Offseason Part 2 - Lets the Rumors & Action Begin

[chw42]

3 minutes ago, Two-Gun Pete said:

Holy shit, I just looked.

 

JD was -1 DRS in '05, but by '07, he was -27!!! In a corner OF position.

It's almost like players' speed and legs decline after their age 31 season. 

Dye actually had a 104 wRC+ in 2007, but ended up being worth -1.2 WAR because of his awful defense. 

Edited March 11, 2022 by chw42

[chitownsportsfan]

2 minutes ago, Two-Gun Pete said:

Holy shit, I just looked.

 

JD was -1 DRS in '05, but by '07, he was -27!!! In a corner OF position.

Once his legs started to go he was a statue. I remember some jokes about him and Konerko in a straight line race to first around the time. 

[michelangelosmonkey]

32 minutes ago, Two-Gun Pete said:

1. Incorrect. Justin Verlander was in the middle of a 4.1 fWAR season at age 34. He went for 5.4, 3.1, and 3.2 fWAR in the 3 seasons prior to then. So no, Verlander wasn't in any sort of decline as Shields was.

2. I think the SOX FO didn't do any sort of projections at the time, or ignored them, or a combination. Back then, KW had a maddening George Custer-like idiocy to always go for it, when prudence dictated otherwise.

3. This is outright false. Shields was traded on 4 June. In the 10 games prior to the trade, they'd gone 2-8, including a 7 game losing streak. In the 15 games before June 4, they went 5-10. They were clearly Free Fallin'. 

4. In Shields' age 33 season, he went for 0.8 fWAR. That means his decline was already beginning the year before the SOX made that moronic trade.

Also, he came pre-injured, which was additionally stoopid.

1) Verlander in Detroit in his 34th year pitched 170 inning with a 4.1 FIP which was his worst in a decade. 

2) Poor old Custer

3) clearly the trade was consummated on the 10th but it was in the works, I suspect, for weeks.   

4) I use WAR...and he was at 1.9 the year before.  Yes he had a down year but not a terrible year...and was off to a strong start in 2016.

Listen...you win the argument because it turned out badly...and because of the lottery ticket...historically badly.  My only point is you can go find instances where getting a 34 year old pitcher turned out good.  Trading assets for Bassitt has every chance of being Shields 2.0.   Or it could turn out great.  It's only after the fact that we can be confidently right or wrong.  (Note I didn't like the trade at the time...mostly because I was optimistic about Eric Johnson...wrong and stupid).  

[Chicago White Sox]

1 hour ago, Whisox05 said:

 

Keuchel to the bullpen confirmed.

[Baron]

I mean the likelihood Hahn is lying in his press conference is high. But honestly I hate the lets keep everything in house as a competitive advantage play. The only time where that's tolerable is when you have a track record of winning. 

[iWiN4PreP]

1 minute ago, Baron said:

I mean the likelihood Hahn is lying in his press conference is high. But honestly I hate the lets keep everything in house as a competitive advantage play. The only time where that's tolerable is when you have a track record of winning. 

100% this.

Just fucking go for it!

[Chicago White Sox]

1 hour ago, Whisox05 said:

 

Clearly negotiating with Boras on a position player.

Regardless, the idea we don’t need to add some sort of 2B is laughable even for a token Rick Hahn managing expectations press conference.

[CaliSoxFanViaSWside]

3 hours ago, Chicago White Sox said:

Wasn’t the Lynn trade a success?

Sure once he was resigned it was. But what if he didn't resign ? Then you lose Rodon and Lynn  and your starting pitching going into the most important years of the window isn't playoff caliber or might not even get you to the playoffs.

[Baron]

 

[Chicago White Sox]

1 hour ago, michelangelosmonkey said:

I feel like we have a potential all-star at 7 of 9 positions...he's not wrong.  Go get Rodon and Tepera and hold your assets to the trade deadline.

