Offseason Part 3 - Because Part 2 Was a Dud

[FoxForce2]

56 minutes ago, Two-Gun Pete said:

I have this crazy idea that 500 > 60, and 140 > 60.

In other words, an everyday player that can play in ~140 games/year in the field, + get you ~500 PA/yr is more valuable than a garden-variety 60 IP reliever.

I also believe that a 140 IP SP generally helps you win more than a 60 IP RP.

 

So simply from usage alone, everyday player needs > RPs. Also, SPs needs > RPs. If your club has ANY weaknesses in your everyday lineup or rotation, address them, FIRST.

Crazy idea, right? 

Pitching is specialized. Baseball is the only major sport where the defense initiates the play and the play starts with the pitcher. Obviously, other than catchers, the players in the field handle the ball far less than the pitchers.
How many innings of those 140 are going to be complete games? And that's only some 15 starts at that. And how frequently will that starter do that over the course of say 2 weeks? Back in the day... starters would go 250+ innings a year. Koufax went over 300 in 3 different season, leading the league in IP in 2 of those years. Can you imagine that occurring in today's game? At the same time the notion of the 'fireman' came to the forefront as the use of Dick Radatz cast a whole new angle on the use of RP; then came leverage guys like Gossage with specialized closers and loogies coming into the mix over time.
Other than knuckleballers, I can't imagine a pitcher riding one pitch into the HOF ala Rivera - and he earned every vote that he got. Sutter threw a lot of splitters but he didn't rely on it as much as Rivera did the cut.

Edited March 22, 2022 by FoxForce2

[KBX]

3 hours ago, michelangelosmonkey said:

I have written this often...but this is a false narrative about the bad farm system.   If you take the White Sox talent and put it in two camps 21-26 year olds and 21 and younger (or new to America)...we would be top five in each category.  If you can't get excited about Cespedes and Colas, Montgomery and Kath, Popeye and Ramos, Vera and the high school arms...they are not highly ranked farm because they all are young...but super talented and will begin arriving in two years...when we need them.   As for not giving out massive contracts....I said this two years ago often...when the Sox are good...in the 90, 00's and 10's we had a top five payroll and I said we would again...and I was mocked.  And here we are...and we will have a top five payroll for the next five years...we will hand out big contract to our stars like we did in the 90's 00's and 10's.  

I believe they will pay the guys who are really good bets. Others, no. The first example is Abreu. If he doesn't retire after this year, we may have two very affordable 1B/DH types in Vaughn and Sheets who approximate Abreu's historical production. I wouldn't expect him back if that happens. With Giolito, Moncada, TA etc, it will depend on the circumstances. This is not an org that regularly gives us nice presents in the winter months, but they're not fine with paying guys market rates when it makes sense and fits into the larger picture of things.

2 hours ago, Look at Ray Ray Run said:

I'm not sure how the Sox could make a huge move at the deadline unless a couple players in their system take huge steps forward. That's a gamble in its own sense.

I also think it's a bit of homer shaded glasses to say they have the best roster in the AL. They have the 4th most projected WAR in the league right now and by a couple outlets the 5th best projected record and they're in the weakest division. It doesn't mean they can't be the best team in the AL, but it does mean their on-paper roster isn't the best in the eyes of a lot of projection systems and models, so it'll take more "if's" for them to reach that ceiling compared to others.

Models have no ability to predict the maturation of young stars coming off injury-ridden years. As I've said before, we could have at least 5 major breakout years from certain guys and it wouldn't be the least bit surprising. No model is gonna predict 6.5 WAR from Robert, or 40 homers from Eloy, or CYA-vote-getting years from two of our starters. But again, it wouldn't be shocking for us. This just where we are as a franchise, which is good — it means a lot of potential for steep development curves and a lot of surplus value.

2 hours ago, CWSpalehoseCWS said:

Hahn should be fired. Yes, fired. Two first basemen and a DH with zero experience in RF on a team with championship expectations. Pitiful.

I don't necessarily disagree if assessing the situation in a vacuum, but I think it's obvious that he's operating in a way that ownership approves of. This is not an org that is committed to excellence. Winning, yes. Excellence, not really. And they are not 'cheap' tout court, but they clearly are in certain ways. The payroll is indeed high, but it's high due to short-term deals in low-competition markets. There's a cheapness there. I have said this org is cheap and have gotten corrected, but yet why on earth would we be wanting for a true RF for any other reason? It's nothing to harp on and shout from the rooftops, but there is a Sox way of doing things that has been consistently observed for as long as I've watched this team.

