Offseason Part 3 - Because Part 2 Was a Dud

[Chicago White Sox]

3 minutes ago, fathom said:

Under no circumstance do I think a team takes on his whole salary.

Then it was a massive mistake to pick up that option.

[fathom]

Just now, Chicago White Sox said:

Then it was a massive mistake to pick up that option.

Not if they get a good prospect back 

[Balta1701]

4 minutes ago, fathom said:

Under no circumstance do I think a team takes on his whole salary.

Under no circumstances do I think the White Sox are eating nearly all of his contract for a prospect return.

[ChiSox59]

36 minutes ago, Y2Jimmy0 said:

If they have offers where they're eating some of the money on Kimbrel, it makes sense to wait. Showcase him and maybe someone's closer gets hurt. They can just make a deal where they eat at the end of spring if necessary. Waiting is fine. 

Waiting is fine if they just sign Conforto. If Kimbrel deal has anything to do with ability to sign Conforto, waiting means you’re gonna miss out of him if you wait much longer. 

[Balta1701]

1 minute ago, fathom said:

Not if they get a good prospect back 

I think Jimmy is completely right on this - they can’t get anyone to take on his whole deal, so they are holding out to see what the largest chunk they can move is. That sounds very white Sox.

[caulfield12]

"As I wrote in December, White Sox GM Rick Hahn spoke openly about trading Kimbrel, saying, “We’ve had conversations with other clubs and have a sense of what is potentially available.” Hahn added, “It’s easy to make the assessment that if you put him back in the closer’s role, it’s what he’s accustomed to and he’s more likely to have success.” I don’t find that to be a particularly reliable assessment: put Kimbrel back in a closer role, and he’ll be good again.  That didn’t prove true for the Cubs in 2019 or 2020.

I think the White Sox would very much like to trade Kimbrel, but they may have overestimated his popularity in the market at his salary.  Perhaps they’ll need to kick in a few million or take a decent-sized contract back to make it more palatable.  I’m not sure if an intra-division trade could be worked out, but the Royals have spoken of trying to upgrade their bullpen.  The Rays, Rangers, Blue Jays, Marlins, Mets, and Phillies could make some sense, but only if the money can be worked out and if the White Sox finds a team that actually believes Kimbrel will succeed in ’22."

Repost from earlier in thread...

[fathom]

1 minute ago, Balta1701 said:

I think Jimmy is completely right on this - they can’t get anyone to take on his whole deal, so they are holding out to see what the largest chunk they can move is. That sounds very white Sox.

Fegan said the same thing.  I’m hoping they eat something like 5 million and get a good (not top 150) prospect.  

[caulfield12]

2 minutes ago, Balta1701 said:

I think Jimmy is completely right on this - they can’t get anyone to take on his whole deal, so they are holding out to see what the largest chunk they can move is. That sounds very white Sox.

In the meantime, all their options are evaporating by the hour while they sweat it out.

[Vote4Pedro]

Don’t know if this was posted before or not but it says he turned down 9 figures a year ago 

[Balta1701]

Just now, fathom said:

Fegan said the same thing.  I’m hoping they eat something like 5 million and get a good (not top 150) prospect.  

Oh I think it’s a bag of balls and a couple million to move him if it happens. They just want the couple million to be as small as it can be.

[caulfield12]

1 minute ago, fathom said:

Fegan said the same thing.  I’m hoping they eat something like 5 million and get a good (not top 150) prospect.  

So they can reallocate that $11 million to what quality of starter?   Getting rid of Keuchel from the roster, too?

That doesn't even leave room for another Leury/reliever of the day move.

[Balta1701]

2 minutes ago, caulfield12 said:

In the meantime, all their options are evaporating by the hour while they sweat it out.

They are going with their current OF, I think they’re even trying to sell people on that.

[fathom]

1 minute ago, caulfield12 said:

In the meantime, all their options are evaporating by the hour while they sweat it out.

You’re assuming they care about options, and aren’t just being honest when they say the team is mostly set.

[caulfield12]

1 minute ago, HahnsKiddieTable said:

Don’t know if this was posted before or not but it says he turned down 9 figures a year ago 

Supposedly, the Mets were willing to go to $110-120.  Not sure how accurate that is.

[fathom]

Just now, caulfield12 said:

So they can reallocate that $11 million to what quality of starter?   Getting rid of Keuchel from the roster, too?

