fathom Posted March 22, 2022 Share Posted March 22, 2022 7 minutes ago, ChiliIrishHammock24 said: Robert Murray says the Dodgers might be looking to shed payroll to add a closer. That would accomplish both things, while getting the Sox a right fielder, albeit Pollock has only played CF and LF. But even though Pollock isn't a RF, neither is Vaughn or Sheets, so that's already an upgrade no matter what. I don’t think they have any interest in a righty bat Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
maxjusttyped Posted March 22, 2022 Share Posted March 22, 2022 9 minutes ago, fathom said: I don’t think they have any interest in a righty bat I think Pollock is a much more valuable player than Kimbrel at this point. I'm not saying you're wrong, but passing on trading for him because he isn't left handed would be a huge mistake imo 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
caulfield12 Posted March 22, 2022 Share Posted March 22, 2022 https://www.fangraphs.com/players/aj-pollock/9256/stats?position=OF Definitely a consistent 2-3 fWAR performer, WHEN healthy. 34 years old (warning label attached), $10 million plus $10 million player option for next year ($5 million buyout, not sure how that would work, but it would be roughly an even salary swap). From the information, if he had 600 plate appearances, his 2023 contract would be $15 million, so possible $25 million outlay for two years, lowest would be $15 million. 2023 Option escalates $1M each for 400,450,500,550,600 Plate Appearances in 2022 https://www.spotrac.com/mlb/los-angeles-dodgers/aj-pollock-10693/ The next point is it would leave Vaughn/Sheets as the DH platoon, with Vaughn only getting 30-40% of the at-bats. Not addressing the left-handed hitting issue, as Pollock hits RH. Defense has been trending negative for three years in a row...from positive the first seven years of his career, peaking at age 27 in 2015. Don't love it...because it means we likely send Vaughn down to hit everyday, trade Sheets (or even more RHed if they trade Sheets/Burger instead for pitching) or weak-side platoon Vaughn (only 30-40% of at-bats avail). Pollock at his age and with his declining defense seems to be not worth the upside, because you're unlikely to get a repeat 30's "peak" year out of him again as he nears his mid 30's. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SoCalChiSox Posted March 22, 2022 Share Posted March 22, 2022 Righty bat + player option= Its not Pollock Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
fathom Posted March 22, 2022 Share Posted March 22, 2022 I get the sense this would be a 3-team trade with Kimbrel going to a team in the NL: Dodgers, Mets, Padres or Phillies. Mets are looking for relief help, Padres looking for offense and Phillies for a CF and bullpen help. My prediction is Sox try to get prospects out of the deal to send to Oakland to try and get Manaea. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
YouCanPutItOnTheBoardYES! Posted March 22, 2022 Share Posted March 22, 2022 Isn’t Pollock always hurt anyway? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
caulfield12 Posted March 22, 2022 Share Posted March 22, 2022 Bigger point is you could have had the younger Joc Pederson for $6.5-7.0 million, now we would taking on a $15-25 million two year commitment (see escalator clause above)...while simultaneously limiting Vaughn's ability to come into his own as a hitter (we need YOUNG/CHEAPER/GOOD players!!!), seems we keep making this team older and older by the month. You also could end up blocking Colas and Cespedes in 2023, although that's not the primary issue here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SoCalChiSox Posted March 22, 2022 Share Posted March 22, 2022 Just now, fathom said: I get the sense this would be a 3-team trade with Kimbrel going to a team in the NL: Dodgers, Mets, Padres or Phillies. Mets are looking for relief help, Padres looking for offense and Phillies for a CF and bullpen help. My prediction is Sox try to get prospects out of the deal to send to Oakland to try and get Manaea. How does this address LH RF? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
