Offseason Part 3 - Because Part 2 Was a Dud

[ThirdGen]

3 minutes ago, SoCalChiSox said:

Ofcourse no one is going to offer anything for him at 16m. At this point, someone might bite if we ate half the money, but there still would be no real return and an extra 8m to play with won't really address any of the core needs. Maybe it would have opened up room for the 1 yr/6m Joc deal when he was out there but that's about it.

Sounds like they will just have to hope he rebuilds his value during the season and other relievers get hurt. 

Settling for their 4th choice at 2B is comically bad but very much in line with this franchise's seemingly endless ability to step on their own dicks. Miller would have been nice but I understand they probably  didn't want to give out a 2 year deal to a short term bridge.

 

There is also the very real but hopefully not very real possibility that Hendriks gets hurt or has a bad run, having a second closer around wouldn't be the worst thing in the world.

[CaliSoxFanViaSWside]

19 minutes ago, SoxBlanco said:

I honestly can't decide on how much I like Sheets. I go back and forth.

One day, I'll be thinking, "Sheets had some solid numbers, but it was against very favorable matchups, and the pitchers will adjust. Trade him now while he's at his peak."

Then the next day, I'll think, "Man, Sheets didn't just have good numbers...he had some good-looking at bats. He knows how to work the count and take his walks, and he's only going to get better. He also had some HUGE hits last year in key spots. He could be the lefty power bat that we so desperately need."

Stick to the next day thinking. I get the favorable matchups take somewhat but not really. The Sox as a team were bumslayers so lots of guys got favorable matchups including Vaughn yet he still had tons of trouble against right handed bums except for that one stretch of a month or so. Sheets slugged .556 and .900 OPS against righties in 179 PA which was enough to be ineligible for Rookie status this year but not enough to get any serious ROY votes. I get that Vaughn will hit RHP much better than Gavin will ever hit LHP  and will improve immensely against RHP so Vaughn will always be a better , more complete player. BUt I still think Gavin deserve a shot to prove his worth almost as much as Vaughn has to prove his worth against RHP.

[ChiSox59]

7 minutes ago, SoCalChiSox said:

Ofcourse no one is going to offer anything for him at 16m. At this point, someone might bite if we ate half the money, but there still would be no real return and an extra 8m to play with won't really address any of the core needs. Maybe it would have opened up room for the 1 yr/6m Joc deal when he was out there but that's about it.

Sounds like they will just have to hope he rebuilds his value during the season and other relievers get hurt. 

Settling for their 4th choice at 2B is comically bad but very much in line with this franchise's seemingly endless ability to step on their own dicks. Miller would have been nice but I understand they probably  didn't want to give out a 2 year deal to a short term bridge.

 

Seeing as though Kenley just recently signed for 1/$16M, I think its pretty safe to say that Kimbrel's deal is right around market value.  He probably has no surplus value, and they'd have to eat $ to get a real return.  But I am sure there are a few teams who would happily take Kimbrel for nothing (LAD, BOS, Phils, Mets, TOR all come to mind off top of my head).  Sox probably aren't willing to accept nothing in return and would rather wait until someone is willing to overpay.  Maybe that day comes, maybe it doesn't.  But I'd rather roster Kimbrel than give him away for nothing assuming that $ isn't immediately reinvested into the team. 

[bmags]

11 minutes ago, raBBit said:

That is not true.

The problem with not offering the QO was not getting the pick when he went elsewhere. Rodon was never accepting the QO.

Could have had is poor choice of words, but I object to this phrasing going around that nobody wants Carlos at $22 million, because what the sox actually decided was they didn't want him at $18M (or $18.5 or whatever).  The thought of him accepting was so scary that the luring of an additional $1m in the draft wasn't worth the small risk.

It may be talking about two different things, but to me it sounds like rationalizing the sox were right to move on from Carlos because his final price tag was too high, when their initial price tag to they had to make a decision on was $4m and 1 year less.

[Look at Ray Ray Run]

3 minutes ago, ChiSox59 said:

Seeing as though Kenley just recently signed for 1/$16M, I think its pretty safe to say that Kimbrel's deal is right around market value.  He probably has no surplus value, and they'd have to eat $ to get a real return.  But I am sure there are a few teams who would happily take Kimbrel for nothing (LAD, BOS, Phils, Mets, TOR all come to mind off top of my head).  Sox probably aren't willing to accept nothing in return and would rather wait until someone is willing to overpay.  Maybe that day comes, maybe it doesn't.  But I'd rather roster Kimbrel than give him away for nothing assuming that $ isn't immediately reinvested into the team. 

