When (or if) the lockout ends, Carlos Rodon should top the Sox list of signings

[VAfan]

So much has already been written about what the Sox should do to fill out their roster before a season starts, whenever that occurs.  2B, RF, and SP are usually the top 3, with backup catcher and further BP depth also listed. 

For my money, I believe that re-signing Carlos Rodon should be the Sox #1 priority, and if that was all they could do, I'd be okay with that.   Here are the reasons.

1.  Rodon finished 34th in baseball with 5 WAR last year. https://www.espn.com/mlb/war/leaders  That was the second highest total on the team, behind Lance Lynn's 5.4 WAR.   Tim Anderson was the only other Sox player ranked in the top 50, coming in tied for 47th at 4.6 WAR.   (NOTE: I'm drawing WAR numbers from different lists that don't seem consistent, but I don't think if you plug in Baseball Reference or FanGraphs numbers that it changes any of these points.) 

2.  The Sox without Rodon have only 1 lefty starter - Dallas Keuchel - and he had the worst season of any Sox starter last year.  He was so bad down the stretch that he was left off the playoff roster.  The Sox badly need a lefty for some balance. 

3.  Even with the lockout, the Sox need to keep their starters fresh into October if they want to advance in the playoffs.  The meltdown of their starters against Houston doomed the Sox chances.  By adding a 6th starter, and one who can slot at the top of the rotation, the Sox should be able to ease the workload on all so they are pitching strong late.  The last Sox team to win the WS in 2005 was led by a dominant starting staff.  It may be old-school now, but that's partly because no team has a dominant starting staff.  By bringing Rodon back and easing in Kopech, the Sox could have the best starting staff in baseball. 

4.  A corollary of #3 is that the Sox have at least 2 starters who need innings limits -- Michael Kopech, because he's not fully up to speed yet, and Dallas Keuchel, to keep him from vesting his option.  If the Sox don't add a starter like Rodon, they'll be forced to dip into far inferior starting options to cover for those limitations.  And this doesn't even factor in potential injuries that inevitably occur.  

5.  The Sox are not going to come close to signing a similarly impactful player for 2B or RF.  Here's a list of free agents by position, with WAR listed, and including those signed. https://www.mlb.com/news/mlb-2021-22-free-agents-by-position  At 2B, the White Sox actually already signed the 3rd highest FA by WAR in Leury Garcia, at 2.4.  To get a higher WAR FA 2B, the Sox would have to sign Trevor Story and move him to 2B.  That's just not going to happen.  For RF, everyone's favorite is Michael Conforto, listed on that chart with a 2.9 WAR.  (Not sure where that WAR number comes from, as Baseball Reference and Fangraphs both have him at 0.8 WAR in 2021 and only 2.1 WAR in 2020).  That's not much of an upgrade from the trio of Sox players eligible to fill out DH/RF this year -- Sheets/Vaughn/Engel.  

6.  Rodon is going to be way more valuable as a TOR ACE than the 9th player in the batting order at 2B, or another bottom of the batting order hitter in RF.   The Sox have Anderson, Moncada, Robert, Abreu, Grandal, and Jimenez penciled in from 1-6.   They aren't going to add anyone who will supplant those top-6 batters.  Meanwhile Rodon was the best pitcher in the AL in the first half last season.  

7.  Rodon doesn't hurt or slow the development of anyone on the Sox -- he essentially just hastens the elimination of Dallas Keuchel, who needs to be phased out anyway, and when gone his salary will cover most of the cost of Rodon's contract.  But if the Sox add a new RF like Conforto, not only will that stunt the playing time of Andrew Vaughn, Gavin Sheets, and Adam Engel, but if he's signed for multiple years, it may slow the arrival of Oscar Colas and/or Yoenis Cespedes, at least one of whom should be the Sox RF within a couple years.  Meanwhile, at 2B, the Sox also have multiple guys who are in development, including Romy Gonzalez, who hit 24 HRs between AA-AAA last year, and Yolbert Sanchez.  Granted, they may not be ready to contribute in 2022, but the Sox still have Leury and should be able to add a cheap stop-gap player.  For the Sox to pry away a better 2B, they will have to make a trade, which means weakening another position (or 2) to strengthen 2B.  

8.  Even though my argument is to sign Rodon #1, that wouldn't by itself preclude the Sox from improving at 2B or RF if they found the right fit. 