When prices are exponentially higher.  You actually want to enter the 2022 season with Leury Garcia as your 2B and both Vaughn & Sheets as regulars?  Seems absolutely nuts to me.

[ShoeLessRob]

Glad to be back, we’re in full Soxtalk off-season mode!

 

[Baron]

3 minutes ago, Chicago White Sox said:

When prices are exponentially higher.  You actually want to enter the 2022 season with Leury Garcia as your 2B and both Vaughn & Sheets as regulars?  Seems absolutely nuts to me.

Shit if we get bounced in the first round I'm going to be banging the drum for Rick Hahn to be fired if that's the case. 

[chitownsportsfan]

3 minutes ago, Baron said:

 

Clubs and their fans who have seen him the last few years however think otherwise. His shoulder might like fine on an MRI or physical exam, we'll see how his shoulder feels in August.

[Chicago White Sox]

59 minutes ago, ChiSox59 said:

Would have definitely preferred he come out and say 2B and RF are big time priorities, but we know they are.  

I think he can downplay RF to the media, but acting like 2B is fine is hilarious unless Tony has taken over and is giving his favorite little Legend a full time job.

[ptatc]

38 minutes ago, southsider2k5 said:

I think the gap between Bassitt and Rodon vs rostered RF vs FA RF is so heavily weighted that the emphasis needs to be spending on a position player if there is limitation on spending.

I always lean towards pitching. There is never enough pitching due to the higher rate of injuries.

[michelangelosmonkey]

11 minutes ago, Chicago White Sox said:

Is your argument can we win a World Series with bad defense out of RF?  I mean sure, anything is possible.  But what you actually said is Vaughn & Sheets would only hurt our defense “a bit” which I fully disagree with.  Now, if you’re telling me I’m somehow getting Hall of Fame offensive production out of Vaughn & Sheets, then sure, I’ll endure some shit defense but that seems a bit optimistic to me

Also, not sure what you mean we got Engel as our defensive OF 40% of the time.  Are you suggesting he comes into each game during the 6th?

I would think Engel plays a fair bit as the starter, and yes, comes in most games in the 7th inning as a defensive replacement.  And yes, I think Vaughn has a chance to be a hall of fame hitter.  IF we can develop him so he can play multiple positions he is even more valuable.  I mean honestly we talk about these guys like they are car parts...you can't put the carburetor where the windshield wiper goes.  These are human athletes that play baseball.   Vaughn never played outfield before and they put him out there and he was OK.  As he figures out angles and positioning he should be better.  To just categorically say...too slow...he will be terrible...I think is unfair.  I also think it is unfair to say Eloy will always be a terrible outfielder.  These are 24 year old athletes and they should get better with experience.  Look at Tim Anderson...he was NOT a good short stop in the minors but he was newish at baseball....he was a -1.5dWar in 2017 and now he's a +1dWar.   There's a chance for hope.  At the same time there are plenty on here that want to pay Nick Casellanos, the 30 year old with a career -10dWar, and there is NO CHANCE he is going to develop into an OK fielder.  I would take Vaughn over NC for many reasons.   

[SoCalChiSox]

8 minutes ago, Chicago White Sox said:

Clearly negotiating with Boras on a position player.

 

Agreed and this is a great sign re: Conforto. 

NSC also noted that Hahn is intentionally BSing  on the SP is #1 priority claim.

Let's get this deal locked down today with MC. Then move Kimbrel and make the OAK trade. Get everyone in camp on Sunday.

[Tnetennba]

1 hour ago, Bob Sacamano said:

I would expect there to be some negotiations for about a day after the deal was agreed to. This afternoon/evening I would think we start seeing guys come off the board pretty quickly.

I will be pretty upset if everything breaks while I'm at work tomorrow.

