White Sox Sign RP Joe Kelly (2yrs with a club option; $17m)

[Two-Gun Pete]

Just now, mac9001 said:

I would have been fine with Rodon at the QO, but we correctly assumed he would likely find enough of a market to surpass the QO. At roughly 44M the risk is almost absurdly high given his health history. I'll take a league avg 2B and RP over Rodon any day.

At $44MM/2? Agreed.

But $18.9MM/1 should have been a slam dunk. Even with his injuries, because of the existence of Kopech and his IP limitations.

[Balta1701]

3 minutes ago, CeaseAndExist said:

Ok

You've guaranteed Kimbrel wont be traded. Let's see if you're right

I think he’s tradeable, as long as the White Sox eat some of his $16 million salary.

[CeaseAndExist]

Just now, Chicago White Sox said:

Weird take

Sucks is the wrong word, but I wouldn't give him the 4+ years at $20+ AAV he's reported to want, unless JR is actually going to pay a lux tax payroll of course.

I'd prefer a trade for someone like Peralta, then sign a SP and glove 1st C

[Balta1701]

8 minutes ago, Chicago White Sox said:

Did someone else sign Conforto?

As of right now, Spotrac has the white Sox with $21.9 million above the tax. As long as Conforto is at $20 million, they are healthier than average, and make no moves at the deadline, they can still fit him  under the tax.

[CaliSoxFanViaSWside]

1 hour ago, Chicago White Sox said:

Of course he is.  The Sox aren’t signing Joe Kelly to 2/$17M deal if they plan on keeping Kimbrel and you know that.

I know every spring you're optimistic because you're you and that's good. I just don't see why you expect the front office to make a Conforto signing while they continually express the thought that they think SP is more important unless you think that's a smokescreen while a Conforto signing would move the Sox into unprecedented payroll stratosphere even while dumping the Kimbrel contract and moreso if they can't dump the whole thing which is a distinct possibility.

If they can't dump the whole contract just add it to the how much has Kimbrel really cost the Sox ledger which now includes a cost controlled 2nd basemen in Madrigal, Heuer ( though now that doesnt look so bad), $7M for old man Harrison who isn't even left handed plus whatever salary the Sox end up having paid Kimbrel once he's traded. Just for fun throw in the possibility the whole Kimbrel mess could eventually lead Conforto not going to the Sox because we have no idea if the Sox can commit that kind of money to Conforto and still trade for a decent enough SP whose salary will have to also be paid.

For a guy who didn't like taking the gamble on Rodon you seem to be pretty calm that the team is filling up with old guys more prone to injury. But I will say one thing about you. I know you will be highly critical if 2 gun pete, Myself , thxfrthmmrs,Ray Ray and Balta end up correct and Conforto  goes somewhere else. That is looking more likely with every transaction the Sox make and the needs we still have.

Edited March 13, 2022 by CaliSoxFanViaSWside

[thxfrthmmrs]

15 minutes ago, CeaseAndExist said:

Everything in this post is wrong, everything.

Also, this board would have imploded if Hahn gave $68M guaranteed to a RP as inconsistent as Iglesias, and you would have been leading that charge. 

Good analysis.

[Two-Gun Pete]

40 minutes ago, thxfrthmmrs said:

Even if he’s getting traded, overspending on BP is the reason why we lost Madrigal. We’re being managed by someone who is about a decade or two behind in baseball who insists on throwing all the resources at BP and paying for past performance

 

Also FWIW the Dodgers who have unlimited payroll could have kept Kelly for $8M this year, yet they declined the option. We’re paying him $17M for next 2 years.

This, exactly. Even without Kimbrel, we're spending roughly double the league average on the BP, by % of payroll total. Its inefficient and backwards, particularly for a team with holes and an operating budget like the SOX.

Meanwhile, go ahead and look at the positional spending on OF. The SOX have young/cheaper options for LF/CF, but they've needed a RFer the second they cut Eaton. It shows, when the OFer spending is but ~9-ish% of the total payroll.

 

That aside, the news about LAD declining Kelly is a thing to ponder. Even with their unlimited payroll, those guys don't make many mistakes in their FO.

Here's hoping it works out.

Edited March 13, 2022 by Two-Gun Pete

[Two-Gun Pete]

7 minutes ago, CaliSoxFanViaSWside said:

I know every spring you're optimistic because you're you and that's good. I just don't see why you expect the front office to make a Conforto signing while they continually express the thought that they think SP is more important unless you think that's a smokescreen while a Conforto signing would move the Sox into unprecedented payroll stratosphere even while dumping the Kimbrel contract and moreso if they can't dump the whole thing which is a distinct possibility.

If they can't dump the whole contract just add it to the how much has Kimbrel really cost the Sox ledger which now includes a cost controlled 2nd basemen in Madrigal, Heuer ( though now that doesnt look so bad), $7M for old man Harrison who isn't even left handed plus whatever salary the Sox end up having paid Kimbrel once he's traded.