Will the Sox re-sign Rodon?  I still think it's possible.  I think they didn't offer to tender him because I think if they sign him, they hope to get him for somewhat less than that number, given his late-season arm fatigue and prior injury history.  I believe the Sox are hoping no one gives him a big multi-year contract, and the Sox will be able to match whatever offer Rodon can get on the open market.  I also believe that if the Sox are ready to match what any other team offers, that Rodon would choose to return to the Sox, because he likes the team and his pitching coach in Ethan Katz, who began to unlock his potential. 

As for the money, the Sox could cover most of the cost by trading Kimbrel.  But I actually think the Sox are going to keep Kimbrel and go for it in 2022, hoping that he bounces back and gives the Sox a killer bullpen to go with dominant starters.  

Pitching, if you have it, should win in the postseason, and the Sox pitching has the potential to be even better than their dangerous offense.  Carlos Rodon would be a key part of that.

[caulfield12]

2 hours ago, VAfan said:

So much has already been written about what the Sox should do to fill out their roster before a season starts, whenever that occurs.  2B, RF, and SP are usually the top 3, with backup catcher and further BP depth also listed. 

For my money, I believe that re-signing Carlos Rodon should be the Sox #1 priority, and if that was all they could do, I'd be okay with that.   Here are the reasons.

1.  Rodon finished 34th in baseball with 5 WAR last year. https://www.espn.com/mlb/war/leaders  That was the second highest total on the team, behind Lance Lynn's 5.4 WAR.   Tim Anderson was the only other Sox player ranked in the top 50, coming in tied for 47th at 4.6 WAR.   (NOTE: I'm drawing WAR numbers from different lists that don't seem consistent, but I don't think if you plug in Baseball Reference or FanGraphs numbers that it changes any of these points.) 

2.  The Sox without Rodon have only 1 lefty starter - Dallas Keuchel - and he had the worst season of any Sox starter last year.  He was so bad down the stretch that he was left off the playoff roster.  The Sox badly need a lefty for some balance. 

3.  Even with the lockout, the Sox need to keep their starters fresh into October if they want to advance in the playoffs.  The meltdown of their starters against Houston doomed the Sox chances.  By adding a 6th starter, and one who can slot at the top of the rotation, the Sox should be able to ease the workload on all so they are pitching strong late.  The last Sox team to win the WS in 2005 was led by a dominant starting staff.  It may be old-school now, but that's partly because no team has a dominant starting staff.  By bringing Rodon back and easing in Kopech, the Sox could have the best starting staff in baseball. 

4.  A corollary of #3 is that the Sox have at least 2 starters who need innings limits -- Michael Kopech, because he's not fully up to speed yet, and Dallas Keuchel, to keep him from vesting his option.  If the Sox don't add a starter like Rodon, they'll be forced to dip into far inferior starting options to cover for those limitations.  And this doesn't even factor in potential injuries that inevitably occur.  

5.  The Sox are not going to come close to signing a similarly impactful player for 2B or RF.  Here's a list of free agents by position, with WAR listed, and including those signed. https://www.mlb.com/news/mlb-2021-22-free-agents-by-position  At 2B, the White Sox actually already signed the 3rd highest FA by WAR in Leury Garcia, at 2.4.  To get a higher WAR FA 2B, the Sox would have to sign Trevor Story and move him to 2B.  That's just not going to happen.  For RF, everyone's favorite is Michael Conforto, listed on that chart with a 2.9 WAR.  (Not sure where that WAR number comes from, as Baseball Reference and Fangraphs both have him at 0.8 WAR in 2021 and only 2.1 WAR in 2020).  That's not much of an upgrade from the trio of Sox players eligible to fill out DH/RF this year -- Sheets/Vaughn/Engel.  

6.  Rodon is going to be way more valuable as a TOR ACE than the 9th player in the batting order at 2B, or another bottom of the batting order hitter in RF.   The Sox have Anderson, Moncada, Robert, Abreu, Grandal, and Jimenez penciled in from 1-6.   They aren't going to add anyone who will supplant those top-6 batters.  Meanwhile Rodon was the best pitcher in the AL in the first half last season.  