[caulfield12]

1 minute ago, michelangelosmonkey said:

I would think Engel plays a fair bit as the starter, and yes, comes in most games in the 7th inning as a defensive replacement.  And yes, I think Vaughn has a chance to be a hall of fame hitter.  IF we can develop him so he can play multiple positions he is even more valuable.  I mean honestly we talk about these guys like they are car parts...you can't put the carburetor where the windshield wiper goes.  These are human athletes that play baseball.   Vaughn never played outfield before and they put him out there and he was OK.  As he figures out angles and positioning he should be better.  To just categorically say...too slow...he will be terrible...I think is unfair.  I also think it is unfair to say Eloy will always be a terrible outfielder.  These are 24 year old athletes and they should get better with experience.  Look at Tim Anderson...he was NOT a good short stop in the minors but he was newish at baseball....he was a -1.5dWar in 2017 and now he's a +1dWar.   There's a chance for hope.  At the same time there are plenty on here that want to pay Nick Casellanos, the 30 year old with a career -10dWar, and there is NO CHANCE he is going to develop into an OK fielder.  I would take Vaughn over NC for many reasons.   

Well, except for TA having all the raw tools in the world to play SS, vs. Vaughn’s quite obvious physical limitations.

[southsider2k5]

8 minutes ago, Chicago White Sox said:

When prices are exponentially higher.  You actually want to enter the 2022 season with Leury Garcia as your 2B and both Vaughn & Sheets as regulars?  Seems absolutely nuts to me.

If we got a superstar pitcher up front, I could go with it.  Otherwise, nah.

[Chicago White Sox]

36 minutes ago, Two-Gun Pete said:

I'm thinking Rodon will be $20MM-ish/per, which would then mean that you'd have to go with Suzuki at ~$11MM-ish/per.

I get that Rodon precludes Conforto, but I like Suzuki better in any case. But then, you also have trade assets to use at the TDL.

 

Trading for Bassitt takes trade assets out of our pocket, and in any case, he's not all that different that players that just cost cash. Especially when he'd be pitching away from Oakland if he came here.

The track record recently with Japanese positional players is pretty poor and I’d much rather have sure things than gamble my money on a pitcher who has one good healthy season in his career and a guy who has never played stateside.  Those are both massive risks vs. Bassitt & Conforto for the same and it’s worth the prospect capital IMO.

[ptatc]

2 minutes ago, SoCalChiSox said:

Agreed and this is a great sign re: Conforto. 

NSC also noted that Hahn is intentionally BSing  on the SP is #1 priority claim.

Let's get this deal locked down today with MC. Then move Kimbrel and make the OAK trade. Get everyone in camp on Sunday.

With Boras as his agent he will not be signing anytime soon.

[Chicago White Sox]

35 minutes ago, Two-Gun Pete said:

Thats entirely a fair position.

I think that Suzuki's GOLD glove and penchant for drawing walks ALONE is worth ~1.5 fWAR. I agree that there are risks in his hit-for-average and hit-for-power tools adjusting to MLB.

But if he hits as ZIPs thinks he will, SURPLUS VALUE, BABY!!!!! At age 27, I think its more likely that he WILL be able to adjust than he won't; this isn't some 30+ year old like Fukudome trying to adjust to MLB. This is a star just entering his prime. (Plus, it'll fuck over bahsten and the scrubs and any other enemies that want to land Suzuki.)

OTOH, if he doesn't, his smaller contract (estimated at ONLY $11MM/per) and Glove/eye mean that it won't be totally shambolic. 

I just think Suzuki makes more sense for a team a year or two out from being serious competitors vs. a team in the thick of their window.

[Chicago White Sox]

32 minutes ago, SoxBlanco said:

It's hopefully our playoff rotation in 7 months (not necessarily in that order):

A:  Lynn

B:  Bassitt

C  Giolito

Bassitt is a pretty damn good pitcher.

[Chicago White Sox]

33 minutes ago, chitownsportsfan said:

He continued a long WS tradition of really shitty defensive corner OF. He had a nice arm but anything down the line was an automatic triple as you said. Hit the piss out of the ball for the most part tho.

Oh I absolutely loved Jermaine, but dude was a total statue out there in RF.