Cueto to Sox (Official)

[ptatc]

Just now, JUSTgottaBELIEVE said:

I guess. I still remember Adam Wainwright went down with TJS in early 2011.

His final stat line for 2012 season at age 30:

32 GS, 198.2 IP, 3.94 ERA

the next season (2013), he finished second in cy young voting (241.2 IP) and then third the season after that (227 IP). Sometimes we baby these guys too much…

They are babied too much once they get to a full workload. But they need to get there first. Kopech couldn't handle the workload they gave him last year without going on the injured list.

[Balta1701]

1 minute ago, JUSTgottaBELIEVE said:

I guess. I still remember Adam Wainwright went down with TJS in early 2011.

His final stat line for 2012 season at age 30:

32 GS, 198.2 IP, 3.94 ERA

the next season (2013), he finished second in cy young voting (241.2 IP) and then third the season after that (227 IP). Sometimes we baby these guys too much…

That was after he threw 463 innings in 2009-2010.

And the average fastball is significantly harder than what was thrown at that time. Wainwright was throwing 91-91.6 those 2 years. Want to bet Kopech will be higher?

[JUSTgottaBELIEVE]

Just now, ptatc said:

They are babied too much once they get to a full workload. But they need to get there first. Kopech couldn't handle the workload they gave him last year without going on the injured list.

Don’t know until you try. Let’s see if he can make it to 100 first and how he looks at that time. If he still looks strong, why put a hard cap at 120?

[CaliSoxFanViaSWside]

16 minutes ago, ptatc said:

Hiw about any if the 80 or pitchers who pitched 150 innings or more? Doesn't have to be specific.  Nobody with an significant injury history last year. If you really have have a name to blame someone, I'll take Manaea because he was avaliable and pitched 150 innings.

 

I'm not sure why you are dragging this out. We basically agree on everything except that Rodon should be the additional pitchers on this team. I would not have taken the chance on his injury history with that contract.

I would literally take nearly anyone with the qualifications I described.

I'm dragging it out because and frankly it takes 2 to drag it out, because if you literally would've taken anyone else except Rodon of course since he didn't pitch 150 innings, the Sox also failed to do that and Rodon has the possibility to be better than all those guys. I'll take the possibility he could be an ace and pitch like an ace in the playoffs over some innings eater 3-5 guy  just to rest Gio, Lynn and Cease move. The BP plan the Sox put together is already disintegrating so as of now looks like it's Crick, Burr, Ruiz, Sousa, Banks Cueto , Lopez and Keuchel to the rescue while any plans for the rotation all went belly up. That's only half the pitchers the Sox are using in April !

Edited April 6, 2022 by CaliSoxFanViaSWside

[JUSTgottaBELIEVE]

1 minute ago, Balta1701 said:

That was after he threw 463 innings in 2009-2010.

And the average fastball is significantly harder than what was thrown at that time. Wainwright was throwing 91-91.6 those 2 years. Want to bet Kopech will be higher?

Adam missed an entire season and was one year removed from TJS. Who cares what he did in 2009/2010. Adam was also several years older than Kopech when he had the surgery. No need to baby Kopech. He should be able to give 135-150 innings this year (including playoffs) imo

 

[ptatc]

1 minute ago, CaliSoxFanViaSWside said:

I'm dragging it out because and frankly it takes 2 to drag it out, because if you literally would've taken anyone else except Rodon of course since he didn't pitch 150 innings, the Sox also failed to do that and Rodon has the possibility to be better than all those guys. I'll take the possibility he could be an ace and pitch like an ace in the playoffs over some innings eater 3-5 guy getting just to rest the Gio, Lynn and Cease more. The BP plan the Sox put together is already disintegrating so as of now looks like it's Crick, Burr, Ruiz, Sousa, Banks Cueto , Lopez and Keuchel to the rescue while any plans for the rotation all went belly up.

Again. We agree they didn't upgrade the pitching like they should have.

I know you would take the possibility an oft injured player who could possibly be an ace over a bottom of the rotation starter.

I just go the other way and use the extra resources elsewhere as I don't think they need another TOR guy.