7.  Rodon doesn't hurt or slow the development of anyone on the Sox -- he essentially just hastens the elimination of Dallas Keuchel, who needs to be phased out anyway, and when gone his salary will cover most of the cost of Rodon's contract.  But if the Sox add a new RF like Conforto, not only will that stunt the playing time of Andrew Vaughn, Gavin Sheets, and Adam Engel, but if he's signed for multiple years, it may slow the arrival of Oscar Colas and/or Yoenis Cespedes, at least one of whom should be the Sox RF within a couple years.  Meanwhile, at 2B, the Sox also have multiple guys who are in development, including Romy Gonzalez, who hit 24 HRs between AA-AAA last year, and Yolbert Sanchez.  Granted, they may not be ready to contribute in 2022, but the Sox still have Leury and should be able to add a cheap stop-gap player.  For the Sox to pry away a better 2B, they will have to make a trade, which means weakening another position (or 2) to strengthen 2B.  

8.  Even though my argument is to sign Rodon #1, that wouldn't by itself preclude the Sox from improving at 2B or RF if they found the right fit. 

Will the Sox re-sign Rodon?  I still think it's possible.  I think they didn't offer to tender him because I think if they sign him, they hope to get him for somewhat less than that number, given his late-season arm fatigue and prior injury history.  I believe the Sox are hoping no one gives him a big multi-year contract, and the Sox will be able to match whatever offer Rodon can get on the open market.  I also believe that if the Sox are ready to match what any other team offers, that Rodon would choose to return to the Sox, because he likes the team and his pitching coach in Ethan Katz, who began to unlock his potential. 

As for the money, the Sox could cover most of the cost by trading Kimbrel.  But I actually think the Sox are going to keep Kimbrel and go for it in 2022, hoping that he bounces back and gives the Sox a killer bullpen to go with dominant starters.  

Pitching, if you have it, should win in the postseason, and the Sox pitching has the potential to be even better than their dangerous offense.  Carlos Rodon would be a key part of that.

Just don’t see it from a financial standpoint…they can get by with Kopech and Lopez, especially with the season abbreviated.

Maybe if the Tigers added two more big names, that might give them some incentive to counter.  Maybe.

But Ilitch’s son in DET is already complaining anout raising the CBT.

 

If anyone expected Conforto to be that player from here on out, he wouldn’t be receiving $75-90 million offers.  Engel can’t stay healthy.  Colas and Cespedes are still not legit candidates for 2022.  Sheets could go all Daniel Palka season 2.  His defense already leaves so much to be desire…and already had a lot of favorable matchups like Viciedo his first season.  Is he really a legitimate everyday OFer?  Odds are against.

Edited March 5, 2022 by caulfield12

[ChiSox59]

If they wanted Rodon, he’d have been extended a QO. Ship has sailed. 

[pcq]

Rodon is looking for around $25M for one year or multi years. He might get $15M or less. Detroit may check him out. 

[poppysox]

1 hour ago, ChiSox59 said:

If they wanted Rodon, he’d have been extended a QO. Ship has sailed. 

I think the WS like him enough but not at the QO level.  Not that he will be available for it but I think the FO would be interested in $16M for 2 years.  Our familiarity with his health should make us the most aware of what we would be buying.

[Jerry McNertney]

Rodon is too fragile physically to sign for big money.

 

[Chicago White Sox]

I’m in the Sox must add a SP group, but if all they did from this point forward is bring back Rodon then that is a disaster of an offseason.  And the OP’s analysis only considers Carlos’ 2021 production and misses his broader body of work and injury history.  Plainly put, if you bring back Rodon there is no guarantee you get the 2021 guy.  If there was, the Sox would have QOed him because a 5 win pitcher on a 1/$19M deal is the steal of the century.  It’s very obvious that either the Sox are concerned in his ability to be healthy next year or are worried that a lack of work ethic in the past will resurface and undo the gains he made last year.  Either way, it’s hard seeing the Sox bring him back at this point.

If you assume Carlos if off the table, there are couple different routes to the address the rotation.  Kershaw would be a tremendous addition if the Sox have the payroll space and he’s willing to come to the south side.  The TOR stuff is still there even if it’s unlikely he’ll give you 30 starts.  However, with Keuchel still in toe, you can baby him a bit and work around any injuries in hopes of keeping him healthy for the playoffs.  He is the only free agent who likely could make an impact in October and would create a strong foursome alongside Giolito, Lynn, & Cease.  This is nice as it prevents you from relying on Dallas or Kopech as your fourth starter in the playoffs.

