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Offseason Part 3 - Because Part 2 Was a Dud


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16 minutes ago, maxjusttyped said:

Gio might turn it down, but add another ~1.5M to the AAV each year and send it to Lucas' agent

They're still NOT going to do it, with that club option there...what about adding a signing bonus like Berrios at the beginning ($5-7.5 million) to sweeten the deal?

Giolito's basically 27 1/2, and has 11.2 fWAR the last three years combined (obviously 2020 brings the average down).

So he would be 32 1/2 hitting Free Agency again.

 

Berrios is almost exactly the same age, 27 1/2, and would hit his free agency at 34 1/2.

9.6 fWAR vs Giolito's 11.2 in comparison, so that's not insignificant.  You could go back ONE more year in Berrios' history, then it's 8.6 fWAR vs. Giolito's 11.2.

 

Just can't imagine that Lucas is going to be able to ignore that club option/control issue, the fact that he's seemingly back in form throwing harder than in 2021 and also quite peeved about the arbitration situation and then having the offer he supposedly turned down leaked online.   None of that's going to sit well with him and his family.

 

Balta, are you seeing anything differently which would make you believe an extension is still realistic/possible/feasible...or has the bridge already been crossed and burned behind him?

I guess if they won a World Series, and then rewarded Gio in a similar way to the Strasburg deal, but that still doesn't sound like JR...especially for a pitcher and looking what happened with that specific example.

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55 minutes ago, maxjusttyped said:

Gio might turn it down, but add another ~1.5M to the AAV each year and send it to Lucas' agent

Gio isn't getting re-signed because it's Jerry and Gio is a pitcher. 

The one time he went long-term on a pitcher at Gio's age(IIRC Danks was 27 when he re-signed) he got burned. He didn't do it before Danks and he won't do it again. 

We have to hope Cease and Kopech are very good this year so they feel comfortable trading Gio and signing a couple pitchers to fill out the rotation next year. They should not lose Gio for nothing. 

I hate this because Giolito is my favorite player on the Sox. 

 

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1 hour ago, Jack Parkman said:

That's a damn good question,  but look at Wheeler's last two years. Damn it sucks his wife wanted to stay on the East Coast. 

I think it's proof Jerry is willing to pay up for certain pitchers. And it's like not like Wheeler's track record before he hit free agency was spotless. He missed 2 full years due to TJS & complications while trying to recover. Lucas has been better and has a much less concerning injury history than Wheeler did at the time of his free agency. If they were willing to guarantee him ~130M then not being willing to go slightly above that for a better & home grown pitcher during your own championship window wouldn't make a lot of sense to me.

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34 minutes ago, Jack Parkman said:

They never trade for Lynn in that situation, rather keep Dunning or use him for a RF or LHP. 

Can't complain about the Lynn trade, but being able to use Dunning to fill a need elsewhere on the roster would have been great. Maybe it ends up being Dunning & Walker + for Gallo instead of Lynn. It seems like the Sox & Rangers like making trades with each other.

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13 minutes ago, maxjusttyped said:

I think it's proof Jerry is willing to pay up for certain pitchers. And it's like not like Wheeler's track record before he hit free agency was spotless. He missed 2 full years due to TJS & complications while trying to recover. Lucas has been better and has a much less concerning injury history than Wheeler did at the time of his free agency. If they were willing to guarantee him ~130M then not being willing to go slightly above that for a better & home grown pitcher during your own championship window wouldn't make a lot of sense to me.

Unless you buy into bad blood about player rep duties, arbitration hearing fight over pennies after turning down a team-friendly extension.  That he's essentially being punished or however you want to put it.  Which all sounds incredibly petty, but there's massive difference between that rumored extension and what Berrios actually ended up with the Blue Jays making him feel wanted after being pushed aside for Buxton's own team-friendly deal in Minny.

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14 minutes ago, maxjusttyped said:

Can't complain about the Lynn trade, but being able to use Dunning to fill a need elsewhere on the roster would have been great. Maybe it ends up being Dunning & Walker + for Gallo instead of Lynn. It seems like the Sox & Rangers like making trades with each other.

Leury/Rios got the ball rolling.  The infamous Nate Jones for intl bonus pool money, etc.

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Alright, I’m all-in on Conforto once again after that Merkin tweet.  Here is the plan Rick:

  • Trade Kimbrel & $5M to the Phillies for Marchan & Y. Garcia
  • Sign Conforto to a 4/$76M deal with opt-outs after years 2 & 3
  • Trade Burger, Dalquist, Adolfo, & Y. Garcia to the A’s for Manaea

Stop fucking around and make this happen Rick!  Time to win a god damn World Series!

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19 minutes ago, Chicago White Sox said:

Alright, I’m all-in on Conforto once again after that Merkin tweet.  Here is the plan Rick:

  • Trade Kimbrel & $5M to the Phillies for Marchan & Y. Garcia
  • Sign Conforto to a 4/$76M deal with opt-outs after years 2 & 3
  • Trade Burger, Dalquist, Adolfo, & Y. Garcia to the A’s for Manaea

Stop fucking around and make this happen Rick!  Time to win a god damn World Series!