Why would the dodgers give kimbrel 16 million but not resign Jansen?

[bmags]

3 minutes ago, ChiSox59 said:

Seeing as though Kenley just recently signed for 1/$16M, I think its pretty safe to say that Kimbrel's deal is right around market value.  He probably has no surplus value, and they'd have to eat $ to get a real return.  But I am sure there are a few teams who would happily take Kimbrel for nothing (LAD, BOS, Phils, Mets, TOR all come to mind off top of my head).  Sox probably aren't willing to accept nothing in return and would rather wait until someone is willing to overpay.  Maybe that day comes, maybe it doesn't.  But I'd rather roster Kimbrel than give him away for nothing assuming that $ isn't immediately reinvested into the team. 

It seemed at the time like the sox just thought kimbrel or kimbrel plus some small amount could fetch them more than $15 million in early free agency. But now it seems like they actually valued Kimbrel on this team for $16 million which is sillier when they signed two guys like Graveman/Kelly.

[A-Train to 35th]

5 minutes ago, ThirdGen said:

There is also the very real but hopefully not very real possibility that Hendriks gets hurt or has a bad run, having a second closer around wouldn't be the worst thing in the world.

Having played fantasy baseball for years until giving it up two years ago I know how often closers lose their role or get injured.  Hahn is being patient and waiting for a team in desperate need of a closer.  With that said Kimbrel has to return to some resemblance of his former self for anyone to take on his salary which if we have to wait until the trade deadline will only be about 8 million give or take.

[Bob Sacamano]

1 minute ago, Look at Ray Ray Run said:

Why would the dodgers give kimbrel 16 million but not resign Jansen?

Yeah I feel like Sox would have to eat some of that $16 million.

[bmags]

1 minute ago, Look at Ray Ray Run said:

Why would the dodgers give kimbrel 16 million but not resign Jansen?

Before Jansen signed I would have said "well kimbrel's only 1 year, and they probably don't want another multi-year reliever" but now, yeah, I don't see how you get anything back for Kimbrel from a team that specifically didn't sign Jensen for a 1 year deal. But maybe 

 

maybe the rockies save us

[YouCanPutItOnTheBoardYES!]

I don’t understand the waiting into the season to trade Kimbrel angle. If he’s pitching well enough at that point to warrant a decent return, wouldn’t the Sox just be better off keeping him?

[Squirmin' for Yermin]

2 minutes ago, YouCanPutItOnTheBoardYES! said:

I don’t understand the waiting into the season to trade Kimbrel angle. If he’s pitching well enough at that point to warrant a decent return, wouldn’t the Sox just be better off keeping him?

They say that because they have no legit offers that don't make them look like idiots (even though they do now)

[raBBit]

3 minutes ago, bmags said:

Could have had is poor choice of words, but I object to this phrasing going around that nobody wants Carlos at $22 million, because what the sox actually decided was they didn't want him at $18M (or $18.5 or whatever).  The thought of him accepting was so scary that the luring of an additional $1m in the draft wasn't worth the small risk.

 It may be talking about two different things, but to me it sounds like rationalizing the sox were right to move on from Carlos because his final price tag was too high, when their initial price tag to they had to make a decision on was $4m and 1 year less.

Yeah on that last part, I am not sure. Without question, the Sox underestimated his  market. They should have offered the QO and picked up the extra pick. The Sox have never held Rodon in high regard with respect to working hard. There has also been some mixed reports on his medicals. I tend to think the Sox didn't trust his shoulder. This could be totally wrong, but I know I read someone else say the Twins were turned off Rodon due to the medical eval. That could be totally off-base because I don't know how that would be reported. Anyway you cut it though, the Sox read his market wrong but Rodon was going to reject the QO had he been given the chance. 

[raBBit]

6 minutes ago, YouCanPutItOnTheBoardYES! said:

I don’t understand the waiting into the season to trade Kimbrel angle. If he’s pitching well enough at that point to warrant a decent return, wouldn’t the Sox just be better off keeping him?

Money.

JR doesn't like eating money. Hahn doesn't want to give him away. If the Sox were an effective organization they would have eaten 3m or so to get a better return three weeks ago. 