maxjusttyped Posted March 22, 2022 Share Posted March 22, 2022 (edited) 1 minute ago, YouCanPutItOnTheBoardYES! said: Isn’t Pollock always hurt anyway? Yes but he still manages to be a very productive player anyways. I will gladly take the guy coming off a 3 WAR season + 137 wRC+ even if he isn't the cleanest fit for the roster as things stand right now. Edited March 22, 2022 by maxjusttyped Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SoCalChiSox Posted March 22, 2022 Share Posted March 22, 2022 1 minute ago, caulfield12 said: Bigger point is you could have had the younger Joc Pederson for $6.5-7.0 million, now we would taking on a $15-25 million two year commitment (see escalator clause above)...while simultaneously limiting Vaughn's ability to come into his own as a hitter (we need YOUNG/CHEAPER/GOOD players!!!), seems we keep making this team older and older by the month. You also could end up blocking Colas and Cespedes in 2023, although that's not the primary issue here. Yeah I'd rather have Joc as a bandaid than get roped into an aging RHH who will further limit our financial flexibility in 23 with his player option. I'd rather give Kimbrel away for free than get that in return. Hell no. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
fathom Posted March 22, 2022 Share Posted March 22, 2022 5 minutes ago, SoCalChiSox said: How does this address LH RF? Seems obvious to me Vaughn is your full time RF. Sheets will DH against RHP. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SoCalChiSox Posted March 22, 2022 Share Posted March 22, 2022 Just now, fathom said: Seems obvious to me Vaughn is your full time RF. Sheets will DH against RHP. Thats an awful result. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
caulfield12 Posted March 22, 2022 Share Posted March 22, 2022 (edited) 14 minutes ago, fathom said: I get the sense this would be a 3-team trade with Kimbrel going to a team in the NL: Dodgers, Mets, Padres or Phillies. Mets are looking for relief help, Padres looking for offense and Phillies for a CF and bullpen help. My prediction is Sox try to get prospects out of the deal to send to Oakland to try and get Manaea. Gore and Abrams aren't going to be it, so that leaves Campusano, Hassell, James Wood (Rookie Ball). Wood, maybe? What offensive player would the Padres take from the Phillies? Just not seeing it. Haseley or O.Herrera aren't going to get anyone excited in SD. Same with Didi Gregorious. Those would all be downgrades, except if Didi could play SS (instead of Kim), but then they've also got Tatis and Abrams and Cronenworth up the middle. The White Sox nor the Padres (Grisham) have a CFer to spare, unless it's Engel/Leury (that doesn't move the bar, either). This trade is already getting WAY too complicated and there are simply too many moving parts...and the Mets should have simply signed one of the relievers that we bought (or had previously) on the open market, like Kelly/Graveman/Tepera/Velasquez, etc. Edited March 22, 2022 by caulfield12 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
maxjusttyped Posted March 22, 2022 Share Posted March 22, 2022 Just now, fathom said: Seems obvious to me Vaughn is your full time RF. Sheets will DH against RHP. I'm sure all of Eloy, Vaughn, Sheets, and Abreu will stay healthy and productive the entire season. Good thing absolutely nothing was learned from all of the position player injuries last season. Engel has like 200 PA's worth of being a good hitter and he's coming off labrum surgery over the off-season. I want a LH option to play RF too, but at this point just adding a good player regardless of whether it's RH or LH should be essential. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
caulfield12 Posted March 22, 2022 Share Posted March 22, 2022 There's another obvious question for the Dodgers trade...who would they start in the OF with Pollock traded? Beaty or Lux? They just traded one of their spare outfielders the other day, pretty sure. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chw42 Posted March 22, 2022 Share Posted March 22, 2022 12 minutes ago, SoCalChiSox said: How does this address LH RF? Pollock had reverse splits last year and he's more or less been split neutral in his career. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chw42 Posted March 22, 2022 Share Posted March 22, 2022 Just now, caulfield12 said: There's another obvious question for the Dodgers trade...who would they start in the OF with Pollock traded? Beaty or Lux? They just traded one of their spare outfielders the other day, pretty sure. Yeah I don't see why they'd trade Pollock. It's not like they have a ton of OF depth to begin with. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ChiliIrishHammock24 Posted March 22, 2022 Share Posted March 22, 2022 11 minutes ago, SoCalChiSox said: Yeah I'd rather have Joc as a bandaid than get roped into an aging RHH who will further limit our financial flexibility in 23 with his player option. I'd rather give Kimbrel away for free than get that in return. Hell no. Not only is that an insane take, but also if Pollock has a $10M player option for 2023, or a $5M buyout, he would only be exercising that option if he doesn't think he can make more than $5M in 2023 as a free agent, since taking the opt out gets him $5M of that potential $10M contract in 2023. Sure, there is a chance he could become a $20M commitment for 2 years, but I think the odds are a lot, lot higher he's a 1 yr/$15M deal, which would obviously be offset by the 1 yr/$16M deal Kimbrel has, so he wouldn't be limiting any financial flexibility whatsoever. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ChiliIrishHammock24 Posted March 22, 2022 Share Posted March 22, 2022 9 minutes ago, caulfield12 said: There's another obvious question for the Dodgers trade...who would they start in the OF with Pollock traded? Beaty or Lux? They just traded one of their spare outfielders the other day, pretty sure. Chris Taylor would play LF. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Sacamano Posted March 22, 2022 Share Posted March 22, 2022 10 minutes ago, chw42 said: Yeah I don't see why they'd trade Pollock. It's not like they have a ton of OF depth to begin with. Not for just Kimbrel anyway. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chw42 Posted March 22, 2022 Share Posted March 22, 2022 1 minute ago, ChiliIrishHammock24 said: Chris Taylor would play LF. Roster Resource has Taylor playing 2B with Muncy DHing. I think they'll rotate the DH spot quite a bit. You can argue that they'd maybe platoon at 2B with Lux/Taylor and have Taylor also play LF. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ChiliIrishHammock24 Posted March 22, 2022 Share Posted March 22, 2022 10 minutes ago, chw42 said: Yeah I don't see why they'd trade Pollock. It's not like they have a ton of OF depth to begin with. Sure they do. Their 4th OF (Chris Taylor) is better than our 3rd OF. He's a 3 WAR bench player for them right now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chw42 Posted March 22, 2022 Share Posted March 22, 2022 1 minute ago, Bob Sacamano said: Not for just Kimbrel anyway. Let's assume that Kimbrel has 0 surplus value. Pollock is owed at least $15 million guaranteed for this next year (cause you're gonna at least have to buy him out of the option next year for $5 million). He's projected to be a ~2 WAR player. That has a value of $16 million at $8 million/WAR. That'd put Pollock as a $1 million surplus player. From a surplus value standpoint, I don't think the 2 are that far apart. I just don't know why the Dodgers would trade away their starting LFer. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ChiliIrishHammock24 Posted March 22, 2022 Share Posted March 22, 2022 (edited) 4 minutes ago, chw42 said: Roster Resource has Taylor playing 2B with Muncy DHing. I think they'll rotate the DH spot quite a bit. You can argue that they'd maybe platoon at 2B with Lux/Taylor and have Taylor also play LF. Ah, honestly forgot they have a DH spot now. I was thinking Muncy was their 2B. Yea I mean they could still use Lux at 2B and DH Muncy. I'm just trying to fit together puzzle pieces based on Robert Murray saying the Dodgers are trying to shed payroll to get a closer and if the Sox aren't going to get Conforto, then getting back an OF in a trade of Kimbrel would make sense. In the middle of the podcast he got a text hearing Pollock was scratched from today's ST game and he immediately assumed it was a Pollock for Kimbrel deal and was getting ready to break the news, that's why I asked what the opinions would be if it happened. Obviously turned out to be a false alarm. Edited March 22, 2022 by ChiliIrishHammock24 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Sacamano Posted March 22, 2022 Share Posted March 22, 2022 4 minutes ago, ChiliIrishHammock24 said: Sure they do. Their 4th OF (Chris Taylor) is better than our 3rd OF. He's a 3 WAR bench player for them right now. Taylor is at 2B (probably in OF against lefties if they platoon Bellinger with an infielder). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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