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ZiPs Top 100


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https://blogs.fangraphs.com/zips-2022-top-100-prospects/

 

I think we'd all prefer to be on a scout top 100 but interesting nonetheless. ZiPs:"

To make a long story short, ZiPS is a computer system that attempts to turn an avalanche of data into a player projection. (The Z stands for Szymborski, because I didn’t realize in 2003 that this project would be useful enough that I’d need to think of a good name.)

I like to think that I’ve developed a pretty useful tool over the years, but don’t get me wrong: a projection system is not even remotely a substitute for proper scouting. While ZiPS and other systems like it can see patterns in the data that can be hard for humans to extract, humans have their own unique tricks."

the system likes Jose Rodriguez (80s) and Bryan Ramos (the first unranked player, at 20).

It, as it says above, is interesting. I think for all of us we've been frustrated with the idea that these guys could be so productive, at levels more advanced than their age, consistently - but rarely get any mentions.

This at least lets us know that yes, their production is noteworthy for those reasons. But its a lot of work left to do. 

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Interesting context on Rodriguez - that makes him the 19th ranked shortstop on that list because there's a ton of shortstops.

They also give this blurb down at the bottom about Ramos:

Quote

Then there’s Bryan Ramos. ZiPS absolutely loved Ramos’ season and thought he was even unlucky from a BABIP standpoint. A .244/.345/.415 line for a 19-year-old infielder in a full-season league is solid, and his comps are a who’s who of interesting-ish prospects who developed power, like Jose Valentin and Dan Uggla. I’m not saying that he’s a slam-dunk — ZiPS also loved Arismendy Alcántara — but don’t completely forget his name. Especially since the White Sox didn’t do so well here otherwise.

 

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Keith Law mentioned in his White Sox prospect rankings that Ramos was dealing with shoulder issues last year.  While the comment was used to rationalize why he didn’t play much 3B, I’m sure it impacted his hitting to some extent as well.  Incredibly productive season for the kid and I expect him to start cracking too 100 lists next year and challenge Montgomery, Kath, & Vera for the #1 spot in the system.

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  • 3 weeks later...
On 2/25/2022 at 3:21 PM, southsider2k5 said:

It's probably irrational, but there are about half a dozen under the radar guys who I would not be surprised at all if they were top 100 players in the next year or two.

I'm of the same mind. Unlike with the pre-Covid farm system there seems to be breakout players. Before this year how many prospects had breakout seasons like Ramos, Romy, and Rodriguez did? Previous years' systems had 40/45 FV prospects who would all have incremental development that would fall far short of what was needed to breakout.

You can see this best with the amazing outfield prospect depth the Sox supposedly had between 2017 and 2019. Did any of the big outfield prospects ever have a great season? We were hyped for Basabe, Adolfo, Rutherford, and Luis Gonzalez, but we also had Alex Call, Jameson Fisher, and others who would theoretically be in the 2022 Sox top 20. But we didn't see any of these guys take the next step to become top 100 prospects.

The counterpoint would be that these low level prospects would have breakout seasons before, but nobody would care because we had much better talent in the system. Still, I think that a Bryce Bush and DJ Gladney breakout of two years ago is much less significant than the steps made by our infield prospects this past year. Every infielder in our top prospects except Kath had a good or great season and that's much more exciting than the 5 outfielders hitting for a 110 wrc+ up until AAA where they start hitting sub-100 wrc+ 

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