Offseason Part 2 - Lets the Rumors & Action Begin

[ptatc]

6 minutes ago, Look at Ray Ray Run said:

It's really really difficult to justify picking up Craig Kimbrel's option for 16 million but not offering Rodon 1 year at 18 million.

Rodon will very likely, even with injury risk, cover more innings than Kimbrel in 2022. Kimbrel would not get an offer anywhere near the offer Rodon got in FA. This to me is a process issue. I can respect not wanting to come into the season with the risk of Rodon's health given that Keuchel is bad and Kopech can only throw about 120-140 innings. I completely understand the thought process there. It's just difficult to swallow the Kimbrel and Rodon decision when put side by side, and accounting for the draft pick compensation. It just shows very poor valuation skills by the FO who is, sadly, kind of notorious for that.

Not if they don't want either of them. You know the only reason they picked up Kimbrel's option is to trade him. Even if it's for a Class A flyer they lose nothing by picking up the option.

[Look at Ray Ray Run]

4 minutes ago, ptatc said:

Shoving the chips into the middle guarantees a shorter window. I would prefer they slow play and extend the window.

While it's football, I look at the Rams and think most teams should operate that way. The Sox haven't exactly built up minor league depth behind their young core. Their window is pretty reliant on a set group of guys continuing to grow and perform for the limited time they have left here. None of that is really guaranteed. I'd be fine with extending a window if you had more talent in the wings as insurance for some guys just never getting to their ceilings, or regressing earlier than expected. That type of thing always happens. The Sox are honestly already in year 3 of their contention window. If it went 5 years that would be pretty good luck, 6 and you're really pushing it. Which means this year and next year are the prime time to really go for it all. 

It's about winning titles when you break it down for rebuilds. Not about raising a bunch of central title championships.

Edited March 11, 2022 by Look at Ray Ray Run

[Tony]

2 minutes ago, Chisoxfn said:

That was the point. Rodon over Kimbrel was the smarter play all day. If they just wanted flexibility do neither. Plus Rodon at 1yr 18M if he did accept is just fine of a risk for a team that could manage his innings and certainly benefit greatly if he was healthy (which I believe he is). 

This is obviously the biggest point, because if fully healthy, I would agree with the rest. 

It comes down to giving the Sox the benefit of the doubt. Usually, I don't. But them not offering him a QO tells me they really didn't even want to risk him accepting, so there must be something there they know we don't. Or, you just think the Sox don't know what they are doing. Which I'm not going to fault you for thinking that. I get it. 

I just tend to believe there is something more there. We'll see. 

[poppysox]

4 minutes ago, credezcrew24 said:

Because it doesn't matter if the Sox thought he's worth 15 or 16 if Boras and the market thought he's worth more. They lost out on a free comp pick because they miscalculated the market.

Even if Rodon accepted the QA the Sox could have theoretically traded him for the value of the salary difference.

So your answer to why the QO wasn't offered is RH is stupid.  If he could have turned Rodon into something worthwhile we won't know.  If Rodon breaks down after three starts we will know that RH didn't want to be defending why he pissed 18M down his leg when you all knew he was worthless.  GM's have it hard to be ahead of the curve on these things...hindsight is always 20/20.

[ptatc]

1 minute ago, chw42 said:

Unfortunately, the team already started shortening the window when they decided to trade for Kimbrel last year. 

Not really. Neither piece is was an integral part of the future and they were getting the best bullpen arm available. Didn't work but he was the best pitcher available.

[poppysox]

5 minutes ago, Look at Ray Ray Run said:

I look at things that actually happened. You look at some made up scenario that has no supporting evidence.

Hindsight is always 20/20.

[Bob Sacamano]

7 minutes ago, poppysox said:

Well, you would need to ask RH what was actually on his mind.  I am simply offering up a reason he didn't give up a QO.  I simply don't jump to the FO is stupid answer you apparently fine so easy to offer up.

I mean, we did hear during the first part of the off-season about how they misread the market on someone they wanted. Pretty good chance they misread the market on a lot of guys who have signed and possibly still out there.

[Look at Ray Ray Run]

2 minutes ago, ptatc said:

Not if they don't want either of them. You know the only reason they picked up Kimbrel's option is to trade him. Even if it's for a Class A flyer they lose nothing by picking up the option.

You're entrusting the same organization that didn't realize Carlos Rodon's value league wide to determine that Kimbrel was worth 16 million + Trade pieces. I said at the time picking up the Kimbrel option was bad management. It was hanging onto a bad decision instead of cutting ties with it. Kimbrel isn't netting the Sox anything of value. Picking up his option was more bad decision making on MLB talent value by the White Sox front office.

