4th best rotation?

[ChiSox59]

3 minutes ago, bmags said:

Tampa never seems hurt by any one piece.

Ok, so 2/30 teams at best.  Point remains.  

[SonofaRoache]

3 hours ago, MackowiakYakYak said:

I don’t have too much of an issue with our 5-7 being Kopech, Keuchel, and Lopez, but the complete lack of depth beyond that is worrying. What would it take to trade for a depth starter once the season starts? I can’t imagine a pure innings eater would cost all that much

5-7? Did we acquire another quality starter like we should have? 

[Quin]

For a non-us perspective, r/baseball is of the opinion that unless you're the Brewers, your depth sucks.

[Balta1701]

2 hours ago, ChiSox59 said:

Ok, so 2/30 teams at best.  Point remains.  

You're completely right that losing a top of the rotation starter will hurt any team. The next step though is - "What is the likelihood of it happening, and what does that team have available to cover it".

Let's go to our dear friends in Houston. Their rotation right now is Verlander, McCullers, Valdez, Garcia, Urquidy, Odorizzi, with Christian Javier as a 7th man, and Forrest Whitley and Hunter Brown as 2 pitching prospects who are likely to start the season at AAA. Recent callup Peter Solomon could also be a guy used for some spot starts, as could Shawn Dubin, although both of those guys long term probably wind up in the big league bullpen a couple of spot starts wouldn't be terrible. Obviously, McCullers is now hurt, which moves Odorizzi into the rotation, and Verlander is unlikely to throw a full season coming off of TJS, so Odorizzi in that 6th starter role will definitely get significant time in the rotation. Furthermore, if and when someone else goes down, there are multiple backup plans that you'd be ok with - spot starts by Javier, callups for one of the rookies if they're doing acceptably at AAA.

Compare that with the White Sox and you'll see why this is a bigger worry for Chicago. Their rotation is Lynn, Giolito, Cease, Kopech, Keuchel, with Lopez as a 6th man and 7th man options including Lambert, Velasquez, and Crochet (who may not be stretched out). Both teams have a guy who is unlikely to throw a full season, Kopech and Verlander. Both teams have a guy you might not put in an ideal rotation - Keuchel and Odorizzi. Except for the Astros, that guy is the 6th starter, for the White Sox he's the 5th. For the setup you'd expect, the 6th starters, Lopez and Odorizzi, are both going to get some rotation time - except now for the White Sox you have both Keuchel and Lopez in the rotation, whereas for the Astros they still have 4 strong starters and Odorizzi. 

And then you get to the real worry part - if someone else gets hurt, the Astros have several options, the White Sox really don't. The Astros can get spot starts from Javier and they have young guys who could give them spot starts as well with some ability. The White Sox have Lambert and...? I'm not sure. The White Sox have traded away guys like Dunning and Pilkington, and they haven't successfully drafted anyone else who has moved up. While you might very well do some deals like those again, the lack of rotation depth they cause means somewhere you need to find a player who can step in, and unless Velasquez steps up and they stretch him out - that player is not obvious from the guys currently in the White Sox's organization.

The Astros may not have the arms at the top of the rotation the White Sox have, but both teams have a guy that will need someone to cover for them, and the Astros have better solutions for when that happens and for when someone else gets hurt. 

[caulfield12]

3 hours ago, Quin said:

For a non-us perspective, r/baseball is of the opinion that unless you're the Brewers, your depth sucks.

Look at the Rays, smartly taking Drew Rasmussen from the Brewers and Luke Raley from the Astros.  They never cease to amaze.

 

For the White Sox, we already don’t know when Kopech and Kelly will pitch.

Edited March 29, 2022 by caulfield12

[zisk]

21 hours ago, bmags said:

I would assume given this insane amount of dollars in the bullpen the depth is going to come from bullpen days plus getting some innings from a lambert/mcclure/finnegan oh god sorry I started puking

I think McClure will end up a league average starter for a few years.