After Kershaw, you’re looking at a mix of rebound candidates and high variance guys.  Greinke had a strong 2020, but saw all his peripherals fall off in 2021, with K rate dropping to 6.32 per 9 being particularly worrisome.  Smyly was supposed to be a savvy signing this past offseason, but saw his K rate drop by nearly 60% with the Braves.  Archer returned for five ok starts, but the stuff wasn’t fully there and who knows how many innings he’ll be able to provide given he’s coming off only 19 innings the last two years.  Kikuchi put up a nice first half last year with a tremendous groundball rate (a plus for us), but regressed down the stretch and hasn’t put a good full season together since coming stateside.  Pineda put up ok numbers in 2021, but his stuff was significantly worse than prior seasons and he doesn’t have the greatest track record as of late.  Duffy up put excellent stats in 12 starts for the Royals last year (3.40 FIP | 1.6 fWAR), but his health status is a major question mark at the moment.  

One of those guys probably has a really nice 2022 season but they are all more or less complete gambles and odds are you get one who provides mediocre production.  If you’re just looking for innings, then Tyler Anderson could be an option, but I’d like more ceiling out of any rotation addition as we’re an injury away from needing both Keuchel & Kopech to make starts in the playoffs.  To me, it quickly becomes sign Kershaw or go the trade route to address the rotation.  The challenge here, which I’ve mentioned repeatedly, is we have one of the worst farm systems in baseball.  Unless you’re willing to trade Vaughn, we are greatly limited in who’d be able to acquire via trade.

Let’s get this out of the way, any starter worth a damn with more than two years of control at even reasonable rates is going to be off the table.  As such, we’re looking at a very limited population of starters.  The A’s & Reds each have three guys who meet this criteria in Bassitt (1), Manaea (2), & Montas (2) and Castillo (2), Gray (2), & Mahnle (2) respectively, making them our most likely trade partners.  Even within this group, I think that Castillo, Mahnle, & Montas are probably too costly for us.  As such, that leaves Bassitt or Manaea from the A’s or Gray from the Reds as reasonable targets.

From a cost standpoint, I think Bassitt & Manaea are going to cost less than what Lynn went for last offseason and won’t command a consensus top 100 prospect.  Gray will definitely be more expensive given the extra year of control and is probably pushing our capabilities to the limits.  Now, when looking at our farm system, I see 11 guys who can move the needle in a trade and I’d break them out into a couple of groups.  First, we have four prospects that I consider untouchable at the moment in Montgomery, Kath, Colas, & Veras (as their value should grow considerably next year).  After them, you’ve got the trio of young arms in Kelley, Dalquist, & Thompson, two younger positional guys in Rodriguez & Ramos, and two older positional guys in Burger & Cespedes.  I’dd also add Sheets to that 3rd group assuming we add a RF.

So out of the pieces mentioned above, what would it take to land Bassitt or Manaea?  Honestly, I think a trade built around one of Burger or Sheets and one of the three young arms could get a deal done.  Perhaps a throw-in such is needed, in particular for Bassitt, but I truly believe we’d be in the ballpark right there as rentals just don’t go for crazy prices anymore.  And’s the A’s are going to be highly motivated to move these guys and could use a power bat to replace Chapman & Olson who are likely to be moved in the near future.

As for Gray, things start to get more tricky.  It’s hard to determine what the Reds are trying to accomplish next year as they have some nice young pieces but are cash strapped and plagued with several bad contracts.  I don’t see them fully rebuilding, but I also don’t see them as legitimate playoff contenders either.  As such, I could see them wanting a mix of current & long-term value.  Given our lack of top 100 prospects, this is going to have to be a quantity over quality package.  Does a package built around Burger or Sheets, Ramos or Rodriguez, one of the young arms, plus Cespedes get us in the ballpark?  I personally think it does as it’s four top 10 prospects, which even from a weak system, is pretty substantial.

So in conclusion, I feel like there are three legit options to address the rotation if we’re serious about winning a championship next year:

1. Sign Kershaw to a ~2/$45M contract (assuming he’s even open to coming here)
2. Acquire Bassitt or Manaea for Sheets/Burger + Kelley/Dalquist/Thompson + throw-in
3. Acquire Gray for Sheets/Burger + Ramos/Rodriguez + Kelley/Dalquist/Thompson + Cespedes

Adding Kershaw at that price will likely limit what we can do for RF / 2B, while making either trade weakens a bottom five farm system.  There isn’t a perfect option here, but if we want to win a World Series next year we can’t bank on Keuchel & Kopech to be 2/5 of our rotation.  An addition is needed and preferably an impactful one.

