Chicago White Sox Posted March 15, 2022 Share Posted March 15, 2022 1 minute ago, Jack Parkman said: wut? Look at his full season 2021 stats vs Hendriks and Iglesias. They are basically in line with them. So if you’re argument is that Kimbrel was lucky with the Cubs, then let’s us his full season numbers to judge him. And if you do that, his market value is ~4/$50M. Seems fair right? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Balta1701 Posted March 15, 2022 Share Posted March 15, 2022 1 minute ago, Chicago White Sox said: Cool…so his shit performance with us was simply regression to the mean. I guess that means his market value is 4/$50M+ based on what relievers who put up similar numbers got in free agency. Thanks for confirming! Projected performance for next year, averaging the 6 projection systems on Fangraphs currently Hendriks: 1.7 WAR Iglesias: 1.4 WAR Kimbrel: 0.6 WAR Knebel: 0.55 WAR Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago White Sox Posted March 15, 2022 Share Posted March 15, 2022 3 minutes ago, Balta1701 said: Projected performance for next year, averaging the 6 projection systems on Fangraphs currently Hendriks: 1.7 WAR Iglesias: 1.4 WAR Kimbrel: 0.6 WAR Knebel: 0.55 WAR Cool…how accurate are these six projection systems? Do they account and adjust for past numbers when a guy doesn’t get a spring training, has a 45 inning increase vs PY, and is dealing with a sick daughter? If not, then I’m going to use last year’s stellar FY numbers as barometer for future performance. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
caulfield12 Posted March 15, 2022 Share Posted March 15, 2022 1 minute ago, Chicago White Sox said: Cool…how accurate are these six projection systems? Do they account and adjust for past numbers when a guy doesn’t get a spring training, has a 45 inning increase vs PY, and is dealing with a sick daughter? If not, then I’m going to use last year’s stellar FY numbers as barometer for future performance. Wasn't it something similar with Dunn's family in 2012? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Balta1701 Posted March 15, 2022 Share Posted March 15, 2022 7 minutes ago, Chicago White Sox said: Cool…how accurate are these six projection systems? Do they account and adjust for past numbers when a guy doesn’t get a spring training, has a 45 inning increase vs PY, and is dealing with a sick daughter? If not, then I’m going to use last year’s stellar FY numbers as barometer for future performance. I believe they are absolutely accounting for the previous years’ performance yes. The fact that his only good stretch in his current contract was dominated by luck and the two previous years he was a below replacement level player is in there. In fact, if you average the previous 3 seasons of his deal, he averaged 0.4 WAR per season on this deal, so a projection beyond that is being a little optimistic - and that’s what GMs will pay for. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago White Sox Posted March 15, 2022 Share Posted March 15, 2022 5 minutes ago, caulfield12 said: Wasn't it something similar with Dunn's family in 2012? Yes it was, but remember these guys are all robots and not impacted by those type of things. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Look at Ray Ray Run Posted March 15, 2022 Share Posted March 15, 2022 (edited) 9 minutes ago, Chicago White Sox said: Cool…how accurate are these six projection systems? Do they account and adjust for past numbers when a guy doesn’t get a spring training, has a 45 inning increase vs PY, and is dealing with a sick daughter? If not, then I’m going to use last year’s stellar FY numbers as barometer for future performance. You keep using this spring training excuse, but Kimbrel has been declining since his last year and a half in Boston. Edited March 15, 2022 by Look at Ray Ray Run Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Balta1701 Posted March 15, 2022 Share Posted March 15, 2022 2 minutes ago, Chicago White Sox said: Yes it was, but remember these guys are all robots and not impacted by those type of things. Would you trade for Adam Dunn’s last contract at any point during it if you were a GM? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago White Sox Posted March 15, 2022 Share Posted March 15, 2022 1 minute ago, Balta1701 said: I believe they are absolutely accounting for the previous years’ performance yes. The fact that his only good stretch in his current contract was dominated by luck and the two previous years he was a below replacement level player is in there. In fact, if you average the previous 3 seasons of his deal, he averaged 0.4 WAR per season on this deal, so a projection beyond that is being a little optimistic. I said are they accounting for context, which they clearly are not. And Kimbrel’s 2019 & 2020 seasons represent 60% of a normal season. And the final 91% of Kimbrel’s 2020 season was incredibly dominant. So Kimbrel was bad for like 22 innings with the Cubs. And if he was lucky with the Cubs, he was unlucky with the Sox. And his 2021 full season number would place him as one of the best relievers in baseball. