Rick Hahn & The Art of Resource Allocation

[Chicago White Sox]

There has been a lot of discussion on Soxtalk and elsewhere within the broader White Sox community about the effectiveness of our offseason.  Many fans are upset with the moves made so far, while others point to a strong core and limited places to supplement.  As such, I wanted to put pen to paper and take an objective look at what Rick Hahn has accomplished this offseason and see if there was potentially a better path in terms of resource allocation.

To start, let’s level where the team stands today.  Fangraphs’ Depth Charts has the Sox projected for 47.1 fWAR this year, which ranks 5th overall in baseball.  Here is the break-out by area along with our corresponding payroll allocation:

• Lineup: 25.2 | $80.0M | $3.2M/win
• Bench: 1.8 | $8.9M | $4.9M/win
• Rotation: 14.9 | $46.2M | $3.1M/win
• Bullpen: 5.3 | $53.1M | $10.M/win
• Total: 47.1 | $188.2M | $4.0M/win

Now, what’s fascinating is that Hahn has committed $34M of this year’s payroll to relievers this offseason in Kimbrel, Graveman, Kelly, & Velasquez.  Those four guys are projected for 1.5 wins total over 233 innings.  That’s an effective cost of $22.7M per win.  For reference, Fangraphs typically values 1 fWAR at being worth ~$8M.  While I don’t believe that fWAR is the end-all-be-all when it comes to evaluating relievers, I think it’s very clear that paying anywhere near $22.3M per incremental win is an atrocious use of limited resources.

So you may be asking where else should we have invested?  The easy answer is 2B and the obvious solution there would have been Eduardo Escobar.  Right now, our group of 2B are projected for 1.6 fWAR this year.  For an additional $6M in payroll for 2022 vs. what we’re paying Harrison, we could have improved our 2B projections by 1.1 wins.  That’s at an effective cost of $5.5M per win.  And yes, a two year commitment would be required, but even if you got 0 fWAR out of EE in 2023 you’d be paying $13.2M, which is substantially better than return on our bullpen investment.  Signing Eduardo Escobar should have been an absolute no brainer for us even with the 2023 requirement.

The other obvious spot is RF.  Right now Fangraphs projects us to get 1.6 fWAR out of the position, tied for lowest on the team with 2B.  Now, this one comes down to what kind of production you think Michael Conforto will provide next year.  If you go with Fangraphs’ projections of him being a 2.2 win player across 530 PAs, his addition would be worth a single win over our Frankenstein RF group is expected to provide.  At an expected salary of ~$20M, that’s not a great way to allocate funds in isolation.  But if you believe he’s closer to the 2017 to 2020 guy, then we’re talking 2+ incremental wins out of RF at a cost of $10M per win or less.  And while harder to value, you also improve your depth significantly by allowing Sheets to move to an insurance role offering protection at multiple spots.

Ultimately, if you take the optimistic view on Conforto, signing both him and Escobar at a combined $25M (net of Harrison - one rookie contract) provides roughly three incremental wins on the positional side of things.  To fund this, you don’t pick up Kimbrel’s option and you don’t sign Kelly, which saves ~$21M (after buy-out + one rookie contract) but results in a loss of 0.9 fWAR.  Yes, you are a little short, but to cover that gap you don’t extend Leury and instead hand the utility role to Romy Gonzalez, who is projected to provide very similar production next year.  Overall, you end up with a team projected to win 2 more games and with less major question marks, but at the expend of less bullpen depth.  That’s a trade-off worth making IMO and also makes it easier to trade Sheets / Cespedes / Popeye to address pitching needs at the deadline.

Look, my hypothetical “sign Conforto & Escobar” plan is just one way to skin a cat.  We could have made a harder effort for Ray or Gausman or even brought back Rodon and gone cheaper at 2B or RF.  But the key point here is paying  top dollar for relievers who will be pitching medium and low leverage innings is a horrible use of resources.  Don’t get me wrong, we definitely needed legit bullpen help and I’m ok spending for premium talent, but there has to be a limit and 28% of total team payroll is way too much when other obvious needs exist.  Rick still has a chance to undo some of the damage by trading Kimbrel and using those resources toward Conforto or a SP, but he’s quickly running out of time.  When opening day hits, it will be very interesting to see if that win projection remains at 47.1 or if Hahn has pulled off some minute moves that better utilize our limited resources.