[wegner]

2 minutes ago, ptatc said:

Shoving the chips into the middle guarantees a shorter window. I would prefer they slow play and extend the window.

Making the playoffs every year is fun....losing in the 1st round and looking bad and totally outmatched is not fun.  They have to do something but I do prefer they do it through free agency and not by mortgaging the future by trading Vaughn....especially if it would be for a pitcher on the last year of their contract.  If they can trade Kimbrel for that fine or for a package that they can flip to get it also fine.

[Tony]

Just now, Look at Ray Ray Run said:

While it's football, I look at the Rams and think most teams should operate that way. The Sox haven't exactly built up minor league depth behind their young core. Their window is pretty reliant on a set group of guys continuing to grow and perform for the limited time they have left here. None of that is really guaranteed. I'd be find with extending a window if you had more talent in the wings as insurance for some guys just never getting to their ceilings, or regressing earlier than expected. That type of thing always happens. The Sox are honestly already in year 3 of their contention window. If it went 5 years that would be pretty good luck, 6 and you're really pushing it. Which means this year and next year are the prime time to really go for it all. 

It's about winning titles when you break it down for rebuilds. Not about raising a bunch of central title championships.

While I think the Rams got super lucky and not having a first-round pick in like 6 years basically never works out....the rest of your post I fully agree with. 

People don't have a great grasp on how "windows" work for most teams. And unless you just are way ahead of the game or willing to spend more than anyone (see LA Dodgers, Tampa Bay Rays), the window just doesn't last that long. 5-6 years is basically it, you're right. And you're also right that the Sox really are in Year 3 of their window. 

Now is the time. 

[Chisoxfn]

1 minute ago, Tony said:

This is obviously the biggest point, because if fully healthy, I would agree with the rest. 

It comes down to giving the Sox the benefit of the doubt. Usually, I don't. But them not offering him a QO tells me they really didn't even want to risk him accepting, so there must be something there they know we don't. Or, you just think the Sox don't know what they are doing. Which I'm not going to fault you for thinking that. I get it. 

I just tend to believe there is something more there. We'll see. 

I think they don’t know what they are doing. I don’t think the White Sox adequately know how to value the free agent marketplace. I think they got caught with their pants down in their valuations and offseason plans going back to start of free agency. 
 

They can absolutely overcome it and have plenty of time to make this team better - but right now this is a worse team than it was last year in my opinion. 

Note: It is still a very good team though.

[ptatc]

1 minute ago, Look at Ray Ray Run said:

While it's football, I look at the Rams and think most teams should operate that way. The Sox haven't exactly built up minor league depth behind their young core. Their window is pretty reliant on a set group of guys continuing to grow and perform for the limited time they have left here. None of that is really guaranteed. I'd be fine with extending a window if you had more talent in the wings as insurance for some guys just never getting to their ceilings, or regressing earlier than expected. That type of thing always happens. The Sox are honestly already in year 3 of their contention window. If it went 5 years that would be pretty good luck, 6 and you're really pushing it. Which means this year and next year are the prime time to really go for it all. 

It's about winning titles when you break it down for rebuilds. Not about raising a bunch of central title championships.

sure. That's one philosophy. I would rather get as many shots in the playoffs as possible to win as opposed to selling out for one or two shots. Baseball is so fickle with pitching injuries and hitters having off years that I prefer the long game. I understand your point and it's valid, I just prefer a different one.

[Two-Gun Pete]

20 minutes ago, Look at Ray Ray Run said:

Kikuchi is terrible.

Another one of those guys I see floated around here that I have no idea why Sox fans want anything to do with.

Yeah, I understand that Kikuchi's projected for 2-ish fWAR. 

But these are the dregs you scrape up when your FO moronically trades for a closer they don't need, then picks up his obese option before a CBA war.

With all the actually-good SPs gone in the pre-lockout phase of the offseason, its either sign a 2-ish fWAR guy like Kikuchi, or trust these geniuses to not shit their pants in trade. Again.

[Look at Ray Ray Run]

3 minutes ago, poppysox said:

Hindsight is always 20/20.

Except plenty of people said this was a dumb decision the second they made it. That's not hindsight.

[BigHurt3515]

I can't believe we are going to go into the year with Keuchel in the rotation again

[Squirmin' for Yermin]

2 minutes ago, Two-Gun Pete said:

Yeah, I understand that Kikuchi's projected for 2-ish fWAR. 

