation looks like in September, Rodriguez could be pushing for a call up to the bigs if he hits similar to 2021.  

 

6. Wes Kath: there is a lot to like about Kath and he will have to start showing it this season to stay this high on the list.  Big power potential with a potential above average hit tool are in the cards for him of he can tap into his raw power.  He didn't show much from his time at rookie ball but the tools are there for this high school product that the Sox took a chance on in the 2nd round of the 2021 MLB draft.  His bat flip game is already off the charts 

 

7. Yoelqui Cespedes: many sites and podcasts have stated that his calling card was his power, but that didn't show up in his stateside debut as he clubbed 8 HR's in 72 games, which isn't bad but definitely not "calling card" worthy.  What was squarely on display was his base stealing acumen (18 SB's) and his bat (.288 average over A+ and AA).  Maybe the power will show more in 2022, but with his smaller stature I'd bank on his power being capped some and his ceiling being a Michael Taylor type player. 

8. Matthew Thompson: Thompson comes in at number 8 because of his potential upside.  His era in 2021 looks bad, but it was much better when looking deeper.  His numbers after his months-long IL stint were much better than before the injury.   He posted 9 games of 3 runs or fewer after the injury with five 0-1 run games.  What stands out to me is his ability and willingness to use/command the breaking ball.   

9. Romy Gonzalez: I think the organization was blindsided by how good Romy was last season.  Romy hit a meager .244 with 4 HR's and 11 SB's at A ball in 2019 before missing a full developmental year because of the pandemic.  In 2021 he burst onto the scene as a legit power/speed guy, between AA and AAA Romy hit 24 HR's while batting .283 and stealing 24 bases.  Barring another 2B signing or trade by the White Sox, Romy could be in contention with Jake Burger and Leury Garcia for playing time on opening day.  If he does manage to stand out, it will most likely come from his power and approach to the opposite field driving his numbers.   

10. Luis Mieses: what does easy power and good contact get you, 15 HR, a .270 average over low A and A+, and a top 10 spot on this list.   As his plate discipline and pitch recognition get better he should get to even more of that effortless power.   20-25 homeruns in a season or two seem to be the correct power progression.  

11. Bryan Ramos: at only 19, Ramos was one of the younger players to start at Low A in 2021.  His youth was not a detriment as he held his own over the entirety of the season by hitting .244 with 13 HR and 13 SB.  The stolen bases most likely will fade down to 0 as he exits low A and their baserunner friendly rules, but the power could develop nicely with the bat.  

12. Tanner McDougal: drafted out of high school in the 5th round of the 2021 MLB draft, McDougal only appeared in 5 games before needing Tommy John surgery.  During his brief time in rookie ball, McDougal was showing a real knack for striking batters out with 17 K's in 9.2 innings.  Look to 2023 for McDougal to show off the high spin rate slurve and mid 90's fastball.

13. Andrew Dalquist: command, command command.  If Dalquist can increase his command with a higher strike % (58% in 2021) and a lower walk rate (6.1 BB/9), then there might be some real potential here.  Dalquist was drafted out of highschool in 2019 so this past season was his first real taste of pro baseball, if this past season was mostly rust then watch for him to start making waves.  

14. Wilfred Veras: stepping into rookie ball in Arizona without having ever played in the DSL because of COVID, Veras held his own and then some by hitting. 322 with 4 HR.  At 6'2", 180 pounds and only 19 years old, there is plenty of growth and power projection still to come for Veras.  The big factor that may be the make or break point for him is the strikeout numbers (~23%).  If he can manage to drop the K rate to below 20% then his power and bat could be shining bright on the south side in a few years. 

15. Jared Kelley: Kelley had a rough 2021 season marred by trips to the IL in the middle of summer.  Very raw still with a potential plus fastball and plus change-up.  A move to the bullpen might be a possibility if he cannot develop a breaking pitch to throw hitters off the straight stuff.  He would land higher on this list if not for the lack of a strong breaking breaking ball.   

16. Yolbert Sanchez: one of the few older prospects to make the list.  Yolbert has his age knocking him down as he played at A+ being 24.  He will be 25 once the season begins with only 39 games above A+ to his record.  A good hit tool against much younger competition is fine but doesn't really do much to show the true skill that is or is not there. Yolbert will really have to come out on fire once the season begins to stay as a relevant prospect.

17. Victor Quezada: keep this name on your radar as he could start getting noticed on industry prospect lists as this next season progresses.  Quezada is said to have big power and was one of the more recent signings that illustrated the White Sox's plan of going after power bats.  Marco Paddy said of Quezada "Big-time power, very impressive to find in a young guy."  This next season should provide the chance for Quezada to show the power and bat when he gets stateside at rookie ball. 

18. Erick Hernandez: don't fall for the Juan Soto comparisons, the real takeaway from that is his ability to control the bat through the zone like Soto and hit the ball to all fields.  Hernandez is still very raw as a 16 year old and has much to work on.  If he can show progression with the bat over the next few seasons then the Sox would have done well with this signing.  

(No video)

19. Dario Borrero: Marco Paddy had this to say about Borrero, “He’s going to have a lot of power. The intriguing thing about him is he can hit line-to-line. He handles pitchers, goes the other way when he has to, reads the breaking ball very well. He’s a very impressive kid. You normally don’t see Venezuelan players that tall with that kind of swing, being left-handed.”  Unfortunately, Borrero missed the majority of the DSL after a hot start due to an undisclosed injury.   I am most excited about seeing what he can do once healthy and stateside.  