They are not committed to excellence per se, and that type of commitment is often fundamentally irrational on some level, or at least in certain ways. Given the same circumstances, it would be a Dodger or Yankee thing to sign Conforto, but it is an inefficient move from a dollar/WAR standpoint. Even with Conforto, we still need a lot of things to go right to win it all.  The most rational thing to do — which is not equivalent to saying 'the best thing to do' — is play the young guys who will approximate Conforto's output and save money over that time frame. This also leaves room for other needs forthcoming, which may be more urgent than RF. And I expect that they will address those needs in some way, either a 'very Sox-like' way or a more conventional way that pleases the crowd here. 

[Chicago White Sox]

17 minutes ago, Two-Gun Pete said:

Thank you for agreeing with me.

Leury provided as much fWAR as all but 10 RPs, 9 of whom were closers. So yes, the very specialized roles of closers can be as crucial as Robbie Gould hitting a last second kick.

But your garden variety RP < a cromulent everyday player, just as a PK < a cromulent NFL starter.

And yet the best relievers make 2.5x to 3x time what Leury makes.  WAR doesn’t account for context and treats all runs as being worth the same, which is 100% not the case and that’s reflective in what GMs pay for high leverage relievers.

[ptatc]

5 minutes ago, Balta1701 said:

So if this team needed to address its weaknesses, what’s the deal with the defense?

Agreed. I don't like it either. They obviously didn't have the resources to address all of them. That is going to be a weakness this year, however very few teams have no weaknesses. Even the almighty Dodgers with the highest payroll league has weaknesses.

[Flash]

10 minutes ago, KBX said:

Even with Conforto, we still need a lot of things to go right to win it all.  The most rational thing to do — which is not equivalent to saying 'the best thing to do' — is play the young guys who will approximate Conforto's output and save money over that time frame. This also leaves room for other needs forthcoming, which may be more urgent than RF. And I expect that they will address those needs in some way, either a 'very Sox-like' way or a more conventional way that pleases the crowd here. 

Yep.

[Balta1701]

9 minutes ago, ptatc said:

Agreed. I don't like it either. They obviously didn't have the resources to address all of them. That is going to be a weakness this year, however very few teams have no weaknesses. Even the almighty Dodgers with the highest payroll league has weaknesses.

Which are?

[ptatc]

5 minutes ago, Balta1701 said:

Which are?

Starting rotation seems to be the most glaring. They especially with health. Which again is on a team with probably at least 60 mil more to spend. 

Just glanced at the payroll. They are paying David Price 32 million and he pitched  73 innings last year.

Edited March 22, 2022 by ptatc

[Chicago White Sox]

People keep saying a Vaugh/Sheets/Engel/Leury combo in RF can replicate Conforto’s production, but dude was a ~4 win player prior to last season.  So either you guys are basing all go forward expectations on a down year or think we’re going to get some of the best RF production in all of baseball out of two unproven 1B and a guy made out of glass.

[Jack Parkman]

A question for the old timers- are Flash and Flash Tizzle the same guy? I always thought they were, until I saw the post count on Flash. 

[Flash]

2 minutes ago, Jack Parkman said:

A question for the old timers- are Flash and Flash Tizzle the same guy? I always thought they were, until I saw the post count on Flash. 

Flash here. No relation to Mr. Tizzle.

[maxjusttyped]

2 minutes ago, Chicago White Sox said:

People keep saying a Vaugh/Sheets/Engel/Leury combo in RF can replicate Conforto’s production, but dude was a ~4 win player prior to last season.  So either you guys are basing all go forward expectations on a down year or think we’re going to get some of the best RF production in all of baseball out of two unproven 1B and a guy made out of glass.

That's also expecting none of the players in the RF/LF/DH mix to get hurt, which isn't going to happen. Conforto doesn't just make the starting RF position stronger, he also would push Vaughn/Sheets/Engel further into depth roles which reduces the number of PA's we'll see from replacement level types such as Goodwin, Yermin, Jake Lamb, Billy Hamilton etc from last season.

