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Offseason Part 2 - Lets the Rumors & Action Begin


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8 minutes ago, southsider2k5 said:

Just cash doesn't help you if you still need to replace the guy.  It also means you have less just cash later on if he inevitably gets hurt again.

Just cash means that you still have trade assets to later replace HIM if need be, or to close any other holes that will inevitably appear over the course of the season.

 

Trading away scarce trade assets means you don't have that flexibility and downside protection.

Just cash is a cogent plan; trading away scarce assets leads to "hopes and wishes," as in:

"I HOPE no one gets hurt." Or:

"I HOPE no one underperforms." Or:

"I WISH we still had trade assets to fix this new hole in our roster." Or:

"I WISH we had a piece to go vulture some other team's firesale."

Edited by Two-Gun Pete
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Just now, Two-Gun Pete said:

Just cash means that you still have trade assets to later replace HIM if need be, or to close any other holes that will inevitably appear over the course of the season.

 

Trading away scarce trade assets means you don't have that flexibility and downside protection.

Just cash is a cogent plan; trading away scarce assets leads to "hopes and wishes," as in:

"I HOPE no one gets hurt." Or:

"I HOPE no one underperforms." Or:

"I WISH we still had trade assets to fix this new hole in our roster." Or:

"I WISH we had a piece to go vulture some other team's firesale."

You still need to pay the guys you aquire, and if you blow it all on a 25 million a year deal for a guy who is always hurt, that cash is gone.

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21 minutes ago, SoxBlanco said:

Comparison of three pitchers over the past two seasons:

Pitcher A:  41 GS, 241 IP, 3.62 FIP

Pitcher B:  38 GS, 220 IP, 3.41 FIP

Pitcher ? 43 GS, 251 IP, 3.62 FIP

There isn't enough here for this to be a "Who would you rather have?" game, but does anyone want to guess who the three pitchers are here?

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35 minutes ago, GreenSox said:

Those trades looked terrible at the time they were made.  In retrospect, they were disastrous.
The same GM and the same #2 are still in charge, so it's impossible to forget them (nor should they be).  And I would prefer that they dynamic duo not create another "have to rebuild" situation.

They didn't look terrible at the time of the trade.  They were risky...as all trades are.  You know how many on here were trashing the Lance Lynn trade and fitting Dane Dunning for his Cooperstown hat?   Justin Verlander in 2017 looked a LOT like James Shields in 2016...but then he went back to superhuman and Shields continued to be trash.  IF Shields had instead become 2018 Verlander...and you have Sale, Quintana and very promising young Rodon it could have worked.  Don't get me wrong...I MUCH prefer how the White Sox have done it now...with a dozen all-star caliber players instead of four.  But at the time they were trying to play the hand they were dealt...Sale/Quintana/Abreu/Eaton were too good to allow them top picks but not good enough to push them forward...so you play for the inside straight.  It didn't work...oh well.    

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48 minutes ago, poppysox said:

Wouldn't be the first time people liked the pedigree of former 1st rounders.  Rebuilding clubs often go for multiple prospects when they need help everywhere.  

Collins has almost zero value and Burger is never going to be the centerpiece for a star like Ketel Marte.  Not even remotely close to the cost.

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3 minutes ago, Chicago White Sox said:

Collins has almost zero value and Burger is never going to be the centerpiece for a star like Ketel Marte.  Not even remotely close to the cost.

Fine, you've convinced me. We throw in Yermin.

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31 minutes ago, Chicago White Sox said:

Vaughn & Sheets were Jermaine Dye bad in RF.  The defense will suffer much more than a bit.  Was I the only who watched the playoffs and saw Leury’s shit defense cost us in the OF?  Just get an average fielder out there and it will allow Robert to cheat more towards LF and offset the shit defense we can’t avoid out there.

You mean they were as bad as the RF the last time they won the World Series?   But young and cheap and part of the future?   Remember you have Engel as your defensive outfielder probably 40% of the time.  Vaughn was brand new at RF and will get better.  Shields is mostly a situational piece.   And I know you hate this but...not one of them is as bad as Manny Ramirez in the outfield with his ten time All Star appearances and multiple World Series wins.  

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2 minutes ago, michelangelosmonkey said:

You mean they were as bad as the RF the last time they won the World Series?   But young and cheap and part of the future?   Remember you have Engel as your defensive outfielder probably 40% of the time.  Vaughn was brand new at RF and will get better.  Shields is mostly a situational piece.   And I know you hate this but...not one of them is as bad as Manny Ramirez in the outfield with his ten time All Star appearances and multiple World Series wins.  

Sheets and Vaughn are terrible in the OF because they can't move/cover ground. Manny Ramirez never had that issue. 

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5 minutes ago, michelangelosmonkey said:

You mean they were as bad as the RF the last time they won the World Series?   But young and cheap and part of the future?   Remember you have Engel as your defensive outfielder probably 40% of the time.  Vaughn was brand new at RF and will get better.  Shields is mostly a situational piece.   And I know you hate this but...not one of them is as bad as Manny Ramirez in the outfield with his ten time All Star appearances and multiple World Series wins.  

First of all, Dye was not as bad in 05 as he was in 06 and later.

Secondly, one OF black hole perhaps we can deal with. That roster had an excellent CF and an excellent defensive LF. Robert should be ok but we have some worry about that injury lingering, and Eloy isn’t exactly on Podsenik’s legs in LF.