[poppysox]

Projected fWAR discussions are a little too esoteric for me but I get the gist of your points.  We have a top 5 team and some here feel the money available could and should be spent in a better way.  I think once Kimbrel is gone and we see the return we will have a better idea of the whole plan.  Kimbrel could net an upgraded 2nd baseman or SP.  He might be used along with a Burger-type piece to acquire a sexy outfielder and backup catcher.  Once he moves Kimbrel will he come back on Conforto?  The next two weeks will be interesting as RH shows his cards.  Until then...I hope he knows more about Kimbrel's value than I do.  I would have just dropped the option and skipped right to the spend my money phase.

[Chicago White Sox]

2 minutes ago, poppysox said:

Projected fWAR discussions are a little too esoteric for me but I get the gist of your points.  We have a top 5 team and some here feel the money available could and should be spent in a better way.  I think once Kimbrel is gone and we see the return we will have a better idea of the whole plan.  Kimbrel could net an upgraded 2nd baseman or SP.  He might be used along with a Burger-type piece to acquire a sexy outfielder and backup catcher.  Once he moves Kimbrel will he come back on Conforto?  The next two weeks will be interesting as RH shows his cards.  Until then...I hope he knows more about Kimbrel's value than I do.  I would have just dropped the option and skipped right to the spend my money phase.

I agree there is still some time, but options to improve are quickly running out.  That being said, I plan to revisit this once we see if they do anything else.

[Tnetennba]

10 minutes ago, Chicago White Sox said:

I agree there is still some time, but options to improve are quickly running out.  That being said, I plan to revisit this once we see if they do anything else.

Sitting here on March 26th that feels like an awfully big IF.

[caulfield12]

8 hours ago, Chicago White Sox said:

There has been a lot of discussion on Soxtalk and elsewhere within the broader White Sox community about the effectiveness of our offseason.  Many fans are upset with the moves made so far, while others point to a strong core and limited places to supplement.  As such, I wanted to put pen to paper and take an objective look at what Rick Hahn has accomplished this offseason and see if there was potentially a better path in terms of resource allocation.

To start, let’s level where the team stands today.  Fangraphs’ Depth Charts has the Sox projected for 47.1 fWAR this year, which ranks 5th overall in baseball.  Here is the break-out by area along with our corresponding payroll allocation:

• Lineup: 25.2 | $80.0M | $3.2M/win
• Bench: 1.8 | $8.9M | $4.9M/win
• Rotation: 14.9 | $46.2M | $3.1M/win
• Bullpen: 5.3 | $53.1M | $10.M/win
• Total: 47.1 | $188.2M | $4.0M/win

Now, what’s fascinating is that Hahn has committed $34M of this year’s payroll to relievers this offseason in Kimbrel, Graveman, Kelly, & Velasquez.  Those four guys are projected for 1.5 wins total over 233 innings.  That’s an effective cost of $22.7M per win.  For reference, Fangraphs typically values 1 fWAR at being worth ~$8M.  While I don’t believe that fWAR is the end-all-be-all when it comes to evaluating relievers, I think it’s very clear that paying anywhere near $22.3M per incremental win is an atrocious use of limited resources.

So you may be asking where else should we have invested?  The easy answer is 2B and the obvious solution there would have been Eduardo Escobar.  Right now, our group of 2B are projected for 1.6 fWAR this year.  For an additional $6M in payroll for 2022 vs. what we’re paying Harrison, we could have improved our 2B projections by 1.1 wins.  That’s at an effective cost of $5.5M per win.  And yes, a two year commitment would be required, but even if you got 0 fWAR out of EE in 2023 you’d be paying $13.2M, which is substantially better than return on our bullpen investment.  Signing Eduardo Escobar should have been an absolute no brainer for us even with the 2023 requirement.

