White Sox Sign RP Joe Kelly (2yrs with a club option; $17m)

[Chicago White Sox]

1 hour ago, Two-Gun Pete said:

Spotrac has the SOX as having the 2nd most payroll committed to relief pitchers. 25% of the payroll is committed to relievers.

So, when we get to drink in the goodness of Josh Harrison at 2B, or have to watch our 1B/DH types stumble about the OF, now you'll know why.

That said, I'm told I can't ever criticize RH, because he's just right about these things. So, be careful around these parts.

Kimbrel is getting traded, but keep on trolling bro…

[Chicago White Sox]

1 hour ago, Look at Ray Ray Run said:

The Sox have spent at least 20 million, technically 36 million, per year on their bullpen acquisitions this off-season. As of now, that'll likely be more than 70% of their total yearly amount allocated this off-season, if they move Kimbrel we're probably talking about 50-60% of their total resource allocation. You just can't tell me that 2 of the past three off-seasons, spending more than 50-60% of your total resources on relievers is a good strategy. 

Again, please tell us all what you would have done with the bullpen.  It’s easy to criticize, but it’s all meaningless without a superior alternative.

[Two-Gun Pete]

6 minutes ago, Chicago White Sox said:

Kimbrel is getting traded, but keep on trolling bro…

Ok. If they can remove all $16MM of Kimbrel, but then add back Kelly's $8.5MM, guess what:

 

They're still 3rd in MLB in BP spending. Don't believe me? Here. Spotrac says so.

But again, that assumes that the rest of the league believes that there's any threat of Kimbrel still being here, and thus, RH has negotiating leverage in trade

 

 

 

What were you saying about "trolling," again?

 

Thanks. Hope the cruise is going well.

Edited March 13, 2022 by Two-Gun Pete

[Two-Gun Pete]

20 minutes ago, CentralChamps21 said:

If there are no more moves, this roster is probably in the same neighborhood as 2021, but I don't believe that the moves are over.

Well, the rotation is minus 4.9 fWAR from last season. I'm not seeing a whole lot of evident options to shore that up in the market. 

Unless Kopech is more durable than I believe him to be, I think this roster is diminished from 2021. 

Absent that, we're also hoping on better health from the rest of the roster, which we were doing, in any case.

18 minutes ago, ptatc said:

Here's another honest question.

Is this the roster with which they will start the season?

Oh, I like it:

Answering a question with a question. I'm game. Ill tell you that their work this offseason has been heretofore disappointing. It doesn't inspire confidence that they will make a sea change in GM performance. It'll take a Suzuki or Conforto to substantially improve the overall talent level of this roster, IMO. 

We'll have to see. 

 

Now, as I'd asked: What do you see in the additions that leads you to believe that this roster is better than the one from 2021?

Edited March 13, 2022 by Two-Gun Pete

[maloney.adam]

Lol

[ptatc]

4 minutes ago, Two-Gun Pete said:

Well, the rotation is minus 4.9 fWAR from last season. I'm not seeing a whole lot of evident options to shore that up in the market. 

Unless Kopech is more durable than I believe him to be, I think this roster is diminished from 2021. 

Absent that, we're also hoping on better health from the rest of the roster, which we were doing, in any case.

Oh, I like it:

Answering a question with a question. I'm game. Ill tell you that their work this offseason has been heretofore disappointing. It doesn't inspire confidence that they will make a sea change in GM performance. It'll take a Suzuki or Conforto to substantially improve the overall talent level of this roster, IMO. 

We'll have to see. 

 

Now, as I'd asked: What do you see in the additions that leads you to believe that this roster is better than the one from 2021?

As I said, I prefer to wait until I have all of the information and see how the roster fits together.

Why make a judgment when you don't have all the information? 

If they stand pat bad. If they trade for Manea, good. 

If they sign Conforto and trade for Manea even better.

 

However it's all hypothetical so there is no way to judge until they are done.