You’re inevitably going to be disappointed.   And a lot of teams are going to want a second or third look at Kimbrel.  The question marks keep mounting.

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38 minutes ago, Chicago White Sox said:

Don’t understand this take…they traded for Lynn with Keuchel coming off a 1.99 ERA season.

I kinda get that one based on money. Coming off 2020 they clearly needed 1 more starter and depth. They then passed on more expensive pitching options for Rodon last offseason as well, Lynn would have been useful for them still but they had to leave money available so that they could beat the market on Adam Eaton. Wheeler, Keuchel, Cease, Gio, and Rodon/Kopech/Lopez/Dunning would have been the 2021 setup.

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6 minutes ago, Balta1701 said:

I kinda get that one based on money. Coming off 2020 they clearly needed 1 more starter and depth. They then passed on more expensive pitching options for Rodon last offseason as well, Lynn would have been useful for them still but they had to leave money available so that they could beat the market on Adam Eaton. Wheeler, Keuchel, Cease, Gio, and Rodon/Kopech/Lopez would have been the 2021 setup.

Wheeler made $4M or $5M more than Keuchel.  I think they would have found a way to fit both him and Lynn in the budget.  

EDIT:  And it seems like you’re missing the point, in a hypothetical scenario with Wheeler, Keuchel is not around.  So you can’t have both as you laid out above.

Edited by Chicago White Sox
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45 minutes ago, Chicago White Sox said:

Alright, I’m all-in on Conforto once again after that Merkin tweet.  Here is the plan Rick:

  • Trade Kimbrel & $5M to the Phillies for Marchan & Y. Garcia
  • Sign Conforto to a 4/$76M deal with opt-outs after years 2 & 3
  • Trade Burger, Dalquist, Adolfo, & Y. Garcia to the A’s for Manaea

Stop fucking around and make this happen Rick!  Time to win a god damn World Series!

Don't Stop Believin'

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15 minutes ago, Chicago White Sox said:

Wheeler made $4M or $5M more than Keuchel.  I think they would have found a way to fit both him and Lynn in the budget.  

EDIT:  And it seems like you’re missing the point, in a hypothetical scenario with Wheeler, Keuchel is not around.  So you can’t have both as you laid out above.

You’re right, I missed wheeler being in Keuchel’s spot, need more coffee before posting. Yes, the Lynn trade still makes sense with Wheeler instead of Keuchel.

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4 minutes ago, Balta1701 said:

You’re right, I missed wheeler being in Keuchel’s spot, need more coffee before posting. Yes, the Lynn trade still makes sense with Wheeler instead of Keuchel.

I am actually much more upset about missing out on Wheeler than I am Machado.  I can’t even imagine having him instead off Dallas right now.  And that’s part of the reason I still must believe in Conforto.  Hahn simply can’t be this dumb if he made the largest offer to Wheeler and was heavily pursuing Burnes.  Something must be cooking even if the timing seems completely off.  I’m giving Rick to opening day before I take the pitch fork out again, but will definitely be sharpening it in the meantime.

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1 hour ago, Chicago White Sox said:

Parkman posted this in the Stiever thread, but bizarre retweet by Merkin…

 

1 yr deal makes sense for both parties. Conforto isn't getting a 5/100 deal with a bunch of opt outs. Give him a year to rebuild his value in a HR friendly park for LHH and with alot of lineup protection. Gives us a bridge to give Colas a year in the minors that addresses our needs. Give him a million more than QO so they can save face and recoup some savings with Kimbrel trade. 

 

Edited by SoCalChiSox
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1 minute ago, SoCalChiSox said:

1 yr deal makes sense for both parties. Conforto isn't getting a 5/100 deal with a bunch of opt outs. Give him a year to rebuild his value in a HR friendly park for LHH and with alot of lineup protection. Gives us a bridge to give Colas a year in the minors that addresses our needs.

 

I’ve been thinking about this as well.  But what kind of salary do you give him if he costs a draft pick?  The Cubs valued the loss of the 7th pick in the 2nd round and corresponding bonus pool losses (both domestic & international) around $20M.  Just don’t know what you could pay him on a one year deal that makes sense for both sides.  Our 2nd round pick is way lower and the Cubs are probably being a bit ridiculous there, but I think you’d have to shave at least $5M off a normalized salary.  Would you be ok with a 1/$15M deal?  I can’t see him getting much more than that on a one year deal.

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Just because Boras says a player he represents wants a certain number doesn't make the player worth that amount.  There is nothing in Conforto's body of work that makes him a $100M player IMO.  It looks like the other GMs agree with Hahn.  It won't surprise me a bit if Conforto signs with us within the next few weeks for a more team-friendly deal.  A GM puts his team in a better position to win if he doesn't put all his eggs in one player's basket.

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