[Harold's Leg Lift]

There are still a number of pitchers holding out for major league deals.  These guys are going to have to settle for rminor league deals and I think the Sox will add a couple in the next few days.  

[bmags]

54 minutes ago, zisk said:

I think McClure will end up a league average starter for a few years.

I don’t buy that but I think he could be a good reliever since his height can give him a weird look on hitters.

[Texsox]

17 hours ago, Balta1701 said:

You're completely right that losing a top of the rotation starter will hurt any team. The next step though is - "What is the likelihood of it happening, and what does that team have available to cover it".

Let's go to our dear friends in Houston. Their rotation right now is Verlander, McCullers, Valdez, Garcia, Urquidy, Odorizzi, with Christian Javier as a 7th man, and Forrest Whitley and Hunter Brown as 2 pitching prospects who are likely to start the season at AAA. Recent callup Peter Solomon could also be a guy used for some spot starts, as could Shawn Dubin, although both of those guys long term probably wind up in the big league bullpen a couple of spot starts wouldn't be terrible. Obviously, McCullers is now hurt, which moves Odorizzi into the rotation, and Verlander is unlikely to throw a full season coming off of TJS, so Odorizzi in that 6th starter role will definitely get significant time in the rotation. Furthermore, if and when someone else goes down, there are multiple backup plans that you'd be ok with - spot starts by Javier, callups for one of the rookies if they're doing acceptably at AAA.

Compare that with the White Sox and you'll see why this is a bigger worry for Chicago. Their rotation is Lynn, Giolito, Cease, Kopech, Keuchel, with Lopez as a 6th man and 7th man options including Lambert, Velasquez, and Crochet (who may not be stretched out). Both teams have a guy who is unlikely to throw a full season, Kopech and Verlander. Both teams have a guy you might not put in an ideal rotation - Keuchel and Odorizzi. Except for the Astros, that guy is the 6th starter, for the White Sox he's the 5th. For the setup you'd expect, the 6th starters, Lopez and Odorizzi, are both going to get some rotation time - except now for the White Sox you have both Keuchel and Lopez in the rotation, whereas for the Astros they still have 4 strong starters and Odorizzi. 

And then you get to the real worry part - if someone else gets hurt, the Astros have several options, the White Sox really don't. The Astros can get spot starts from Javier and they have young guys who could give them spot starts as well with some ability. The White Sox have Lambert and...? I'm not sure. The White Sox have traded away guys like Dunning and Pilkington, and they haven't successfully drafted anyone else who has moved up. While you might very well do some deals like those again, the lack of rotation depth they cause means somewhere you need to find a player who can step in, and unless Velasquez steps up and they stretch him out - that player is not obvious from the guys currently in the White Sox's organization.

The Astros may not have the arms at the top of the rotation the White Sox have, but both teams have a guy that will need someone to cover for them, and the Astros have better solutions for when that happens and for when someone else gets hurt. 

I agree.

I'm also sold. I'm so much closer to Houston. I could catch a few games each summer. See my daughter and her family. I may have a new team. 

[Two-Gun Pete]

47 minutes ago, Harold's Leg Lift said:

There are still a number of pitchers holding out for major league deals.  These guys are going to have to settle for rminor league deals and I think the Sox will add a couple in the next few days.  

Any names? 

I also would have rather taken a flier on Archer at $3MM than pay Velasquez whatever they paid him.

[Balta1701]

Just now, Two-Gun Pete said:

Any names? 

I also would have rather taken a flier on Archer at $3MM than pay Velasquez whatever they paid him.

$3 million.

[Two-Gun Pete]

Just now, Balta1701 said:

$3 million.

Thanks.

I mean, I have no idea what they see/saw in Velasquez, but Archer was actually good at baseball at one time.

[SoxBlanco]

17 hours ago, Balta1701 said:

You're completely right that losing a top of the rotation starter will hurt any team. The next step though is - "What is the likelihood of it happening, and what does that team have available to cover it".