 

[Two-Gun Pete]

Just now, ptatc said:

As I said, I prefer to wait until I have all of the information and see how the roster fits together.

Why make a judgment when you don't have all the information? 

If they stand pat bad. If they trade for Manea, good. 

If they sign Conforto and trade for Manea even better.

 

However it's all hypothetical so there is no way to judge until they are done.

As optiona disappeat from the market, I posed the question as a check-in.

You're an educator, if memory serves. Consider my question a "mid term" of what this FO has accomplished so far.

As a reminder, our enemies have made additions, both those that are inside the ALC, and across the league.

[Chicago White Sox]

22 minutes ago, Two-Gun Pete said:

Ok. If they can remove all $16MM of Kimbrel, but then add back Kelly's $8.5MM, guess what:

 

They're still 3rd in MLB in BP spending. Don't believe me? Here. Spotrac says so.

But again, that assumes that the rest of the league believes that there's any threat of Kimbrel still being here, and thus, RH has negotiating leverage in trade

 

 

 

What were you saying about "trolling," again?

 

Thanks. Hope the cruise is going well.

You crack me up.  How much of their total payroll is going to relievers if Kimbrel is dumped?  And how does that compare to the rest of the league?

[maloney.adam]

 

[ptatc]

3 minutes ago, Two-Gun Pete said:

As optiona disappeat from the market, I posed the question as a check-in.

You're an educator, if memory serves. Consider my question a "mid term" of what this FO has accomplished so far.

As a reminder, our enemies have made additions, both those that are inside the ALC, and across the league.

I don't give midterms just for that reason.

But if you read my answer,  I did answer it.

Edited March 13, 2022 by ptatc

[CeaseAndExist]

4 minutes ago, Two-Gun Pete said:

As optiona disappeat from the market, I posed the question as a check-in.

You're an educator, if memory serves. Consider my question a "mid term" of what this FO has accomplished so far.

As a reminder, our enemies have made additions, both those that are inside the ALC, and across the league.

little gun petey is on another heater tonight lol. This is fun stuff

[Two-Gun Pete]

1 minute ago, Chicago White Sox said:

You crack me up.  How much of their total payroll is going to relievers if Kimbrel is dumped?  And how does that compare to the rest of the league?

I'm glad I fill your heart with joy as you traverse the open seas.

Once again, I'll provide you with the source data Courtesy of Spotrac.

 

For argument's sake If, IF they can dump all $16MM of Kimbrel (which I doubt they can, but IF), they will spend $34.5MM, which is all of $800k less than SD.

League average is $13.89MM for an entire BP.

You can peruse the link, but it is clear that this org appears to be overallocated into RP salaries, even without Kimbrel.

 

[Two-Gun Pete]

2 minutes ago, CeaseAndExist said:

little gun petey is on another heater tonight lol. This is fun stuff

Thank you "Ceasey." 

[Jerksticks]

1 minute ago, Two-Gun Pete said:

I'm glad I fill your heart with joy as you traverse the open seas.

Once again, I'll provide you with the source data Courtesy of Spotrac.

 

For argument's sake If, IF they can dump all $16MM of Kimbrel (which I doubt they can, but IF), they will spend $34.5MM, which is all of $800k less than SD.

League average is $13.89MM for an entire BP.

You can peruse the link, but it is clear that this org appears to be overallocated into RP salaries, even without Kimbrel.

 

Nice!  That’s what happens when you compiled a massive core of impact young talent.  Gotta spend somewhere

[Two-Gun Pete]

2 minutes ago, Jerksticks said:

Nice!  That’s what happens when you compiled a massive core of impact young talent.  Gotta spend somewhere

I'd rather spend it on a TOR SP, or I dunno, Semien when he was available, or yes, Conforto or Suzuki.

RPs are indeed important, but they don't produce as much fWAR as everyday players.