Edited March 30, 2022 by raBBit

[Two-Gun Pete]

8 minutes ago, raBBit said:

Yeah on that last part, I am not sure. Without question, the Sox underestimated his  market. They should have offered the QO and picked up the extra pick. The Sox have never held Rodon in high regard with respect to working hard. There has also been some mixed reports on his medicals. I tend to think the Sox didn't trust his shoulder. This could be totally wrong, but I know I read someone else say the Twins were turned off Rodon due to the medical eval. That could be totally off-base because I don't know how that would be reported. Anyway you cut it though, the Sox read his market wrong but Rodon was going to reject the QO had he been given the chance. 

I'm sure this is correct. But one wonders, had the SOX correctly offered the QO, and Rodon rejected it, would the draft pick comp have reduced or impacted the contract(s) offered to him? [Speculation, but] Maybe with the draft pick attached to him, he doesn't get a much better offer than the QO, and he theoretically could have returned... Oh well.

 

Digging a bit deeper into what Rodon actually got, was a 2 year deal, BUT with an opt out after year one. So, IOW, ~$4-ishMM more to go to San Francisco than the QO, and a chance for him to bet on himself again for a year. It doesn't really seem cost-prohibitive, and these Opt-outs enable teams to take on larger FA targets than they otherwise might, and gives the player a chance to go back to FA again sooner. [Thinking of Correa to Minn specifically.]

Edited March 30, 2022 by Two-Gun Pete

[raBBit]

3 minutes ago, Two-Gun Pete said:

I'm sure this is correct. But one wonders, had the SOX correctly offered the QO, and Rodon rejected it, would the draft pick comp have reduced or impacted the contract(s) offered to him? [Speculation, but] Maybe with the draft pick attached to him, he doesn't get a much better offer than the QO, and he theoretically could have returned... Oh well.

  

Digging a bit deeper into what Rodon actually got, was a 2 year deal, BUT with an opt out after year one. So, IOW, ~$4-ishMM more to go to San Francisco than the QO, and a chance for him to bet on himself again for a year. It doesn't really seem cost-prohibitive, and these Opt-outs enable teams to take on larger FA targets than they otherwise might, and gives the player a chance to go back to FA again sooner. [Thinking of Correa to Minn specifically.]

Your first paragraph is accurate. How much it would have killed his market is anyone's guess but no doubt he would have gotten a good chunk less with the QO attached. I know the Sox didn't rule out Rodon coming back after not giving him the QO so they pretty obviously had a value on him of 1 year less than 18.9M. Which is crazy. 

[caulfield12]

4 minutes ago, raBBit said:

Money.

JR doesn't like eating money. Hahn doesn't want to give him away. If the Sox were a modernly ran organization they would have eat 3m or so to get a better return three weeks ago. 

Well, it’s not like that money was ever going to be reallocated to Conforto regardless…

But it’s just like the Sox to be haggling over $2-3 million only to get left holding the bag for 5x much.

Hahn has to be 1) hoping and praying for closer issues or injuries from a team with a Top 10-15 payroll and 2) hoping that Kimbrel doesn’t go further south, become a daily distraction or even create some type of closer controversy if Hendriks blows 2-3 early saves.

We’ve reached the point of making Kimbrel the closer again just to trade him (Hendriks volunteering to step aside) or a few even arguing they should now trade Hendriks in order to accommodate Kimbrel.  They just keep compounding the original mistake many times over when the prudent move all along was to admit it was a bad fit (they can even assert it was an inspired, outside the box idea) and move on at only a $1 million loss for 2022.

[caulfield12]

11 minutes ago, Two-Gun Pete said:

I'm sure this is correct. But one wonders, had the SOX correctly offered the QO, and Rodon rejected it, would the draft pick comp have reduced or impacted the contract(s) offered to him? [Speculation, but] Maybe with the draft pick attached to him, he doesn't get a much better offer than the QO, and he theoretically could have returned... Oh well.

 

Digging a bit deeper into what Rodon actually got, was a 2 year deal, BUT with an opt out after year one. So, IOW, ~$4-ishMM more to go to San Francisco than the QO, and a chance for him to bet on himself again for a year. It doesn't really seem cost-prohibitive, and these Opt-outs enable teams to take on larger FA targets than they otherwise might, and gives the player a chance to go back to FA again sooner. [Thinking of Correa to Minn specifically.]

I’m going to trust the Giants’ sticker price tolerance over the Sox assessment at this point.  For SF, they’re in a transition phase now with a lowered payroll (minus Posey) of strategically retooling on the fly in the toughest division outside the AL East.  It’s almost like they are due for a mistake, with how well they’ve managed pitching assets and maximized what looks like an average or even below average everyday lineup offensively. But just two years makes a lot of sense with where that roster is vis a vis the Dodgers and Padres.

