Why the Sox should NOT trade for Sean Manaea

[VAfan]

I know Manaea is the pitcher everyone covets.  Here are a few reasons why I don't think a trade for him is a good idea.  

1. Oakland tends to fleece the Sox on this type of deal.

Anyone remember the Jeff Samardzija trade?  One year of Samardzija (and Michael Ynoa) for Marcus Semien, Chris Bassitt, Josh Phegley, and Rangel Ravelo.  Samardzija went 11-13 for the Sox in his one season, and gave up more hits than any pitcher that year.  

Lots of names have been bandied about for Manaea.  Maybe the Sox don't have another Marcus Semien or Chris Bassitt, but you can bet Oakland will do a good job picking out the best guy(s) the Sox would be open to trading, who will make one year of Manaea seem like it never happened.

2. Some of the trade ideas would rob the Sox of guys who could be very productive in 2022.

For example, Gavin Sheets' name gets offered a lot in this type of deal.  Well the Sox have no one who can come close to replacing Sheets' production against right handed pitching.  So trading him would weaken the team considerably this season (and beyond). 

Other names include Jake Burger, who doesn't have a role unless Yoan Moncada gets hurt, and then would likely be the replacement.  The Sox used several of these kinds of guys in 2021 to keep it together when we lost players to injury.  If we weaken our AAA ready depth in a trade, it could have consequences. 

3. Manaea is on a one-year $9.75 million deal.  He's not cheap.

Are the Sox ready to add another $10M to this year's payroll?  Because Oakland isn't going to want anyone in return who would save the Sox money.  

4. Manaea is a free agent next year, with Scott Boras as his agent. 

What are the odds the Sox would extend Manaea after this year?  They seem very slim to me.  Boras will want to make Manaea the highest paid Sox pitcher, when he's no better than their 4th best.  The Sox need to be spending that money extending or trying to extend Lucas Giolito, not Sean Manaea.

5. Manaea isn't that great of a pitcher.

He did give the A's 32 starts and 179 innings.  But is ERA was 3.91.  That's Dylan Cease, who has much more upside.  

On the Sox, Manaea would be their 5th best starter, behind Lynn, Giolito, Cease, and Kopech.  He'd provide a lot more innings than Kopech, but no one thinks he's a better pitcher.  

He'd be a positive for sure, especially compared to Keuchel.  But let's not pretend we're adding a TOR guy here.  

6.  As the Sox 5th best starter, he'd help during the regular season, but not so much in the playoffs.

Do the Sox really need a lot more pitching to reach the playoffs?  Manaea would be a positive, and better than Dallas Keuchel, but it's not clear that he's essential or that much of a difference maker.  The Sox should be able to win their division given their lineup and top pitchers.  

7.  What do you do with Dallas Keuchel?

Keuchel probably has next to no trade value at this point, and it's unlikely any team would even take him on without the Sox covering most of his contract.  But if you added Manaea, someone would have to go, and Keuchel is the most logical choice.  Do the Sox just cut him?   If you don't get some salary relief, then adding Manaea's contract pushes the Sox every closer to the luxury tax.  

Keuchel was a quality pitcher as recently as 2020, getting Cy Young votes that year.   He may get shelled, as he was in Oakland yesterday.  But he also got hit but not hurt by the Dodgers in his previous outing.   Can he pitch to a .500 record?   If so, then the difference between him and Manaea is not enough to surrender much in trade. 

Conclusion

I'd support the trade, but only if the return to Oakland is for a deep prospect or two in the Sox system who isn't likely to be ready during the Sox 2022-23 "window."   I expect Oakland will want more than that.  

[southsider2k5]

#1 is terrible.  If you're scared, get a dog.

[Chick Mercedes]

^^^^Its not terrible to be scared if Rick Hahn is pulling the trigger on a prospects deal.

Edited April 2, 2022 by Chick Mercedes

[CentralChamps21]

5 minutes ago, VAfan said:

5. Manaea isn't that great of a pitcher.

He did give the A's 32 starts and 179 innings.  But is ERA was 3.91.  That's Dylan Cease, who has much more upside.  

On the Sox, Manaea would be their 5th best starter, behind Lynn, Giolito, Cease, and Kopech.  He'd provide a lot more innings than Kopech, but no one thinks he's a better pitcher.  

He'd be a positive for sure, especially compared to Keuchel.  But let's not pretend we're adding a TOR guy here.   