The other obvious spot is RF.  Right now Fangraphs projects us to get 1.6 fWAR out of the position, tied for lowest on the team with 2B.  Now, this one comes down to what kind of production you think Michael Conforto will provide next year.  If you go with Fangraphs’ projections of him being a 2.2 win player across 530 PAs, his addition would be worth a single win over our Frankenstein RF group is expected to provide.  At an expected salary of ~$20M, that’s not a great way to allocate funds in isolation.  But if you believe he’s closer to the 2017 to 2020 guy, then we’re talking 2+ incremental wins out of RF at a cost of $10M per win or less.  And while harder to value, you also improve your depth significantly by allowing Sheets to move to an insurance role offering protection at multiple spots.

Ultimately, if you take the optimistic view on Conforto, signing both him and Escobar at a combined $25M (net of Harrison - one rookie contract) provides roughly three incremental wins on the positional side of things.  To fund this, you don’t pick up Kimbrel’s option and you don’t sign Kelly, which saves ~$21M (after buy-out + one rookie contract) but results in a loss of 0.9 fWAR.  Yes, you are a little short, but to cover that gap you don’t extend Leury and instead hand the utility role to Romy Gonzalez, who is projected to provide very similar production next year.  Overall, you end up with a team projected to win 2 more games and with less major question marks, but at the expend of less bullpen depth.  That’s a trade-off worth making IMO and also makes it easier to trade Sheets / Cespedes / Popeye to address pitching needs at the deadline.

Look, my hypothetical “sign Conforto & Escobar” plan is just one way to skin a cat.  We could have made a harder effort for Ray or Gausman or even brought back Rodon and gone cheaper at 2B or RF.  But the key point here is paying  top dollar for relievers who will be pitching medium and low leverage innings is a horrible use of resources.  Don’t get me wrong, we definitely needed legit bullpen help and I’m ok spending for premium talent, but there has to be a limit and 28% of total team payroll is way too much when other obvious needs exist.  Rick still has a chance to undo some of the damage by trading Kimbrel and using those resources toward Conforto or a SP, but he’s quickly running out of time.  When opening day hits, it will be very interesting to see if that win projection remains at 47.1 or if Hahn has pulled off some minute moves that better utilize our limited resources.

Really solid post.  It could be sliced and diced ten different ways, or a Ketel Marte thrown in there as well because it seems this team has no plan whatsoever to replace the likes of Gio and TA7 and extend the window past 2024.

Even if you do this same exercise with the Angels’ roster, it’s still not as ridiculously weighted towards the bullpen…their problem is having so much payroll tied into Trout, Rendon and Ohtani (see 2013-16 White Sox Stars and Subs approach).

I have a feeling VV won’t last the first 2-3 months.  Harrison could easily go the way of 2021 Adam Eaton.

Oh, and expenditure.

[caulfield12]

3 hours ago, poppysox said:

Projected fWAR discussions are a little too esoteric for me but I get the gist of your points.  We have a top 5 team and some here feel the money available could and should be spent in a better way.  I think once Kimbrel is gone and we see the return we will have a better idea of the whole plan.  Kimbrel could net an upgraded 2nd baseman or SP.  He might be used along with a Burger-type piece to acquire a sexy outfielder and backup catcher.  Once he moves Kimbrel will he come back on Conforto?  The next two weeks will be interesting as RH shows his cards.  Until then...I hope he knows more about Kimbrel's value than I do.  I would have just dropped the option and skipped right to the spend my money phase.

That would make Josh Harrison pretty much superfluous on this roster…

[Two-Gun Pete]

8 hours ago, Chicago White Sox said:

Fangraphs’ Depth Charts has the Sox projected for 47.1 fWAR this year, which ranks 5th overall in baseball.  Here is the break-out by area along with our corresponding payroll allocation:

• Lineup: 25.2 | $80.0M | $3.2M/win
• Bench: 1.8 | $8.9M | $4.9M/win
• Rotation: 14.9 | $46.2M | $3.1M/win
• Bullpen: 5.3 | $53.1M | $10.M/win
• Total: 47.1 | $188.2M | $4.0M/win

Now, what’s fascinating is that Hahn has committed $34M of this year’s payroll to relievers this offseason in Kimbrel, Graveman, Kelly, & Velasquez.  Those four guys are projected for 1.5 wins total over 233 innings.  That’s an effective cost of $22.7M per win.  For reference, Fangraphs typically values 1 fWAR at being worth ~$8M. 

