Offseason Part 2 - Lets the Rumors & Action Begin

[Chicago White Sox]

2 minutes ago, SoxBlanco said:

Yeah, the fact that Kimbrel will only be a 1 year deal is why I think somebody will take him. 

Someone will take him because they won’t be as emotional as Sox fans and overreact to his two month stint with us.  On a full season basis, he was 6th in fWAR at 2.2, 7th in FIP at 2.43 (w/ at least 30 IP), 3rd in K/9 at 15.08, and had a 98th percentile xwOBA.  This was over  59.2 innings, which is roughly a full season for him.  

Meanwhile the other “year and a half” everyone loves to cite as being horrible was a total of 36 innings (~60% of one normal length season for him).  And the best part is Kimbrel wasn’t even bad in 2020.  Coming off a COVID impacted spring training, he had two bad appearances to start the season (33.94 FIP in 1.3 innings).  Over the rest of the season, which was a total of 14 innings, he posted a 1.12 FIP with a 18.0 K/9.  He literally was just as dominant over the final 91% of the 2020 season as he was with the Cubs to start 2021.

I know, I know, Two Gun Pete will call me a “slicer & dicer” for daring to use any sort of critical thinking when assessing Kimbrel’s stats over the past two years.  And he definitely won’t like me using context and pointing out that changing roles, experiencing a 44 inning YoY inning increase, and/or dealing with a sick daughter may have had something to do with his sudden falloff after joining the Sox.

Regardless, some of the brightest minds in baseball were highly interested in him at the trade deadline and I have zero doubt a few of those same minds see a potential buy low opportunity here.  I doubt we get much in return, but major league front offices almost certainly value Craig Kimbrel much higher than the majority of posters on Soxtalk do and we will be able to move him.

[sullythered]

1 hour ago, Chicago White Sox said:

Someone will take him because they won’t be as emotional as Sox fans and overreact to his two month stint with us.  On a full season basis, he was 6th in fWAR at 2.2, 7th in FIP at 2.43 (w/ at least 30 IP), 3rd in K/9 at 15.08, and had a 98th percentile xwOBA.  This was over  59.2 innings, which is roughly a full season for him.  

Meanwhile the other “year and a half” everyone loves to cite as being horrible was a total of 36 innings (~60% of one normal length season for him).  And the best part is Kimbrel wasn’t even bad in 2020.  Coming off a COVID impacted spring training, he had two bad appearances to start the season (33.94 FIP in 1.3 innings).  Over the rest of the season, which was a total of 14 innings, he posted a 1.12 FIP with a 18.0 K/9.  He literally was just as dominant over the final 91% of the 2020 season as he was with the Cubs to start 2021.

I know, I know, Two Gun Pete will call me a “slicer & dicer” for daring to use any sort of critical thinking when assessing Kimbrel’s stats over the past two years.  And he definitely won’t like me using context and pointing out that changing roles, experiencing a 44 inning YoY inning increase, and/or dealing with a sick daughter may have had something to do with his sudden falloff after joining the Sox.

Regardless, some of the brightest minds in baseball were highly interested in him at the trade deadline and I have zero doubt a few of those same minds see a potential buy low opportunity here.  I doubt we get much in return, but major league front offices almost certainly value Craig Kimbrel much higher than the majority of posters on Soxtalk do and we will be able to move him.

He has been brutal in meaningful games for several years.  When the cubs were in the hunt, he was absolute trash, then pitched well when it didn't matter, then got traded to contender, mega-trash.  And in four Red Sox postseason a, his ERA was around 4 and a half, never better than 4.15.

 

He is a fraud.

Edited March 12, 2022 by sullythered

[caulfield12]

https://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2022/03/cardinals-notes-hicks-reyes-designated-hitter-shortstop-dejong.html

The Cards would be a shocker for Kimbrel.  In theory, you have the Red Sox and Padres looking, but neither are the right fits for different reasons (past performance, financials).  You have Knebel at $10 million in Philly as an alternative, and Kenley Jansen on the market "for free."  Blue Jays?  Dodgers won't go with that monster roster (especially w/ Freeman) and pair it with yet another lingering question mark at the back end after the last 2-3 seasons out on Jansen.

[CeaseAndExist]

5 hours ago, Two-Gun Pete said:

I know, right? 

They've just made so much progress from year to year in the post-season. And this years team is ready to roll to that same level of success in the post-season. 

Awwww he's moving goalposts now. 

I can't imagine being even 50% as miserable about anything as you are about the Sox. Impressive work itt

[Chicago White Sox]

1 hour ago, sullythered said:

He has been brutal in meaningful games for several years.  When the cubs were in the hunt, he was absolute trash, then pitched well when it didn't matter, then got traded to contender, mega-trash.  And in four Red Sox postseason a, his ERA was around 4 and a half, never better than 4.15.

