War in Ukraine

[caulfield12]

How long do you believe it will last?

Will we see any type of Western/European/NATO or US military involvement?

Is it simply a matter of appeasement (Ukraine will never join NATO), or is it much bigger, to the point where Ukraine will be reabsorbed into Russia and can never be allowed to become a democracy after two attempts the last two decades were aborted by Russia?

What will be the impact on former Soviet satellite states and Eastern Europe?

Is there any leadership in Europe, or America, for that matter?  Macron, the new German leader Stolz, Boris Johnson...certainly there's no clear leader in that sphere with Merkel now gone.

 

[Texsox]

Decades. It's the new Afghanistan in many ways.

If Mexico was leaning communist and we could split off a few border states to remain loyal to us, we'd be considering supporting those brave freedom fighters wanting the US. 

For peace NATO needs to find a way to lose gracefully and accept an East and West Ukraine. 

[CentralChamps21]

Russia will do whatever China is OK with them doing. If China isn't willing to impose sanctions, then the western sanctions have limited impact.

[Texsox]

Forty years ago my career goal was to be a journalist and dreamed of seeing my by line reporting from a war zone. 

I still have the greatest respect for those journalists and appreciate the great personal risk they are taking. Watching their coverage with modern media is so much more personal and immediate.

Being a parent and grandparent I see video of fighter jets flying low over suburban houses and just want to hold my kids. War isn't glorious. My prayers are constant for all innocents. I sent my normal donation to the Red Cross and will be researching legitimate relief organizations that are helping the Ukrainian refugees. 

I'm also writing to my senators and member of Congress urging them to welcome war refugees to our borders.

[Harry Chappas]

In this day in age I am still rather perplexed as to what the end game is here for Russia.  Are there resources in this land?  

What is the issue with the Ukraine joining NATO?  I cannot find a detailed analysis s to what that means. 

The timing of this seems odd as Russia could have done this at any time over the last 20+ years, why now.  

[Texsox]

6 minutes ago, Harry Chappas said:

In this day in age I am still rather perplexed as to what the end game is here for Russia.  Are there resources in this land?  

What is the issue with the Ukraine joining NATO?  I cannot find a detailed analysis s to what that means. 

The timing of this seems odd as Russia could have done this at any time over the last 20+ years, why now.  

Imagine Russian military along the Canadian border. Ukraine joins NATO and there would be US troops on Russia's border.

[Harry Chappas]

1 minute ago, Texsox said:

Imagine Russian military along the Canadian border. Ukraine joins NATO and there would be US troops on Russia's border.

Why can't US troops be in the Ukraine currently? 

[CentralChamps21]

19 minutes ago, Texsox said:

Imagine Russian military along the Canadian border. Ukraine joins NATO and there would be US troops on Russia's border.

There are already four NATO members that border Russia.

[Texsox]

19 minutes ago, Harry Chappas said:

Why can't US troops be in the Ukraine currently? 

Pretty much the same reason we took swift action when Russian put troops and missiles in Cuba. 

[Quin]

25 minutes ago, Harry Chappas said:

Why can't US troops be in the Ukraine currently? 

Any NATO member exchanges fire with Russia and you bring down the whole weight of the alliance.

With Putin essentially threatening World War III (“consequences you have never seen" says the man with a massive nuclear arsenal), sanctioning Russia's economy into the 1800s is going to be the biggest step for a lot of nations for a while. 

[Texsox]

Let's just hope they never want Alyeska back. 

[hogan873]

I see this being a years-long "war".  I don't think we'll see much in the way of western/US forces being involved, nor do I think there should be.  The war in Afghanistan should be a warning for other countries thinking about getting involved.

I don't think Putin cares what the rest of the world thinks.  I'm not sure what sanctions and condemnations will do.

[Balta1701]

24 minutes ago, hogan873 said:

I see this being a years-long "war".  I don't think we'll see much in the way of western/US forces being involved, nor do I think there should be.  The war in Afghanistan should be a warning for other countries thinking about getting involved.

I don't think Putin cares what the rest of the world thinks.  I'm not sure what sanctions and condemnations will do.

It’s not the only factor, but one factor in this happening is actual rising discontent in Russia. Imperial wars are often a counter to that - but wars aren’t cheap, they take an economic toll to run. Russia has very few solid industries, most notably natural gas. They have money saved up from that, but their ability to hold this territory will depend on their population being willing to support it and then having the money to do it. The kind of sanctions that could be imposed by a unified west could,, over time, break this regime now that they’ve committed to the costs of war.  But…the west would have to stay United and leave that gas in Russia.

[Texsox]

22 minutes ago, Balta1701 said:

It’s not the only factor, but one factor in this happening is actual rising discontent in Russia. Imperial wars are often a counter to that - but wars aren’t cheap, they take an economic toll to run. Russia has very few solid industries, most notably natural gas. They have money saved up from that, but their ability to hold this territory will depend on their population being willing to support it and then having the money to do it. The kind of sanctions that could be imposed by a unified west could,, over time, break this regime now that they’ve committed to the costs of war.  But…the west would have to stay United and leave that gas in Russia.