For a guy who didn't like taking the gamble on Rodon you seem to be pretty calm that the team is filling up with old guys more prone to injury. But I will say one thing about you. I know you will be highly critical if 2 gun pete, Myself , Ray Ray and Balta end up correct and Conforto  goes somewhere else.

Is it too late to hope for Suzuki + a SP?

[Balta1701]

Just now, Two-Gun Pete said:

Is it too late to hope for Suzuki + a SP?

Honestly, yes. There are no SP left on the market you want for the money. Suzuki could be fine, but what <$8 million SP do you want? Greinke? Duffy? Kluber? McHugh?

[CaliSoxFanViaSWside]

19 minutes ago, maloney.adam said:

Yeah Kimbrel is going to be traded. Maybe within the next 24 to 48 hours, maybe sooner. I don’t get why some people think they won’t trade him. 

Who exactly said he won't be traded ? I get why they got Kelly it's simple . They are getting rid of Kimbrel and Kopech isnt going to be used the way he was last year. I also get the total influx of GB relievers . I also hope old man Harrison can play an above average 2nd base to support all the GB type pitchers and is nifty turning a DP. But all you have to do is go back to last year and see all the people telling us here that the BP was lights out good to know and pound it into people's heads again that relievers are a messy bunch. I also know because of the lockout the 162 game schedule is being condensed and BP pieces are needed now more than ever but again it's built in excuses for TLR , Hahn and JR to keep doing what they have been doing.

It's also getting pretty old that the allocation of funds to relief pitcher is TLR , Hahn and JR tailor made to get less expensive players. If you get the position players you need 1st and because of that your BP sucks well then pick up BP pieces at the TDL . Good position players are the foundation of an exciting bombs away team but they are costly. Bullpen pieces are unexciting and volatile although necessary evil which should be secondary to acquire the LH strength we need. The condensed schedule is also why the money could be spent on a another starting pitcher over that much desire by the fanbase LH savage.

[Jack Parkman]

48 minutes ago, Chicago White Sox said:

Didn’t you say Kimbrel was terrible last year?  Because those are his full year numbers and they don’t look much different than two dudes who got $50M contracts.  ?

He was terrible after he got traded to the Sox. 

[thxfrthmmrs]

9 minutes ago, CaliSoxFanViaSWside said:

Who exactly said he won't be traded ? I get why they got Kelly it's simple . They are getting rid of Kimbrel and Kopech isnt going to be used the way he was last year. I also get the total influx of GB relievers . I also hope old man Harrison can play an above average 2nd base to support all the GB type pitchers and is nifty turning a DP. But all you have to do is go back to last year and see all the people telling us here that the BP was lights out good to know and pound it into people's heads again that relievers are a messy bunch. I also know because of the lockout the 162 game schedule is being condensed and BP pieces are needed now more than ever but again it's built in excuses for TLR , Hahn and JR to keep doing what they have been doing.

It's also getting pretty old that the allocation of funds to relief pitcher is TLR , Hahn and JR tailor made to get less expensive players. If you get the position players you need 1st and because of that your BP sucks well then pick up BP pieces at the TDL . Good position players are the foundation of an exciting bombs away team but they are costly. Bullpen pieces are unexciting and volatile although necessary evil which should be secondary to acquire the LH strength we need. The condensed schedule is also why the money could be spent on a another starting pitcher over that much desire by the fanbase LH savage.

Completely agreed on the priorities. I would never throw big money on two BP arms and then try to bargain hunt for RF, 2B and SP. Imagine if the bullpen expenditures took us out of the running for Conforto and we have to settle for Joc or someone worse.

[CaliSoxFanViaSWside]

28 minutes ago, Two-Gun Pete said:

Is it too late to hope for Suzuki + a SP?

I honestly think another 1 yr rental is going to happen in either RF or SP. It's their MO just as much as GB relief pitchers .

[CaliSoxFanViaSWside]

19 minutes ago, thxfrthmmrs said:

Completely agreed on the priorities. I would never throw big money on two BP arms and then try to bargain hunt for RF, 2B and SP. Imagine if the bullpen expenditures took us out of the running for Conforto and we have to settle for Joc or someone worse.

The Sox getting exceedingly close to that happening already.

[bmags]

I fucking love Joe Kelly.

Insanely bad offseason so far though. Even if they sign Conforto their planning looks like shit.

But sitting in the stands in October last year, Kelly was the number one guy I wanted to get for the bullpen. 

[bmags]

Very annoying how much draft capital and other assets sox spent in 2017-2019 for relief pitcher profiles, only to be using SO much of their position player savings on the bullpen.

Sox are pound wise and penny foolish and it drives me nuts. 