[Bob Sacamano]

I just hate trading for a rental knowing we will probably trade for another rental next off-season as well. Maybe Bassitt being 33 is a realistic option to extend/re-sign?

Edited March 5, 2022 by Bob Sacamano

[Chicago White Sox]

18 minutes ago, Bob Sacamano said:

I just hate trading for a rental knowing we will probably trade for another rental next off-season as well. Maybe Bassitt being 33 is a realistic option to extend/re-sign?

By next offseason Kopech could be our ace with Giolito, Lynn, & Cease behind him.  At that point you just need a #5 starter and that should be easy enough to add via free agency.

I can’t stress this enough, but our rotation is the one thing that could prevent us from making the playoffs.  If we suffer any injury to one of the big three starters and Keuchel doesn’t improve substantially from his 2021 form we could be in legit trouble.  Serious contenders don’t enter a season with two question marks and limited depth.  A starter needs to be added even if it weakens the farm.

[Two-Gun Pete]

Yes, I agree that finding another solution for SP should be the #1 priority, whenever the lockout ends.

Yes, I agree that losing Rodon's production will suck forcefully. 

 

That said, I do not know if Rodon is the best solution or not, given his body of work. At the right price? Sure.

I also do not want this front office to trade, especially with the Oakland FO, who have b!tch-slapped and curb-stomped the SOX FO in each and every transaction, for decades. This, going back to trading a ~3 fWAR Ray Durham for a middle relief prospect in Jon Adkins. And continued with the Koch and Samardzija robberies.

I also do not want them to prioritize signing Conforto, because just as Kimbrel could not help the lineup last season, so too is Conforto unable to help the rotation.

 

I would prefer that they use good old-fashioned American Dollars to sign a ~2-ish fWAR solution(s) for SP/swing man. This can help close the lost Rodon fWAR; the rest could be recovered through improved overall health in the roster, AND through losing Kimbrel's negative fWAR.

The other virtue in NOT trading for a SP is that other holes in the roster will appear later in 2022, and 2023. Squandering trade assets NOW on something that can reasonably be acquired with JUST cash is window-shortening, and is stoopid.

 

Once again, just buy the best SP/swing man that fits the budget, and go from there. If it precludes signing a luxury item like Conforto, so be it. Just fix the rotation as best you can first.

Edited March 5, 2022 by Two-Gun Pete

[Chicago White Sox]

24 minutes ago, Two-Gun Pete said:

Yes, I agree that finding another solution for SP should be the #1 priority, whenever the lockout ends.

Yes, I agree that losing Rodon's production will suck forcefully. 

 

That said, I do not know if Rodon is the best solution or not, given his body of work. At the right price? Sure.

I also do not want this front office to trade, especially with the Oakland FO, who have b!tch-slapped and curb-stomped the SOX FO in each and every transaction, for decades. This, going back to trading a ~3 fWAR Ray Durham for a middle relief prospect in Jon Adkins. And continued with the Koch and Samardzija robberies.

I also do not want them to prioritize signing Conforto, because just as Kimbrel could not help the lineup last season, so too is Conforto unable to help the rotation.

 

I would prefer that they use good old-fashioned American Dollars to sign a ~2-ish fWAR solution(s) for SP/swing man. This can help close the lost Rodon fWAR; the rest could be recovered through improved overall health in the roster, AND through losing Kimbrel's negative fWAR.

The other virtue in NOT trading for a SP is that other holes in the roster will appear later in 2022, and 2023. Squandering trade assets NOW on something that can reasonably be acquired with JUST cash is window-shortening, and is stoopid.

 

Once again, just buy the best SP/swing man that fits the budget, and go from there. If it precludes signing a luxury item like Conforto, so be it. Just fix the rotation as best you can first.

I really don’t see how Conforto is a luxury item.  This team struggles against tough RHP and our RF defense got exposed in the playoffs.  Our team desperately needs to address both areas to be successful come October and more so than adding a 2 win SP.  Realistically, we need both a big left-handed and another #3 type pitcher.  Can’t be afraid to lose a trade at the peak of our competitive window.

[Balta1701]

1 hour ago, Chicago White Sox said:

I’m in the Sox must add a SP group, but if all they did from this point forward is bring back Rodon then that is a disaster of an offseason.  And the OP’s analysis only considers Carlos’ 2021 production and misses his broader body of work and injury history.  Plainly put, if you bring back Rodon there is no guarantee you get the 2021 guy.  If there was, the Sox would have QOed him because a 5 win pitcher on a 1/$19M deal is the steal of the century.  It’s very obvious that either the Sox are concerned in his ability to be healthy next year or are worried that a lack of work ethic in the past will resurface and undo the gains he made last year.  Either way, it’s hard seeing the Sox bring him back at this point.