I think it’s very clear that paying anywhere near $22.3M per incremental win is an atrocious use of limited resources.

 

But the key point here is paying  top dollar for relievers who will be pitching medium and low leverage innings is a horrible use of resources.

 Don’t get me wrong, we definitely needed legit bullpen help and I’m ok spending for premium talent, but there has to be a limit and 28% of total team payroll is way too much when other obvious needs exist.

Dude, you lit me up for posting pretty much all of the bolded, going back to the TDL. Thank you for coming around on this.

 

In watching Velasquez predictably shit his pants today, I wanted to focus on the $ value of 1 WAR, and how this offseason has sucked. 

Everything you posted about the moronic squandering of CBT space on 1 IP/outing RPs is absolutely true. I also have been looking around, but I believe that RH has successfully assembled the most expensive bullpen in MLB history. According to Spotrac, I think this is true, but I want to verify.

 

Anyway, some posters dismissed the idea of Rodon and the QO. Recall that it was a 1 year commitment at $18.4MM; all Rodon would have had to do would have been to pitch ~90 IP, at only ~70% as well as he did in 2021 to be worth the QO.

Now, Velasquez will either fuck up this team's chances, or force RH to trade from a position of weakness.

Elsewhere on the diamond, to your point Escobar should have been the move to make at 2B. At RF, if Conforto was always a pipe dream, then Joc should have been the move. Between these two, the WAR production would have been more effective use of limited budget space than 3 obese RP contracts. 

 

Back home in Chicago, the talking heads on radio are focused on the overall $ amount spent, NOT what was actually accomplished this offseason. The imbeciles in the press dont have a clue on just how bad this offseason has gone. Levine continues to tweet shit that is unlikely to happen.

I suspect that media types and writers will finally catch up to what we now know about how RH fucked up, say, around Memorial Day. Or, whenever Harrison and Velasquez are DFA'ed. 

Fun times.

Edited March 26, 2022 by Two-Gun Pete

[Two-Gun Pete]

5 minutes ago, caulfield12 said:

Really solid post.  It could be sliced and diced ten different ways, or a Ketel Marte thrown in there as well because it seems this team has no plan whatsoever to replace the likes of Gio and TA7 and extend the window past 2024.

Even if you do this same exercise with the Angels’ roster, it’s still not as ridiculously weighted towards the bullpen…their problem is having so much payroll tied into Trout, Rendon and Ohtani (see 2013-16 White Sox Stars and Subs approach).

Accept that this window closes the second that Giolito files for FA. I once bought into the  "multiple championships" bullshit as well. But this FO has done everything possible to sabotage and shorten this window.

We've got 2022, and 2023, and thats it... Unless Kopech and Crochet become a lot more durable, and/or a few pieces from the league's worst system surprise us.

They assembled an aging stars-and-scrubs rotation, and a stars-and-scrubs lineup, with square pegs in the OF corners.

I'll allow that it theoretically "could work," but then you're counting on a series of unlikely outcomes to take place.

[caulfield12]

3 minutes ago, Two-Gun Pete said:

Dude, you lit me up for posting pretty much all of the bolded, going back to the TDL. Thank you for coming around on this.

 

In watching Velasquez predictably shit his pants today, I wanted to focus on the $ value of 1 WAR, and how this offseason has sucked. 

Everything you posted about the moronic squandering of CBT space on 1 IP/outing RPs is absolutely true. I also have been looking around, but I believe that RH has successfully assembled the most expensive bullpen in MLB history. According to Spotrac, I think this is true, but I want to verify.