Let's go to our dear friends in Houston. Their rotation right now is Verlander, McCullers, Valdez, Garcia, Urquidy, Odorizzi, with Christian Javier as a 7th man, and Forrest Whitley and Hunter Brown as 2 pitching prospects who are likely to start the season at AAA. Recent callup Peter Solomon could also be a guy used for some spot starts, as could Shawn Dubin, although both of those guys long term probably wind up in the big league bullpen a couple of spot starts wouldn't be terrible. Obviously, McCullers is now hurt, which moves Odorizzi into the rotation, and Verlander is unlikely to throw a full season coming off of TJS, so Odorizzi in that 6th starter role will definitely get significant time in the rotation. Furthermore, if and when someone else goes down, there are multiple backup plans that you'd be ok with - spot starts by Javier, callups for one of the rookies if they're doing acceptably at AAA.

Compare that with the White Sox and you'll see why this is a bigger worry for Chicago. Their rotation is Lynn, Giolito, Cease, Kopech, Keuchel, with Lopez as a 6th man and 7th man options including Lambert, Velasquez, and Crochet (who may not be stretched out). Both teams have a guy who is unlikely to throw a full season, Kopech and Verlander. Both teams have a guy you might not put in an ideal rotation - Keuchel and Odorizzi. Except for the Astros, that guy is the 6th starter, for the White Sox he's the 5th. For the setup you'd expect, the 6th starters, Lopez and Odorizzi, are both going to get some rotation time - except now for the White Sox you have both Keuchel and Lopez in the rotation, whereas for the Astros they still have 4 strong starters and Odorizzi. 

And then you get to the real worry part - if someone else gets hurt, the Astros have several options, the White Sox really don't. The Astros can get spot starts from Javier and they have young guys who could give them spot starts as well with some ability. The White Sox have Lambert and...? I'm not sure. The White Sox have traded away guys like Dunning and Pilkington, and they haven't successfully drafted anyone else who has moved up. While you might very well do some deals like those again, the lack of rotation depth they cause means somewhere you need to find a player who can step in, and unless Velasquez steps up and they stretch him out - that player is not obvious from the guys currently in the White Sox's organization.

The Astros may not have the arms at the top of the rotation the White Sox have, but both teams have a guy that will need someone to cover for them, and the Astros have better solutions for when that happens and for when someone else gets hurt. 

For this upcoming season only, if you were given the option to trade our top 7 for Houston's top 7 right now, would you do it? (don't take age or contracts into account, unless you are using age as a reason why they might get hurt or underperform this year)

The swap would be Lynn, Giolito, Cease, Kopech, Keuchel, Lopez, Velasquez for Verlander, McCullers, Valdez, Garcia, Urquidy, Odorizzi, Javier

[Bob Sacamano]

4 minutes ago, SoxBlanco said:

For this upcoming season only, if you were given the option to trade our top 7 for Houston's top 7 right now, would you do it? (don't take age or contracts into account, unless you are using age as a reason why they might get hurt or underperform this year)

The swap would be Lynn, Giolito, Cease, Kopech, Keuchel, Lopez, Velasquez for Verlander, McCullers, Valdez, Garcia, Urquidy, Odorizzi, Javier

I don’t think I would. I like ours better at the top/middle but I like their depth options. Plus, McCullers is already hurt.

[Balta1701]

14 minutes ago, Bob Sacamano said:

I don’t think I would. I like ours better at the top/middle but I like their depth options. Plus, McCullers is already hurt.

But if Kopech can’t get started until mid April or later, does that balance it?

[Balta1701]

29 minutes ago, SoxBlanco said:

For this upcoming season only, if you were given the option to trade our top 7 for Houston's top 7 right now, would you do it? (don't take age or contracts into account, unless you are using age as a reason why they might get hurt or underperform this year)

The swap would be Lynn, Giolito, Cease, Kopech, Keuchel, Lopez, Velasquez for Verlander, McCullers, Valdez, Garcia, Urquidy, Odorizzi, Javier

It’s darned close. If I can count only top 7 narrowly white Sox because 3/4 seem better, if I can take into account the next step of depth maybe the other way?