7.  What do you do with Dallas Keuchel?

Keuchel probably has next to no trade value at this point, and it's unlikely any team would even take him on without the Sox covering most of his contract.  But if you added Manaea, someone would have to go, and Keuchel is the most logical choice.  Do the Sox just cut him?   If you don't get some salary relief, then adding Manaea's contract pushes the Sox every closer to the luxury tax.  

Keuchel was a quality pitcher as recently as 2020, getting Cy Young votes that year.   He may get shelled, as he was in Oakland yesterday.  But he also got hit but not hurt by the Dodgers in his previous outing.   Can he pitch to a .500 record?   If so, then the difference between him and Manaea is not enough to surrender much in trade. 

 

You just made a wonderful argument that Manaea is a huge upgrade over Keuchel, and what you do with Keuchel is let him do mop up duty. There's a special term for teams whose 5th best pitcher is as good as Sean Manaea: World Series Contenders

[ShoeLessRob]

GTFO

[ChiSoxFanMike]

Well thought out thread. The argument points are dumb, but at least you put effort into it.

[Lillian]

I agree with the assertion that Manaea would not likely be part of the Sox post season rotation, if he were acquired. By contrast, if Hahn could acquire a pitcher who not only provides depth to the rotation, but would also be a strong candidate to be part of that playoff rotation, that would be much more valuable. Whether we agree, or not, it does appear that the Sox are all in on this season. Given the ages of both Mr. Reinsdorf and La Russa, it shouldn't be a surprise that the Sox are much less concerned about extending the window, than they are about committing to winning now. 

In a previous post today, I mentioned that the best prospect trade chip in the organization is probably Vaughn. He has the best pedigree and enough years of control, to entice a rebuilding team. As much as we like him and his potential, he is not presently needed and in fact, will really be challenged to find at bats, on this current roster. Vaughn is probably the one expendable young position player who could net an impact starter. Who are the best possible matches for a trade of Vaughn, in return for a #2 or 3 starter, with at least 2 years of control? In other words, who else, might be acquired, besides the oft-mentioned Manaea?

[vilehoopster]

1 hour ago, YouCanPutItOnTheBoardYES! said:

Well thought out thread. The argument points are dumb, but at least you put effort into it.

 

I disagree. I think he makes some very good points, except for # 5. 

 

My biggest fear is his reason # 2, we could be giving up players who could be very productive for a long time (Burger and Sheets) for what is clearly a one-year rental. 

 

With that said, make the trade. 

[Tnetennba]

None of those bullet points are reason enough to not acquire another starter, especially a solid lefty on an affordable deal.  Add them all together and it still means fuck-all when Keuchel is getting shelled every 5th day, and Kopech is only going 3-4 innings per start.  As SS2K said above, if you're scared, get a dog.

[SoxBlanco]

The argument here is kind of silly because it all depends on the price. If we give up Vaughn (which we won’t), then I would agree with all of the bullet points. But if we don’t have to give up much, then the bullet points are dumb. So basically, until we see the return, there’s no point in discussing whether the trade is a good idea. 

[southsider2k5]

Definitely agree it depends on return, but the bottom line is that Maenea would be a large improvement over what Dallas has show since the crack down on sticky stuff last year.  As long as you aren't sacrificing a true future star here, or someone vital to 2022, that is the most important thing to me.

[caulfield12]

4 hours ago, VAfan said:

I know Manaea is the pitcher everyone covets.  Here are a few reasons why I don't think a trade for him is a good idea.  

1. Oakland tends to fleece the Sox on this type of deal.

Anyone remember the Jeff Samardzija trade?  One year of Samardzija (and Michael Ynoa) for Marcus Semien, Chris Bassitt, Josh Phegley, and Rangel Ravelo.  Samardzija went 11-13 for the Sox in his one season, and gave up more hits than any pitcher that year.  

Lots of names have been bandied about for Manaea.  Maybe the Sox don't have another Marcus Semien or Chris Bassitt, but you can bet Oakland will do a good job picking out the best guy(s) the Sox would be open to trading, who will make one year of Manaea seem like it never happened.

2. Some of the trade ideas would rob the Sox of guys who could be very productive in 2022.

For example, Gavin Sheets' name gets offered a lot in this type of deal.  Well the Sox have no one who can come close to replacing Sheets' production against right handed pitching.  So trading him would weaken the team considerably this season (and beyond). 

Other names include Jake Burger, who doesn't have a role unless Yoan Moncada gets hurt, and then would likely be the replacement.  The Sox used several of these kinds of guys in 2021 to keep it together when we lost players to injury.  If we weaken our AAA ready depth in a trade, it could have consequences. 

