Offseason Part 3 - Because Part 2 Was a Dud

[ptatc]

1 minute ago, Two-Gun Pete said:

Thank you for agreeing with me. Player usage, and the concomitant % of player involvement in a game is not the # of pitches thrown.

It is the PA, and the impact a player has on the outcome of a PA that leads to the overall outcome of a game.

Because position players have so much more involvement than RPs, it was foolish to prioritize RPs over position players, full stop.

I would disagree. The more pitches thrown the greater the importance of the pitcher. A hitter is only going to impact the game for 4-5 PAs and may not be in high leverage situations. The pitchers are going to be out there involved in every pitch of every game regardless of the PAs.

I don't see anyway what I said agrees with you.

[caulfield12]

Just now, Jack Parkman said:

hahahahahahahahaha

WBWF?

[Two-Gun Pete]

Just now, ptatc said:

I don't think anyone wants this. Its just a matter of where you think the team has it's greatest weakness. You think it's the lineup. I think its the pitching.

Usage alone dictates that SPs > RPs, and position players > RPs.

That there were bigger holes in the rotation and lineup, as well as more injury risk than in the pen should have made clear what the priorities should be. After all, the "prudent man" principle, and common sense so dictates this.

[ptatc]

2 minutes ago, Two-Gun Pete said:

You can search for that on fangraphs yourself, but yes, they've refined their formulai over the years. 

Over the years but not yearly. The way they determine the replacement level number doesn't keep up with the players performance and is another inherent weakness in the stat.

[Two-Gun Pete]

3 minutes ago, ptatc said:

I would disagree. The more pitches thrown the greater the importance of the pitcher. A hitter is only going to impact the game for 4-5 PAs and may not be in high leverage situations. The pitchers are going to be out there involved in every pitch of every game regardless of the PAs.

I don't see anyway what I said agrees with you.

So you believe that a walk machine like ReyLo is more valuable than an efficient Mark Buehrle?

(Hint: are games measured by "pitches thrown," or are they measured by "PAs" or "outs?")

Edited March 22, 2022 by Two-Gun Pete

[Two-Gun Pete]

Just now, ptatc said:

Over the years but not yearly. The way they determine the replacement level number doesn't keep up with the players performance and is another inherent weakness in the stat.

And, you may research that, and report back findings. It would be helpful.

[ptatc]

1 minute ago, Two-Gun Pete said:

Usage alone dictates that SPs > RPs, and position players > RPs.

That there were bigger holes in the rotation and lineup, as well as more injury risk than in the pen should have made clear what the priorities should be. After all, the "prudent man" principle, and common sense so dictates this.

I don't disagree that the hole in the rotation was important. However, that gets back to the cost of acquiring that starter. If there are 3 openings in the pen, is that more efficient to fix than one starter. Can they cobble together enough performance for a 5th starter easier than finding 3 in house effective bullpen guys.

[Flash]

25 minutes ago, Chicago White Sox said:

I think the problem is twofold.  First, Boras wants to get paid based off of Conforto’s 2017 to 2020 performance when in reality every team will demand some sort of discount to offset the risk of his shitty 2021 season.  Second, the QO isn’t doing him any favors as rebuilding teams would probably rather wait another offseason to address their OF when they won’t lose a pick and precious bonus pool dollars.

Whatever Boras' motives might be, it would appear Hahn is among the vast majority of GMs who have concluded Comforto is not worth the ask. You are correct about the polarizing nature of his '21 season which cannot be ignored, and to this point, it appears other teams are making allowances for a possible trend and overweighting it in their analysis. Guessing the drama will play itself out tomorrow or Wed. I'd love to get him at 3years/$18-20M AAV. I'd revert to the combo platter if Boras wants much more.   

[ptatc]

3 minutes ago, Two-Gun Pete said:

So you believe that a walk machine like ReyLo is more valuable than an efficient Mark Buehrle?

I didn't say valuable. I said the importance of the pitchers increases. Because the pitchers now need to come in for higher leverage siutations and they can have a greater effect on the game. The effect the game more because they are involved in more plays. Why is the QB the most important position in football? He effects every play. The more pitches throw the more effect the pitcher has on the game. Hence SP>RP

[caulfield12]

Just now, Flash said:

Whatever Boras' motives might be, it would appear Hahn is among the vast majority of GMs who have concluded Comforto is not worth the ask. You are correct about the polarizing nature of his '21 season which cannot be ignored, and to this point, it appears other teams are making allowances for a possible trend and overweighting it in their analysis. Guessing the drama will play itself out tomorrow or Wed. I'd love to get him at 3years/$18-20M AAV. I'd revert to the combo platter if Boras wants much more.   

