Cali Posted January 5, 2003 Share Posted January 5, 2003 From CS.com I just cut the stuff about the White Sox. Baseball is as complicated as you want to make it. The new wave of experts, begun about 20 years ago by pioneers like Bill James and Craig Wright, is waging a numerological assault on the simplicity of the sport. Often writing for Web sites and weekly or semiannual periodicals, and without the commitment of following any given team's games and maintaining relationships with players and managers, these detached thinkers have gained a foothold that has changed the way all of us look at the sport—sometimes for the better, occasionally for the worse. But even in this information age, the simplest theories still work. Here is one of those: It is a very good thing to go into a season with a stable of established starting pitchers coming off workhorse seasons. That's why the Anaheim Angels and San Francisco Giants really weren't such surprises. It's why we would argue the White Sox, Toronto, Philadelphia, Montreal (barring subtractions) and the New York Mets are shaping up as the most likely "surprise" teams for the 2003 World Series. It's also why those teams, among others, should be fighting to sign pitchers Chuck Finley, Jeff Suppan, Kenny Rogers, Paul Wilson and Ismael Valdes. The five free agents are among 55 pitchers who worked at least 190 innings in 30-plus starts last season. For the last six months, I've been kicking myself for not picking the Angels (instead of Seattle) as a playoff team last season. That's because more than once I wrote that Anaheim was the only team in the majors entering 2002 with five starters coming off 30/190 seasons. In fact, they were the only team that went to spring training with more than three. Reliable starting pitching is perhaps the biggest factor in separating contenders from pretenders. The eight teams that went to the '02 playoffs were the only ones that entered the season with at least three starters coming off 30/190 seasons in the big leagues. Another way to illustrate the impact of known workhorses: The 15 teams that were .500 or better started with an average of 2.5 starters who were 30/190 pitchers; the 15 that finished the season with losing records started with an average of 1.2 who were 30/190 men. What does that tell us for next season? For one thing, Minnesota could be in trouble. An unexpectedly strong bullpen and the emergence of the unsung Kyle Lohse hid the fact Joe Mays, Eric Milton and Brad Radke went backward during the Twins' division-winning season. Minnesota will likely enter spring without a 30/190 starter. For another, the White Sox are in excellent shape to dethrone the Twins. Mark Buehrle, Jon Garland and Dan Wright all carried 30/190 workloads last season. There's no reason general manager Ken Williams couldn't add one of the available 30/190 men. After non-tendering Todd Ritchie—who still could return—and Jim Parque, the Sox are obligated for only about $36.9 million to nine players under contract. It's unclear where club Chairman Jerry Reinsdorf wants the payroll. But he has room to cherry-pick the long list of free agents for another $7 million to $8 million worth of talent and still open the season at $50 million, down from $57 million at the start of 2002. Manager Jerry Manuel is sure to disagree, but four 30/190 starters—provided they remain healthy—should just about guarantee a playoff spot in the American League Central. Cleveland's C.C. Sabathia and Detroit's Mark Redman are the only other 30/190 starters on Central rosters The Pettite thing: Looking to Pettitte: While the Yankees would love to trade Orlando Hernandez or Sterling Hitchcock, they may have to consider dealing Andy Pettitte. If Reinsdorf could stomach his $11.5 million price tag, he would be a good fit. There's nothing flashy about Pettitte. But he's a stable force in the clubhouse and has proved his toughness in the biggest of games. With Roger Clemens and Contreras under contract, the Yankees have eight starting pitchers. That includes Mussina, David Wells and Jeff Weaver. They also have intriguing prospects in Danny Borrell and Julio DePaula, who could come along quickly. Yet GM Brian Cashman says he'll continue talking to Montreal about Bartolo Colon and Javier Vazquez. Cashman is looking for relievers in trades. The bullpen could be a White Sox strength. Billy Koch, Antonio Osuna and Damaso Marte are in the mix. Edwin Almonte and lefties Arnaldo Munoz and David Sanders could push Gary Glover, Matt Ginter, Kelly Wunsch and Mike Porzio for jobs in spring training. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mac9001 Posted January 5, 2003 Share Posted January 5, 2003 Its a great article, we wont get anyone better then Suppan, but he makes a good point that we should have at least 3 guys who will eat up innings giving us a half-way decnet rotation. