Offseason Part 2 - Lets the Rumors & Action Begin

[Two-Gun Pete]

5 minutes ago, Chicago White Sox said:

The also added Melky Cabrera, Adam LaRoche, David Robertson, & Zach Duke and were crowned the champions of the offseason by many.  Those moves were underwhelming in hindsight, but acting like all they did was add Shark is completely disingenuous.

I've already listed their other shitty moves that were fireable offenses in another post. 

But thinking that a Robin Ventura-led 73 win team from 2014 was going to compete in 2015 was George Custer-level reckless and stupid.

[maxjusttyped]

 

[poppysox]

2 minutes ago, fathom said:

Maybe the Sox don’t think the reports line up with how he mentally handles discomfort?  This is a guy who said he was healthy the last few months of the season, yet his velocity disappeared.

No question he ran out of gas.  Probably going to see something along the same line with Kopech this year.

[Two-Gun Pete]

5 minutes ago, SoxBlanco said:

The projections are fine to look at, but what do you actually believe will happen?  Do you think Rodon or Bassitt will have a higher WAR next year?

Fair question.

First, Rodon's medicals apparently look good. Second, Rodon was just returning to the rotation after a few years away, so of course he was going to wear down in his first full time season back in a few years.

Third, Bassitt is 33, and may be starting his age-related decline. He also benefitted from the green acres of foul area in Oakland and the Marine layer, both of which can attenuate enemy offenses in Oakland. Taken together, I think Bassitt will underperform his 2021 numbers, and might start his decline.

 

In sum, I think Rodon will be good for his ~3.0ish fWAR projection, while Bassitt will fall short of ~2.0ish fWAR if he pitches in a neutral or offensively-favorable ballpark.

[Chicago White Sox]

36 minutes ago, Balta1701 said:

Unfortunately the White Sox right now must have a “win now” attitude. While I agree they have shown no skill at making trades with that attitude, they probably have no choice.

If the White Sox gave up Semien, Bassit, and Phegley for Samarzija when they had a legitimate 92 win team, and that pushed them into the playoffs, it would still sting to have overpaid that badly, but at least a playoff run could justify it. That’s where they are now - it is less important to avoid overpaying than it it to get guys who actually produce. In 2 or 3 years they’re going to be trying to plug holes on a sinking ship no matter what they do now, so they better get themselves into the World Series before that.

Wasn’t the Lynn trade a success?

[michelangelosmonkey]

1 minute ago, Chicago White Sox said:

The also added Melky Cabrera, Adam LaRoche, David Robertson, & Zach Duke and were crowned the champions of the offseason by many.  Those moves were underwhelming in hindsight, but acting like all they did was add Shark is completely disingenuous.

And they also had Sale, Quintana, Eaton and Abreu who all looked like rising stars.  Sometimes you push the accelerator prematurely.  Shark was coming off a 4WAR season and looked like maybe he was a rising star.   Evaluating trades in retrospect is stupid. It didn't work. Neither did the Shields trade 18 months later.   I think in that time Hahn/KW looked at it that if they could sneak into the playoffs with 85 wins and then get Sale and Quintana to pitch five games in each playoff series they had a shot.  Never worked, oh well.  Try something new.   Still I agree with Two gun about the Bassitt trade...I'm just not convinced he's good.  He was great in Oakland but outside of Oakland just a guy...he's going to be 33 and a free agent after this year.  Give up Adolfo, Rory and one of the high school pitchers for him but not much more.   

[michelangelosmonkey]

2 minutes ago, Two-Gun Pete said:

Fair question.

First, Rodon's medicals apparently look good. Second, Rodon was just returning to the rotation after a few years away, so of course he was going to wear down in his first full time season back in a few years.

Third, Bassitt is 33, and may be starting his age-related decline. He also benefitted from the green acres of foul area in Oakland and the Marine layer, both of which can attenuate enemy offenses in Oakland. Taken together, I think Bassitt will underperform his 2021 numbers, and might start his decline.

 

In sum, I think Rodon will be good for his ~3.0ish fWAR projection, while Bassitt will fall short of ~2.0ish fWAR if he pitches in a neutral or offensively-favorable ballpark.

Plus Rodon is a lefty.   He fits their window and their rotation so perfectly.  It would be a big gamble to give him 3 for $60 million but man sometimes you have to roll the dice.  If he's past his injury history and comes back as a stronger version of the 2021 Rodon...man they win multiple World Series.  