There are a couple other options you didn’t note here. First of all, the White Sox’s front office could just be dumb and think they can easily find another 5 win pitcher. 

Alternatively and more worth discussing, if Rodon was on the market in early 2021, had several $3 million offers, and the White Sox offered Boras a handshake agreement that they would not give him a QO, I bet both sides would go along with that and that could be the reason he stayed. Boras hates the QO so he would think removing that is a solid service for his client, and the White Sox would certainly risk being in this situation and having a much higher long term cost to save a half million in the short term.

If the second was the case, there could still be some interest. Whether they could fit him and other additions in under the tax is a bigger question.

[Chicago White Sox]

1 minute ago, Balta1701 said:

There are a couple other options you didn’t note here. First of all, the White Sox’s front office could just be dumb and think they can easily find another 5 win pitcher. 

Alternatively and more worth discussing, if Rodon was on the market in early 2021, had several $3 million offers, and the White Sox offered Boras a handshake agreement that they would not give him a QO, I bet both sides would go along with that and that could be the reason he stayed. Boras hates the QO so he would think removing that is a solid service for his client, and the White Sox would certainly risk being in this situation and having a much higher long term cost to save a half million in the short term.

If the second was the case, there could still be some interest. Whether they could fit him and other additions in under the tax is a bigger question.

I agree that the “handshake agreement” theory could be an explanation for why the Sox did not offer Rodon a QO, but his health was so shitty down the stretch and in recent years that I think it has to do more with that.  Regardless, I’d be happy if the Sox brought him back after not QOing him as it means medicals were the never the issue.  Just don’t think that will be the case and that we’ll need to explore other options.

[Two-Gun Pete]

1 hour ago, Chicago White Sox said:

I can’t stress this enough, but our rotation is the one thing that could prevent us from making the playoffs. 

You said this, with which I agree.

29 minutes ago, Chicago White Sox said:

I really don’t see how Conforto is a luxury item.  This team struggles against tough RHP and our RF defense got exposed in the playoffs. 

There are other and cheaper ways to solve RF defense.

But between better health from our starting 9, and the TDL, this FO can find v RHP solutions. (Assuming they don't do something abjectly stupid once again, getting something that they don't need.)

The v RHP issue is for advancing in the playoffs. But you and I agree:

The Rotation could keep this team from GETTING TO the playoffs in the first place. So, its become clear that the rotation is the bigger need.

Thats why I view Conforto as "a want," while a proper ~2 fWAR SP solution is "a need."

[Balta1701]

42 minutes ago, Chicago White Sox said:

I agree that the “handshake agreement” theory could be an explanation for why the Sox did not offer Rodon a QO, but his health was so shitty down the stretch and in recent years that I think it has to do more with that.  Regardless, I’d be happy if the Sox brought him back after not QOing him as it means medicals were the never the issue.  Just don’t think that will be the case and that we’ll need to explore other options.

I just think he will get more than the white Sox can afford. I do worry about him winding up in Minnesota or Detroit on a deal that is like 3 years with an opt out after 1 and doing serious damage to the White Sox, if there is a season.

[Chicago White Sox]

10 minutes ago, Two-Gun Pete said:

You said this, with which I agree.

There are other and cheaper ways to solve RF defense.

But between better health from our starting 9, and the TDL, this FO can find v RHP solutions. (Assuming they don't do something abjectly stupid once again, getting something that they don't need.)

The v RHP issue is for advancing in the playoffs. But you and I agree:

The Rotation could keep this team from GETTING TO the playoffs in the first place. So, its become clear that the rotation is the bigger need.

Thats why I view Conforto as "a want," while a proper ~2 fWAR SP solution is "a need."

Ultimately I think both are needs, more so than breaking than the bank on a 2B.  Give me a Brad Miller / Leury Garcia platoon at 2B if it allows me to add a left-handed RF and a legit SP.  I’m not sure 2 fWAR pitcher is going to help us in the playoffs and right now Keuchel is the dude starting a potential game 4.  It’s time to break the bank and plug our holes with quality options that can help us in October.  The trade deadline should be used to address problem areas that arise during the season.

