Cueto to Sox (Official)

[caulfield12]

3 minutes ago, Look at Ray Ray Run said:

So the money isn't a part of the budget? Having a hard time following here.

The Sox offered someone 4.2 million dollars to play. While the 4.2 million isn't guarnteed, there's a non-zero chance they pay out about 4 million of it. When building budgets out, you're not ignoring a value because it might not be paid. It's a part of the total cost until it's not; that's how that works. So they clearly had 4 million to offer to someone, and they chose someone who it's not gauranteed too but still potentially being paid to.

The fact that there's a safety valve that says if he sucks, we don't pay it, doesn't take away from the fact that it was a part of your budget when you offered it. The money had to be there to offer it.

Just look at it as a buffer investment in preventing Keuchel from reaching his innings target where another $18 million salary kicks in. 

I highly doubt Hahn was ever planning on paying THAT out in 2023. 

[bmags]

This is why I really wanted a guy like mchugh who can be in either role well. Just a 2/$10 deal from ATL, who have just been incredible in contracts (and sometimes predatory)

[ptatc]

5 minutes ago, Look at Ray Ray Run said:

So the money isn't a part of the budget? Having a hard time following here.

The Sox offered someone 4.2 million dollars to play. While the 4.2 million isn't guarnteed, there's a non-zero chance they pay out about 4 million of it. When building budgets out, you're not ignoring a value because it might not be paid. It's a part of the total cost until it's not; that's how that works. So they clearly had 4 million to offer to someone, and they chose someone who it's not gauranteed too but still potentially being paid to.

The fact that there's a safety valve that says if he sucks, we don't pay it, doesn't take away from the fact that it was a part of your budget when you offered it. The money had to be there to offer it.

Budget allotment consists of what the expected expense is. It's a 4.2 mil contract. If it's true he won't be ready until May that's 1/6 of the season he will be missing. So even if stays on the roster for the rest if the year that's a max of 3.5. So the budgeted money starts there max. If they think he won't be there after Lynn returns they budget even less.

[Balta1701]

5 minutes ago, ChiSox59 said:

Not sure I agree with this. Seeing as though Cueto can’t help until at least early May, we still need someone to cover a rotation spot thru April. Don’t expect anyone exciting, but someone to help in meantime is still needed. 

I’m going to guess he gets 2, maybe 3 minor league outings and then is up by April 15-20. You’d probably be ok with 3-4 innings in his first big league outing.

One Offday or Lopez start or rainout buys that much time.

[caulfield12]

1 minute ago, bmags said:

This is why I really wanted a guy like mchugh who can be in either role well. Just a 2/$10 deal from ATL, who have just been incredible in contracts (and sometimes predatory)

Except he always had that preference to stay close to home... plus joining a WS winning team.  Would have arguably cost the Sox $12-15 million to change his mind, and ATL might have upped their offer in response.   

[he gone.]

Positives: In terms of guys you can acquire 2 days before the season starts & for relatively free money? I'll take it. He's got a rested arm - since 2017 he's topped out at 147ip. He barely threw  in 2018, 2019, 2020 before pitching 22 games last year. If you want to be positive you're getting a former Ace/All-Star who, if healthy, can probably give you $7-10mm production as a #5. In a perfect world he's worth every cent of the deal.  He's not a guy who walks people. Stays out of trouble in that sense. no free passes. should be a guy who can slot right in and fit in with this team and bring experience. His fastball and changeup are still relatively strong, particularly his fastball.

Negatives: He's not the guy he used to be. His FIP has been over 4-5 since 2018. He hasn't been healthy in half a decade. He ranks near the bottom quadrant in CSW, xwOBA, etc. His slider is absolute trash. He threw it 22% of the time in 2021. His CSW on slider was almost dead last out of all pitchers ... like ... it's TRASH. hang a slider on the southside during the summer and the people in LF bleachers will be shagging opposing homers all day. The chances of him lasting more than 100ip are minimal. At least with Keuchel we know we can get 160ip of this type of ball. He absolutely does not fill the absolutely pressing need of a TOR type of arm for playoffs. 

Overall: Based on timing + sudden need after Lynn? B-. Based on the whole off-season? D-. I'd say maybe Katz can fix that slider or sees something ... but like ... he was cueto's pitching coach in SF already in 2020 and that was among Cueto's worst year ever. He shouldn't be throwing that slider, but unfortunately then what does he throw? The Sox don't have the farm system to compete on top arms that are needed. aka, playoff impact arms. I don't care how you look at Kimbrel, but he had the pedigree to be an imposing playoff arm (i mean, the dodgers, the best team in baseball said why not? and slotted him right in as closer). You also lost Crochet. You lost Rodon. So far we've replaced with Vince + Cueto + Graveman + Kelly. Doesn't add up. Off-season is when you could address the need via the pocketbook. Now you're going to be forced to overpay in season for guys like Castillo bidding against other teams with your already thin farm system. Absolute disaster. There's no chance Cueto is an impact arm to where he makes a playoff roster. The sox had the perfect setup with cheaper contracts during Covid/their open window to sign impactful guys and didn't do it. They had the opportunity this offseason with more clarity on season tickets, covid clarity, etc. and still didn't spend. It will ultimately come back to haunt them when in game 3 or 4 of an ALDS or ALCS you have a tired Kopech going and questionable arms coming in after to replace him. 

Welcome to the SS Johnny. Be better than Ervin Santana and Mat Latos please. 