 

Anyway, some posters dismissed the idea of Rodon and the QO. Recall that it was a 1 year commitment at $18.4MM; all Rodon would have had to do would have been to pitch ~90 IP, at only ~70% as well as he did in 2021. Now, Velasquez will either fuck up this team's chances, or force RH to trade from a position of weakness.

Elsewhere on the diamond, to your point Escobar should have been the move to make at 2B. At RF, if Conforto was always a pipe dream, then Joc should have been the move. Between these two, the WAR production would have been more effective use of limited budget space than 3 obese RP contracts. 

 

Back home in Chicago, the talking heads on radio are focused on the overall $ amount spent, NOT what was actually accomplished. The imbeciles in the press dont have a clue on just how bad this offseason has gone.

I suspect that media types and writers will finally catch up to what we now know, say around Memorial Day, or whenever Harrison and Velasquez are DFA'ed. 

Fun times.

Might as well trade everything not nailed down for Murphy (as the starting catcher) and Montas/Manaea and compete like hell in 2022-23.  Grandal would be getting 60% of his at-bats at DH, 40% at catcher to preserve his health.

Because while it would mean the loss of Sheets, Crochet and probably Vaughn…it would be the best way to up payroll in the future, actually getting to the ALCS and maybe even a WS.

Otherwise, it’s a losing battling over roster attrition, escalating extension salaries internally and waving goodbye to player after player without being able to replace them cheaply from the barren farm system.

 

Of course, that likely means relying 100% on Jose Abreu in 2023 as well, which is dangerous in and of itself.

[caulfield12]

6 minutes ago, Two-Gun Pete said:

Accept that this window closes the second that Giolito files for FA. I once bought into the  "multiple championships" bullshit as well. But this FO has done everything possible to sabotage and shorten this window.

We've got 2022, and 2023, and thats it... Unless Kopech and Crochet become a lot more durable, and/or a few pieces from the league's worst system surprise us.

They assembled an aging stars-and-scrubs rotation, and a stars-and-scrubs lineup, with square pegs in the OF corners.

I'll allow that it theoretically "could work," but then you're counting on a series of unlikely outcomes to take place.

Yep, Colas and Crochet and perhaps Vera would have to become significant contributors, with Kopech a Top 10ish AL fWAR value to pair with Cease.  And God forbid they have a major pitching injury, because that means we’ll be looking more backwards at division competitors gaining on us than at potentially advancing in the playoffs.

That’s why putting Buxton and Correa together for one season is admirable.  Risky as hell, and 75-80% chance it doesn’t payoff, but it’s 10x the strategy for putting together an outstanding season than relievers and scrubs supplementing a great core.

Edited March 26, 2022 by caulfield12

[Two-Gun Pete]

5 minutes ago, caulfield12 said:

Might as well trade everything not nailed down for Murphy (as the starting catcher) and Montas/Manaea and compete like hell in 2022-23.  Grandal would be getting 60% of his at-bats at DH, 40% at catcher to preserve his health.

Because while it would mean the loss of Sheets, Crochet and probably Vaughn…it would be the best way to up payroll in the future, actually getting to the ALCS and maybe even a WS.

Otherwise, it’s a losing battling over roster attrition, escalating extension salaries internally and waving goodbye to player after player without being able to replace them cheaply from the barren farm system.

 

Of course, that likely means relying 100% on Jose Abreu in 2023 as well, which is dangerous in and of itself.

I agree with all of this. However, I dont think this team has the ammo to get Montas or Manea. We're already into spring training, and all of a fortnight away from OD. I think that a trade for Montas or Manea is wishcasting, unfortunately. 

I also think that those who still hold out hope for a last-minute move to salvage this offseason are still in the "bargaining" phase; once OD passes, it'll be a cavalcade of "acceptance."

 

The best case scenario, IMO, is for a NL contender to have a series of SIGNIFICANT RP injuries, AND for Kimbrel to not shit his pants, AND for that NL team to also have a surplus piece that we could use for THIS year.

