Offseason Part 2 - Lets the Rumors & Action Begin

[michelangelosmonkey]

1 hour ago, Snopek said:

I understand the sentiment that Conforto may lose a lot of value in year 4 of a contract, but I don't understand why that should matter to a team trying to win NOW.

So, what are we actually trying to do here? Is it maximize our chances of winning now? Or is it trying to sustain some moderate level of success and relevance for as long as possible? Because it's incredibly hard to do both.

Go look at the Oakland A's in the early 70's.  They, like the White Sox right now, had a a core of maybe 8 players and pitchers under 27 that looked like they were going to be all timers...Reggie Jackson, Joe Rudi, Gene Tenace, Dave Duncan, Catfish Hunter, Vida Blue, Ken Holtzman and Rollie Fingers.  They put some good seasoned players around that group and then won three straight WS's.  Note that first WS team in 72, also had a crappy second baseman and a crappy RF (and a skin flint owner). I think Rick Hahn recognizes this...we could be on the brink of a dynasty...the only reason the A's didn't win two or three more WS is that the star players got expensive and the cheap owner sold off the team.   Conforto 0f 2017-2020 would be great on this team.  Conforto of last year would be nothing and a $100 million mistake contract could mean you can't afford Gio in a couple of years.   Vegas and every power ranking thinks we are a top five team in all of baseball even if we put a snowman in rightfield.  This is one of the great 26 and under core of players I can remember of any team...the key is to foster and grow that group for five or six years...and as fans we need to be EXCITED about it...and not drive ourselves crazy over an outfielder the Mets don't want.       

[Jack Parkman]

12 minutes ago, GREEDY said:

I think any fanbase would be perplexed by a player Hahn failed to give the QO to getting 2/44.

I think any fanbase would be perplexed by Hahn picking up Kimbrel's 16 million dollar option.

I think 95% of the members here would have preferred paying Conforto instead of last 20 million + spent.  Until he is signed elsewhere it won't be all sunshine and daisies in any corner of Sox internet.  

Luis Robert, Yoan Moncada and Dylan Cease having upside remaining doens't mean fan(atics) shouldn't be upset with how resources are being used.  

 

If they didn't pick up Kimbrel, even with all of the moves they've made they would have plenty of room under the CBT for Conforto+midseason additions. 

I'm fine with not giving Rodon the QO. Let someone else assume all of the risk there. I think that if Rodon got the QO he would have accepted it. 

Edited March 16, 2022 by Jack Parkman

[Balta1701]

5 minutes ago, Jack Parkman said:

If they didn't pick up Kimbrel, even with all of the moves they've made they would have plenty of room under the CBT for Conforto+midseason additions. 

I'm fine with not giving Rodon the QO. Let someone else assume all of the risk there. I think that if Rodon got the QO he would have accepted it. 

 I thought he would have accepted at the time, and I was totally ok with that given the white sox's roster (note that they're at least thinking about additional starting pitching).

However, Boras seemed surprisingly confident it wouldn't matter at the time, to the point where maybe the part I was wrong about was that they were going to turn it down if they got it.

[FoxForce2]

Same here. Russians - gotta be Russians.

[Two-Gun Pete]

30 minutes ago, michelangelosmonkey said:

It's so refreshing that you can see into the future and are able to let us know that every move the White Sox have made is going to turn out terrible.   It's super that coming off a 93 win season with players that have barely scratched their potential you remind us we are doomed because we signed a 2War second baseman.  It's so nice that you let us know that Dallas Keuchel who was a top five Cy Young candidate two years ago is washed up because he was terrible last year, and that Kimbrel who has had a hall of fame career and last year had four of the greatest months ever by a reliever but then finished off with a bad two months is also finished and yet Conforto who was a pretty good player two years ago and a very good player two years before that but was terrible last year is certain of a bounce back and we should sign him for $100 million.  It's great that you can tell us that the same Conforto who was a -1 dWar last year and has had a negative dWar every year of his career will be a great RF and we are screwed if we try Vaughn/Engel combination.  Its super that we hear over and over how cheap we are...until we are a top five payroll...and then you can nimbly switch to...it's not that we are cheap it's that we spend money stupidly.  It's also great that even in the face of the evidence that the teams with the top 6 bullpens last year averaged 95 wins...we are morons for investing in our bullpen.  Some people are half glass full, some are half glass empty...Soxtalk is the glass is half full of poison.      

