Offseason Part 3 - Because Part 2 Was a Dud

[Dick Allen]

Conforto is also a big union guy, so why he would probably be popular with teammates, JR would probably have to be hospitalized if he gave him the biggest contract in team history. 

[Tnetennba]

3 minutes ago, Chicago White Sox said:

Can’t give him an opt-out after one year given he will cost a pick.  At a minimum you got to get two years of control and preferably three.

Does he cost a pick this year?  

[SoCalChiSox]

12 minutes ago, Tnetennba said:

Just offer Conforto 5/$110 with an opt out after 1 already...

I would like an electric blue Lamborghini but that isn't going to happen either. 

Even NSC is sounding the death knell for Conforto. It's over, man. 

[Chicago White Sox]

6 minutes ago, Dick Allen said:

Most projections have him at about 2.5 WAR for 2021 which technically  is a $20 million player.  And to try to project that out another 3 or 4 seasons after that, you have to figure there will be some decline. It will be fascinating what he signs for. The QO would have been pretty fair.

The problem with projection systems is they lack subjectivity and don’t know how to account for his poor 2021 season.  Before that he was ~4 win player on average.  Unless you believe his 2021 was the start of a downhill trend and not the result of his hamstring injury and/or COVID, then I’d wager he’s going to be the guy he always was, at least to start off the contract.  And that guy is a steal at 4/$80M or even 5/$100M.

[Dick Allen]

Just now, Chicago White Sox said:

The problem with projection systems is they lack subjectivity and don’t know how to account for his poor 2021 season.  Before that he was ~4 win player on average.  Unless you believe his 2021 was the start of a downhill trend and not the result of his hamstring injury and/or COVID, then I’d wager he’s going to be the guy he always was, at least to start off the contract.  And that guy is a steal at 4/$80M or even 5/$100M.

I was reading about him last year, and they were thinking he would be in line for a Springer like contract because he is younger. It was like 7 years. Someone will pay him a lot more than I think. Boras has a way with pulling rabbits out of hats.

[SoCalChiSox]

2 minutes ago, Tnetennba said:

Does he cost a pick this year?  

Realistically no. If they work out an agreement for intl draft the pick goes away and they will agree because getting rid of that restriction is more valuable to union members than helping non union members.

 

[ptatc]

13 minutes ago, Look at Ray Ray Run said:

Think Conforto is in one of those tough spots too where he had a bigger offer on the table previously than he is likely being offered now, and he's just trying to get back to that initial Mets offer so he doesn't have egg on his face. 

That does make it harder to accept a lesser deal just from an ego sense.

[Tnetennba]

3 minutes ago, SoCalChiSox said:

I would like an electric blue Lamborghini but that isn't going to happen either. 

Even NSC is sounding the death knell for Conforto. It's over, man. 

NSC doesn't know shit.  Conforto might be a pipe dream but NSC sounding the death knell is meaningless.

[Polar Bear]

19 minutes ago, Chicago White Sox said:

I don’t get this take at all.  The Conforto from 2017 to 2020 is probably getting $150M+ contract.  He is one of the best hitters in baseball against RHP and can play a solid RF.  What is it you don’t like about him exactly?

Bc he is a .230-.250 plattoon bat with around 15-20 HR per year.  

That is not worth $25M/year

That is not worth $20M/year

That is not worth $15M/year

That's is barely worth $10M/year

 

I would literally rather have Adam Dunn back then pay $20-25M per year for blah.  It would be much better to play Vaughn/Sheets in RF bc they ahoiod get you at least what Xofnorto will if not better it. 

[Tnetennba]

2 minutes ago, SoCalChiSox said:

Realistically no. If they work out an agreement for intl draft the pick goes away and they will agree because getting rid of that restriction is more valuable to union members than helping non union members.

 

I know the QO is on hold until after the season contingent on the INT draft, but hadn't heard how it would impact players who received one before the lockout.  I was assuming no pick loss this year.

[Perfect Vision]

13 minutes ago, ptatc said:

yuck. That means if he bad, they are stuck with him. Because if he is good he leaves. This reminds me of the Heyward contract.