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CubKilla Posted January 5, 2003 Share Posted January 5, 2003 Everything in the article makes sense but, obviously, the guy who wrote it has no idea who owns this team. A team that was serious about contending would pursue some of those moves, but JR only cares about the "bottom line." Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chisoxfn Posted January 5, 2003 Share Posted January 5, 2003 Everything in the article makes sense but, obviously, the guy who wrote it has no idea who owns this team. A team that was serious about contending would pursue some of those moves, but JR only cares about the "bottom line." This was one of the better articles I've read. He has some really good points and I do think we have one of the better all around pitching staffs in baseball, maybe even top 10, but at worse, top 15. We definately have plenty of holes, but how many teams have 5 starters. All I can think of are the Angels, Yankees, and Braves. The Phillies are on the verge of it, causethey got a lot of young talent as well. I'm probably forgetting some, but we still have a solid staff and a really good pen. I definately think this team should compete for the central and they could definately win it. Its a whole lot different team then we had opening day last year. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CubKilla Posted January 5, 2003 Share Posted January 5, 2003 Everything in the article makes sense but, obviously, the guy who wrote it has no idea who owns this team. A team that was serious about contending would pursue some of those moves, but JR only cares about the "bottom line." This was one of the better articles I've read. He has some really good points and I do think we have one of the better all around pitching staffs in baseball, maybe even top 10, but at worse, top 15. We definately have plenty of holes, but how many teams have 5 starters. All I can think of are the Angels, Yankees, and Braves. The Phillies are on the verge of it, causethey got a lot of young talent as well. I'm probably forgetting some, but we still have a solid staff and a really good pen. I definately think this team should compete for the central and they could definately win it. Its a whole lot different team then we had opening day last year. He's only right about our rotation if Garland and Wright are extremely successful this year. Our 4 and 5 starters aren't even set and Buehrle is the only starter on the White Sox that shows consistency. Garland and Wright are still too hot and cold from game-to-game to be considered even moderately consistent. The only reason why you can make an argument about us being in the Top 10-15 when it comes to SP is because SP is so thin throughout the League due to baseball expansion. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cwsox Posted January 6, 2003 Share Posted January 6, 2003 Our batters will be batting against the thin SP throughout the league. In thinking about the 2003 season, it is not just what we have and what we haven't got, but the same for every other team we play - what do they have and what haven't they got? I would love to see us trade for Pettite (if we can not give up anyone that I like ) or sign another 4th pitcher, but not at the risk of giving away too much simply because it is more than we have, it is also what everyone else does not have either. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
witesoxfan Posted January 6, 2003 Share Posted January 6, 2003 Holy s***, holy s*** holy s*** holy s*** holy s***......wow. I don't know what the hell to say about this....I would be so pumped. We could add only about $8.5 million in salary....give them Osuna, Wunsch, and Glover.....we take Pettitte. They get 3 good pitchers for the pen....we get a starter. Not only that, but then Rauch is in the rotation....we then have a bullpen of Koch, Marte, Biddle, Almonte, Munoz/Sanders, and Ginter/Adkins(yes, that same Adkins kid). The bullpen could be a possible question....but I don't care. That trade would be frickin incredible, and we'd be a team to beat with a good starting rotation, a good bullpen and a great lineup....our bullpen isn't as good as it normally would be, but it'd still be pretty good, or if we got lucky, it would be very good. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chisoxfn Posted January 6, 2003 Share Posted January 6, 2003 No way would I do that. We'd be losing all our strength in the bullpen. I know some here don't like Osuna, but he's a quality reliever, and Glover is a stud reliever with a great future. Wunsch is our lefty specialist and I think he does a good job at that. Plus, the Yanks aren't looking to pick up salary, if we were to get Pettite, I think it would soley be us giving them a nobody and taking on the salary, ala the Millwood deal. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cwsox Posted January 6, 2003 Share Posted January 6, 2003 Plus, the Yanks aren't looking to pick up salary, if we were to get Pettite, I think it would soley be us giving them a nobody and taking on the salary, ala the Millwood deal. I could almost have a non-sexual orgasm at picking up Perttite on those terms. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mac9001 Posted January 6, 2003 Share Posted January 6, 2003 If the Red Sox's get either Colon or Vazquez the Yankees would do anything to improve there staff, they might go out and sign another starter, so dont hold out on getting a Yankee pitcher. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