3. Manaea is on a one-year $9.75 million deal.  He's not cheap.

Are the Sox ready to add another $10M to this year's payroll?  Because Oakland isn't going to want anyone in return who would save the Sox money.  

4. Manaea is a free agent next year, with Scott Boras as his agent. 

What are the odds the Sox would extend Manaea after this year?  They seem very slim to me.  Boras will want to make Manaea the highest paid Sox pitcher, when he's no better than their 4th best.  The Sox need to be spending that money extending or trying to extend Lucas Giolito, not Sean Manaea.

5. Manaea isn't that great of a pitcher.

He did give the A's 32 starts and 179 innings.  But is ERA was 3.91.  That's Dylan Cease, who has much more upside.  

On the Sox, Manaea would be their 5th best starter, behind Lynn, Giolito, Cease, and Kopech.  He'd provide a lot more innings than Kopech, but no one thinks he's a better pitcher.  

He'd be a positive for sure, especially compared to Keuchel.  But let's not pretend we're adding a TOR guy here.  

6.  As the Sox 5th best starter, he'd help during the regular season, but not so much in the playoffs.

Do the Sox really need a lot more pitching to reach the playoffs?  Manaea would be a positive, and better than Dallas Keuchel, but it's not clear that he's essential or that much of a difference maker.  The Sox should be able to win their division given their lineup and top pitchers.  

7.  What do you do with Dallas Keuchel?

Keuchel probably has next to no trade value at this point, and it's unlikely any team would even take him on without the Sox covering most of his contract.  But if you added Manaea, someone would have to go, and Keuchel is the most logical choice.  Do the Sox just cut him?   If you don't get some salary relief, then adding Manaea's contract pushes the Sox every closer to the luxury tax.  

Keuchel was a quality pitcher as recently as 2020, getting Cy Young votes that year.   He may get shelled, as he was in Oakland yesterday.  But he also got hit but not hurt by the Dodgers in his previous outing.   Can he pitch to a .500 record?   If so, then the difference between him and Manaea is not enough to surrender much in trade. 

Conclusion

I'd support the trade, but only if the return to Oakland is for a deep prospect or two in the Sox system who isn't likely to be ready during the Sox 2022-23 "window."   I expect Oakland will want more than that.  

You are Mr. Optimistic.  Except for the Shark trade, all the controversial moves with the A's are more related to the Moneyball Era and KW/Beane.

Shouldn't you now be more confident in your different GM pulling off a trade with the A's (different GM) more than half a decade later?

You don't need a support animal, so be brave!

Also, stop making evaluations on Sheets based on the most favorable matchups.  I'm not saying he goes and does the Palka Polka off the stage, but Dayan Viciedo playing everyday after warning everyone not to get too excited is instructive here.  Maybe the LHedness saves him from a trade in favor of Burger or Vaughn, but you also need to know when is the right time to sell high on an asset and when to hold (Vaughn/Jimenez).

Edited April 2, 2022 by caulfield12

[ChiSox59]

Im all for acquiring Manaea for the right price. But most of deals discussed here are overpays imo. Manaea is solid but unspectacular, especially for just 1 market value season. 

[Chicago White Sox]

@VAfan - Still feel like we shouldn’t trade for Manaea?

[GREEDY]

Love the contrarian view effort.

My take?

It has to be unlikely that this gets done because virtually every team in baseball *could* use Manaea at worst as a swing man.  That has be driving the price to the maximum.  

Also, any time you deal for a vet on an expiring contract you get *some* value in acquiring a year to win them over and possibly extend them to a team friendly deal (see Lynn), but that is very unlikely in this deal.

I was excited about the possibility because Manaea has that next level in him.   He has show the ability to be dominant.  He just feels like a guy who could get hot and carry a team in October.  I think the price would make me vomit though.  

[A-Train to 35th]

21 hours ago, VAfan said:

I know Manaea is the pitcher everyone covets.  Here are a few reasons why I don't think a trade for him is a good idea.  

1. Oakland tends to fleece the Sox on this type of deal.

Anyone remember the Jeff Samardzija trade?  One year of Samardzija (and Michael Ynoa) for Marcus Semien, Chris Bassitt, Josh Phegley, and Rangel Ravelo.  Samardzija went 11-13 for the Sox in his one season, and gave up more hits than any pitcher that year.  

Lots of names have been bandied about for Manaea.  Maybe the Sox don't have another Marcus Semien or Chris Bassitt, but you can bet Oakland will do a good job picking out the best guy(s) the Sox would be open to trading, who will make one year of Manaea seem like it never happened.