 

Now, if all of that comes to fruition, then it'll be hats off to Rick Hahn. I dont see all of this happening our way, unfortunately. 

Edited March 26, 2022 by Two-Gun Pete

[Chicago White Sox]

5 minutes ago, Two-Gun Pete said:

Dude, you lit me up for posting pretty much all of the bolded, going back to the TDL. Thank you for coming around on this.

 

In watching Velasquez predictably shit his pants today, I wanted to focus on the $ value of 1 WAR, and how this offseason has sucked. 

Everything you posted about the moronic squandering of CBT space on 1 IP/outing RPs is absolutely true. I also have been looking around, but I believe that RH has successfully assembled the most expensive bullpen in MLB history. According to Spotrac, I think this is true, but I want to verify.

 

Anyway, some posters dismissed the idea of Rodon and the QO. Recall that it was a 1 year commitment at $18.4MM; all Rodon would have had to do would have been to pitch ~90 IP, at only ~70% as well as he did in 2021. Now, Velasquez will either fuck up this team's chances, or force RH to trade from a position of weakness.

Elsewhere on the diamond, to your point Escobar should have been the move to make at 2B. At RF, if Conforto was always a pipe dream, then Joc should have been the move. Between these two, the WAR production would have been more effective use of limited budget space than 3 obese RP contracts. 

 

Back home in Chicago, the talking heads on radio are focused on the overall $ amount spent, NOT what was actually accomplished. The imbeciles in the press dont have a clue on just how bad this offseason has gone.

I suspect that media types and writers will finally catch up to what we now know, say around Memorial Day, or whenever Harrison and Velasquez are DFA'ed. 

Fun times.

Just to be clear, I’m ok with signing premium relievers and allocating a higher percentage of our team payroll to relief pitching in general.  But there are limits and at a bare minimum, it should have been keep Kimbrel or sign Graveman / Kelly.  Additionally, it just feels like both contracts are a bit on the high end.  Like Graveman is the only reliever other than Iglesias to get more than two years.  And Kelly getting $8.5M per year on a two year deal seems a bit high to me.  I actually am excited both guys, but just seems like Hahn misread the market and overpaid for both of them.

Also, the one caveat with my original post is if Hahn can unload Kimbrel and reallocate the savings elsewhere then I will be far less angry.  But keeping Craig and signing both Kelly & Graveman is a firable offense IMO.

[Chicago White Sox]

3 minutes ago, Two-Gun Pete said:

I agree with all of this. I dont think this team has the ammo to get Montas or Manea.

 

The best case scenario, IMO, is for a NL contender to have a series of SIGNIFICANT RP injuries, AND for Kimbrel to not shitbhis pants, AND for that NL team to also have a surplus piece that we could use for THIS year.

 

Now, if all of that comes to fruition, then it'll be hats off to Rick Hahn. I dont see all of this happening our way, unfortunately. 

They have the ammo for Manaea, but probably not Montas.

[caulfield12]

1 minute ago, Two-Gun Pete said:

I agree with all of this. I dont think this team has the ammo to get Montas or Manea.

 

The best case scenario, IMO, is for a NL contender to have a series of SIGNIFICANT RP injuries, AND for Kimbrel to not shitbhis pants, AND for that NL team to also have a surplus piece that we could use for THIS year.

 

Now, if all of that comes to fruition, then it'll be hats off to Rick Hahn. I dont see all of this happening our way, unfortunately. 

You pretty much have to trade Vaughn/Crochet/Sheets to get Murphy and whoever you want more between Montas and Manaea.

Or you really go crazy and trade Jimenez instead, but the contract makes Vaughn more realistic, as well as his being a West Coast guy.

 

[Two-Gun Pete]

6 minutes ago, Chicago White Sox said:

They have the ammo for Manaea, but probably not Montas.

Recall that this same FO willingly gave up 24 years of control over 4 'spects to get a mediocre Jeff Samardzija from the same org that control Manea and Montas. The loss of controllable fWAR CAUSED this org to be "mired in mediocrity."

A trade with Oakland would be disastrous, IMO. I think that Oakland have ripped off the SOX enough times to prove this to be true.

