Offseason Part 2 - Lets the Rumors & Action Begin

[SoCalChiSox]

2 minutes ago, chitownsportsfan said:

 if that's the competition get it done.

Lulz if JR and friends get outbid by Monfort for Conforto

[Balta1701]

2 minutes ago, ChiSox59 said:

I’d sell high too.  Just not sure 1 season of Bassitt qualifies. 

We traded Marcus Semien, Chris Bassitt, and Josh Phegley for 1 year of Jeff Samardzija.

If you want a pitcher of Bassitt’s caliber, you will have to give up something of significant value for him.

[Two-Gun Pete]

I think I recall @ptatc saying that ~24 or so starts for Kopech would be a reasonable workload for him in 2022.

This means that another SP will be required.

I for one don't want 33 year old Chris Bassitt being added to a rotation that includes a 34 and a soon-to-be 35 year old SP. I also don't like Bassitt's road splits, which suggest that he's rather ordinary away from Oakland. Especially, since you'd have to trade with an org thats already robbed this one blind a few times.

Just use money. Go get Rodon, Kikuchi, or Kim. Bring Kopech along slowly, even if it means he's in Charlotte on OD. Kopech will be more valuable in October, in any case. Start with Keuchel in the rotation, and then move him to the pen as he wears out over the season, and replace him with Kopech.

This would help to solve Kopech's workload, and preserves his arm for October. This could also prevent Keuchel's option from vesting. Lastly, this preserves trade ammo for the TDL.

Problem solved.

Edited March 11, 2022 by Two-Gun Pete

[Two-Gun Pete]

3 minutes ago, Balta1701 said:

We traded Marcus Semien, Chris Bassitt, and Josh Phegley for 1 year of Jeff Samardzija.

If you want a pitcher of Bassitt’s caliber, you will have to give up something of significant value for him.

This is why I want no business making a trade with Oakland. Just use money in the FA market.

[maxjusttyped]

4 minutes ago, Balta1701 said:

We traded Marcus Semien, Chris Bassitt, and Josh Phegley for 1 year of Jeff Samardzija.

If you want a pitcher of Bassitt’s caliber, you will have to give up something of significant value for him.

Reading this again just made me sick to my stomach. good lord.

[Tnetennba]

1 minute ago, maxjusttyped said:

Reading this again just made me sick to my stomach. good lord.

Two dudes that turned out to be really good and the Sox gave up on them far too soon.  It really is a damn shame.

[southsider2k5]

 

[chitownsportsfan]

5 minutes ago, southsider2k5 said:

 

resolve kimbrel to another team please.

Edited March 11, 2022 by chitownsportsfan

[CaliSoxFanViaSWside]

1 hour ago, Polar Bear said:

But we can.  The team already said he is ready for a jump bc its not about innings but the intensity, magnitude, and stress put on the arm.  I assume we can expect easily 150 IP if he stays healthy and they manage him properly (Sox have problems with that so who knows).  Imo by October he will be our ACE but due to inexperience we will slot him 3rd. 

That's putting an awful lot of expectations on a guy who had 4 starts in 2021and had 1 start of 5 innings. It's one thing to be a dominant reliever and quite another for a guy to be a dominant starter on an innings limit and basically 0 MLB starting experience and a couple of years off before that. On top of all that to keep him fresh for the playoffs that means lots of time between starts and just how do you expect him to be our ACE when you can't pitch enough to get into a groove or find your stuff if you start having control or command issues.

I have more faith in Conforto having a rebound year and being a good signing than I do in Kopech being the SOx ace or even number 3 starter in the playoffs. And I don't have all that much faith in Conforto. But I do recognize how valuable he could be because he has done it before. Kopech hasn't done anything at this level to indicate he can go from where he has been to an ACE this year. This all sounding like the Vaughn hype train once Eloy went down.

[bmags]

You guys are weird with the Tony will burn the arms out stuff.

No sox pitcher pitched over 180 IP last year.

Sure felt like Lynn pitched a lot. Lynn pitched 158 IP.

hopefully with 2020 in mirror those guys can pitch more. But for Kopech he is likely going to be a 5 IP guy unless he’s super efficient in a game. And that is very manageable.

[Balta1701]

3 minutes ago, bmags said:

You guys are weird with the Tony will burn the arms out stuff.

No sox pitcher pitched over 180 IP last year.

Sure felt like Lynn pitched a lot. Lynn pitched 158 IP.

hopefully with 2020 in mirror those guys can pitch more. But for Kopech he is likely going to be a 5 IP guy unless he’s super efficient in a game. And that is very manageable.

Are you ok with another 30 starts for Keuchel?

Are you ok with Lopez getting 12-15 starts in addition to Keuchel’s 30? (Kopech got 4, Lopez 9, and Lambert 3 last year, and that was with 7 inning double headers and no scheduled ones).