Edited March 30, 2022 by caulfield12

[Balta1701]

38 minutes ago, ChiSox59 said:

Seeing as though Kenley just recently signed for 1/$16M, I think its pretty safe to say that Kimbrel's deal is right around market value.  He probably has no surplus value, and they'd have to eat $ to get a real return.  But I am sure there are a few teams who would happily take Kimbrel for nothing (LAD, BOS, Phils, Mets, TOR all come to mind off top of my head).  Sox probably aren't willing to accept nothing in return and would rather wait until someone is willing to overpay.  Maybe that day comes, maybe it doesn't.  But I'd rather roster Kimbrel than give him away for nothing assuming that $ isn't immediately reinvested into the team. 

Someone should note that 4/5 of the teams you mentioned are over the tax.

[FoxForce2]

32 minutes ago, A-Train to 35th said:

Having played fantasy baseball for years until giving it up two years ago I know how often closers lose their role or get injured.  Hahn is being patient and waiting for a team in desperate need of a closer.  With that said Kimbrel has to return to some resemblance of his former self for anyone to take on his salary which if we have to wait until the trade deadline will only be about 8 million give or take.

I'd argue he's not worth $8M now and this is pretty much what the rest of MLB is signaling to the Sox.

[Bob Sacamano]

Just now, Balta1701 said:

Someone should note that 4/5 of the teams you mentioned are over the tax.

And as pointed out, Dodgers could have just re-signed their own guy at 1/$16 mill.

[CaliSoxFanViaSWside]

53 minutes ago, Quin said:

I was explaining this to my dad last night. It wasn't Rodon for what the Giants gave him. It was Rodon at $18M/1 year or getting a 2nd rounder. I'd take that over what we have right now.

All day every day.

[CaliSoxFanViaSWside]

50 minutes ago, Squirmin' for Yermin said:

That stat alone tells me he's a trade while value is high guy.

Like most people who think he's minor league depth I have a pretty good idea that his value isn't that high. It could get much higher if he is the main DH against RHP and gets 25-30 HRs and OPS is .850+ . Higher than that if he can play OF  for 25+ games no worse than Schwarber or Castellanos even if it's in RF . LF is preferable for OF'ers of his ilk but we have Vaughn and Eloy manning the corners .

[Two-Gun Pete]

33 minutes ago, raBBit said:

Your first paragraph is accurate. How much it would have killed his market is anyone's guess but no doubt he would have gotten a good chunk less with the QO attached. I know the Sox didn't rule out Rodon coming back after not giving him the QO so they pretty obviously had a value on him of 1 year less than 18.9M. Which is crazy. 

Agreed. While I haven't seen what this offseason $/WAR, assuming that it remained ~$8MM/WAR in FA, all Rodon would have to be is a ~2.5WAR player. Which is really, just above "just a guy." I can't believe that this FO doesn't understand this aspect of the FA market. It would be like a financial planner not understanding P/E ratios, or a 3rd grade teacher being unable to spell.

27 minutes ago, caulfield12 said:

I’m going to trust the Giants’ sticker price tolerance over the Sox assessment at this point.  For SF, they’re in a transition phase now with a lowered payroll (minus Posey) of strategically retooling on the fly in the toughest division outside the AL East.  It’s almost like they are due for a mistake, with how well they’ve managed pitching assets and maximized what looks like an average or even below average everyday lineup offensively. But just two years makes a lot of sense with where that roster is vis a vis the Dodgers and Padres.

I also agree with this. 

But, as it pertains to the SOX, I almost wish that they'd just be intellectually honest, and admit that the window is only this and next season. I would also wish that they'd EMBRACE contracts with opt-outs, because really, who cares about ~3 or more seasons from now? Using Opt-out contracts seems to help teams thread the needle between contract size and contract length, given a defined competitive window.

The way things look at the moment, we'll be right back into a rebuild the second Giolito walks out the door.

Edited March 30, 2022 by Two-Gun Pete

[bmags]

And obviously while trading Kimbrel at the deadline could actually be the best case return for the sox, it's unlikely to help the 2022 roster. Also has a decent likelihood that Kimbrel is atrocious and we get a return similar to our Joakim Soria-type boys (all the older, limited, AAAA outfielders)

[SCCWS]

1 hour ago, ThirdGen said:

There is also the very real but hopefully not very real possibility that Hendriks gets hurt or has a bad run, having a second closer around wouldn't be the worst thing in the world.

There is also the very real but hopefully not very real possibility that Kimbrall gets hurt. There is a real possibility  that Kimbrall has a bad run.