5 minutes ago, caulfield12 said:

You pretty much have to trade Vaughn/Crochet/Sheets to get Murphy and whoever you want more between Montas and Manaea.

Or you really go crazy and trade Jimenez instead, but the contract makes Vaughn more realistic, as well as his being a West Coast guy.

 

This.

And, I'm reluctant to trade Crochet or Vaughn.

It really didn't have to be this way, but here we are.

Edited March 26, 2022 by Two-Gun Pete

[Chicago White Sox]

Just now, Two-Gun Pete said:

Recall that this same FO willingly gave up 24 years of control over 4 'spects to get a mediocre Jeff Samardzija from the same org that control Manea or Montas. The loss of controllable fWAR CAUSED this org to be "mired in mediocrity."

A trade with Oakland would be disastrous, IMO. I think that Oakland have ripped off the SOX enough times to prove this to be true.

This.

And, I'm reluctant to trade Crochet or Vaughn.

It really didn't have to be this way, but here we are.

But we’re in our window right now and we’re better off with Sean Manaea this year than Jake Burger in a backup role for the next six.  Outside of a handful of prospects, I don’t think you really worry about losing a trade if it helps you win this year.

[Chicago White Sox]

3 minutes ago, Two-Gun Pete said:

Recall that this same FO willingly gave up 24 years of control over 4 'spects to get a mediocre Jeff Samardzija from the same org that control Manea or Montas. The loss of controllable fWAR CAUSED this org to be "mired in mediocrity."

A trade with Oakland would be disastrous, IMO. I think that Oakland have ripped off the SOX enough times to prove this to be true.

This.

And, I'm reluctant to trade Crochet or Vaughn.

It really didn't have to be this way, but here we are.

What are all these trades in which Oakland ripped us off?

[Two-Gun Pete]

9 minutes ago, Chicago White Sox said:

But we’re in our window right now and we’re better off with Sean Manaea this year than Jake Burger in a backup role for the next six.  Outside of a handful of prospects, I don’t think you really worry about losing a trade if it helps you win this year.

Yes, we're in the window right now. But, I don't know if THIS FO has the ability to match wits with Oakland's. 

8 minutes ago, Chicago White Sox said:

What are all these trades in which Oakland ripped us off?

Ok, now don't get amped up by this, because you got amped up when I called the Kimbrel trade, "stoopid."

 

To answer your question, starting with ~3-ish fWAR 2Bman Ray Durham for a middle relief prospect Jon Adkins. To this day, Beane calls that trade, "his best trade ever."

Then the Billy Koch trade for Keith Foulke.

And of course, the Samardzjia rapeage. This one alone should have been a fireable offense.

I'm not seeing a whole lot of wins in trading with Oakland here. Do you see any sort of fair deals between these two FOs?

I don't. 

Edited March 26, 2022 by Two-Gun Pete

[caulfield12]

6 minutes ago, Chicago White Sox said:

What are all these trades in which Oakland ripped us off?

Shark and Swisher, to name a couple.  Durham/Adkins, although that was when they believed compensation picks were disappearing.  Adkins’ ERA was stratospheric, that I do remember clearly.  Foulke/Koch.  Bradford was a one suded trade and featured in Moneyball but Olivo/Reed/Morse for Garcia helped to even that out eventually. 

[caulfield12]

3 minutes ago, Two-Gun Pete said:

Yes, we're in the window right now. But, I don't know if THIS FO has the ability to match wits with Oakland's. 

Ok, now don't get amped up by this, because you got amped up when I called the Kimbrel trade, "stoopid."

 

To answer your question, starting with ~3-ish fWAR 2Bman Ray Durham for a middle relief prospect Jon Adkins. To this day, Beane calls that trade, "his best trade ever."

Then the Billy Koch trade for Keith Foulke.

And of course, the Samardzjia rapeage. This one alone should have been a fireable offense.

I'm not seeing a whole lot of wins in trading with Oakland here. Do you see any sort of fair deals between these two FOs?

I don't. 