[turnin' two]

11 minutes ago, Balta1701 said:

Which are?

Well they don't seem to have a closer.  And they have to run that bum Bellinger out there every day...

 

HEY I HAVE AN IDEA!!!!!!

[maxjusttyped]

9 minutes ago, ptatc said:

Starting rotation seems to be the most glaring. They especially with health. Which again is on a team with probably at least 60 mil more to spend. 

Just glanced at the payroll. They are paying David Price 32 million and he pitched  73 innings last year.

I would happily take an overpriced David Price on the Sox if it meant they would have traded for Mookie Betts 2 years ago, too.

[Balta1701]

7 minutes ago, ptatc said:

Starting rotation seems to be the most glaring. They especially with health. Which again is on a team with probably at least 60 mil more to spend. 

Just glanced at the payroll. They are paying David Price 32 million and he pitched  73 innings last year.

I do find it ironic that David Price produced better than Dallas Keuchel last year. Price also seems to be their 6th or 7th starter if I’m counting right? 

[Balta1701]

3 minutes ago, turnin' two said:

Well they don't seem to have a closer.  And they have to run that bum Bellinger out there every day...

 

HEY I HAVE AN IDEA!!!!!!

Treinen, Hudson, with Graterol as a setup man is a pretty solid start.

[turnin' two]

Just now, Balta1701 said:

Treinen, Hudson, with Graterol as a setup man is a pretty solid start.

 

[ptatc]

7 minutes ago, Balta1701 said:

I do find it ironic that David Price produced better than Dallas Keuchel last year. Price also seems to be their 6th or 7th starter if I’m counting right? 

I know he isn't a starter for them it was just an observation of paying a guy nearly 500,000 an inning. Not many teams can do that.

I think their starters would be 

Kershaw

Heaney

Anderson

Buehler

Uria

May

Some subset of that. doesn't look great with a 270 mil payroll. 90 mil more than the Sox. 

Their 3 highest paid pitchers are Bauer, Price and Kershaw. None of which may pitch this year. That's 100 million. 

Edited March 22, 2022 by ptatc

[Flash]

10 minutes ago, Chicago White Sox said:

People keep saying a Vaugh/Sheets/Engel/Leury combo in RF can replicate Conforto’s production, but dude was a ~4 win player prior to last season.  So either you guys are basing all go forward expectations on a down year or think we’re going to get some of the best RF production in all of baseball out of two unproven 1B and a guy made out of glass.

You might be right but aren't you the least bit concerned, at least 'til this point, no other team appears willing to pony up? 

[Chicago White Sox]

2 minutes ago, Flash said:

You might be right but aren't you the least bit concerned, at least 'til this point, no other team appears willing to pony up? 

I think the problem is twofold.  First, Boras wants to get paid based off of Conforto’s 2017 to 2020 performance when in reality every team will demand some sort of discount to offset the risk of his shitty 2021 season.  Second, the QO isn’t doing him any favors as rebuilding teams would probably rather wait another offseason to address their OF when they won’t lose a pick and precious bonus pool dollars.

[Two-Gun Pete]

1 hour ago, ptatc said:

But they do play as much. You are just looking at in a traditional sense. A hitter with a full season will at most have 600 plate appearances. If they average 4 pitches per plate appearance that 2400 pitches they effect in a season. A starting pitcher if the have 30 starts and average 100 pitches, have an effect on 3000 pitches in a season. 

So they may have a greater effect on more plays in a season. RPs obviously not as much but they have a greater impact as they  pitch in higher leverage situations more often.

Plus as I said good pitching beats good hitting more often than not.

You need to think out of the box more and not so traditionally.

Look, I respect you, and appreciate your expertise with respect to injury. And I understand your want to defend your position.

But you are now straining credulity with this view. The unit of measure for baseball is not the number of pitches thrown, its the PA. The former is a theoretically infinite and open-ended question, whereas baseball is measured in a theoretical minimum of 27 or 24 PAs long per game per team.

WAR attempts to solve for this, by incorporating run production and run avoidance. A pitcher, ANY pitcher participates solely in run avoidance. A position player participates in run avoidance (by means of defensive chances faced), AND run production by means of his PAs and his appearances on base.

You also glommed together "pitchers," be they RPs or SPs as a question of whether or not RH should have gotten one or the other.

