Offseason Part 3 - Because Part 2 Was a Dud

[SoCalChiSox]

6 minutes ago, Balta1701 said:

Unfortunately, not only were the White Sox willing to lose Machado over opt-outs, I'm not sure of any contract where they've offered one.

I'm not defending their cheapness as a general matter and it felt horrible at the time but in retrospect it was better that he went to SD. Moncada has been worth just about as much value at 3B at a fraction of the cost and given our infamous artificial budget limits, it's not clear how many extensions or other contracts that we actually got done (Robert, Grandal, Moncada etc) would have been approved if the "money got spent" on Machado.

[ptatc]

3 minutes ago, chw42 said:

Because players who have a bad season at 29 never bounce back again, ever. 

I know it might seem weird to give a player coming off a 0.8 WAR season a large contract, but Conforto's track record is far better than the results he posted in 2021. 

It does cast a doubt though. 

[Look at Ray Ray Run]

20 minutes ago, ptatc said:

That does make it harder to accept a lesser deal just from an ego sense.

Poor Ian Desmond.

[Rey21]

Conforto is not worth $100 mil contract especially after last year. It’s too damn risky, Castellanos though I’d do it. Sucks that Hahn and Jerry seem to want nothing to do with him though for whatever reason. But seeing what he did with the Cubs in 19 and then last year too he’s the guy. Let Engel be the 8th-9th inning defender 

Edited March 18, 2022 by Rey21

[JoeCredeYes]

1 hour ago, chw42 said:

 

The shoulder thing probably explains why Engel struggled at the plate in the 2nd half of the season. 

First half Engel was surprisingly good last year. 

Can dude just learn to run at 85% every now and then?  I love the effort, but it'd be nice to have him available all year. 

[CentralChamps21]

Do I think Conforto would be better than Vaughn/Sheets/Engel for RF? Yes.

Do I think the difference would be large enough to throw 5/$100 at him? No.

Offer him 2/$35 or 3/$45 and if someone beats that offer, let them have him and play the trade market in July.

I think the team is helped a lot more by trading for Montas, Manaea, or whoever else is on the market. If there's only one transaction left before the season starts, that's the one I hope it is.

Schwarber, on the other hand, I would have matched or even topped what he got. He would have been a beast in between Jose and Eloy.

Edited March 18, 2022 by CentralChamps21

[Balta1701]

2 minutes ago, ptatc said:

It does cast a doubt though. 

That's the only reason his market isn't higher.

[ptatc]

2 minutes ago, Look at Ray Ray Run said:

Poor Ian Desmond.

Yep. Many times the deals are more about getting more than a certain other player more than the actual money. They get on each other in the locker room constantly.

[chw42]

1 minute ago, ptatc said:

It does cast a doubt though. 

I don't disagree. It's why I can see a lot of teams offering him shorter deals to have him prove himself again so he can hit the market and get a bigger deal. 

[ptatc]

1 minute ago, Balta1701 said:

That's the only reason his market isn't higher.

Agreed.

[Polar Bear]

4 minutes ago, chw42 said:

Because players who have a bad season at 29 never bounce back again, ever. 

I know it might seem weird to give a player coming off a 0.8 WAR season a large contract, but Conforto's track record is far better than the results he posted in 2021. 

 

1 minute ago, ptatc said:

It does cast a doubt though. 

And the doubt leads to this big question, is Conforto a player that is worth making up 1/8th of your payroll, yeah he would be 1/8th of the payroll....

 

[Tnetennba]

1 minute ago, SoCalChiSox said:

I'm not defending their cheapness as a general matter and it felt horrible at the time but in retrospect it was better that he went to SD. Moncada has been worth just about as much value at 3B at a fraction of the cost and given our infamous artificial budget limits, it's not clear how many extensions or other contracts that we actually got done (Robert, Grandal, Moncada etc) would have been approved if the "money got spent" on Machado.

I never really thought Manny was worth the 10/30, but it was still so aggravating to watch the FO lose another prized FA because they refused to act like a big market franchise.  But I have no doubt that they wouldn't have spent elsewhere had they locked up such a contract.  It's a strange contradiction.  I know how they operate so I doubt they do what it would take to sign Conforto, but they absolutely *should* because that's what winning teams do.  But that's not and will never be how this ownership group operates.