[Two-Gun Pete]

1 minute ago, michelangelosmonkey said:

Plus Rodon is a lefty.   He fits their window and their rotation so perfectly.  It would be a big gamble to give him 3 for $60 million but man sometimes you have to roll the dice.  If he's past his injury history and comes back as a stronger version of the 2021 Rodon...man they win multiple World Series.  

Agreed. It can also help the team beyond Giolito and Lynn leaving in a few years. 

 

I suspect that many here don't want Rodon, because they dont think this team can afford BOTH Rodon and Conforto.

I think there is more than one way to get what they need without trading assets away. I also don't think that its "Conforto or bust" this offseason. I think there is more than one way to solve RF, too.

[SoxBlanco]

2 minutes ago, Two-Gun Pete said:

Agreed. It can also help the team beyond Giolito and Lynn leaving in a few years. 

 

I suspect that many here don't want Rodon, because they dont think this team can afford BOTH Rodon and Conforto.

I think there is more than one way to get what they need without trading assets away. I also don't think that its "Conforto or bust" this offseason. I think there is more than one way to solve RF, too.

I actually have no problem with signing Rodon. I just prefer Bassitt based on how I think they will perform.  If we signed Rodon, I would try to trade Keuchel for salary relief.

[Two-Gun Pete]

1 minute ago, SoxBlanco said:

I actually have no problem with signing Rodon. I just prefer Bassitt based on how I think they will perform.  If we signed Rodon, I would try to trade Keuchel for salary relief.

Fair enough.

What do you think Rodon and Bassitt will do this year?

[ptatc]

27 minutes ago, Two-Gun Pete said:

I've already listed their other shitty moves that were fireable offenses in another post. 

But thinking that a Robin Ventura-led 73 win team from 2014 was going to compete in 2015 was George Custer-level reckless and stupid.

Ah, it's good to be back to the discussion of how awful the White sox FO is.

[Balta1701]

27 minutes ago, Chicago White Sox said:

Wasn’t the Lynn trade a success?

Yup, and so was the Tepera trade. Yay! I will even give you Colome as a wash, but Narvaez sure fixed that “he will never be a good framer” thing by becoming a great one. 

And on the other side we have Kimbrel, Hernandez, Mazara, Alonso, Frazier, Samardzija, and a trade with San Diego that might be on the swear filter, which are various degrees of poor to among the worst in MLB history. Even with rose colored glasses, this is a terrible trade record.

A trade is probably still the right move, but  Rick Hahn’s ability to pull off any trade success absolutely deserves every bit of skepticism available. This is like Ryan Pace trading up in the draft.

[michelangelosmonkey]

2 minutes ago, Two-Gun Pete said:

Agreed. It can also help the team beyond Giolito and Lynn leaving in a few years. 

 

I suspect that many here don't want Rodon, because they dont think this team can afford BOTH Rodon and Conforto.

I think there is more than one way to get what they need without trading assets away. I also don't think that its "Conforto or bust" this offseason. I think there is more than one way to solve RF, too.

I don't get the love for Conforto....unless they get him for one year.   I think three of their most interesting prospects are RF...Adolfo, Cespedes and Colas.  I think there is a real chance one of them is ready for 2023 opening day.  Cespedes and Colas fit in perfectly with the idea of a young team and maybe an all Cuban outfield.  I think ONE season of Sheets/Vaughn/Engel would be as good as Conforto (who has not been a great fielder) and much cheaper.  Vaughn needs to be hitting every day because I think he has potential to be the best hitter on a team with a lot of great hitters and having positional flexibility is the hot new concept.    Use the money on Rodon and maybe offer a Montgomery/Vera ++ package for Ketel Marte to play 2b and cover for Robert in CF periodically.   

  

[poppysox]

5 minutes ago, Two-Gun Pete said:

Agreed. It can also help the team beyond Giolito and Lynn leaving in a few years. 

 

I suspect that many here don't want Rodon, because they dont think this team can afford BOTH Rodon and Conforto.

I think there is more than one way to get what they need without trading assets away. I also don't think that its "Conforto or bust" this offseason. I think there is more than one way to solve RF, too.

I know it wouldn't be popular but I still think the improvement will come from a better than expected 2nd base acquisition (Marte) and quality SP (Rodon).  The Vaughn/Sheets/Engel/Garcia needs to be used somewhere and RF can be used as that place.  Defense suffers a bit but it isn't like the names being talked about are Roberto Clemente types.