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jack Parkman Posted March 15, 2022 Share Posted March 15, 2022 Just now, Balta1701 said: Would you trade for Adam Dunn’s last contract at any point during it if you were a GM? The A's literally did that when it was expiring. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago White Sox Posted March 15, 2022 Share Posted March 15, 2022 3 minutes ago, Look at Ray Ray Run said: You keep using this spring training excuse, but Kimbrel has been declining since his last year and a half in Boston. Kimbrel’s 2H 2017’s FIP was 2.17. When did he start declining exactly? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CWSpalehoseCWS Posted March 15, 2022 Share Posted March 15, 2022 4 minutes ago, Balta1701 said: Would you trade for Adam Dunn’s last contract at any point during it if you were a GM? Billy Beane did just that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Balta1701 Posted March 15, 2022 Share Posted March 15, 2022 2 minutes ago, Jack Parkman said: The A's literally did that when it was expiring. The White Sox paid 1/2 of his remaining salary on a waiver wire trade. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago White Sox Posted March 15, 2022 Share Posted March 15, 2022 4 minutes ago, Balta1701 said: Would you trade for Adam Dunn’s last contract at any point during it if you were a GM? ?…Craig Kimbrel put up the 6th most fWAR while dealing with a horrible health issue involving his daughter, whereas Dunn put a -2.9 fWAR season and was arguably the worst player in baseball. But good comparison bro! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
thxfrthmmrs Posted March 15, 2022 Share Posted March 15, 2022 17 minutes ago, Chicago White Sox said: How have we fared against good RHPs? Always fun the garbage righted in the AL Central, but it’s a whole another animal when you face quality RHP in the playoffs. The need is not overblown at all. Again, if they see as that big of a need they furthered the issue by bringing in Harrison who is better against LHH throughout his career. There is only one guy in the FA market who could help solve the problem and chances of landing him isn’t great. If we fail to land Conforto, would you want Suzuki, Joc, or Rosario? I am not convinced Joc is a better hitter against RHP than Suzuki even with platoon advantage and Rosario can’t play RF. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago White Sox Posted March 15, 2022 Share Posted March 15, 2022 Just now, thxfrthmmrs said: Again, if they see as that big of a need they furthered the issue by bringing in Harrison who is better against LHH throughout his career. There is only one guy in the FA market who could help solve the problem and chances of landing him isn’t great. If we fail to land Conforto, would you want Suzuki, Joc, or Rosario? I am not convinced Joc is a better hitter against RHP than Suzuki even with platoon advantage and Rosario can’t play RF. I want Conforto, but after him I’d go Schwarber (even with the defensive concessions it requires), and then Suzuki. I’m not sure Joc or Rosario move the needle at all. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Balta1701 Posted March 15, 2022 Share Posted March 15, 2022 7 minutes ago, Chicago White Sox said: Kimbrel’s 2H 2017’s FIP was 2.17. When did he start declining exactly? You can actually see something really important when he gets to Boston. His ground ball rate drops from 46% to 31%, and his line drive and fly ball rate both shoot up. His hard contact rate shoots up. None of those went down to their previous levels after they went up. He remains a pitcher who gets a ton of strikeouts, but he gives up a fair amount of hard contact and home runs. His HR/FB rate is quite high overall, which is why it should have stood out in 2021 like a sore thumb if anyone in the White Sox’s organization looked. What that means for his performance is that he gives up runs in bunches. He can easily go 10 or 20 or 30 inning stretches with good numbers because they are short enough to filter out some of the home runs and his high strikeout rate means there’s extra time between those home runs. Your favorite stretch in 2020 - all you are doing is filtering out the home runs. Outside of terrible 2019, you can do that in any of those other seasons - find stretches where he’s solid, but then a home run or two comes along. That’s why he’s a mid-level quality reliever now, and has been for years. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CaliSoxFanViaSWside Posted March 15, 2022 Share Posted March 15, 2022 3 hours ago, Jack Parkman said: Yeah, this isn't working to kill tanking. Teams are still doing it. You expected it to kill tanking ? When you raise the CBT that just allows high spending teams to spend even more. The low budget teams feel even farther away from competing with them. If anything it encourages tanking without a cap floor. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FoxForce2 Posted March 15, 2022 Share Posted March 15, 2022 25 minutes ago, Two-Gun Pete said: Couple things: 1. Sox were 6th in WRC+ vs RHP last season. So no, its not a "critical" need. 2. This org DOES have a critical need for an actual MLB-Caliber RFer, because there hasn't been one in this roster, like AT ALL. Whether or not its Suzuki can be debated. 3. There's this thing called "the trade deadline." Assuming those geniuses in the FO don't stupidly grab another piece they don't need, a LHH bat could be gotten then. And there's a bonus to #3: If you grab Suzuki and he's MLB caliber, and fits the budget, a hypothetical LHH bat @ the TDL could be position-agnostic. That is, you could get ANY LHH bat at ANY position and plug him into the lineup. Much easier proposition, IMO. By contrast looking with a LHH RFer gives you a list of 1 player that's available. 2021 Playoff vs Houston vs LH - AB-24, Slash - .500/.538/.583 vs RH - AB-117, Slash - .248/.326/.333 Before you go into 'small data sets' I'll only say that the playoffs -by definition- are a small data set (miniscule actually.) I did include the qualifier 'if interested in a WS appearance'. As for your 3. You admit that the Sox didn't exactly excel in mid-season moves last year. What makes you think they're going to do any better this year? Conforto obviously has leverage in a Sox deal, in itself not a good position for the team to be in. Further, considering (his) last years performance is he really the guy that should be the highest paid player on the team? My point being that posters here have suddenly determined that handedness is of little/no concern --- now that the FO has not made moves in that direction. Looks a little like rationalization to me. This is all academic, the Sox aren't signing Suzuki and the Conforto grab looks more elusive all the time. all we have is 'the really big move' in the works as advertised by some. I guess this is all a breath holding contest. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sarava Posted March 15, 2022 Share Posted March 15, 2022 5 minutes ago, Chicago White Sox said: I want Conforto, but after him I’d go Schwarber (even with the defensive concessions it requires), and then Suzuki. I’m not sure Joc or Rosario move the needle at all. Unless we can trick Rick Hahn in to thinking Schwarber or Conforto are relief pitchers or utility infielders, I don't think they will be interested ? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Balta1701 Posted March 15, 2022 Share Posted March 15, 2022 8 minutes ago, Chicago White Sox said: ?…Craig Kimbrel put up the 6th most fWAR while dealing with a horrible health issue involving his daughter, whereas Dunn put a -2.9 fWAR season and was arguably the worst player in baseball. But good comparison bro! And Kimbrel put up a -1.1 WAR season and was arguably the worst reliever in baseball during the first year of his contract. And frankly, I didn’t bring him up! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Beast Posted March 15, 2022 Share Posted March 15, 2022 5 hours ago, Whisox05 said: 5 hours ago, Jack Parkman said: 5 hours ago, chw42 said: 5 hours ago, Whisox05 said: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Balta1701 Posted March 15, 2022 Share Posted March 15, 2022 6 minutes ago, CaliSoxFanViaSWside said: You expected it to kill tanking ? When you raise the CBT that just allows high spending teams to spend even more. The low budget teams feel even farther away from competing with them. If anything it encourages tanking without a cap floor. While it wasn’t going to kill tanking, the draft lottery and draft rules were built to somewhat reduce the reward for it. There are also financial rewards included for teams that grow their local revenue, which obviously Cincinnati will not do. It’s definitely a start, we will have to see what else needs done to go in that direction. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
thxfrthmmrs Posted March 15, 2022 Share Posted March 15, 2022 14 minutes ago, Chicago White Sox said: I want Conforto, but after him I’d go Schwarber (even with the defensive concessions it requires), and then Suzuki. I’m not sure Joc or Rosario move the needle at all. I am with you on the order. But the fact that there is no Sox rumor in 2 and 3 from that list is concerning. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CaliSoxFanViaSWside Posted March 15, 2022 Share Posted March 15, 2022 2 hours ago, Look at Ray Ray Run said: I guess he figures if you acquire 10 scrubs maybe one will surprise you. They couldn't make that strategy work even in the rebuild. All they did was sign a bunch of big HR potential slugs who couldn't field a lick . Follow the Dodgers lead on that . Find guys who can field with big enough bodies who can be tweaked to upgrade their hitting. Scouting and development failures all over the place in the organization and they didn't bother to try to fix them at the beginning of the rebuild because it was the same guys running the show that let them slip into that abyss in the 1st place.It probablt wasnt until the 2nd or 3rd year of the rebuild that we saw some improvements. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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