But these are the dregs you scrape up when your FO moronically trades for a closer they don't need, then picks up his obese option before a CBA war.

With all the actually-good SPs gone in the pre-lockout phase of the offseason, its either sign a 2-ish fWAR guy like Kikuchi, or trust these geniuses to not shit their pants in trade. Again.

I wanted nothing to do with most of the flash in the pan SPs in this offseason (Gausman, Ray)

[Chicago White Sox]

45 minutes ago, iWiN4PreP said:

That's a BAD move on the white sox FO not giving him a QO and not beating that deal.

I'm sad/mad about it. Bad start to offseason part II.

Beating the deal?  Totally remains to be seen if he can hold up over two seasons.  But not offering a QO is quickly looking worse in hindsight.

[Two-Gun Pete]

15 minutes ago, Look at Ray Ray Run said:

It's really really difficult to justify picking up Craig Kimbrel's option for 16 million but not offering Rodon 1 year at 18 million.

 This to me is a process issue.

It's just difficult to swallow the Kimbrel and Rodon decision when put side by side, and accounting for the draft pick compensation. It just shows very poor valuation skills by the FO who is, sadly, kind of notorious for that.

This.

Stoopid shit like this is why I really would like those imbeciles fucking fired. If/when they further shorten the window by overpaying in trade for some random SP mediocrity, I'll get amped up more.

Thise guys are just moronic sometimes.

[chw42]

Just now, BigHurt3515 said:

I can't believe we are going to go into the year with Keuchel in the rotation again

I think this was always going to happen, especially with the shortened schedule this year and the possible double headers. I have a hard time believing this team is going to let $18 million sit in the bullpen. 

[Look at Ray Ray Run]

4 minutes ago, ptatc said:

sure. That's one philosophy. I would rather get as many shots in the playoffs as possible to win as opposed to selling out for one or two shots. Baseball is so fickle with pitching injuries and hitters having off years that I prefer the long game. I understand your point and it's valid, I just prefer a different one.

Listen, I'm with you on maximizing appearances. But this team has not built the depth at the minor league level to sustain this beyond their current core of players, and that core is aging faster than most understand. This it the peak time for this team. They need to shove shove shove imo.

[Look at Ray Ray Run]

2 minutes ago, Squirmin' for Yermin said:

I wanted nothing to do with most of the flash in the pan SPs in this offseason (Gausman, Ray)

I'm a huge Gausman stan, but I wish he signed somewhere else because the East may give him fits. 

[Two-Gun Pete]

1 minute ago, Squirmin' for Yermin said:

I wanted nothing to do with most of the flash in the pan SPs in this offseason (Gausman, Ray)

I would have liked Stoman @ his price, but then we have the shittiest manager in the bigs right now.

And now, here we are: Kimbrel's in the roster, but we have a gaping hole in the rotation. Congratulations!

[ChiSox59]

18 minutes ago, Look at Ray Ray Run said:

I just don't see how it's a bad thing to move Dallas Keuchel out of the rotation. He doesn't really belong there. 

I don't think anyone thinks its a bad thing.  I just don't think they're going to add a 6th legitimate SP to do it.  Much more likely a scrapheap FA to compete with him. 

Thing is, Sox are paying Kuechel $18M.  They've historically shown no willingness to completely cut bait on someone that expensive.  He isn't a bullpen piece.    They'll try to squeeze 20 or so out of him before releasing.

To be clear, I'd love to send Keuchel to the moon and acquire a legit TOR SP.  I just don't think its going to happen. 

[ChiSox59]

14 minutes ago, YouCanPutItOnTheBoardYES! said:

No, he’s really not. Keuchel should be moved out regardless.

Prepare to be disappointed. 

[ptatc]

1 minute ago, Look at Ray Ray Run said:

You're entrusting the same organization that didn't realize Carlos Rodon's value league wide to determine that Kimbrel was worth 16 million + Trade pieces. I said at the time picking up the Kimbrel option was bad management. It was hanging onto a bad decision instead of cutting ties with it. Kimbrel isn't netting the Sox anything of value. Picking up his option was more bad decision making on MLB talent value by the White Sox front office.

It remains to be seen if the league wide view of Rodon is correct. I can see why the Sox wouldn't want to tie themselves to a pitcher even just this year that hasn't pitched a full year in awhile. It's a huge risk to count on him for the year.

Like I said with Kimbrel, even if they get a Class A flyer on him it costs nothing