 

He is a fraud.

Yes, he was trash over 20 innings in 2019 when he joined the Cubs halfway through the season without the benefit of a spring training.  After that he was mostly dominant for the Cubs.  I don’t think any of that had to with the pressures of “being in the hunt” if that’s what you’re suggesting.  He was simply all-around bad in 2019.

So to be clear, your theory for why he fell off a cliff with the Sox is because he went from closing for a loser Cubs team to being a setup man for a team with a nine game divisional lead?  And instead of looking at his performance in various leverage scenarios (which are nearly identical over the course of his career and best in high situations in 2020 & 2021 with the Cubs), you’d rather focus on a dozen of playoff innings that aren’t even remotely statistically significant?

At the end of the day, Craig Kimbrel still has elite stuff and when his command is on he is one of the most dominant pitchers in baseball.  Unfortunately when he joined the Sox his velocity dropped down a tick and he also saw his command diminish.  I don’t know if the root of his issues were mental, physical, or mechanical, but regardless, guys have two bad months all the time, especially pitchers and even more so relievers.  And just because he sucked with the Sox does not mean he’s going to suck with his next team.  Again, the Rays & Dodgers didn’t believe he was fraud when they aggressively pursued him last year.  I really don’t think Sox fans can be objective with Kimbrel given the steep price we paid to acquire him and the shit performance he gave us over the final two months of the season.

[Chicago White Sox]

Alright, here are the stats for three relievers from last year.  If they were all free agents, what would their market value be?

• Player A:  2.54 ERA | 2.34 FIP | 14.3 K/9 | 1.4 HR/9 | 99th percentile xwOBA
• Player B:  2.26 ERA | 2.43 FIP | 15.1 K/9 | 0.9 HR/9 | 98th percentile xwOBA
• Player C:  2.57 ERA | 2.83 FIP | 13.2 K/9 | 1.4 HR/9 | 97th percentile xwOBA

Edited March 12, 2022 by Chicago White Sox

[fathom]

2 hours ago, Chicago White Sox said:

Yes, he was trash over 20 innings in 2019 when he joined the Cubs halfway through the season without the benefit of a spring training.  After that he was mostly dominant for the Cubs.  I don’t think any of that had to with the pressures of “being in the hunt” if that’s what you’re suggesting.  He was simply all-around bad in 2019.

So to be clear, your theory for why he fell off a cliff with the Sox is because he went from closing for a loser Cubs team to being a setup man for a team with a nine game divisional lead?  And instead of looking at his performance in various leverage scenarios (which are nearly identical over the course of his career and best in high situations in 2020 & 2021 with the Cubs), you’d rather focus on a dozen of playoff innings that aren’t even remotely statistically significant?

At the end of the day, Craig Kimbrel still has elite stuff and when his command is on he is one of the most dominant pitchers in baseball.  Unfortunately when he joined the Sox his velocity dropped down a tick and he also saw his command diminish.  I don’t know if the root of his issues were mental, physical, or mechanical, but regardless, guys have two bad months all the time, especially pitchers and even more so relievers.  And just because he sucked with the Sox does not mean he’s going to suck with his next team.  Again, the Rays & Dodgers didn’t believe he was fraud when they aggressively pursued him last year.  I really don’t think Sox fans can be objective with Kimbrel given the steep price we paid to acquire him and the shit performance he gave us over the final two months of the season.

The Cubs were also in contention for the first few months last year when he was dominating 

[Sarava]

6 hours ago, Chicago White Sox said:

Someone will take him because they won’t be as emotional as Sox fans and overreact to his two month stint with us.  On a full season basis, he was 6th in fWAR at 2.2, 7th in FIP at 2.43 (w/ at least 30 IP), 3rd in K/9 at 15.08, and had a 98th percentile xwOBA.  This was over  59.2 innings, which is roughly a full season for him.  

Meanwhile the other “year and a half” everyone loves to cite as being horrible was a total of 36 innings (~60% of one normal length season for him).  And the best part is Kimbrel wasn’t even bad in 2020.  Coming off a COVID impacted spring training, he had two bad appearances to start the season (33.94 FIP in 1.3 innings).  Over the rest of the season, which was a total of 14 innings, he posted a 1.12 FIP with a 18.0 K/9.  He literally was just as dominant over the final 91% of the 2020 season as he was with the Cubs to start 2021.

I know, I know, Two Gun Pete will call me a “slicer & dicer” for daring to use any sort of critical thinking when assessing Kimbrel’s stats over the past two years.  And he definitely won’t like me using context and pointing out that changing roles, experiencing a 44 inning YoY inning increase, and/or dealing with a sick daughter may have had something to do with his sudden falloff after joining the Sox.