[Chicago White Sox]

Just now, Balta1701 said:

I just think he will get more than the white Sox can afford. I do worry about him winding up in Minnesota or Detroit on a deal that is like 3 years with an opt out after 1 and doing serious damage to the White Sox, if there is a season.

There will be a season and we’re already seeing the players caving with a 14 team playoff format.  Regardless, if the Sox can’t afford Rodon or Kershaw, then they need to go to the trade market to address the rotation.  I’m done with Nomar Mazara’s and Adam Eaton’s being used to fill important needs.  It’s time to stop fucking around and win a World Series.

[Chicago White Sox]

Good article from @Y2Jimmy0 on this very subject

https://www.southsidesox.com/2022/2/14/22925472/chicago-white-sox-offseason-needs-pitching

[Sarava]

I don't think there was any QO agreement with Boras. Rodon barely got a major league deal last year. That just wasn't on anyone's radar. Bottom line is - Reinsdorf is risk-adverse. That's why I figured they wouldn't offer the QO. He doesn't want to pay someone 17.8 mil to sit on the DL for 3/4 of the season.

And I agree with CWS - a starter is a must here, though I suspect knowing the Sox past, they will look for a reclamation project to fill that hole on the cheap. And that's ok if they spend the cash on other holes. You cant spend a fortune on every hole.

[Two-Gun Pete]

1 hour ago, Chicago White Sox said:

Ultimately I think both are needs, more so than breaking than the bank on a 2B.  Give me a Brad Miller / Leury Garcia platoon at 2B if it allows me to add a left-handed RF and a legit SP.  I’m not sure 2 fWAR pitcher is going to help us in the playoffs and right now Keuchel is the dude starting a potential game 4.  It’s time to break the bank and plug our holes with quality options that can help us in October.  The trade deadline should be used to address problem areas that arise during the season.

I think that SP is the biggest need, as per your comment and Jimmy's article. Trading for one would be a disaster, both from the aspect of RH/KW getting humiliated once again in trade, but also given that there will be needs at the TDL. And that's with the already-depleted MiLB system.

I also agree that whoever they get for 2B will be disappointing, be it Miller and him being ancient, or Villar's questionable glove. Just get a warm body that won't fuck up the clubhouse, and who can bring cromulence to the position. Honestly, in looking at what's available in the marketplace, I think we should be happy if they don't add negative WAR to the position, and/or are forced to overplay Leury.

But asking this FO to first win a negotiation vs. Boras for Conforto, THEN win a negotiation against Billy Beane or a 33 year old, pre-injured Bassitt whose numbers may be artificially inflated due to pitching in Oakland is suboptimal, TBH. Especially in a shortened FA period.

 

For SP, I'd look at: Kershaw, Greinke, Rodon, Pineda, Perez, Kikuchi, or Kim. Find the best one at the best price first.

For RF, after securing a SP, I'd look at Conforto or Suzuki, or possibly Pederson; I'm more interested in someone being able to field the position/reduce wear and tear on Robert, TBH. But I wouldn't squander time chasing one of these while whatever value in the SP market is swallowed up by our enemies before we can get a SP.

Lastly, for 2B, either Miller or Villar; both kinda suck, but that's what happens when your FO does stupid things.

Edited March 5, 2022 by Two-Gun Pete

[The Mighty Mite]

5 hours ago, Jerry McNertney said:

Rodon is too fragile physically to sign for big money.

 

This.

[Chicago White Sox]

9 minutes ago, Two-Gun Pete said:

I think that SP is the biggest need, as per your comment and Jimmy's article. Trading for one would be a disaster, both from the aspect of RH/KW getting humiliated once again in trade, but also given that there will be needs at the TDL. And that's with the already-depleted MiLB system.

I also agree that whoever they get for 2B will be disappointing, be it Miller and him being ancient, or Villar's questionable glove. Just get a warm body that won't fuck up the clubhouse, and who can bring cromulence to the position. Honestly, in looking at what's available in the marketplace, I think we should be happy if they don't add negative WAR to the position, and/or are forced to overplay Leury.

But asking this FO to first win a negotiation vs. Boras for Conforto, THEN win a negotiation against Billy Beane or a 33 year old, pre-injured Bassitt whose numbers may be artificially inflated due to pitching in Oakland is suboptimal, TBH. Especially in a shortened FA period.

 

For SP, I'd look at: Kershaw, Greinke, Rodon, Pineda, Perez, Kikuchi, or Kim. Find the best one at the best price first.