[Polar Bear]

2 minutes ago, CaliSoxFanViaSWside said:

That's putting an awful lot of expectations on a guy who had 4 starts in 2021and had 1 start of 5 innings. It's one thing to be a dominant reliever and quite another for a guy to be a dominant starter on an innings limit and basically 0 MLB starting experience and a couple of years off before that. On top of all that to keep him fresh for the playoffs that means lots of time between starts and just how do you expect him to be our ACE when you can't pitch enough to get into a groove or find your stuff if you start having control or command issues.

I have more faith in Conforto having a rebound year and being a good signing than I do in Kopech being the SOx ace or even number 3 starter in the playoffs. And I don't have all that much faith in Conforto. But I do recognize how valuable he could be because he has done it before. Kopech hasn't done anything at this level to indicate he can go from where he has been to an ACE this year. This all sounding like the Vaughn hype train once Eloy went down.

1. Vaughn was horrible mismanaged 

2. Kopech isn't Vaughn who had never played above what low A or rookie ball

3. You guys are the most pessimistic site in baseball. 

Why no one looks at comparable or anything 

So you think TB fans are freaking out that they have to count on Rasmussen to be what their number 2 or 3 and throw 150+ when he has never in his life thrown more than like 80 professionally.  

We are talking about a major league starting pitcher who was just used out of the pen to manage his innings 

This is baseball in 2022, SP just need to go 4-6 innings and thats it. Kopech can do that.  I'm more worried about the decline of Gilito/Lynn and Cease's blowups then I am about anything Kopech related

[caulfield12]

27 minutes ago, chitownsportsfan said:

resolve kimbrel to another team please.

That sounds ominous ("resolution expected one way or another.")

I can just see it now...."we came to the conclusion as a front office that it was most logical for someone of Craig's pedigree to have the opportunity to rebuild his trade value."

Kimbrel, the gift that just keeps giving.

[SoxBlanco]

1 minute ago, caulfield12 said:

That sounds ominous ("resolution expected one way or another.")

I can just see it now...."we came to the conclusion as a front office that it was most logical for someone of Craig's pedigree to have the opportunity to rebuild his trade value."

Kimbrel, the gift that just keeps giving.

I'd be absolutely shocked if we didn't trade Kimbrel. He's as good as gone.

[Balta1701]

Just now, SoxBlanco said:

I'd be absolutely shocked if we didn't trade Kimbrel. He's as good as gone.

You’re still going to have to eat some money.

[caulfield12]

3 minutes ago, Polar Bear said:

1. Vaughn was horrible mismanaged 

2. Kopech isn't Vaughn who had never played above what low A or rookie ball

3. You guys are the most pessimistic site in baseball. 

Why no one looks at comparable or anything 

So you think TB fans are freaking out that they have to count on Rasmussen to be what their number 2 or 3 and throw 150+ when he has never in his life thrown more than like 80 professionally.  

We are talking about a major league starting pitcher who was just used out of the pen to manage his innings 

This is baseball in 2022, SP just need to go 4-6 innings and thats it. Kopech can do that.  I'm more worried about the decline of Gilito/Lynn and Cease's blowups then I am about anything Kopech related

Look at the track record of teams like the Braves, Brewers, Indians and Rays developing starters over the last decade.

White Sox have had almost no successes internally except relievers, and almost all of their pitching staff was imported from elsewhere, so it's natural to be just a little bit skeptical when you compare organizational track records head to head.

(Not to mention the most recent "wave" of young pitching in A ball pretty much all ran into a brick wall last year.)

Giolito gives most of the credit to an outsider, Lopez was almost a lost cause before the second half of last year and we all know about Kopech's travails.

Edited March 11, 2022 by caulfield12

[bmags]

3 minutes ago, Balta1701 said:

Are you ok with another 30 starts for Keuchel?

Are you ok with Lopez getting 12-15 starts in addition to Keuchel’s 30? (Kopech got 4, Lopez 9, and Lambert 3 last year, and that was with 7 inning double headers and no scheduled ones).

What a bizarre response.

[Balta1701]

1 minute ago, bmags said:

What a bizarre response.

We have been sitting here talking about the need for more pitching. You come in with a take that the pitching depth is fine. Keuchel getting 30 starts, the high likelihood that Kopech can’t throw 150 innings, and the lack of depth on the back side are obvious potential risks beyond the chances of a freak injury. That covers two of them.

[caulfield12]

8 minutes ago, bmags said:

What a bizarre response.

There does seem to be a rule of Sox karma that bringing back someone like a Montas or Bassitt or fill-in-the-blank name (what's his name we traded for Lynn, for example...from UF via the Nationals)...scares the H.E.L.L. out of everyone.

When's the last time that Billy Beane was actually in charge of day-to-day decision making for the A's?   He's rent free in our heads at this point.

It's like Michael Lewis' Moneyball is still embedded in the Sox fan psyche.

 

The irony there is that Miguel Olivo led to Freddy Garcia, and that Cotts eventually became one of the most important members of the 2005 bullpen.