While Europe will be buying the more expensive Texas gas. Will Germans be happy paying more for energy after being so close to cheaper gas from Russia? 

[Balta1701]

15 minutes ago, Texsox said:

While Europe will be buying the more expensive Texas gas. Will Germans be happy paying more for energy after being so close to cheaper gas from Russia? 

That question will be key to whether or not this invasion succeeds. I do not know the answer.

[southsider2k5]

39 minutes ago, Balta1701 said:

It’s not the only factor, but one factor in this happening is actual rising discontent in Russia. Imperial wars are often a counter to that - but wars aren’t cheap, they take an economic toll to run. Russia has very few solid industries, most notably natural gas. They have money saved up from that, but their ability to hold this territory will depend on their population being willing to support it and then having the money to do it. The kind of sanctions that could be imposed by a unified west could,, over time, break this regime now that they’ve committed to the costs of war.  But…the west would have to stay United and leave that gas in Russia.

At the end of the game, it was a lack of revenue from historically low commodities prices that ended up really breaking up the Soviet Union.  In theory it could be done this way, but there is a lot of game left for Putin to play in sacrificing his own people's well being to get there.  Heck NK has been doing exactly that since they quit actively shooting at SK, and they are still holding on.  Iran has basically been under sanctions since 1979, and they are still holding on.

[Balta1701]

1 minute ago, southsider2k5 said:

At the end of the game, it was a lack of revenue from historically low commodities prices that ended up really breaking up the Soviet Union.  In theory it could be done this way, but there is a lot of game left for Putin to play in sacrificing his own people's well being to get there.  Heck NK has been doing exactly that since they quit actively shooting at SK, and they are still holding on.  Iran has basically been under sanctions since 1979, and they are still holding on.

Iran in an interesting case though, because under Obama, unified sanctions brought them to the negotiating table and they fully abandoned their nuclear program. For a targeted goal like that, unified sanctions were extremely effective- the program was not worth it to that regime.

[pettie4sox]

Doesn't anyone have a TL;DR version of the events?  From what I've heard, Russia is just annexing more Russian friendly regions like they did in Crimea in 2014? 

[StrangeSox]

2 minutes ago, pettie4sox said:

Doesn't anyone have a TL;DR version of the events?  From what I've heard, Russia is just annexing more Russian friendly regions like they did in Crimea in 2014? 

This is their stated initiation, but they're taking airports just outside of Kiev at this point. Might be the goal is to quickly crush the Ukrainian military and force capitulation to all of Russia's demands, e.g. formal recognition of the two breakaway regions as independent nations, similar to what happened in Georgia in 2008. Or maybe it's full blown depose-the-government and install a puppet, and have "peacekeeping" forces stick around for a good long while.

[southsider2k5]

4 minutes ago, pettie4sox said:

Doesn't anyone have a TL;DR version of the events?  From what I've heard, Russia is just annexing more Russian friendly regions like they did in Crimea in 2014? 

That is Putin's version.

[StrangeSox]

Whatever you think of Rubio, domestic politics etc., he is the top GOP on Senate Intelligence and has basically been live tweeting the anticipated/known script of Russian actions based on US intelligence briefings since yesterday.

 

 

[Texsox]

18 minutes ago, Balta1701 said:

That question will be key to whether or not this invasion succeeds. I do not know the answer.

I don't think anyone does. Pessimistically I believe people vote with their pocketbooks and will gladly sacrifice Ukraine independence for cheap heat. I hope I'm wrong.

[StrangeSox]

 

 

[Quin]

9 minutes ago, pettie4sox said:

Doesn't anyone have a TL;DR version of the events?  From what I've heard, Russia is just annexing more Russian friendly regions like they did in Crimea in 2014? 

Best way to explain this is via a comparison. Obviously, the situations are flipped here in regards to power dynamic.

1. Mexico says "hey, California and Texas have large, historically Mexican populations."

2. Sends over insurgents, which start causing trouble. Also, Mexico has a massive army in this scenario that just happens to camp on the border.

3. US responds, Mexico goes "woah, the US is genociding innocent people of Mexican descent!"

4. Mexico recognizes California and Texas as their own nations.

5. "Actually, Texas and California just want to be a part of Mexico all along!"

6. Suddenly, Mexico decides to invade all of the American west, saying it is has always been culturally Mexican and has no right to exist. Map of Mexico's historical borders for context.

[caulfield12]

Some are speculating they’re basically pushing for as much as the eastern 2/3rd’s of Ukraine…

One thing is certain, it will test NATO and EU solidarity faster than it does the American response.  That said, $7/gallon gas prices will play out with the backdrop of Nov mid-terms on the minds of politicians on both sides.

Germany will be the key.

And, of course, the coziness of China and Russia risks further intl. isolation there, but also the ability for Beijing to study responses in a role play of sorts for a future forecasted Taiwan invasion that would stretch alliance response capacity.