[SoxBlanco]

3 minutes ago, Two-Gun Pete said:

Fair enough.

What do you think Rodon and Bassitt will do this year?

I like Bassitt for around 3 or 4 WAR.  I think he is getting better and better each year.  Your point about pitching in Oakland is definitely valid, though. 

The problem with Rodon is that he is such an unknown in my eyes. I could see him also putting up a 3/4 WAR season, but I could just as easily see him get injured and put up close to nothing. 

Gun to my head, I'm taking Bassitt to have the better season (without much hesitation).

[wegner]

1 hour ago, poppysox said:

I am hopeful the Cubbies want to bring back Kimbrel to placate the fan base.

I would love to be placated in that way....asap.

[Bob Sacamano]

1 minute ago, poppysox said:

I know it wouldn't be popular but I still think the improvement will come from a better than expected 2nd base acquisition (Marte) and quality SP (Rodon).  The Vaughn/Sheets/Engel/Garcia needs to be used somewhere and RF can be used as that place.  Defense suffers a bit but it isn't like the names being talked about are Roberto Clemente types.

Who are you trading for Marte if you have Vaughn penciled into the OF?

[ptatc]

17 minutes ago, Two-Gun Pete said:

Agreed. It can also help the team beyond Giolito and Lynn leaving in a few years. 

 

I suspect that many here don't want Rodon, because they dont think this team can afford BOTH Rodon and Conforto.

I think there is more than one way to get what they need without trading assets away. I also don't think that its "Conforto or bust" this offseason. I think there is more than one way to solve RF, too.

The key to signing Rodon is how many years it will take. With his history a 4 or 5 year deal would be awful.

[Balta1701]

1 minute ago, ptatc said:

The key to signing Rodon is how many years it will take. With his history a 4 or 5 year deal would be awful.

My guess for him is still that he gets like 3 years but with an opt out after 1. Seeing the CBA, maybe 3/$70 with $20 million in year 1 would make good sense.

If he throws 170 innings next year and is a 7 WAR pitcher, Boras will want him in a contract that anticipated his performance and gets him right back onto the FA market. They would probably take a shorter guarantee to make that possible.

[Bob Sacamano]

1 hour ago, Look at Ray Ray Run said:

 

Imagine being outspent this off season by the cross town team who supposedly wasn't trying to win

My one buddy, who is a die-hard Cubs fan, claimed the Cubs were only 2 bats away from being good BEFORE the off-season started (completely ignoring their pitching it seems). He will be even more insufferable if Correa signs with the Cubs. So please don’t go there. 

Edited March 11, 2022 by Bob Sacamano

[fathom]

1 minute ago, Bob Sacamano said:

My one buddy, who is a die-hard Cubs fan, claimed the Cubs were only 2 bats away from being good BEFORE the off-season started (completely ignoring their pitching it seems). He will be insufferable if Correa signs with the Cubs. So please don’t go there. 

They’re still very much a possibility for Castellanos, Suzuki or Conforto as well

[Bob Sacamano]

2 minutes ago, fathom said:

They’re still very much a possibility for Castellanos, Suzuki or Conforto as well

I know. It wouldn’t shock me if they add an outfielder and Correa, one of the many SP options and some relievers. Fuck that haha

I don’t expect it though. I think they just saw an opportunity with Stroman at the price he signed for (I don’t think the contract is bad) and claimed Miley for nothing. It’s weird they signed Yan Gomes to a 2 year/ $12mill deal. I feel like that’s too much for a backup catcher and he’s actually the starter and Contreras gets dealt.

[Harold's Leg Lift]

Letting Bryant, Baez, Schwarber and Rizzo all walk then signing Correa to a monster deal makes absolutely no sense.  

[Chimpton]

I would just like to say how refreshing it is to see everyone back to arguing about on field matters again!

[ptatc]

9 minutes ago, Balta1701 said:

My guess for him is still that he gets like 3 years but with an opt out after 1. Seeing the CBA, maybe 3/$70 with $20 million in year 1 would make good sense.

If he throws 170 innings next year and is a 7 WAR pitcher, Boras will want him in a contract that anticipated his performance and gets him right back onto the FA market. They would probably take a shorter guarantee to make that possible.

I could see that. That would work for everyone.