Two things:

1. I appreciate your reply.

2. Paragraphs are your friend. Using elipses to separate half-thoughts is difficult to read.

[Jack Parkman]

Just now, Balta1701 said:

 I thought he would have accepted at the time, and I was totally ok with that given the white sox's roster (note that they're at least thinking about additional starting pitching).

However, Boras seemed surprisingly confident it wouldn't matter at the time, to the point where maybe the part I was wrong about was that they were going to turn it down if they got it.

His market would have been much lower with the QO attached. 

[fathom]

7 minutes ago, Jack Parkman said:

If they didn't pick up Kimbrel, even with all of the moves they've made they would have plenty of room under the CBT for Conforto+midseason additions. 

I'm fine with not giving Rodon the QO. Let someone else assume all of the risk there. I think that if Rodon got the QO he would have accepted it. 

Problem is you’re assuming their budget goes up to the CBT limit, but it sure sounds like the budget is where it’s at now 

[CentralChamps21]

If Rodon had accepted the QO, the Sox would have had him for $3M less than market value on a low-risk one year deal. If he declined it then they're in the same situation as they are now but with an extra draft pick. It was 100% a win-win.

[Jack Parkman]

2 minutes ago, fathom said:

Problem is you’re assuming their budget goes up to the CBT limit, but it sure sounds like the budget is where it’s at now 

Their actual payroll this year will be well below the CBT calculations. 

I figured the budget was about 15M below the CBT limit. Their real money payroll is at $180M but their CBT payroll is at $211M  

Without Kimbrel, but with Conforto on a 4/88 only would ad $6M to their real money payroll. 

Edited March 16, 2022 by Jack Parkman

[michelangelosmonkey]

19 minutes ago, GREEDY said:

I think any fanbase would be perplexed by a player Hahn failed to give the QO to getting 2/44.

I think any fanbase would be perplexed by Hahn picking up Kimbrel's 16 million dollar option.

I think 95% of the members here would have preferred paying Conforto instead of last 20 million + spent.  Until he is signed elsewhere it won't be all sunshine and daisies in any corner of Sox internet.  

Luis Robert, Yoan Moncada and Dylan Cease having upside remaining doens't mean fan(atics) shouldn't be upset with how resources are being used.  

 

* Any fanbase that starts off with the premise "our owners, coaches and manager are idiots" would be perplexed by us not giving a QO to Rodon.  There is CLEARLY concern about Rodon's future by the people that know him the best.   They looked at it and said "We can't risk $18 million on this guy".  Listen I wanted Rodon too...he was SO good last year...but it's a cold blooded business and by their actions they think his arm is going to fall off.  

*  Kimbrel after coming off an arm injury in 19 and Covid crazy in 20 where he pitched a total of 35 innings...then came back in 21 and pitched 35 innings with a 1.1 FIP, a .71 Whip and 15 strikeouts a game...and then got tired and had a bad 20 innnings for the Sox.  And EVERYONE HERE wants to throw him in the garbage can.  Kimbrel had the 6th best fWar of all relief pitchers last year.  HE GOT TIRED.  We use this excuse all the time, sensibly, for players coming off injuries or COVID stuff...except Kimbrel.  He's done, he's garbage...we should have cut him.  

*  If they can get Conforto for $20 million for one year...man I'm contributing.   But it's a risk for years 2-4...and we have exciting replacements in the pipeline.  Go read some Future Sox stuff on Colas.  As for hating the guys we got??   Graveman and Kelly are replacing Burr and Foster 2.50 ERA for 5 era over 75 innings.   And Hamilton was a 2 War player last year and most of his career.   

*  And Kopech, and Crochett, and Vaughn and Sheets and Gio and Bummer and Eloy...stop being upset about not overspending for some other teams cast off (I say this often but Met's are TRYING to win...know Conforto better than anyone...have an owner that spends money like crazy...and have said hard pass on Conforto.  

[ChiSox59]

12 minutes ago, CentralChamps21 said:

If Rodon had accepted the QO, the Sox would have had him for $3M less than market value on a low-risk one year deal. If he declined it then they're in the same situation as they are now but with an extra draft pick. It was 100% a win-win.