Of course you would always take the best player everywhere with unlimited resources. Bit we know that's not the case here.

[ptatc]

3 minutes ago, JUSTgottaBELIEVE said:

Adam missed an entire season and was one year removed from TJS. Who cares what he did in 2009/2010. Adam was also several years older than Kopech when he had the surgery. No need to baby Kopech. He should be able to give 135-150 innings this year (including playoffs) imo

 

The 2009 and 2010 make a difference fir how fast you can build up innings. If there was a previous base it's easier to build upon. 

This is why Crochet was different than Sale. Sale started for years in college and built up innings. Crochet was never a starter in college and never had the innings base.

[CaliSoxFanViaSWside]

12 minutes ago, JUSTgottaBELIEVE said:

I guess. I still remember Adam Wainwright went down with TJS in early 2011.

His final stat line for 2012 season at age 30:

32 GS, 198.2 IP, 3.94 ERA

the next season (2013), he finished second in cy young voting (241.2 IP) and then third the season after that (227 IP). Sometimes we baby these guys too much…

Wainwright still had years of experience dealing with MLB hitters under his belt as a SP while Kopech has 0.

[JUSTgottaBELIEVE]

3 minutes ago, ptatc said:

The 2009 and 2010 make a difference fir how fast you can build up innings. If there was a previous base it's easier to build upon. 

This is why Crochet was different than Sale. Sale started for years in college and built up innings. Crochet was never a starter in college and never had the innings base.

Weird. I pitched through high school and college. If I had a year off due to injury to my throwing arm, I’m having a hard time understanding why a base built up prior to the severe injury mattered much. Any time I had a long layoff, I felt like I was back t building up from square one.

[JUSTgottaBELIEVE]

5 minutes ago, CaliSoxFanViaSWside said:

Wainwright still had years of experience dealing with MLB hitters under his belt as a SP while Kopech has 0.

Kopech has been a professional for 8 years now. He has parts of two seasons facing big league hitters. Not sure why it matters how much mlb experience he has when determining an innings limit. He’s 26. He’s not a baby faced rookie any longer.

[ptatc]

6 minutes ago, JUSTgottaBELIEVE said:

Weird. I pitched through high school and college. If I had a year off due to injury to my throwing arm, I’m having a hard time understanding why a base built up prior to the severe injury mattered much. Any time I had a long layoff, I felt like I was back t building up from square one.

It does matter. Previous muscle capacity makes it easier. Granted you still wouldn't go from 30 innings to 200 but it makes the transition easier.

[quickman]

19 hours ago, Look at Ray Ray Run said:

I'll say this too, if it wasn't clear, I don't care what anyone posts. If someone wants to post that joe Crede wasn't the greatest 3rd baseman in MLB history, they can do that. They'll be wrong, and completely ignorant worthy of immense disdain and hatred, but they're free to express that blasphemes opinion 

personally, I come from another Era, Brooks Robinson, George Brett, Sal Bando, Mike Schmidt, chipper Jones I can probably name 5 more. Maybe Crede was the best in a whitesox Uniform in decades, but no chance is he one of the best of all times. SORRY if this was a joke and I didnt catch on. 

[quickman]

Personally, i think these past few years have baseball execs doing some different things , Gone are the 200 inning pitchers and in are the 150 inning pitchers, depth bullpen and soon to be 6 starters. Now a team needs 7 -8 deep in starters throughout the year and if you dont have depth in the minors that means carrying journeymen guys as your 5,6,7 guys in long relief or short cheap contracts to get you through a season unless you have yankee, dodger or Met money. 

[ptatc]

1 minute ago, quickman said:

Personally, i think these past few years have baseball execs doing some different things , Gone are the 200 inning pitchers and in are the 150 inning pitchers, depth bullpen and soon to be 6 starters. Now a team needs 7 -8 deep in starters throughout the year and if you dont have depth in the minors that means carrying journeymen guys as your 5,6,7 guys in long relief or short cheap contracts to get you through a season unless you have yankee, dodger or Met money. 

It's all to do with the emphasis on velocity and strikeouts. I don't think the 6 man rotation is coming but the emphasis on the bullpen and minor league depth is going to increase in importance.