Well, no longer dealing with Beane might help…

He is the executive vice president of baseball operations and minority owner of the Oakland Athletics of Major League Baseball(MLB); he is also minority owner of Barnsley FC of the EFL Championship in England and AZ Alkmaar^[1] of the Eredivisie in the Netherlands. 

[Chicago White Sox]

1 minute ago, Two-Gun Pete said:

Yes, we're in the window right now. But, I don't knownif THIS FO has the ability to match wits with Oakland's.

Ok, now don't get amped up by this, because you got amped up when I called the Kimbrel trade, "stoopid."

But, starting with ~3-ish fWAR everyday 2Bman Ray Durham for a middle relief prospect Jon Adkins. To this day, Beane calls that trade, "his best trade ever."

Then the Billy Koch trade for Keith Foulke.

And of course, the Samardzjia rapeage. This one alone should have been a fireable offense.

I'm not seeing a whole lot of wins in trading with Oakland here. Do you see any sort of fair deals between these two FOs?

I don't. 

The Durham & Koch trades took place 20+ years ago.  I’m not sure those are very relevant, especially when Hahn was either not in the organization or his first year as assistant GM.  Also, the reason the Durham trade was bad was because KW didn’t assume they would be adding draft compensation for lost free agents that upcoming offseason rather than not getting enough for two months of Ray Durham.  As for the Foulke/Koch trade, we also got Neil Cotts back in that deal so it really wasn’t that bad in hindsight since Foulke only had one year of control left.

The Shark trade sucks simply because they missed on their self evaluation of Semien.  I don’t really care about Bassitt being included because he was an older C prospect at the time and wasn’t someone you lose sleep over trading.  The other two guys were irrelevant.

If you’re really going to hold Hahn accountable for bad KW trades though, why not mention the Swisher trade?  That’s a much worse trade than Durham & Foulke deals.

[FoxForce2]

2 hours ago, caulfield12 said:

Well, no longer dealing with Beane might help…

 

These trades are entirely a matter of Beane vs KW. Beane ate KW's lunch on a regular basis and then took away his milk money. Not dealing with the A's now and in the future based on a track record like that would be ridiculous. Entirely different dynamic at work here.
Just watch out for 'in your ear'.

Edited March 27, 2022 by FoxForce2

[caulfield12]

11 minutes ago, FoxForce2 said:

These trades are entirely a matter of Beane vs KW. Beane ate KW's lunch on a regular basis and then took away his milk money. Not dealing with the A's now and in the future based on a track record like that would be ridiculous. Entirely different dynamic at work here.
Just watch out for 'in your ear'.

Well, except for Samardzija/Semien & Bassitt.

I can see Manaea, but Montas is a bridge too far.  Just not sure why the A’s are bothering to hold onto those two, Laureano, etc.  Guess they believe they’ll get even more at the TDL with a full-scale bidding war developing.

[FoxForce2]

6 minutes ago, caulfield12 said:

Well, except for Samardzija/Semien & Bassitt.

I can see Manaea, but Montas is a bridge too far.  Just not sure why the A’s are bothering to hold onto those two, Laureano, etc.  Guess they believe they’ll get even more at the TDL with a full-scale bidding war developing.

KW was still very active in Sox trades at the time of those moves. JH was still in at least a partial understudy role at that time.
I agree on the Manaea thing , but there is still the rental angle on that. Are the Sox ready to give up significant equity to get a rental?

[CaliSoxFanViaSWside]

11 hours ago, FoxForce2 said:

KW was still very active in Sox trades at the time of those moves. JH was still in at least a partial understudy role at that time.
I agree on the Manaea thing , but there is still the rental angle on that. Are the Sox ready to give up significant equity to get a rental?

Yes they are ready to get a rental. If they can dump the Kimbrel salary and even eat $4-5M of it that frees up money for Manaea's $9.75M. Lynn was a rental in the window. This is exactly what I think they are trying to do. They need to stop pussy footing around and just rid themselves of Kimbrel as long as it frees up his money. Refusing his option would've accomplished that already.