A quick projection check has the White Sox ahead of the Astros and the difference is almost entirely covered by the fact that they have Kopech pitching more innings than McCullers.

https://www.fangraphs.com/depthcharts.aspx?position=SP

[The Grinder]

I do worry about our lack of depth in SP, as much as I hate to think about it, its likely that one of our starters will go down at least for a short while. We are the White Sox remember 

[Bob Sacamano]

19 minutes ago, Balta1701 said:

But if Kopech can’t get started until mid April or later, does that balance it?

I don’t think so. Their #2 starter is hurt and their #1 starter has thrown like 5 innings last 2 seasons combined.

[SoxBlanco]

44 minutes ago, Balta1701 said:

It’s darned close. If I can count only top 7 narrowly white Sox because 3/4 seem better, if I can take into account the next step of depth maybe the other way?

A quick projection check has the White Sox ahead of the Astros and the difference is almost entirely covered by the fact that they have Kopech pitching more innings than McCullers.

https://www.fangraphs.com/depthcharts.aspx?position=SP

I agree.  Very close, but I'm taking the White Sox also.  I also think we have a much better bullpen.  And with the loss of Correa, the lineups are fairly close (I'd probably give us the edge).

Now, I realize they have more playoff experience and kicked our ass last year, but a lot of people here have been saying the Astros have a better team this year, and I just don't think that's true.

[Bob Sacamano]

2 hours ago, Harold's Leg Lift said:

There are still a number of pitchers holding out for major league deals.  These guys are going to have to settle for rminor league deals and I think the Sox will add a couple in the next few days.  

Yeah, you'd have to think at this point those guys will get minor league deals with opt outs of like May/June at this point.

[Snopek]

Really curious to see how Lynn does this year. I keep having this annoying gut feeling that we see some pretty significant regression from him. Wouldn't exactly be a shock to see age catch up to him a bit. That said, I also wouldn't be the least bit surprised if he continues to be a workhorse and a really good SP. I guess I see him as having the widest range of outcomes among the SPs. And no, I haven't forgotten that Cease exists.

[southsider2k5]

3 hours ago, Harold's Leg Lift said:

There are still a number of pitchers holding out for major league deals.  These guys are going to have to settle for rminor league deals and I think the Sox will add a couple in the next few days.  

I wonder if they could put together an opt out date with a few of these to entice them, but still have a deadline for the player to get called up by?

Brett Anderson, Johnny Cueto, JA Happ, and Trevor Cahill are amongst the more interesting names.

[Two-Gun Pete]

2 hours ago, Balta1701 said:

It’s darned close. If I can count only top 7 narrowly white Sox because 3/4 seem better, if I can take into account the next step of depth maybe the other way?

A quick projection check has the White Sox ahead of the Astros and the difference is almost entirely covered by the fact that they have Kopech pitching more innings than McCullers.

 https://www.fangraphs.com/depthcharts.aspx?position=SP

In the rankings, they have Kopech pitching 127 IP. Kopech's FGDC projections has him at 143IP. Kopech hasn't even thrown in a game this spring training, yet we're supposed to believe this?

Meanwhile, Vince Velasquez is getting shelled. I get that its Arizona and its Spring Training, but the FO really aren't covering themselves in glory by what they've done this offseason.

[SoxBlanco]

22 minutes ago, Two-Gun Pete said:

In the rankings, they have Kopech pitching 127 IP. Kopech's FGDC projections has him at 143IP. Kopech hasn't even thrown in a game this spring training, yet we're supposed to believe this?

Assuming he does not get injured, how many innings do you expect Kopech to pitch?

[Balta1701]

10 minutes ago, SoxBlanco said:

Assuming he does not get injured, how many innings do you expect Kopech to pitch?

I’d do right in that range, 125-130.