That doesn't even leave room for another Leury/reliever of the day move.

Who’s to say they aren’t already over the budget and need to unload Kimbrel to get back to what they set their payroll at?

[Chicago White Sox]

Just now, fathom said:

Not if they get a good prospect back 

There are other ways to buy prospects though.  My point is if the market doesn’t view Kimbrel as being worth at least $16M on a one year deal then you’re destroying value by picking up his option.  Now, if you’re saying there are teams who think he’s that valuable but simply can’t afford to fit his salary into their budget and are willing to give up a prospect in exchange for cash considerations then maybe you can still come out ahead.  But man, I hate the concept of picking up an option and basically being forced to eat some money to move said player.  Just seems too risky and bad process overall.

[Balta1701]

2 minutes ago, Chicago White Sox said:

There are other ways to buy prospects though.  My point is if the market doesn’t view Kimbrel as being worth at least $16M on a one year deal then you’re destroying value by picking up his option.  Now, if you’re saying there are teams who think he’s that valuable but simply can’t afford to fit his salary into their budget and are willing to give up a prospect in exchange for cash considerations then maybe you can still come out ahead.  But man, I hate the concept of picking up an option and basically being forced to eat some money to move said player.  Just seems too risky and bad process overall.

The White Sox didn’t buy prospects from other teams when they had plenty of space to work with. I express extreme skepticism that they will try to do so with a $180 million payroll.

[HOFHurt35]

9 minutes ago, caulfield12 said:

Supposedly, the Mets were willing to go to $110-120.  Not sure how accurate that is.

Before he sucked in 2021, which many folks are happily ignoring. 

Conforto was not a $100 million contract player in 2021.

Edited March 19, 2022 by HOFHurt35

[HOFHurt35]

8 minutes ago, fathom said:

Who’s to say they aren’t already over the budget and need to unload Kimbrel to get back to what they set their payroll at?

Please stop trying to make sense here .

[ron883]

2 minutes ago, HOFHurt35 said:

Before he sucked in 2021, which many folks are happily ignoring. 

Conforto was not a $100 million contract player in 2021.

His 2021 is why he isn't getting nine figures. Before that, he was a 3-4 WAR player for 4 years. I'll take the chance based on his track record. 

Edited March 19, 2022 by ron883

[Balta1701]

1 minute ago, ron883 said:

His 2021 is why he isn't getting nine figures. Before that, he was a 3-4 WAR player for 4 years. I'll take the chance based on his track record. 

We might. The white Sox won’t, seemingly. They bet everything on expensive veteran relievers.

[maxjusttyped]

12 minutes ago, fathom said:

Who’s to say they aren’t already over the budget and need to unload Kimbrel to get back to what they set their payroll at?

I don't think Jerry would have signed off any spending after the lockout ended if they were already over budget. The fact they spent 17M on new players (Kelly, Harrison, Velasquez) I think is a sign they aren't afraid of getting stuck with Kimbrel if that's what it comes down to.

[Balta1701]

Just now, maxjusttyped said:

I don't think Jerry would have signed off any spending after the lockout ended if they were already over budget. The fact they spent 17M on new players (Kelly, Harrison, Velasquez) I think is a sign they aren't afraid of getting stuck with Kimbrel if that's what it comes down to.

But if they have a $190 million limit, they are basically at that. Moving Kimbrel could be the space they think they need at the deadline - which means if they don’t get an offer that saves enough money, they could hold him and see how things evolve. Not moving him would mean less money at the deadline but nothing else major.

[maxjusttyped]

1 minute ago, Balta1701 said:

But if they have a $190 million limit, they are basically at that. Moving Kimbrel could be the space they think they need at the deadline - which means if they don’t get an offer that saves enough money, they could hold him and see how things evolve. Not moving him would mean less money at the deadline but nothing else major.

I think it's far, far more likely their issue at the trade deadline is not having prospects anyone wants (like last year, which is why they had to trade from the big league roster) rather than Reinsdorf not signing off on spending a few extra million bucks.

 

[Saufley]

25 minutes ago, ChiSox59 said:

Waiting is fine if they just sign Conforto. If Kimbrel deal has anything to do with ability to sign Conforto, waiting means you’re gonna miss out of him if you wait much longer. 

Do we really believe there is any hope for signing Conforto? Seems the FO is content with Vaughn/Sheets/Garcia/Engel manning RF this year.