For RF, after securing a SP, I'd look at Conforto or Suzuki, or possibly Pederson; I'm more interested in someone being able to field the position/reduce wear and tear on Robert, TBH. But I wouldn't squander time chasing one of these while whatever value in the SP market is swallowed up by our enemies before we can get a SP.

Lastly, for 2B, either Miller or Villar; both kinda suck, but that's what happens when your FO does stupid things.

Couple things here.  I think we both agree the rotation can’t be ignored.  The key difference is I want an arm that can help in October and not just one that help us get us there.  Don’t get me wrong, I’d take Pineda over nothing, but would rather trade for a more impactful arm if those are my two options.

I also think RF defense is important, but that getting a left-handed bat is equally as important.  We’ve too right-handed for way too long and need better balance if we want to take that next step.  The perfect solution is a RF who hits well from the left side and can be average with the glove.

Finally, I don’t think Brad Miller sucks if used properly.  At a bare minimum, he’s capable enough in a platoon role to get us to the trade deadline.

[Jack Parkman]

Don't quote me on this, but I think I saw somewhere the Sox are last in MLB in fWAR from RF since they traded Alex Rios. And both Sheets and Vaughn are only 1st basemen. People are forgetting how RF is and has been a supermassive black hole for the Sox for the better part of a decade. 

Edited March 5, 2022 by Jack Parkman

[Two-Gun Pete]

2 minutes ago, Chicago White Sox said:

Couple things here.  I think we both agree the rotation can’t be ignored.  The key difference is I want an arm that can help in October and not just one that help us get us there.  Don’t get me wrong, I’d take Pineda over nothing, but would rather trade for a more impactful arm if those are my two options.

 

Finally, I don’t think Brad Miller sucks if used properly.  At a bare minimum, he’s capable enough in a platoon role to get us to the trade deadline.

Fair point on the rotation, and to be fair to you, I should clarify. I think the OD rotation does not necessarily have to be the playoff rotation. For me, my goal is to limit Kopech's IP, so that he's available for the post-season. Also, unless Keuchel finds a way to beat back the invincible Father Time for a bit, I also don't relish seeing him pitch in the post-season. I view it as:

OD: Giolito, Lynn, Cease, FA SP from the above list, Keuchel. Kopech in  AA or AAA slowly getting ramped up for a recall in late May/early June, one of Crochet and Lopez either in the pen, or the 6th SP in Charlotte.

Post Season: Giolito, Lynn, Cease, FA SP from the above list, Kopech. Keuchel as swing man or off the Post season roster, and the best of Crochet and/or Lopez on the post season roster. 

 

On Brad Miller, he produced less fWAR in 140 games last season than the hated Nick Madrigal produced in 54 games. Yeah, he's "just a guy," which given his likely salary, kinda sucks. He's the living embodiment of "meh," TBH. Honestly, looking at the available MI on the market, they all kinda suck, unless you think this FO will splurge on Correa or Story. If you think that, I'd like some of what you're smoking.

Whoever they get for 2B, should just stay out of trouble, keep their pieholes shut, stay healthy, and catch whatever's hit at them. That's all we can hope for, IMO.

[HOFHurt35]

8 hours ago, caulfield12 said:

Just don’t see it from a financial standpoint…they can get by with Kopech and Lopez, especially with the season abbreviated.

Maybe if the Tigers added two more big names, that might give them some incentive to counter.  Maybe.

But Ilitch’s son in DET is already complaining anout raising the CBT.

 

If anyone expected Conforto to be that player from here on out, he wouldn’t be receiving $75-90 million offers.  Engel can’t stay healthy.  Colas and Cespedes are still not legit candidates for 2022.  Sheets could go all Daniel Palka season 2.  His defense already leaves so much to be desire…and already had a lot of favorable matchups like Viciedo his first season.  Is he really a legitimate everyday OFer?  Odds are against.

 

Vaughn has to play somewhere, and it's not going to be DH.

So unless he's being traded, I don't see how the Sox can go sign Conforto. 

I believe RF and DH will be a mix and mitch situation, and that's not a bad thing.   Especially if we wat to keep Grandal's bat in the lineup when he doesn't catch.  Grandal to 1B would be the option with Abreu taking a day off at DH, especially with a good LH  pitcher on that night.  

2B is the most glaring hole on this team. 

That's where I'd focus all my attention.