A 5/100 contract with an opt out after 2 makes perfect sense to me.  Yes if he's good after two he leaves, but that means the contract was 2/40, which I think the Sox would be much more in favor of Conforto signing today than 5/100.  And if he's bad and you're stuck with him, well, it would be the same as if the contract was 5/100 with no opt out.  In other words, adding an opt out should be a no brainer and no issue for the Sox whatsoever.

[Tnetennba]

1 minute ago, Perfect Vision said:

A 5/100 contract with an opt out after 2 makes perfect sense to me.  Yes if he's good after two he leaves, but that means the contract was 2/40, which I think the Sox would be much more in favor of Conforto signing today than 5/100.  And if he's bad and you're stuck with him, well, it would be the same as if the contract was 5/100 with no opt out.  In other words, adding an opt out should be a no brainer and no issue for the Sox whatsoever.

This is my line of thinking as well.  Boras is going to want opt outs.  I threw it after year one to be enticing to both sides.

[chw42]

3 minutes ago, Polar Bear said:

Bc he is a .230-.250 plattoon bat with around 15-20 HR per year.  

That is not worth $25M/year

That is not worth $20M/year

That is not worth $15M/year

That's is barely worth $10M/year

 

I would literally rather have Adam Dunn back then pay $20-25M per year for blah.  It would be much better to play Vaughn/Sheets in RF bc they ahoiod get you at least what Xofnorto will if not better it. 

He's not that bad. He was a 3-4 WAR player every season from 2017-2020 and he's only 29. The 2.5 WAR he's projected for is totally fair, but I think he has bounce back potential to being a 4 WAR player again.

[Balta1701]

1 minute ago, Tnetennba said:

This is my line of thinking as well.  Boras is going to want opt outs.  I threw it after year one to be enticing to both sides.

Unfortunately, not only were the White Sox willing to lose Machado over opt-outs, I'm not sure of any contract where they've offered one.

[Chicago White Sox]

9 minutes ago, Tnetennba said:

Does he cost a pick this year?  

I’m assuming there are no changes in draft compensation / penalty and it’s the removal of the QO in general that will go into effect next offseason.  I could totally be wrong, everyone is saying it was a huge mistake not to offer Rodon a QO because of the loss of a pick, so I’m going to assume it works both ways and penalty is still in effect.  Also, most of the quality free agents are QO guys, which makes sense if they will cost a pick to sign.

[SoCalChiSox]

2 minutes ago, Tnetennba said:

NSC doesn't know shit.  Conforto might be a pipe dream but NSC sounding the death knell is meaningless.

Pal pretty much did too. He said Sox won't go to 4 years when in reality even that peolly won't be enough and we know JR isnt going to also assume the risk of a one sided opt out. 

Honestly the only way I see him coming here is if BOS also doesn't want to assume that risk and he ends up having to accept a bloated 1 yr deal for 22m+. 

I doubt it will get to that point. He will find a taker for 4-5 year deal with opt out. 

And Chicago has now pivoted already to addressing the need via the Kimbrel trade it seems. If they can get Bellinger for Kimbrel and taking Price's contract that would be great. Ofcourse, to make it work financially they'll need to unload Keuchel first.

If you unload Kimbrel (16) and say 12 of Keuchels 18, that's 28 in savings. Bellinger and Price would be what somewhere around 40 added on? So a net add of 12? I don't know if JR will add that much more on a net basis. 

[Chicago White Sox]

12 minutes ago, SoCalChiSox said:

I would like an electric blue Lamborghini but that isn't going to happen either. 

Even NSC is sounding the death knell for Conforto. It's over, man. 

I enjoy seeing NSC’s “rumors”, but he steals half of his ideas from SoxTalk and from other insiders.  I wouldn’t worry too much about what he is saying.  At this point we just have to wait and see where Conforto lands.

[Chicago White Sox]

12 minutes ago, Dick Allen said:

I was reading about him last year, and they were thinking he would be in line for a Springer like contract because he is younger. It was like 7 years. Someone will pay him a lot more than I think. Boras has a way with pulling rabbits out of hats.