(No Video)

20. Benyamin Bailey: Bailey is a few seasons ahead of the younger guys on this list, but went through the same path.  The reason Bailey winds up below the others though is the lack of production stateside.  Bailey hit .193 with 4 HR's over 61 games between rookie ball and low A.  He will need to drastically cut down his K rate (30%) in order to tap into his raw power and boost his batting average.  

 

Edited February 23, 2022 by Polar Bear

[Boopa1219]

8 hours ago, bmags said:

100%.

I think for a time they overvalued control and were ignoring athleticism in pitching. But I don't know that is the case now, if anything they seem to be targeting present-stuff too often in the draft. As above, cleveland, milwaukee seem to have really linked their scouting/dev side on pitching. They have types. 

Sox seem like it's been a lot get guys with 2 really good pitches...then fast-track them to bullpen.

 

I know they changed the pitching development staff recently but they might need to go outside of the org to get someone to oversee system wide pitching development alongside Ethan Katz, who should be writing the system wide plan.  

Edited February 24, 2022 by Joshua Strong

[Chicago White Sox]

12 hours ago, bmags said:

The lack of SP depth in our AA/AAA levels is just absolutely disturbing.

For all the warrented excitement over the stars our INTL program have found, and finally progress in position player depth out of that area, it is astounding that 9 years in - with all the random variability that happens with pitchers suddenly finding velo or stuff - that we have zero, zip, nada in terms of a decent pitching prospect from intl that has made it past single-A.

I think Greensox is exactly right above. This system will likely do better than we thought in different ways than we thought. But the problem with the early 00s was those guys being on completely different timelines than the major league team. 

Burger to me is still nice depth, he hit the shit out of the ball, and based on his history he maybe can cut down on Ks with experience.

But otherwise, what this system currently lacks:

- Dominant defender - fortunately we have Engel for 40 games. No outfielder or infielder that we could point to with excellent MLB ready defensive skills that maybe could find a bat.
- Viable Control-based college pitchers - cleveland has roughly 600 of these guys, with confidence their system will gain them velo and voila biebers. Be wary of Pilkington
- Contact-approach hitters - just a ton of players trying to find enough power to justify their k-rates
- Athleticism - thank goodness for Colson. But part of this is I can't remember the last college player drafted by the sox with anything other than gritty pitchability and corner outfield profiles. 

With this system I'd definitely have maxed out my INTL budget with volume, and I'd move off of the draft strategy of 2 top 50 targets and 18 250-1000 guys, personally

The upper minors lack high-end SP depth, but there is actually quite a bit of backend type guys.  I still believe Stiever & Lambert can be contributors at the major league leave and McClure & Bilous are semi-interesting.  For as weak of a system as we have, I can live with those guys as our #8 & #9 starters.  The gap between them and Lopez unfortunately and that likely has to be addressed via trade & free agency.

[bmags]

7 hours ago, Chicago White Sox said:

The upper minors lack high-end SP depth, but there is actually quite a bit of backend type guys.  I still believe Stiever & Lambert can be contributors at the major league leave and McClure & Bilous are semi-interesting.  For as weak of a system as we have, I can live with those guys as our #8 & #9 starters.  The gap between them and Lopez unfortunately and that likely has to be addressed via trade & free agency.

I don't see Stiever or Lambert as strong backend depth, as seen by Mike Wright getting more burn in the majors. Stiever has not been effective since 2019, Lambert looked like a good bullpen piece in 2020 ST before another injury. McClure and Bilous are bullpen plays. Bilous walks way too many guys.

More interested in Emilio Vargas as backend depth than either.

[Bob Sacamano]

2 hours ago, bmags said:

I don't see Stiever or Lambert as strong backend depth, as seen by Mike Wright getting more burn in the majors. Stiever has not been effective since 2019, Lambert looked like a good bullpen piece in 2020 ST before another injury. McClure and Bilous are bullpen plays. Bilous walks way too many guys.

More interested in Emilio Vargas as backend depth than either.

Agreed.

[Chicago White Sox]

3 hours ago, bmags said:

I don't see Stiever or Lambert as strong backend depth, as seen by Mike Wright getting more burn in the majors. Stiever has not been effective since 2019, Lambert looked like a good bullpen piece in 2020 ST before another injury. McClure and Bilous are bullpen plays. Bilous walks way too many guys.

More interested in Emilio Vargas as backend depth than either.

IMO, Stiever & Lambert have both been victims of health and lost development time during the pandemic.  Stiever in particular went from A+ to the major league mini-camp when the pandemic hit.  I get they’re getting up there in age (especially Lambert), but posted great K rates in AAA last and I truly believe there is untapped potential there.  I wouldn’t call them “great” back-end depth by any means but I think they’re fine for where they should be sitting in the pecking order (#8 & #9 type guys).

[Chisoxfn]

On 2/23/2022 at 11:07 AM, Harold's Leg Lift said:

I don't think you can overvalue control. Over 20% of minor leaguers were able to increase their velocity by at least 1.5 mph while only 8% were able to improve their strike throwing percentage.  All things being equal I'll take the command guy and hope he increases his velocity over the hard thrower and hope he learns to throw strikes. 

Really interesting data set and excellent point.  

[oldsox]

16 hours ago, Chisoxfn said:

Really interesting data set and excellent point.  

I'll take Vera.