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Offseason Part 2 - Lets the Rumors & Action Begin


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2 minutes ago, poppysox said:

Why?  They signed him last year at a reduced rate when no one else wanted him at the higher $4M number.  As I said before, I think they did him a solid for not tying him down with a QO.  If they think with his risky health baggage he is worth 15 or 16 why offer the QO?

Bad way to run a team: doing people solids.

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3 minutes ago, Look at Ray Ray Run said:

I just want them to acquire good MLB players. I don't need a Conforto or etc. I just need them to invest in the product, and shove their chips into the middle. Who knows how long the window will be here. Who knows how long guys will be healthy or performing well. Make it happen now because next year isn't guaranteed.

This is where our draft history comes into play. 

Fulmer

Rodon

Madrigal

Collins

Burger

These are all high first round picks that we've essentially gotten a few months of good play out of. We have little to show for it this season. 

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1 hour ago, poppysox said:

Why?  They signed him last year at a reduced rate when no one else wanted him at the higher $4M number.  As I said before, I think they did him a solid for not tying him down with a QO.  If they think with his risky health baggage he is worth 15 or 16 why offer the QO?

Because it doesn't matter if the Sox thought he's worth 15 or 16 if Boras and the market thought he's worth more. They lost out on a free comp pick because they miscalculated the market.

Even if Rodon accepted the QA the Sox could have theoretically traded him for the value of the salary difference.

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1 minute ago, Tony said:

And as others have said, that is a much more realistic and rational gripe, in my opinion. 

However, I still don't think it was an absolute slam dunk that Rodon turns down the QO, even after seeing what he just got. Which would seemingly tell me the Sox really had zero interest in bringing him back, and didn't want to take an $18 million dollar gamble. Now, their decision to pick up Kimbrell sort of contradicts that, but I want to see how the whole offseason plays out before making a true judgment. 

If the Sox rotation is worse on paper than last year, and they make zero upgrades, I'll have a bigger issue with it. 

It's really really difficult to justify picking up Craig Kimbrel's option for 16 million but not offering Rodon 1 year at 18 million.

Rodon will very likely, even with injury risk, cover more innings than Kimbrel in 2022. Kimbrel would not get an offer anywhere near the offer Rodon got in FA. This to me is a process issue. I can respect not wanting to come into the season with the risk of Rodon's health given that Keuchel is bad and Kopech can only throw about 120-140 innings. I completely understand the thought process there. It's just difficult to swallow the Kimbrel and Rodon decision when put side by side, and accounting for the draft pick compensation. It just shows very poor valuation skills by the FO who is, sadly, kind of notorious for that.

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18 minutes ago, fathom said:

So I assume a large portion of the board thinks Conforto was the first call Hahn made?  I will be the contrarian and say it was Castellanos. Happy to be wrong as long as they get something good out there.

Would be especially interesting as his top suitor (Miami) probably isn't after him nearly as much anymore given the Jeter/financial situation

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3 minutes ago, Look at Ray Ray Run said:

Why? Because they didn't offer him the QO because they thought it was too much and that he would accept since he wouldn't get more on the open market. They did him a solid? Jesus Christ. You offer the QO based on what his value is league wide, not based on what you value him at personally. 

Are you being intentionally dense?

Well, you would need to ask RH what was actually on his mind.  I am simply offering up a reason he didn't give up a QO.  I simply don't jump to the FO is stupid answer you apparently fine so easy to offer up.

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17 minutes ago, Tony said:

That won't stop some from pounding their feet on the floor until someone gives them the attention they want. 

Nope - they misread the market on Rodon. If they didn’t want to go multi-year with him fine, but this was a bad use of an asset, plain and simple. 

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Just now, Look at Ray Ray Run said:

It's really really difficult to justify picking up Craig Kimbrel's option for 16 million but not offering Rodon 1 year at 18 million.

Rodon will very likely, even with injury risk, cover more innings than Kimbrel in 2022. Kimbrel would not get an offer anywhere near the offer Rodon got in FA. This to me is a process issue. I can respect not wanting to come into the season with the risk of Rodon's health given that Keuchel is bad and Kopech can only throw about 120-140 innings. I completely understand the thought process there. It's just difficult to swallow the Kimbrel and Rodon decision when put side by side, and accounting for the draft pick compensation. It just shows very poor valuation skills by the FO who is, sadly, kind of notorious for that.

Yup, this is probably the biggest problem I have with the whole situation. Picking up Kimbrel's option felt like them trying to justify the cost we gave up for the trade. Sometimes you just gotta eat your losses and not double down on a bad trade. We decided to double down on a bad trade instead of using that money to get ourselves a free draft pick. We'll have to see if they actually get rid of Kimbrel. If he actually brings something of value back, then great. If not, it's just another example of this FO not knowing what the hell they're doing. 

Like you said, in the worst case scenario, Rodon gives you more innings than Kimbrel. And if that's the case, Rodon at $18 million is probably a better investment than Kimbrel at $16 million. 

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8 minutes ago, Tony said:

And as others have said, that is a much more realistic and rational gripe, in my opinion. 

However, I still don't think it was an absolute slam dunk that Rodon turns down the QO, even after seeing what he just got. Which would seemingly tell me the Sox really had zero interest in bringing him back, and didn't want to take an $18 million dollar gamble. Now, their decision to pick up Kimbrell sort of contradicts that, but I want to see how the whole offseason plays out before making a true judgment. 

If the Sox rotation is worse on paper than last year, and they make zero upgrades, I'll have a bigger issue with it. 

That was the point. Rodon over Kimbrel was the smarter play all day. If they just wanted flexibility do neither. Plus Rodon at 1yr 18M if he did accept is just fine of a risk for a team that could manage his innings and certainly benefit greatly if he was healthy (which I believe he is). 

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13 minutes ago, Look at Ray Ray Run said:

I just want them to acquire good MLB players. I don't need a Conforto or etc. I just need them to invest in the product, and shove their chips into the middle. Who knows how long the window will be here. Who knows how long guys will be healthy or performing well. Make it happen now because next year isn't guaranteed.

Shoving the chips into the middle guarantees a shorter window. I would prefer they slow play and extend the window.

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2 minutes ago, poppysox said:

Well, you would need to ask RH what was actually on his mind.  I am simply offering up a reason he didn't give up a QO.  I simply don't jump to the FO is stupid answer you apparently fine so easy to offer up.

I look at things that actually happened. You look at some made up scenario that has no supporting evidence.

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1 minute ago, ptatc said:

Shoving the chips into the middle guarantees a shorter window. I would prefer they slow play and extend the window.

Unfortunately, the team already started shortening the window when they decided to trade for Kimbrel last year. 

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