witesoxfan Posted January 6, 2003 Share Posted January 6, 2003 No way would I do that. We'd be losing all our strength in the bullpen. I know some here don't like Osuna, but he's a quality reliever, and Glover is a stud reliever with a great future. Wunsch is our lefty specialist and I think he does a good job at that. Plus, the Yanks aren't looking to pick up salary, if we were to get Pettite, I think it would soley be us giving them a nobody and taking on the salary, ala the Millwood deal. Osuna has had 3 good years in his career....otherwise, he's mediocre or injured. His first year, he struggled....his next 3 years were good(with the 2nd of those 3 being very good)....he then blew out his arm and came back medeciore(3.74 ERA)....he then blew out his arm for the Sox, and then came back mediocre....the past 4 years he's been injured one year and then mediocre the next....I don't want to take a risk that he'll suck ass or get injured. I like Glover, but they may not do the deal unless we actually give them someone good. And we have so many f***in lefty prospects that we can deal a few at the major league level....we have Sanders and Munoz who could be on the big league roster and Porzio deserves atleast a shot at something(maybe starter or reliever....something like that). Right now, we have Marte and Wunsch at the big league level....and you're telling me we couldn't give up Wunsch? For Andy Pettitte? Pettitte makes $11.5 mill next year....Osuna will make around $2.5 mill or so....Wunsch makes $500,000 and Glover will make near the league minimum....they are taking out a good chunk of their debt.....around $8 mill or so....hell, I would even take on half of that $3.5 mill or so on our salary.....and you can't tell me that our bullpen isn't still strong. Anyways, if we could get Pettitte for Osuna and Ginter, with us taking on half of Osuna's salary, I could live with it.....they would be taking $10 mill off their payroll atleast....and we could even get some cash in the deal, to help pay for his and even possibly Osuna's salary....in other words, they could send us $2.5 million, and we would take on about $2 mill of Osuna's salary....meaning they basically give us $2,500,000 but we can only use $500,000 of it....kind of nice if you ask me(if it were to happen). Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MurcieOne Posted January 6, 2003 Share Posted January 6, 2003 Plus, the Yanks aren't looking to pick up salary, if we were to get Pettite, I think it would soley be us giving them a nobody and taking on the salary, ala the Millwood deal. I could almost have a non-sexual orgasm at picking up Perttite on those terms. Im jerkin it just thinkin about it. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chisoxfn Posted January 6, 2003 Share Posted January 6, 2003 Still, wouldn't we of been better off taking on Millwood and his contract, while giving them Josh Paul and keeping Osuna, etc. That would of cost pretty much the same. I'd rather have Millwood then Pettite. Of course it is nice that Pettite has pitched in the AL. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
witesoxfan Posted January 6, 2003 Share Posted January 6, 2003 Not only has Pettitte pitched in the AL, but he is a lefty(which will help us greatly against the Twins)....something Millwood is not. Pettitte has pitched in a lot of big games in his career and pitched well....he's won, correct me if I'm wrong here, 4 World Series titles.....his hand is quite heavy with all his jewelry on it won from baseball. Millwood wishes he could wear the jewelry that Pettitte wears....as do every member of the Chicago White Sox. Pettitte most likely has the same number of wins in the playoffs as the White Sox as a team do playoff games played in the past 10 years(9). IMO, getting Pettitte makes more sense than a deal that would have gotten us Millwood. But I'm confused....is this just a hypothetical trade situation or are actual talks going on between the teams? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chisoxfn Posted January 6, 2003 Share Posted January 6, 2003 I haven't heard of any talks going on between the two teams. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cy Young Porzio Posted January 6, 2003 Share Posted January 6, 2003 lets not al forget about the main man of the pen, Porzio! With his support fromt he pen the Pettite deal could work out very nicely. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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