Its spilled milk at this point, but clearly the Sox didn't like Rodon's medicals and didn't see the risk of an $18M as a good one.  This is the same guy that failed to go past 5 innings after a mid July start, and only mustered 9 starts in the season's second half. Me thinks the Sox know a little bit more about Rodon than the other 29 clubs.  Me also thinks the Giants are going to regret that deal pretty much immediately.  

[michelangelosmonkey]

18 minutes ago, Two-Gun Pete said:

Two things:

1. I appreciate your reply.

2. Paragraphs are your friend. Using elipses to separate half-thoughts is difficult to read.

Thanks Pete.

[Chicago White Sox]

33 minutes ago, michelangelosmonkey said:

Go look at the Oakland A's in the early 70's.  They, like the White Sox right now, had a a core of maybe 8 players and pitchers under 27 that looked like they were going to be all timers...Reggie Jackson, Joe Rudi, Gene Tenace, Dave Duncan, Catfish Hunter, Vida Blue, Ken Holtzman and Rollie Fingers.  They put some good seasoned players around that group and then won three straight WS's.  Note that first WS team in 72, also had a crappy second baseman and a crappy RF (and a skin flint owner). I think Rick Hahn recognizes this...we could be on the brink of a dynasty...the only reason the A's didn't win two or three more WS is that the star players got expensive and the cheap owner sold off the team.   Conforto 0f 2017-2020 would be great on this team.  Conforto of last year would be nothing and a $100 million mistake contract could mean you can't afford Gio in a couple of years.   Vegas and every power ranking thinks we are a top five team in all of baseball even if we put a snowman in rightfield.  This is one of the great 26 and under core of players I can remember of any team...the key is to foster and grow that group for five or six years...and as fans we need to be EXCITED about it...and not drive ourselves crazy over an outfielder the Mets don't want.       

This core isn’t under control for five or six more years, so why does planning that way make any sense?

[michelangelosmonkey]

1 minute ago, Chicago White Sox said:

This core isn’t under control for five or six more years, so why does planning that way make any sense?

I mean...that's the point about the risk of Conforto...not this year but spending foolish on non core assets in 2023-2025.   A players peak baseball years, by one google search, is 28-30.  So we get this group of 10 guys that will be coming into or at their peak production for the next 5-6 years.  We HAVE the team...we just have to figure out how to pay them...and how to replace them.  So many here have talked about the white sox terrible farm system...and yet all of their top prospects are 21 or younger or fresh from Cuba.  Between Cespedes, Colas, Montgomery, Popeye, Ramos, the high school arms, Vera...that next wave could be really good in two to three years when they are going to need them.   I think they have been doing very smart planning for a long run and a big part of that is sensible budgeting.    

[thxfrthmmrs]

28 minutes ago, michelangelosmonkey said:

* Any fanbase that starts off with the premise "our owners, coaches and manager are idiots" would be perplexed by us not giving a QO to Rodon.  There is CLEARLY concern about Rodon's future by the people that know him the best.   They looked at it and said "We can't risk $18 million on this guy".  Listen I wanted Rodon too...he was SO good last year...but it's a cold blooded business and by their actions they think his arm is going to fall off.  

*  Kimbrel after coming off an arm injury in 19 and Covid crazy in 20 where he pitched a total of 35 innings...then came back in 21 and pitched 35 innings with a 1.1 FIP, a .71 Whip and 15 strikeouts a game...and then got tired and had a bad 20 innnings for the Sox.  And EVERYONE HERE wants to throw him in the garbage can.  Kimbrel had the 6th best fWar of all relief pitchers last year.  HE GOT TIRED.  We use this excuse all the time, sensibly, for players coming off injuries or COVID stuff...except Kimbrel.  He's done, he's garbage...we should have cut him.  

*  If they can get Conforto for $20 million for one year...man I'm contributing.   But it's a risk for years 2-4...and we have exciting replacements in the pipeline.  Go read some Future Sox stuff on Colas.  As for hating the guys we got??   Graveman and Kelly are replacing Burr and Foster 2.50 ERA for 5 era over 75 innings.   And Hamilton was a 2 War player last year and most of his career.   