Couldn't you make the exact same argument about why nobody seems Kimbrel as being worth $16 million, either?  Yes, totally different contracts, but it all comes down to value and opportunity cost.

[Two-Gun Pete]

2 minutes ago, ptatc said:

I didn't say valuable. I said the importance of the pitchers increases. Because the pitchers now need to come in for higher leverage siutations and they can have a greater effect on the game. The effect the game more because they are involved in more plays. Why is the QB the most important position in football? He effects every play. The more pitches throw the more effect the pitcher has on the game. Hence SP>RP

Oh, I'm sorry. Ill rephrase:

So you believe that a walk machine like Reylo is more important than an efficient Mark Buerhle?

(Hint: Are games measured by "pitches thrown," or are the measured by "PAs" or "outs?")

Edited March 22, 2022 by Two-Gun Pete

[ptatc]

4 minutes ago, Two-Gun Pete said:

And, you may research that, and report back findings. It would be helpful.

This is my point. I don't agree that is can be accurately measure. Hence the reason that if you only quote WAR and only look at WAR you aren't getting the whole picture. You are leaving out important information.

All stats can be used but none of them give you everything. 

[caulfield12]

3 minutes ago, ptatc said:

I didn't say valuable. I said the importance of the pitchers increases. Because the pitchers now need to come in for higher leverage siutations and they can have a greater effect on the game. The effect the game more because they are involved in more plays. Why is the QB the most important position in football? He effects every play. The more pitches throw the more effect the pitcher has on the game. Hence SP>RP

By that argument, we REALLY need more high strikeout pitchers to eliminate our defense from coming into play as much as possible...if they are bound and determined to put a below average fielding team out there all season long.

(Only course, the opposite style pitcher, Tepera, was our best in the postseason.)

Edited March 22, 2022 by caulfield12

[ptatc]

Just now, Two-Gun Pete said:

Oh, I'm sorry. Ill rephrase:

So you believe that a walk machine like Reylo is more important than an efficient Mark Buerhle?

(Hint: Are games measured by "pitches thrown," or are the measured by "PAs" or "outs?")

Not more important has a greater effect on the game. 

But you are missing the point. and discussing a totally discussing the wrong topic It is the difference between the effect of a hitter vs. the pitcher not pitcher vs. pitcher. By trying to figure out which pitcher has a greater effect you are indirectly proving my point that the pitcher effects the game more than the hitter, good or bad.

[ptatc]

3 minutes ago, caulfield12 said:

By that argument, we REALLY need more high strikeout pitchers to eliminate our defense from coming into play as much as possible...if they are bound and determined to put a below average fielding team out there all season long.

(Only course, the opposite style pitcher, Tepera, was our best in the postseason.)

This is correct. If you have a bad infield defense you should try to have more strikeout pitchers. I don't think the Sox have too bad of an infield defense. Moncada, TA and Abreu are pretty good. I haven't watched Harrison enough to judge that yet. The OF defense though is going to be rough.

[Two-Gun Pete]

16 minutes ago, ptatc said:

This is my point. I don't agree that is can be accurately measure. Hence the reason that if you only quote WAR and only look at WAR you aren't getting the whole picture. You are leaving out important information.

All stats can be used but none of them give you everything. 

Sure. And you claim that position players are only involved in 4-5 PAs/game. What about the rest of their games? We'll turn back to that valued member of the White Sox, Leury Garcia:

In 2021, in addition to his 454 PAs on offense, he also had 189 put outs, and 120 assists. IOW, he contributed 103 IP out-equivalents in outs recorded. He also appeared on base 147 times, hit 5 HR, and stole 6 bases.

IOW, while his numbers may be middling in isolation, he contributed offensively and defensively. A RP can only contribute in run prevention, unless your manager stupidly doesn't know the rules of the game, and puts the expensive closer on to run in the 10th inning.

Edited March 22, 2022 by Two-Gun Pete
Corrected the arithmetic. I regret the error.

[caulfield12]

5 minutes ago, ptatc said:

This is correct. If you have a bad infield defense you should try to have more strikeout pitchers. I don't think the Sox have too bad of an infield defense. Moncada, TA and Abreu are pretty good. I haven't watched Harrison enough to judge that yet. The OF defense though is going to be rough.

Therein lies the problem....sinker-ballers, pitch to contact guys favor plus infield defense (and Harrison is going to be below average, around Madrigal last two years) and strikeout guys usually yield a lot of fly balls as well by elevating pitches up in the zone.   A conundrum.

Hard to take advantage of both, because those same strikeout guys like Cease and Rodon pitched well elevated pitch counts, which usually led to early bullpen usage.

[Two-Gun Pete]

12 minutes ago, ptatc said:

Not more important has a greater effect on the game. 