Its not that I disagree with your position, it's just that you (and more importantly, RH) are wrong on this. SPs > RPs. Everyday players > RPs. The numbers do not lie.

Edited March 22, 2022 by Two-Gun Pete

[Two-Gun Pete]

51 minutes ago, FoxForce2 said:

Pitching is specialized. Baseball is the only major sport where the defense initiates the play and the play starts with the pitcher. Obviously, other than catchers, the players in the field handle the ball far less than the pitchers.
How many innings of those 140 are going to be complete games? And that's only some 15 starts at that. And how frequently will that starter do that over the course of say 2 weeks? Back in the day... starters would go 250+ innings a year. Koufax went over 300 in 3 different season, leading the league in IP in 2 of those years. Can you imagine that occurring in today's game? At the same time the notion of the 'fireman' came to the forefront as the use of Dick Radatz cast a whole new angle on the use of RP; then came leverage guys like Gossage with specialized closers and loogies coming into the mix over time.
Other than knuckleballers, I can't imagine a pitcher riding one pitch into the HOF ala Rivera - and he earned every vote that he got. Sutter threw a lot of splitters but he didn't rely on it as much as Rivera did the cut.

So, will you argue that RPs > SPs, and/or that RPs > everyday players?

[caulfield12]

52 minutes ago, FoxForce2 said:

Pitching is specialized. Baseball is the only major sport where the defense initiates the play and the play starts with the pitcher. Obviously, other than catchers, the players in the field handle the ball far less than the pitchers.
How many innings of those 140 are going to be complete games? And that's only some 15 starts at that. And how frequently will that starter do that over the course of say 2 weeks? Back in the day... starters would go 250+ innings a year. Koufax went over 300 in 3 different season, leading the league in IP in 2 of those years. Can you imagine that occurring in today's game? At the same time the notion of the 'fireman' came to the forefront as the use of Dick Radatz cast a whole new angle on the use of RP; then came leverage guys like Gossage with specialized closers and loogies coming into the mix over time.
Other than knuckleballers, I can't imagine a pitcher riding one pitch into the HOF ala Rivera - and he earned every vote that he got. Sutter threw a lot of splitters but he didn't rely on it as much as Rivera did the cut.

Niekros with knuckleball, Hoyt Wilhelm...Bruce Sutter split

[Two-Gun Pete]

49 minutes ago, Chicago White Sox said:

And yet the best relievers make 2.5x to 3x time what Leury makes.  WAR doesn’t account for context and treats all runs as being worth the same, which is 100% not the case and that’s reflective in what GMs pay for high leverage relievers.

Because there are many more Leury Garcia-level position players than cromulent RPs, their wages are also a product of their commonality. As we all agree, there are fewer humans who can throw well enough to be a MLB RP.

But, that a RP in less involved in the outcome of games over the course of a season is why they produce less WAR. Its also why it was absolutely wrong to not replace Adam Eaton/add a RP at the TDL, and why it was a fireable offense for RH to fail to address the RF position.

 

[caulfield12]

18 minutes ago, ptatc said:

I know he isn't a starter for them it was just an observation of paying a guy nearly 500,000 an inning. Not many teams can do that.

I think their starters would be 

Kershaw

Heaney

Anderson

Buehler

Uria

May

Some subset of that. doesn't look great with a 270 mil payroll. 90 mil more than the Sox. 

Their 3 highest paid pitchers are Bauer, Price and Kershaw. None of which may pitch this year. That's 100 million. 

Urias and Buehrle are their two best now.  May could be the best if he returns to health.  Plus Gonsolin, Duffy and Price.  They will be fine.  SF and SD are taking a step back in all likelihood as well.

[caulfield12]

Just now, Two-Gun Pete said:

Because there are many more Leury Garcia-level position players than cromulent RPs, their wages are also a product of their commonality. As we all agree, there are fewer humans who can throw well enough to be a MLB RP.

But, that a RP in less involved in the outcome of games over the course of a season is why they produce less WAR. Its also why it was absolutely wrong to not replace Adam Eaton/add a RP at the TDL, and why it was a fireable offense for RH to fail to address the RF position.

 

Hahn has enough fire able offenses to last a lifetime...fortunate JR is more forgiving with front office execs and former players than managers.