Were they closer to say, $20-ishMM on the BP, that's still well above the league average outlay. But that would also mean that Conforto might already be here, or a proper replacement for Rodon could have been signed.

Edited March 13, 2022 by Two-Gun Pete

[ptatc]

Just now, Two-Gun Pete said:

I'd rather spend it on a TOR SP, or I dunno, Semien when he was available, or yes, Conforto or Suzuki.

RPs are indeed important, but they don't produce as much fWAR as everyday players.

That is the inherent flaw with WAR of any kind. It's a counting stat which doesn't take into consideration the impact those innings have on a game.

[Chicago White Sox]

3 minutes ago, Two-Gun Pete said:

I'm glad I fill your heart with joy as you traverse the open seas.

Once again, I'll provide you with the source data Courtesy of Spotrac.

 

For argument's sake If, IF they can dump all $16MM of Kimbrel (which I doubt they can, but IF), they will spend $34.5MM, which is all of $800k less than SD.

League average is $13.89MM for an entire BP.

You can peruse the link, but it is clear that this org appears to be overallocated into RP salaries, even without Kimbrel.

 

I don’t need to do shit.  You’re the one whining about how we’re spending more than most teams on our bullpen, but not acknowledging that we’re spending more than 24 teams on our total payroll.  So tell me what percentage of our total payroll post Kimbrel trade is going towards the bullpen and how that compares to the rest of the league?  If you’re going to destroy this site with your non-stop bitching, at least man up and do some basic arithmetic to support your underlying point.

[Balta1701]

38 minutes ago, Chicago White Sox said:

Kimbrel is getting traded, but keep on trolling bro…

Joe Kelly gets as much in 2 years as Kimbrel gets in 1: “this totally shows Kimbrel is being traded.”

White Sox sign Harrison, showing who rejected the Kimbrel for Segura concept: “Kimbrel still has plenty of value!”

Every day goes by with no Kimbrel trade: “This just means Hahn has so many offers for him that he’s unwilling to choose and obviously is willing to let suitors go other places because there’s no possible risk, not that he has no one willing to absorb that whole contract.”

There is obviously no commonality here that would magically make them all make sense. Not at all like they all totally fit with “no one will take on that whole contract and they’re waiting to see if someone comes closer once Jansen gets like $12 million.”

People will be insisting Kimbrel will be traded tomorrow on June 15.

[Tnetennba]

48 minutes ago, southsider2k5 said:

That's what Jack always said too.

Are we sure they aren’t the same person?  Or the same compliant bot?

[maxjusttyped]

1 minute ago, ptatc said:

That is the inherent flaw with WAR of any kind. It's a counting stat which doesn't take into consideration the impact those innings have on a game.

I believe there actually is a leverage component to fWAR for relievers. There's just no way to make the math work where even the best relievers like Hendriks, Hader etc produce the same value as good every day players.

https://blogs.fangraphs.com/we-provide-leverage-a-thought-experiment/

[Two-Gun Pete]

11 minutes ago, Chicago White Sox said:

I don’t need to do shit.  You’re the one whining about how we’re spending more than most teams on our bullpen, but not acknowledging that we’re spending more than 24 teams on our total payroll.  So tell me what percentage of our total payroll post Kimbrel trade is going towards the bullpen and how that compares to the rest of the league?  If you’re going to destroy this site with your non-stop bitching, at least man up and do some basic arithmetic to support your underlying point.

What, so you can't do arithmetic now?

 

Also, I'm not the only one "whining" about the BP outlays. We can drink in the glory of Keuchel and Lambert starts in July, because the overallocated payroll into RPs now.

 

Here, I'll help you out with a word problem: According to the link I've now provided to you thrice, the SOX total payroll is $173MM (not including bennies), with Kimbrel. Assuming RH works miracles, and dumps all glorious $16MM of Kimbrel:

$173MM - $16MM = $157MM.