*  And Kopech, and Crochett, and Vaughn and Sheets and Gio and Bummer and Eloy...stop being upset about not overspending for some other teams cast off (I say this often but Met's are TRYING to win...know Conforto better than anyone...have an owner that spends money like crazy...and have said hard pass on Conforto.  

I just remembered, you are the same guy who was making a bunch of excuses for Reynaldo Lopez and preferred him over Musgrove and telling everyone why it would have been a mistake to trade prospects for him?

Sounds like more of the same here. Just a bunch of excuses for Kimbrel. He’s getting paid $16M and got tired after 35 innings? It would be a mistake to give Conforto more than 1 year? The amount of water carrying here… I don’t even know where to begin.

[HOFHurt35]

58 minutes ago, CentralChamps21 said:

If Rodon had accepted the QO, the Sox would have had him for $3M less than market value on a low-risk one year deal. If he declined it then they're in the same situation as they are now but with an extra draft pick. It was 100% a win-win.

And if accepted and his arm falls off (as it's highly possible with him), then we'd be fucked. 

 

[CentralChamps21]

Just now, HOFHurt35 said:

And if accepted and his arm falls off (as it's highly possible with him), then we'd be fucked. 

 

You'd still have Keuchel and Kopech, which is exactly what you have now.

[HOFHurt35]

1 minute ago, CentralChamps21 said:

You'd still have Keuchel and Kopech, which is exactly what you have now.

Right, so for a team that counts every next dollar, why take that risk? 

 

[ChiSox59]

2 minutes ago, CentralChamps21 said:

You'd still have Keuchel and Kopech, which is exactly what you have now.

And $18M less to invest in the team.  The offseason isn't over. 

[Balta1701]

Just now, HOFHurt35 said:

Right, so for a team that counts every next dollar, why take that risk? 

 

Because we actually have need of additional starting pitching and instead of keeping Rodon we spent extra money on Velasquez and Kelly?

[Bob Sacamano]

Still waiting for it @Harold's Leg Lift

[thxfrthmmrs]

15 minutes ago, michelangelosmonkey said:

I mean...that's the point about the risk of Conforto...not this year but spending foolish on non core assets in 2023-2025.   A players peak baseball years, by one google search, is 28-30.  So we get this group of 10 guys that will be coming into or at their peak production for the next 5-6 years.  We HAVE the team...we just have to figure out how to pay them...and how to replace them.  So many here have talked about the white sox terrible farm system...and yet all of their top prospects are 21 or younger or fresh from Cuba.  Between Cespedes, Colas, Montgomery, Popeye, Ramos, the high school arms, Vera...that next wave could be really good in two to three years when they are going to need them.   I think they have been doing very smart planning for a long run and a big part of that is sensible budgeting.    

Cespedes is 24 and Colas is 23, both are at least another year away. There is a reason the farm is ranked dead last in MLB. While it's easy to look at the farm in a vacuum and say we have a couple of nice prospects that could help the team someday (which is an exercise you can do for any other farm system), their collective talent and depth doesn't measure up against other farms.

Now on to your main point. We lose Abreu after this season, Gio and Grandal after 2023. By 2024, we have $126M committed just 9 players, that's before the arb raises for Cease and Kopech. We may be able to keep the core for 2024, but they'd have to make some tough decisions in 2025. Without significant contributions from the farm, they're a crossroad at that point facing tough decisions to either sign aging vets to try to keep the team competitive ala 2013-2017, retool, or rebuild altogether. Regardless if they sign Conforto to a 4 year deal or not, it really doesn't matter. So the question is do you want to just be good enough from 2022-2025 to have a chance to make the playoffs, or load up in those years to try to get as far as you can in the playoffs? The answer is pretty easy for me.

[hi8is]

We’re not done… just pretend baseball is still in a lockout.

[HOFHurt35]

Carlos Rodon: 

Has topped 150 innings once, all the way back in 2016 

69

120

34

7

132

 

Those are the innings each season following. 

You guys are out of your minds if you're OK with handing out $18.4 million for that. 

[HOFHurt35]

4 minutes ago, Balta1701 said:

Because we actually have need of additional starting pitching and instead of keeping Rodon we spent extra money on Velasquez and Kelly?

The Sox need additional RELIABLE starting pitching.  

Carlos Rodon is far from being reliable, and especially not for $18 million.