It’s definitely a possibility but a lot of GMs wolf demand a discount due to his bad 2021.

[Polar Bear]

Just now, chw42 said:

He's not that bad. He was a 3-4 WAR player every season from 2017-2020 and he's only 29. The 2.5 WAR he's projected for is totally fair, but I think he has bounce back potential to being a 4 WAR player again.

He is 

2021: .232 AVG, 14 HR, 55 RBI's

2021 Splits:

Vs RHP:  .243 AVG, 13 HR, 43 RBI's

Vs LHP:  .200 AVG, 1 HR, 9 RBI's ??

_____

No one with those stats should ever be paid $20M+ and he's almost 30.  So he is more of that than what he was he was younger.  

Hard pass for me unless they get Conforto on a big discount. 

[SoCalChiSox]

Just now, Chicago White Sox said:

I enjoy seeing NSC’s “rumors”, but he steals half of his ideas from SoxTalk and from other insiders.  I wouldn’t worry too much about what he is saying.  At this point we just have to wait and see where Conforto lands.

I hear you and if it were only him that would be one thing. But Pal is openly saying we won't go 4 years and now we have reports the team is pivoting to one all inclusive trade to put a bandaid on all these issues for a year (RF, SP) rather than substantively addressing the problem. 

 

[EloyJenkins]

4 minutes ago, Balta1701 said:

Unfortunately, not only were the White Sox willing to lose Machado over opt-outs, I'm not sure of any contract where they've offered one.

Correct, and apparently JR doesn't believe in them. probably some loyalty BS line in his imagination. 

[Tnetennba]

4 minutes ago, Balta1701 said:

Unfortunately, not only were the White Sox willing to lose Machado over opt-outs, I'm not sure of any contract where they've offered one.

And it speaks to their backwards thinking when it comes to FA.  

[Tnetennba]

4 minutes ago, SoCalChiSox said:

Pal pretty much did too. He said Sox won't go to 4 years when in reality even that peolly won't be enough and we know JR isnt going to also assume the risk of a one sided opt out. 

Honestly the only way I see him coming here is if BOS also doesn't want to assume that risk and he ends up having to accept a bloated 1 yr deal for 22m+. 

I doubt it will get to that point. He will find a taker for 4-5 year deal with opt out. 

And Chicago has now pivoted already to addressing the need via the Kimbrel trade it seems. If they can get Bellinger for Kimbrel and taking Price's contract that would be great. Ofcourse, to make it work financially they'll need to unload Keuchel first.

If you unload Kimbrel (16) and say 12 of Keuchels 18, that's 28 in savings. Bellinger and Price would be what somewhere around 40 added on? So a net add of 12? I don't know if JR will add that much more on a net basis. 

Yes I am aware, he responded to my post saying they wouldn't go 4.  Which was rather disappointing.

[Tnetennba]

7 minutes ago, Chicago White Sox said:

I’m assuming there are no changes in draft compensation / penalty and it’s the removal of the QO in general that will go into effect next offseason.  I could totally be wrong, everyone is saying it was a huge mistake not to offer Rodon a QO because of the loss of a pick, so I’m going to assume it works both ways and penalty is still in effect.  Also, most of the quality free agents are QO guys, which makes sense if they will cost a pick to sign.

That's makes senses.  I just haven't heard for certain how it works regarding picks for this season.

[chw42]

3 minutes ago, Polar Bear said:

He is 

2021: .232 AVG, 14 HR, 55 RBI's

2021 Splits:

Vs RHP:  .243 AVG, 13 HR, 43 RBI's

Vs LHP:  .200 AVG, 1 HR, 9 RBI's ??

_____

No one with those stats should ever be paid $20M+ and he's almost 30.  So he is more of that than what he was he was younger.  

Hard pass for me unless they get Conforto on a big discount. 

Because players who have a bad season at 29 never bounce back again, ever. 

I know it might seem weird to give a player coming off a 0.8 WAR season a large contract, but Conforto's track record is far better than the results he posted in 2021.