Edited March 11, 2022 by caulfield12

[caulfield12]

1 minute ago, Balta1701 said:

We have been sitting here talking about the need for more pitching. You come in with a take that the pitching depth is fine. Keuchel getting 30 starts, the high likelihood that Kopech can’t throw 150 innings, and the lack of depth on the back side are obvious potential risks beyond the chances of a freak injury. That covers two of them.

One can easily imagine lady luck turning against the Sox and Giolito, Kopech or Lynn (especially with such an abbreviated spring training) struggling with conditioning injuries out of the gate, leading to some type of season-altering impact on the rotation.

And that's with our #30 rated farm as our back-up plan/support system for filling in and/or trades.

Eventually, the Tigers are going to jump up and bite the Sox, perhaps not this year yet, but it's not that far off if they are willing to spend more liberally in FA.

 

[Two-Gun Pete]

18 minutes ago, Polar Bear said:

We are talking about a major league starting pitcher who was just used out of the pen to manage his innings 

This is baseball in 2022, SP just need to go 4-6 innings and thats it. Kopech can do that.  I'm more worried about the decline of Gilito/Lynn and Cease's blowups then I am about anything Kopech related

Has Kopech really proven that he's capable of starting and staying healthy at the MLB level?

I mean, of his 48 appearances in MLB, only 8 were starts; if memory serves, at least one of those 8 was as an opener. Hes also been significantly injured in both of his MLB seasons.

Relying on Kopech to deliver 150 injury-free IP is shortening your margin for error.

Adding a ~2-ish fWAR SP/long man adds that bit of depth that covers you from injury, ineffectiveness, or workload management. As it stands, you've got to squint to hope that Lopez is fixed, and that's about it, in terms of SP depth.

Edited March 11, 2022 by Two-Gun Pete

[Tnetennba]

26 minutes ago, bmags said:

You guys are weird with the Tony will burn the arms out stuff.

No sox pitcher pitched over 180 IP last year.

Sure felt like Lynn pitched a lot. Lynn pitched 158 IP.

hopefully with 2020 in mirror those guys can pitch more. But for Kopech he is likely going to be a 5 IP guy unless he’s super efficient in a game. And that is very manageable.

Maybe I’m totally wrong, but Kopech has a limited number of innings in him this season and I just have zero faith in TLR to manage those correctly. 

[Chicago White Sox]

12 minutes ago, bmags said:

You guys are weird with the Tony will burn the arms out stuff.

No sox pitcher pitched over 180 IP last year.

Sure felt like Lynn pitched a lot. Lynn pitched 158 IP.

hopefully with 2020 in mirror those guys can pitch more. But for Kopech he is likely going to be a 5 IP guy unless he’s super efficient in a game. And that is very manageable.

"Burning arms out" is not the same thing as being concerned someone will max out their innings before being able to contribute in the playoffs.  What do you think Kopech's inning limit will be next year?  All five main starters averaged between five & six innings per start last year.  I'd expect Kopech to be on the bottom end of that range but make ~28 starts if healthy (going to be very challenging skipping him too often this year).  That right there is a 140 innings, which is a ~70 inning increase vs 2021.  I'm really skeptical they'd push him much further than that, with a move to the bullpen a very possible outcome for him come October IMO.

[Balta1701]

5 minutes ago, Two-Gun Pete said:

Has Kopech really proven that he's capable of starting and staying healthy at the MLB level?

I mean, of his 48 appearances in MLB, only 8 were starts; if memory serves, at least one of those 8 was as an opener. Hes also been significantly injured in both of his MLB seasons.

Relying on Kopech to deliver 150 injury-free IP is shortening your margin for error.

Adding a ~2-ish fWAR SP/long man adds that bit of depth that covers you from injury, ineffectiveness, or workload management. As it stands, you've got to squint to hope that Lopez is fixed, and that's about it, in terms of SP depth.

Even if Kopech lasts 140 innings, you’ll be in about the same spot as last year with Rodon, a long break down the stretch.

Imagine the season went the same as last year and Lynn had some September knee problems, for a recent example.

Right now, the rotation would be Giolito, Cease, Lopez, Keuchel, Lambert, with a double header in there somewhere too. Hope there’s a big lead in that division.

[Two-Gun Pete]

17 minutes ago, caulfield12 said:

There does seem to be a rule of Sox karma that bringing back someone like a Montas or Bassitt or fill-in-the-blank name (what's his name we traded for Lynn, for example...from UF via the Nationals)...scares the H.E.L.L. out of everyone.

When's the last time that Billy Beane was actually in charge of day-to-day decision making for the A's?   He's rent free in our heads at this point.

It's like Michael Lewis' Moneyball is still embedded in the Sox fan psyche.

Well, the Samardzija trade alone cost 24 years of control over Bassitt, Phegley, Semien, and Ravelo. It cost some ~25 FWAR to pickup Samardzjia. It also extended the decade of shit we all got to enjoy while we were "mired in mediocrity."

So yeah, I'm not excited to see KW/RH get robbed, again.

In any case, none of what Oakland has on offer projects to be that much better than what can be gotten in FA. 

Edited March 11, 2022 by Two-Gun Pete