[Two-Gun Pete]

1 hour ago, Balta1701 said:

Honestly, yes. There are no SP left on the market you want for the money. Suzuki could be fine, but what <$8 million SP do you want? Greinke? Duffy? Kluber? McHugh?

Well, I had wanted a SP before all else; I'd wanted Rodon, or Kikuchi, but we really needed more RP depth.

Maybe Kwang Hyun Kim, if we tell RH/KW that he can pitch out of the Pen, and spot-start?

54 minutes ago, CaliSoxFanViaSWside said:

I honestly think another 1 yr rental is going to happen in either RF or SP. It's their MO just as much as GB relief pitchers .

Yeah, Im afraid you're correct. As much as I'd hate it, it could be Soler.

I'll still wish on Suzuki, but I doubt that will happen.

[ChiSoxFanMike]

38 minutes ago, bmags said:

I fucking love Joe Kelly.

Insanely bad offseason so far though. Even if they sign Conforto their planning looks like shit.

But sitting in the stands in October last year, Kelly was the number one guy I wanted to get for the bullpen. 

I’m reserving judgement until the offseason is over. As of now I’m not impressed, but we’ll see the rest of the plan unfold soon.

I do agree with your point of them using too much capital on relievers. Finding good relievers off the scrap heap is one of the few things the Sox are actually good at as a franchise, yet they spend big dollars on relievers every single offseason anyway. Don’t make much sense to me considering the other needs on the roster.

[CaliSoxFanViaSWside]

4 minutes ago, Two-Gun Pete said:

Well, I had wanted a SP before all else; I'd wanted Rodon, or Kikuchi, but we really needed more RP depth.

Maybe Kwang Hyun Kim, if we tell RH/KW that he can pitch out of the Pen, and spot-start?

Yeah, Im afraid you're correct. As much as I'd hate it, it could be Soler.

I'll still wish on Suzuki, but I doubt that will happen.

And the 1 rental SP everyone seemed focused on, Bassitt, is gone to the Mets now for pitching prospects. Hmm I do recall hoping the Sox could trade with the Mets for prospects. But they just added another $9M to their payroll and that is after they supposedly wanted to move some position players to stay below the CBT. Paying the tax might not matter that much to Cohen after all. But I wouldn't mind if Nimmo was available even if he's just a rental. But more than likely they try to rid themselves of McCann, McNeil, Dom Smith and/or JD Davis before Nimmo.

Soler is another RHH and would be  massive failure.

[caulfield12]

16 minutes ago, Two-Gun Pete said:

Well, I had wanted a SP before all else; I'd wanted Rodon, or Kikuchi, but we really needed more RP depth.

Maybe Kwang Hyun Kim, if we tell RH/KW that he can pitch out of the Pen, and spot-start?

Yeah, Im afraid you're correct. As much as I'd hate it, it could be Soler.

I'll still wish on Suzuki, but I doubt that will happen.

Didn't Kim already go back to Korea?

[caulfield12]

7 minutes ago, CaliSoxFanViaSWside said:

And the 1 rental SP everyone seemed focused on, Bassitt, is gone to the Mets now for pitching prospects. Hmm I do recall hoping the Sox could trade with the Mets for prospects. But they just added another $9M to their payroll and that is after they supposedly wanted to move some position players to stay below the CBT. Paying the tax might not matter that much to Cohen after all. But I wouldn't mind if Nimmo was available even if he's just a rental. But more than likely they try to rid themselves of McCann, McNeil, Dom Smith and/or JD Davis before Nimmo.

Soler is another RHH and would be  massive failure.

Someone like Eddie Rosario would be the typical Sox add if Jon Jay's unavailable, haha...already familiar with the AL Central and more than capable of playing below average corner defense.

Almost would have preferred Andrelton Simmons at 2B for $1.5 million less.  At least you know you will get solid defense out of him.

Edited March 13, 2022 by caulfield12

[Two-Gun Pete]

8 minutes ago, caulfield12 said:

Didn't Kim already go back to Korea?

Yup, you're right.

And this is why I wanted a SP first. The SP market went quick.

[CaliSoxFanViaSWside]

4 minutes ago, Two-Gun Pete said:

Yup, you're right.

And this is why I wanted a SP first. The SP market went quick.

Back to the drawing board. There's always that other trade I proposed for Zac Gallen and Daulton Varsho. LOL as if AZ is going to give them up.

Edited March 13, 2022 by CaliSoxFanViaSWside

[bmags]

Do y’all like Anibal Sanchez cause I feel like that’s where we are headed

[maxjusttyped]

I'm just gonna say this quietly and back away.... if the Sox make a meaningful addition in RF (Bryant, Conforto, Suzuki) I could deal with a guy like Greinke or Tyler Anderson as the 5th starter.

That at least pushes Kuechel and Lopez into depth roles and also reduces the number of starts we'd see from Lambert, Stiever etc this year.