2. Some of the trade ideas would rob the Sox of guys who could be very productive in 2022.

For example, Gavin Sheets' name gets offered a lot in this type of deal.  Well the Sox have no one who can come close to replacing Sheets' production against right handed pitching.  So trading him would weaken the team considerably this season (and beyond). 

Other names include Jake Burger, who doesn't have a role unless Yoan Moncada gets hurt, and then would likely be the replacement.  The Sox used several of these kinds of guys in 2021 to keep it together when we lost players to injury.  If we weaken our AAA ready depth in a trade, it could have consequences. 

3. Manaea is on a one-year $9.75 million deal.  He's not cheap.

Are the Sox ready to add another $10M to this year's payroll?  Because Oakland isn't going to want anyone in return who would save the Sox money.  

4. Manaea is a free agent next year, with Scott Boras as his agent. 

What are the odds the Sox would extend Manaea after this year?  They seem very slim to me.  Boras will want to make Manaea the highest paid Sox pitcher, when he's no better than their 4th best.  The Sox need to be spending that money extending or trying to extend Lucas Giolito, not Sean Manaea.

5. Manaea isn't that great of a pitcher.

He did give the A's 32 starts and 179 innings.  But is ERA was 3.91.  That's Dylan Cease, who has much more upside.  

On the Sox, Manaea would be their 5th best starter, behind Lynn, Giolito, Cease, and Kopech.  He'd provide a lot more innings than Kopech, but no one thinks he's a better pitcher.  

He'd be a positive for sure, especially compared to Keuchel.  But let's not pretend we're adding a TOR guy here.  

6.  As the Sox 5th best starter, he'd help during the regular season, but not so much in the playoffs.

Do the Sox really need a lot more pitching to reach the playoffs?  Manaea would be a positive, and better than Dallas Keuchel, but it's not clear that he's essential or that much of a difference maker.  The Sox should be able to win their division given their lineup and top pitchers.  

7.  What do you do with Dallas Keuchel?

Keuchel probably has next to no trade value at this point, and it's unlikely any team would even take him on without the Sox covering most of his contract.  But if you added Manaea, someone would have to go, and Keuchel is the most logical choice.  Do the Sox just cut him?   If you don't get some salary relief, then adding Manaea's contract pushes the Sox every closer to the luxury tax.  

Keuchel was a quality pitcher as recently as 2020, getting Cy Young votes that year.   He may get shelled, as he was in Oakland yesterday.  But he also got hit but not hurt by the Dodgers in his previous outing.   Can he pitch to a .500 record?   If so, then the difference between him and Manaea is not enough to surrender much in trade. 

Conclusion

I'd support the trade, but only if the return to Oakland is for a deep prospect or two in the Sox system who isn't likely to be ready during the Sox 2022-23 "window."   I expect Oakland will want more than that.  

Until Kopeck actually starts a game and goes more than 5 innings I will not consider him a starting pitcher.  To say he's better than Manaea is pure speculation.

I'm a South Sider who say's "show me first" before I'll believe in all the Kopech hype.

[southsider2k5]

 

[southsider2k5]

 

[Y2Jimmy0]

1 minute ago, southsider2k5 said:

 

There's a report that the Yankees have scratched Clarke Schmidt. If that's the piece for a potential Sean Manaea trade, the White Sox do not have an equivalent. 

[GreenSox]

He's an average pitcher, and the price will be steep.  The Sox may have to make a trade for a SP while the market favors sellers, but they don't have to do it now, and they don't have to do it with the As.  So wait.

[caulfield12]

1 minute ago, GreenSox said:

He's an average pitcher, and the price will be steep.  The Sox may have to make a trade for a SP while the market favors sellers, but they don't have to do it now, and they don't have to do it with the As.  So wait.

For now, they can and likely will get through April with Lopez and Velasquez.  An Arrieta or Matt Harvey signing is next, lol.

[poppysox]

8 minutes ago, caulfield12 said:

For now, they can and likely will get through April with Lopez and Velasquez.  An Arrieta or Matt Harvey signing is next, lol.

I would be giving Lopez every chance to win the job.

[Look at Ray Ray Run]

15 minutes ago, Y2Jimmy0 said:

There's a report that the Yankees have scratched Clarke Schmidt. If that's the piece for a potential Sean Manaea trade, the White Sox do not have an equivalent. 

Hes still pitching today, just not starting. 

[Y2Jimmy0]

Just now, Look at Ray Ray Run said:

Hes still pitching today, just not starting. 

Okay cool. Thanks 

[bmags]

Really the first post should have said “he’s kind of a boring pitcher.” And that is true