Regardless, some of the brightest minds in baseball were highly interested in him at the trade deadline and I have zero doubt a few of those same minds see a potential buy low opportunity here.  I doubt we get much in return, but major league front offices almost certainly value Craig Kimbrel much higher than the majority of posters on Soxtalk do and we will be able to move him.

Oh crap, you went ahead and went all Aaron Rodgers on us you critical thinker.

When the Sox picked up Kimbrel's option, I was fine with it, because I assumed he had a deal in place. I'll still give him the benefit of the doubt that something will get done, and they won't have to eat dollars or give away extra assets to move that deal. But I'm a tad nervous now. I don't want other moves that need to be made this winter compromised because those dollars are tying up Jerry's wallet.

[ScootsMcGoots]

7 hours ago, Jack Parkman said:

On a side note, I hope Crochet comes out throwing 100 mph this year again. 

On a different note, I thought this shit was going to be bananas but instead it's been a snooze fest. 

Hard to fit an entire offseason's workload into just a couple days, all while trying to get spring training off the ground, I would imagine. Sounds like an operations nightmare tbh.

[CentralChamps21]

3 hours ago, CeaseAndExist said:

Awwww he's moving goalposts now. 

I can't imagine being even 50% as miserable about anything as you are about the Sox. Impressive work itt

The majority of posters here are Bears fans. Can we please not use goalpost analogies?

[oneofthemikes]

With the Kelly “news” coming out, would that be in lieu of a Tepera signing or possibly in addition to?

[Squirmin' for Yermin]

1 minute ago, oneofthemikes said:

With the Kelly “news” coming out, would that be in lieu of a Tepera signing or possibly in addition to?

lieu i would assume.

[maloney.adam]

The sun rose today. Hopefully a more positive day here on Soxtalk! ?

[Squirmin' for Yermin]

I'd kill for Jeff McNeil

[ChiSox59]

5 minutes ago, maloney.adam said:

The sun rose today. Hopefully a more positive day here on Soxtalk! ?

It sure didn’t take long for the boards negative nancies to ruin some good FA and trade speculation! 

[Tnetennba]

4 minutes ago, maloney.adam said:

The sun rose today. Hopefully a more positive day here on Soxtalk! ?

The sun rises every day and the level of positivity from some never follows suit.  I would not get my hopes up?. 

[Chicago White Sox]

Starting pitching market is going to move fast.

[Chicago White Sox]

4 minutes ago, Squirmin' for Yermin said:

I'd kill for Jeff McNeil

So would I but don’t see a good match between us.

[Squirmin' for Yermin]

Vaughn, Crochet, Burger + for Ketel Marte and Beer. weeeee

[Chicago White Sox]

One name that hasn’t been discussed for 2B is Gleyber Torres.  He’s coming off a couple rough years and the Yankees have a bit of a 2B squeeze at the moment.  No idea if they’d move him or what they’d be looking for, but he’d a great buy low guy for us.

[gogosox1959]

MLB.com power rankings: 1, Dodgers; 2, SOX; 3. Tampa Bay; 4. NYY; 5. Mets, 6. Toronto; 7. Atlanta; 8. Houston; 9. San Fran; 10. San Diego

They must not read SoxTalk

[Squirmin' for Yermin]

Just now, Chicago White Sox said:

One name that hasn’t been discussed for 2B is Gleyber Torres.  He’s coming off a couple rough years and the Yankees have a bit of a 2B squeeze at the moment.  No idea if they’d move him or what they’d be looking for, but he’d a great buy low guy for us.

I imagine he'd cost a ton. If you can headline with Crochet, go for it.  But no way he would be a strong headline

[CentralChamps21]

1 minute ago, gogosox1959 said:

MLB.com power rankings: 1, Dodgers; 2, SOX; 3. Tampa Bay; 4. NYY; 5. Mets, 6. Toronto; 7. Atlanta; 8. Houston; 9. San Fran; 10. San Diego

They must not read SoxTalk

I didn't know Rick Hahn wrote for mlb.com.

[Flash]

Of course we don't know what we don't know but I'm really puzzled on why we didn't QO Rodon. Its not like our farm system couldn't use the comp pick. I'm also puzzled as to why we didn't lock up Tepera before the lockout. Now he'll be significantly more expensive. That said, maybe Boros 'owes us one'.  Maybe Comforto at 3yr/$54M? 

[Squirmin' for Yermin]

Just now, Flash said:

Of course we don't know what we don't know but I'm really puzzled on why we didn't QO Rodon. Its not like our farm system couldn't use the comp pick. I'm also puzzled as to why we didn't lock up Tepera before the lockout. Now he'll be significantly more expensive. That said, maybe Boros 'owes us one'.  Maybe Comforto at 3yr/$54M? 

agree with your 2nd and third point and but your way off on Conforto's contract.