[Dick Allen]

Usually free agents who were pretty mediocre before having a big year their free agent year, go back to being mediocre. Conforto isn't the first guy who was thought to be in line for huge money, to have a bad free agent season, but I don't know the track record of similar players.

[JoeCredeYes]

12 minutes ago, chw42 said:

Because players who have a bad season at 29 never bounce back again, ever. 

I know it might seem weird to give a player coming off a 0.8 WAR season a large contract, but Conforto's track record is far better than the results he posted in 2021. 

His career splits aren't much better, which has been my beef the entire time.  Sure, he'd be much better than our current RF options, but the potential cost for a dude that is abysmal vs LHP is worrisome.

Career Splits:

RHP: .265/.371/.502

LHP: .227/.315/.380

for comparison, Leury Garcia career LHP splits: .287/.315/.380

[CaliSoxFanViaSWside]

57 minutes ago, michelangelosmonkey said:

First I think IP is not a fair metric.   If a pitcher is super efficient 8 innings could be the same number of pitches as a wilder pitchers 4 innings.  Number of pitches thrown has always been the metric I've heard.   Then I think these are two entirely different situations.  Looking at Rodon at this point last year...they had just signed him for pocket change.  He said he was ready to be a starter so they said...ok...starters throw 100 pitches per start...show us.  Then he was REALLY good.  And they never abused him...he only threw over 110 pitches once and that was in his no-hitter and it was only 114 pitches.  They were consistent in his usage...throwing 95+ pitches in every start for the first 16 games and game 16 he pitched a one hitter.  So it didn't look like he was tiring.  Also they didn't have him under contract for the next season so it was an interesting gamble to push him to see if he was past his injury problems.  

Kopech on the other hand is the FRANCHISE...plus he's young and has never really pitched a big league schedule.  I'm sure they are going to baby him as a starter this year as they babied him last year.      

Ok fine use pitch count I'm good with that. Point remains your pitch count will be less if you just go 5 innings, even if you're at 60 pitches for those 5 innings . It was not, nor was it ever an "interesting gamble", to push him to see if he was past his injury issues. No one does that to a pitcher who had pitched 41 innings in the last 2 years , has a history of arm problems, turns into your best pitcher  when you want your best pitcher to be available for the playoffs. There was zero reasons for the Sox to push him so hard in the 1/2 half of the season.

Keep an eye on how the Angels use Syndergaard and Houston uses Verlander. I also suspect the Giants will not push Rodon either, even though he now has some innings under his belt from last year so you could expect an increase this year from him , but will certainly throw in a calculus for the playoffs and his health history.

[ChiSoxFanMike]

7 minutes ago, JoeCredeYes said:

His career splits aren't much better, which has been my beef the entire time.  Sure, he'd be much better than our current RF options, but the potential cost for a dude that is abysmal vs LHP is worrisome.

Career Splits:

RHP: .265/.371/.502

LHP: .227/.315/.380

for comparison, Leury Garcia career LHP splits: .287/.315/.380

He’s a stud against right handers. That’s why you sign him.

[Chicago White Sox]

13 minutes ago, Polar Bear said:

Bc he is a .230-.250 plattoon bat with around 15-20 HR per year.  

That is not worth $25M/year

That is not worth $20M/year

That is not worth $15M/year

That's is barely worth $10M/year

 

I would literally rather have Adam Dunn back then pay $20-25M per year for blah.  It would be much better to play Vaughn/Sheets in RF bc they ahoiod get you at least what Xofnorto will if not better it. 

Are we talking about the same player?  He averaged 29 HRs from 2017 to 2019 (including one season he only played 109 games).  In 2020 he was on pace for 23 HRs.  His batting average during this same period was .265, his OBP was .369, his OPS was .864, and his wRC+ was 133.  In terms of splits, his wRC+ against RHP was 143 and against LHP 109.  He may not be great against lefties, but he’s not a true platoon guy.