But you are missing the point. and discussing a totally discussing the wrong topic It is the difference between the effect of a hitter vs. the pitcher not pitcher vs. pitcher. By trying to figure out which pitcher has a greater effect you are indirectly proving my point that the pitcher effects the game more than the hitter, good or bad.

Wait, you just posted that the more pitches a pitcher throws, the more important he is. And wouldn't a player that can contribute both offensively and defensively have "a greater effect on the game" than one who only contributes in run prevention at only 1 IP/game?

 

Look, no offense, but your (and RH's) position that RPs > SPs or position players is flat-out wrong. By extension, it was wrong to prioritize the least of our issues and the least impactful part of the game. Your defense of this strategy is impressive, but is ill-placed.

Edited March 22, 2022 by Two-Gun Pete

[ptatc]

1 minute ago, Two-Gun Pete said:

Sure. And you claim that position players are only involved in 4-5 PAs/game. What about the rest of their games? We'll turn back to that valued member of the White Sox, Leury Garcia:

In addition to his 454 PAs on offense, he also had 189 put outs, and 120 assists. IOW, he contributed 202.1 IP out-equivalents in outs recorded. He also appeared on base 147 times, hit HR, and stole 6 bases.

IOW, while his numbers may be middling, he contributed offensively and defensively. A RP can only contribute in run prevention, unless your manager stupidly doesn't know the rules of the game, and puts the expensive closer on to run in the 10th inning.

Hitter do contribute offensively and defensively. The pitchers also contribute defensively with put outs and assists, admittedly at a lower rate. If you only include RP and only look at counting stats it will be inherently biased towards the player, again a weakness in counting stats.  How many of those PAs were in high leverage situations? How important is the out for the RP when there is a runner in scoring position and he needs to get 2 outs. The counting stats can't measure the importance of plays.

 

[maloney.adam]

Hello Hahn are you there?

[ptatc]

6 minutes ago, caulfield12 said:

Therein lies the problem....sinker-ballers, pitch to contact guys favor plus infield defense (and Harrison is going to be below average, around Madrigal last two years) and strikeout guys usually yield a lot of fly balls as well by elevating pitches up in the zone.   A conundrum.

Hard to take advantage of both, because those same strikeout guys like Cease and Rodon pitched well elevated pitch counts, which usually led to early bullpen usage.

True. Roster construction is more than just "get the best player" when they already have most of the team completed with good players.

[Two-Gun Pete]

5 minutes ago, ptatc said:

Hitter do contribute offensively and defensively. The pitchers also contribute defensively with put outs and assists, admittedly at a lower rate. If you only include RP and only look at counting stats it will be inherently biased towards the player, again a weakness in counting stats.  How many of those PAs were in high leverage situations? How important is the out for the RP when there is a runner in scoring position and he needs to get 2 outs. The counting stats can't measure the importance of plays.

 

Thank you for agreeing with me.

And I agree with you:

Counting stats do favor the players with greater useage. That means that everyday players > RPs, and SPs > RPs.

Also, WAR corrects for leverage, and gives "extra credit" to RPs to account for leverage. Despite this "extra credit," Leury Garcia produced more WAR than all but 10 RPs. Again, this means that everyday players > RPs.

Which meant that the RFer is/was more important to the White Sox than yet another aging, expensive 1 IP-type guy.

Edited March 22, 2022 by Two-Gun Pete

[ptatc]

7 minutes ago, Two-Gun Pete said:

Wait, you just posted that the more pitches a pitcher throws, the more important he is. And wouldn't a player that can contribute both offensively and defensively have "a greater effect on the game" than one who only contributes in run prevention at only 1 IP/game?

 

Look, no offense, but your (and RH's) position that RPs > SPs or position players is flat-out wrong. By extension, it was wrong to prioritize the least of our issues and the least impactful part of the game. Your defense of this strategy is impressive, but is ill-placed.

I never said RP>SP. In fact it's the opposite. My stance has been that with the current lineup and the current pitching staff prior to any acquisitions, the pitching staff was the greater need. That's it. With the limited resources they had with being close to the tax, they needed to focus on pitching not a RF. I don't like having Vaughn/Sheets/Engel foe RF but it is the lesser of the evils.

[Leonard Zelig]

1 minute ago, Two-Gun Pete said:

Thank you for agreeing with me.

And I agree with you:

Counting stats do favor the players with greater useage. That means that everyday players > RPs, and SPs > RPs.

Is this your new schtick?  It’s already gotten old. 

[Two-Gun Pete]

Just now, Leonard Zelig said:

Is this your new schtick?  It’s already gotten old. 

I'm trying to give ptatc the benefit of a fair reply to his query.