[CaliSoxFanViaSWside]

14 minutes ago, JUSTgottaBELIEVE said:

Kopech has been a professional for 8 years now. He has parts of two seasons facing big league hitters. Not sure why it matters how much mlb experience he has when determining an innings limit. He’s 26. He’s not a baby faced rookie any longer.

Look you have a CPT telling you the same thing I'm telling you. It's your choice to believe us or not. You arm has to be conditioned to throw a lot of innings and you have to be better than you were in the minors. Talent alone will not get you past MLB hitters. Experience dealing with the length and stress of an MLB season means something.

[JUSTgottaBELIEVE]

1 hour ago, CaliSoxFanViaSWside said:

Look you have a CPT telling you the same thing I'm telling you. It's your choice to believe us or not. You arm has to be conditioned to throw a lot of innings and you have to be better than you were in the minors. Talent alone will not get you past MLB hitters. Experience dealing with the length and stress of an MLB season means something.

If innings prior to the injury matter that much then Kopech threw 134 innings in 2017 and 141 innings in 2018. I’m not following the logic as to why he couldn’t do that again this season. What’s so special about 120 innings? For reference, Rodon threw 86, 139, 35, and 8 innings in 2017 thru 2020 (including minor leagues). Kopech missed two years due to TJS and Covid and he still threw more innings than Rodon between 2017 and 2020 lol

[Balta1701]

15 minutes ago, JUSTgottaBELIEVE said:

If innings prior to the injury matter that much then Kopech threw 134 innings in 2017 and 141 innings in 2018. I’m not following the logic as to why he couldn’t do that again this season. What’s so special about 120 innings? For reference, Rodon threw 86, 139, 35, and 8 innings in 2017 thru 2020 (including minor leagues). Kopech missed two years due to TJS and Covid and he still threw more innings than Rodon between 2017 and 2020 lol

So Rodon threw 138 innings in 2018, had basically 2 years off, then hit a brick wall when he was pushed to 130 in 2021.

Kopech threw 140 innings also in 2018, had 2 full years off followed by one in the bullpen where he was still underused, and you're thinking this tells you that he's ready for a much bigger innings inflation?

It seems like you've made the case that Kopech's arm is potentially even less conditioned than Rodon's was last year.

[JUSTgottaBELIEVE]

40 minutes ago, Balta1701 said:

So Rodon threw 138 innings in 2018, had basically 2 years off, then hit a brick wall when he was pushed to 130 in 2021.

Kopech threw 140 innings also in 2018, had 2 full years off followed by one in the bullpen where he was still underused, and you're thinking this tells you that he's ready for a much bigger innings inflation?

It seems like you've made the case that Kopech's arm is potentially even less conditioned than Rodon's was last year.

I’m making the case that Kopech’s arm is at least as conditioned as Rodon’s arm was last season. Which is why I’m expecting a minimum of 135 innings from Kopech this season but being told he is likely restricted to 120 innings. I don’t agree with that low of a restriction. He’s younger and been healthier than Rodon over the past five years. No reason he can’t do what Rodon did in terms of workload this season.

[gogosox1959]

7 minutes ago, JUSTgottaBELIEVE said:

I’m making the case that Kopech’s arm is at least as conditioned as Rodon’s arm was last season. Which is why I’m expecting a minimum of 135 innings from Kopech this season but being told he is likely restricted to 120 innings. I don’t agree with that low of a restriction. He’s younger and been healthier than Rodon over the past five years. No reason he can’t do what Rodon did in terms of workload this season.

Maybe 120 regular season + 20 in post-season.  o:)

[CaliSoxFanViaSWside]

14 minutes ago, JUSTgottaBELIEVE said:

I’m making the case that Kopech’s arm is at least as conditioned as Rodon’s arm was last season. Which is why I’m expecting a minimum of 135 innings from Kopech this season but being told he is likely restricted to 120 innings. I don’t agree with that low of a restriction. He’s younger and been healthier than Rodon over the past five years. No reason he can’t do what Rodon did in terms of workload this season.