From the link I've provided to you, without Kimbrel, the BP spending is at $34.5MM.

$34.5MM / $157MM = 21.9% spent on the BP.

League average is 11.79%

 

Better? 

 

Enjoy your cruise.

 

Edited March 13, 2022 by Two-Gun Pete

[Two-Gun Pete]

1 minute ago, Balta1701 said:

Joe Kelly gets as much in 2 years as Kimbrel gets in 1: “this totally shows Kimbrel is being traded.”

White Sox sign Harrison, showing who rejected the Kimbrel for Segura concept: “Kimbrel still has plenty of value!”

Every day goes by with no Kimbrel trade: “This just means Hahn has so many offers for him that he’s unwilling to choose and obviously is willing to let suitors go other places because there’s no possible risk, not that he has no one willing to absorb that whole contract.”

There is obviously no commonality here that would magically make them all make sense. Not at all like they all totally fit with “no one will take on that whole contract and they’re waiting to see if someone comes closer once Jansen gets like $12 million.”

People will be insisting Kimbrel will be traded tomorrow on June 15.

Oh my God, stop "whining" about Kimbrel!

 

[ptatc]

2 minutes ago, maxjusttyped said:

I believe there actually is a leverage component to fWAR for relievers. There's just no way to make the math work where even the best relievers like Hendriks, Hader etc produce the same value as good every day players.

https://blogs.fangraphs.com/we-provide-leverage-a-thought-experiment/

That's my point. All stats are useful but to rely on a single one in any profession will never tell the entire story.

[Two-Gun Pete]

25 minutes ago, ptatc said:

That is the inherent flaw with WAR of any kind. It's a counting stat which doesn't take into consideration the impact those innings have on a game.

That's exactly the point, which the book Moneyball covered a generation ago (and who got the idea from statheads long before that):

RPs don't pitch enough to amass WAR in a meaningful way. On a dollar-for-dollar basis, its more efficient to allocate payroll resources into everyday players. Whats more, RPs' volatile tendencies in performance make it difficult to accurately predict who will and who won't be great bets.

Yes, due to their specialized roles,RPs are necessary. But they're not the talismanic items this FO believes them to be.

Edited March 13, 2022 by Two-Gun Pete

[CaliSoxFanViaSWside]

32 minutes ago, Chicago White Sox said:

Kimbrel is getting traded, but keep on trolling bro…

Oh come now he isn't trolling. I don't get it why people cannot be critical of the FO and management without everyone telling them how critical they are or telling them they are trolling. I consider Ray Ray and 2 Gun knowledgeable guys . I never agree with everything they say but they do know the front office history of never quite finishing things off.

Yes the team has a record payroll this year but as we can see lately there has been a lot of older vets picked up. Kelly, Kimbrel, Harrison, Lynn, Keuchel, Hendriks with lots of youth jettisoned with likely more youth jettisoned to find a starting pitcher. Kimbrel alone cost the Sox Madrigal and Heuer and the $7M used for Harrison and Kimbrel's salary. They decided Rodon wasn't worth a QO even though he's 29 and coming off the best pitching his career. SF wants to win . Do the Sox because the next move better be trading Kimbrel or you can kiss your dreams of Conforto goodbye. Might as well kiss Vaughn goodbye too because now the Sox are under the gun to make a trade for a starting pitcher who will probably have just as much injury risk as Rodon without the really high upside and probably also approaching his mid 30's. But hey the Sox might keep Vaughn and sign 38 yr old Zack Greinke ,39 yr old JA Happ ,or Danny Duffy or Zach Davies .

If the Sox get Castellanos instead what happened to getting more LH ?

Are they making any attempt to fix the farm ? At least with my trade proposal with the Mets it was getting some good young talent while taking on a bad contract while also dumping one and made us more left handed and younger and got us decent defensive catcher for backup. It wasn't realistic but I'd like to see something creative instead of the same OLD schtick.