Basically none of what you said is true and is probably based entirely on his injured riddled 2021 season.  Comparing him to Dunn is just lazy and stupid.  And I’d wager significant money that Conforto more overall value than you’d get out of a Sheets / Vaughn combo in RF unless you close your eyes and pretend defense doesn’t matter.

[Look at Ray Ray Run]

8 minutes ago, JoeCredeYes said:

His career splits aren't much better, which has been my beef the entire time.  Sure, he'd be much better than our current RF options, but the potential cost for a dude that is abysmal vs LHP is worrisome.

Career Splits:

RHP: .265/.371/.502

LHP: .227/.315/.380

for comparison, Leury Garcia career LHP splits: .287/.315/.380

Which is kind of why I think the Sox are a real nice fit for him because they smash lefties and can afford a bat who struggles a bit against them. 

[Two-Gun Pete]

14 minutes ago, JoeCredeYes said:

His career splits aren't much better, which has been my beef the entire time.  Sure, he'd be much better than our current RF options, but the potential cost for a dude that is abysmal vs LHP is worrisome.

Career Splits:

RHP: .265/.371/.502

LHP: .227/.315/.380

 

Holy shit, I had no idea. As you said, this is indeed worrisome.

 

Well, this is what happens when your FO are too stupid and/or too lazy to put in the work necessary when evaluating an overall offseason strategy. Spending big on a guy with massive handedness split differences i inefficient.

 

That said, he's basically the only option left, so we should all try to find something to like about him, I guess...

Edited March 18, 2022 by Two-Gun Pete

[fathom]

3 minutes ago, Timmy U said:

I would hope not. IMHO, Sox problems turning 2 last year really had more to do with Madrigal having a 40 arm, Leury being better on the left side of the infield, Hernandez slumping after the trade and lack of stability than with shared language. I mean, defensive positioning is done with hand signals and "I got it" is not a tough phrase to memorize, but who knows?

Anderson also sucks at turning two coming across the bag 

[EloyJenkins]

12 minutes ago, JoeCredeYes said:

His career splits aren't much better, which has been my beef the entire time.  Sure, he'd be much better than our current RF options, but the potential cost for a dude that is abysmal vs LHP is worrisome.

Career Splits:

RHP: .265/.371/.502

LHP: .227/.315/.380

for comparison, Leury Garcia career LHP splits: .287/.315/.380

this guy Vaughn and this other guy Engel hit LHPs...pretty well. 

[chw42]

Just now, YouCanPutItOnTheBoardYES! said:

He’s a stud against right handers. That’s why you sign him.

We've been trying to get a left handed power bat forever, but now that left handed power bat also has to be great against lefties too? Isn't that the strength of this offense? So the only guys we'd be okay giving money to are Juan Soto-types?

The fair market rate for Conforto is around $20 million a year. If the Sox aren't willing to pay that, that's fine. But let's not act like that would be some kind of bad contract and that whoever pays that is absurd. Cause guess what, if Conforto were able to also hit left handed pitching well, he'd cost north of $30 million a year. 

[Polar Bear]

5 minutes ago, YouCanPutItOnTheBoardYES! said:

He’s a stud against right handers. That’s why you sign him.

You mean on stud in MLB the Show?

[bmags]

94 wRC+ vs lefties is abysmal huh.

I was hoping we can scrape a 94 wRC+ total out of our 2b.

[ChiSox59]

7 minutes ago, JoeCredeYes said:

His career splits aren't much better, which has been my beef the entire time.  Sure, he'd be much better than our current RF options, but the potential cost for a dude that is abysmal vs LHP is worrisome.

Career Splits:

RHP: .265/.371/.502

LHP: .227/.315/.380

for comparison, Leury Garcia career LHP splits: .287/.315/.380

You're not signing Conforto for his hitting against lefties tho.  The Sox offense takes a large step back against RHP, especially good ones.  We will see alot of that in the playoffs.  This lineup badly needs to improve in that regard and Conforto goes a long long long way to do that.  Sox having plenty of sticks that absolutely mash lefties.  Shit, just sit Conforto on the bench against lefties and let Engel or Leury get some PT.  

I get the concern about handing Conforto 5/$110M.  I definitely prefer something closer to the Yaz deal.  But not sure ~$4M AAV and 1 guaranteed year is worth losing him over.