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Just now, ChiSox59 said:

I am sort of astonished there hasn't been any action leaguewide.  

Boras is pissed his executive committee didn't block the ratification. He is not talking to the owners. :)

 

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1 minute ago, ChiSox59 said:

I am sort of astonished there hasn't been any action leaguewide.  

I would expect there to be some negotiations for about a day after the deal was agreed to. This afternoon/evening I would think we start seeing guys come off the board pretty quickly.

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46 minutes ago, Chicago White Sox said:

There is almost no chance that Adolfo is a part of this organization five weeks from now, Cespedes wasn’t very good last year from an offensive perspective, and Colas has played zero games in the US.  We should not let any of these guys impact the decision-making in the midst of our competitive window.  Remember when we thought one of Rutherford, Basabe, Gonzalez, Adolfo, Cordell, Tilson, etc. would be the answer for RF?  Unfortunately that did not work out for us.

And I don’t think there is any chance a Vaughn/Sheets/Engel is going to match a healthy Conforto.  The bulk of any offensive value the first two guys provide would be negated by their extremely poor defensive contributions.  We’ve dicked around with RF for far too long and need to get it right while we’re legit World Series contenders.

Yes it's terrible about Adolfo...he's only 24 and put up an .850 OPS at Birmingham last year.  I just wish they had him one more year.   As for Cespedes...he put up an .800+ OPS in his first taste of baseball after being out for a year and a half.  He was terrible in the AFL but SSS?   The point isn't that I hate Conforto...but there is always a budget and the question is...is this the guy you want to pay $20 million a year for the next four years.   You talk about offensively terrible for Cespedes...Conforto WAS terrible last year...it IS a risk that he's declining.  I want the window to be open as long as it can be...part of that is not getting a big acquisition wrong...when you have potential solutions near term and long term. 

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27 minutes ago, michelangelosmonkey said:

They didn't look terrible at the time of the trade.  They were risky...as all trades are.  You know how many on here were trashing the Lance Lynn trade and fitting Dane Dunning for his Cooperstown hat?   Justin Verlander in 2017 looked a LOT like James Shields in 2016...but then he went back to superhuman and Shields continued to be trash.  IF Shields had instead become 2018 Verlander...and you have Sale, Quintana and very promising young Rodon it could have worked.  Don't get me wrong...I MUCH prefer how the White Sox have done it now...with a dozen all-star caliber players instead of four.  But at the time they were trying to play the hand they were dealt...Sale/Quintana/Abreu/Eaton were too good to allow them top picks but not good enough to push them forward...so you play for the inside straight.  It didn't work...oh well.    

Sure, but Shields wasn't even a TOR starter at the end of his Royals' career, let alone with the Padres, and his stuff had clearly eroded from his Big Game James days in Tampa...you were never going to get Verlander-Esque results from him in a million years.

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10 minutes ago, ChiSox59 said:

I am sort of astonished there hasn't been any action leaguewide.  

The GMs are all nervous about being first.  Playing the dare game with each other.

"Go on, Smart Ass, do it."

"I dare you to go first."

"Well, I double dare you!"

"I double DOG dare you!"

"I triple DOG dare you!" A major breach of etiquette.

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3 minutes ago, caulfield12 said:

Sure, but Shields wasn't even a TOR starter at the end of his Royals' career, let alone with the Padres, and his stuff had clearly eroded from his Big Game James days in Tampa...you were never going to get Verlander-Esque results from him in a million years.

Shields had put up 19 WAR in the previous 5 seasons and had a +.7 WAR in 11 starts that year.  His ERA was 3.0 after 10 starts and then he had that horrible start where he gave up 10 runs in 2 innings.  You could, at the time, say that presaged a miserable decline (which it did) or you could say it was an outlier and we were getting a great 4th starter to help us reach the playoffs.   It wasn't stupid...it didn't work.     

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23 minutes ago, Jack Parkman said:

Sheets and Vaughn are terrible in the OF because they can't move/cover ground. Manny Ramirez never had that issue. 

So Jack...what is worse?  I feel like Vaughn catches everything he can get to...but he's super slow.  With smart positioning and his improving learning curve he can be a Conforto level outfielder.  Manny could get to things he just couldn't catch them....that's not fixable.    

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2 minutes ago, michelangelosmonkey said:

Shields had put up 19 WAR in the previous 5 seasons and had a +.7 WAR in 11 starts that year.  His ERA was 3.0 after 10 starts and then he had that horrible start where he gave up 10 runs in 2 innings.  You could, at the time, say that presaged a miserable decline (which it did) or you could say it was an outlier and we were getting a great 4th starter to help us reach the playoffs.   It wasn't stupid...it didn't work.     

People like to judge results rather than the judging the decision at the time it was made.  If Lynn had sucked last year, and Dunning had a great year, people would be here saying, "The trade didn't make sense at the time, regardless of results. You don't trade 6 years of a promising, young prospect for 1 year of a pitcher who is aging and could fall off a cliff at any time."

Now, I understand the hate for the Shields trade obviously, but my point remains about how people tend to judge trades. If Kimbrel was lights out and we won the World Series, nobody would be complaining about that trade. We took a gamble, and it turned out to be awful. 

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