And Rodon fizzled after mid july so if Kopech wants to do it the Sox have to do a better job, a much better job than they did with Rodon. You do want him available for the playoffs at his best don't you ? 36 of Rodon's total innings came after mid July so if u want Kopech to pitch a full season and the playoff maybe he's restricted to only 75 innings during the season. If you push him up to 100 IP by the All Star break you're risking his arm for the playoffs. If you are counting on his youth to give him more thats just a mistake. You have to allow for the fact that despite his youth it still may be to much for him.

Edited April 6, 2022 by CaliSoxFanViaSWside

[CaliSoxFanViaSWside]

1 hour ago, Balta1701 said:

So Rodon threw 138 innings in 2018, had basically 2 years off, then hit a brick wall when he was pushed to 130 in 2021.

Kopech threw 140 innings also in 2018, had 2 full years off followed by one in the bullpen where he was still underused, and you're thinking this tells you that he's ready for a much bigger innings inflation?

It seems like you've made the case that Kopech's arm is potentially even less conditioned than Rodon's was last year.

He actually hit a brick wall starting at around 100 innings. Compare his starts after mid July to the ones after.

He started 18 games before mid july 10 of those 18 he went at least 6 innings 10 times after that not a single start over 5 innings and I haven't even counted the 13.2 innings he did in ST in 2021.

Edited April 6, 2022 by CaliSoxFanViaSWside

[JUSTgottaBELIEVE]

49 minutes ago, CaliSoxFanViaSWside said:

And Rodon fizzled after mid july so if Kopech wants to do it the Sox have to do a better job, a much better job than they did with Rodon. You do want him available for the playoffs at his best don't you ? 36 of Rodon's total innings came after mid July so if u want Kopech to pitch a full season and the playoff maybe he's restricted to only 75 innings during the season. If you push him up to 100 IP by the All Star break you're risking his arm for the playoffs. If you are counting on his youth to give him more thats just a mistake. You have to allow for the fact that despite his youth it still may be to much for him.

My minimum expectation for Kopech this regular season is 25 starts, 5 innings per start on average, which would amount to 125 innings. I think that’s a very reasonable minimum expectation.

[CaliSoxFanViaSWside]

36 minutes ago, JUSTgottaBELIEVE said:

My minimum expectation for Kopech this regular season is 25 starts, 5 innings per start on average, which would amount to 125 innings. I think that’s a very reasonable minimum expectation.

Ok we'll see but if Covid slows him down at all or the late start to spring training it might take him till May to make a start that lasts as long as 5 innings. Maybe that helps him towards the end of the season. He was all over the place in his last ST start and only threw 4 innings in both starts combined so he isn't close to going 5 yet effectively.

[JUSTgottaBELIEVE]

27 minutes ago, CaliSoxFanViaSWside said:

Ok we'll see but if Covid slows him down at all or the late start to spring training it might take him till May to make a start that lasts as long as 5 innings. Maybe that helps him towards the end of the season. He was all over the place in his last ST start and only threw 4 innings in both starts combined so he isn't close to going 5 yet effectively.

I’d be willing to bet that he has a 5+ inning outing this month. I agree he may have some 3-4 inning outings but I’d bet he has one dominant start where he goes 7+ innings in April. We’ll see.

[CaliSoxFanViaSWside]

6 minutes ago, JUSTgottaBELIEVE said:

I’d be willing to bet that he has a 5+ inning outing this month. I agree he may have some 3-4 inning outings but I’d bet he has one dominant start where he goes 7+ innings in April. We’ll see.

I dont think they let him ever go 7 innings until the 2nd half.  ARe you talking about 7 full innings or 6+ ? If he goes 7 innings in April you better pray the Sox don't treat him like Rodon and burn his arm out by mid July. 10 of Rodons 1st 18 starts were 6 or more innings including his 9 inning no hitter. If you count ST he pitched about 114 inning before July 18th when he started to slow down and go less innings and become less effective.

You had better hope they ramp up Kopech slow and never let him go beyond 5 in the 1st half unless his pitch count is super low after 5 innings.

Edited April 6, 2022 by CaliSoxFanViaSWside