[Look at Ray Ray Run]

6 minutes ago, ptatc said:

Budget allotment consists of what the expected expense is. It's a 4.2 mil contract. If it's true he won't be ready until May that's 1/6 of the season he will be missing. So even if stays on the roster for the rest if the year that's a max of 3.5. So the budgeted money starts there max. If they think he won't be there after Lynn returns they budget even less.

There's only 21 games in April. It's about 3.7 million, but that's semantics (i'd also guess it takes him about 2 weeks to get ramped up). I'm very well aware of how budgeting works and projected values work. The fact that there's a non-zero chance that he costs 3.7 million means that amount of money will be required/set aside. While the projected allocation may put that number at a lower level, you can't offer the 3.7 million if you're not prepared to spend it all and it is all being accounted for in the budget until it's not. 

The Sox offered him the money, whether it's guaranteed or not has very little impact on the total liability at the time of the offer. All it does it protect the investment and prevent it from being a 100% sunk cost should they release him. You got the medical side, I got the budget and cost analysis/risk assessment side.

Edited April 5, 2022 by Look at Ray Ray Run

[SoCalChiSox]

1 hour ago, HOFHurt35 said:

4 pages in and people still not understanding how a minor league deal works and bitching about $4.2 million which aren't guaranteed.

 

SMH

I think the primary issue is we need to make a truly meaningful move to strengthen the rotation. Lynn going down and the Tigers adding a savage only makes the need more acute.

Adding Cueto is not a meaningful move. It's trying to put lipstick on a pig. Its still a pig and the lipstick doesn't fool anyone. It doesn't transform the pig into a supermodel. Even McGuire isn't going to fap to that. 

These aren't the moves a "World Series contender" should be making. 

It's garbage. Why would we waste anything on someone who has to get stretched out for awhile in the minors first? Don't we need to replace Lynn's April and May innings from the getgo so the BP doesn't get exhausted and/or we don't get in a situation where you are conceding games twice a week with DK and ReyLo/VV? And it is a waste of money since it's been obvious for awhile that we are financially tapped out so each dollar is precious.

And then I hear "well you guys would be pissed if you saw what it would take to get a good pitcher on the trade market". Well, whose fault is it that the farm is a desolate wasteland where making any kind of big move would be painful?

The teams fault for failing to draft or develop properly. 

They didn't want to take back salary so we could get Meadows and now he's with a rival. They can't develop well so our offers suck for pitching. 

It's their fault on both fronts.

Want to know when the bitching will stop? 

When either they are a) tearing thru the schedule at a 95-100 win pace with even the current roster or when b) they make meaningful additions by taking on more salary obligations or c) they swindle someone for a really good SP and the cost somehow doesn't hurt at all.

In other words don't hold your breath.

The bitching will continue and in fact escalate exponentially until everything is smiles, cupcakes, rainbows AND unicorns. 

This is supposed to be our fucking window.

 

 

 

Edited April 5, 2022 by SoCalChiSox

[bmags]

2 minutes ago, caulfield12 said:

Except he always had that preference to stay close to home... plus joining a WS winning team.  Would have arguably cost the Sox $12-15 million to change his mind, and ATL might have upped their offer in response.   

Mchugh? You are talking about Charlie Morton. 

[ptatc]

Just now, Look at Ray Ray Run said:

There's only 21 games in April. It's about 3.7 million, but that's semantics. I'm very well aware of how budgeting works and projected values work. The fact that there's a non-zero chance that he costs 3.7 million means that amount of money will be required/set aside. While the projected allocation may put that number at a lower level, you can't offer the 3.7 million if you're not prepared to spend it all and it is all being accounted for in the budget until it's not. 

The Sox offered him the money, whether it's guaranteed or not has very little impact on the total liability at the time of the offer. All it does it protect the investment and prevent it from being a 100% sunk cost should they release him. You got the medical side, I got the budget and cost analysis/risk assessment side.

It is semantics as it's not paid by games is service time. If he sits in the bullpen and never pitches he still gets the money.

They will not have it all of it accounted fir in the budget. They will have a an estimation of the amount based on how much they think he is going to pitch. 

They know it's not the full amount as he is starting in the minors.

[southsider2k5]

I would be curious how hard he has been working during the spring.  I mean he totally could have been ramping up on his own, but I guess we will see.

[Lillian]

8 minutes ago, southsider2k5 said:

I would be curious how hard he has been working during the spring.  I mean he totally could have been ramping up on his own, but I guess we will see.

That's the obvious question, which I've been asking myself. Does anyone know how hard he has been working, in anticipation of getting a contract?

[caulfield12]

14 minutes ago, bmags said:

Mchugh? You are talking about Charlie Morton. 

https://www.mlb.com/news/collin-mchugh-back-with-hometown-braves

The other article starts out "lifetime Braves fan Collin McHugh"

[caulfield12]

11 minutes ago, southsider2k5 said:

I would be curious how hard he has been working during the spring.  I mean he totally could have been ramping up on his own, but I guess we will see.

https://apnews.com/article/e702bb9023cb4ba88d8454416731811c

This sounds like a positive, although clearly a difference at 32-34 versus 35-36.   Always had the rep of basically a workout freak in his younger days.  The anti-Lynn. 

[he gone.]

2 minutes ago, Lillian said:

That's the obvious question, which I've been asking myself. Does anyone know how hard he has been working, in anticipation of getting a contract?

He was training with ReyLo in the off-season. I'm guessing the Sox have a good idea of how ready he is. Plus a vet. Plus a guy we really just don't give a shit about since it's pro-rated contract. I'd guess by the week of April 18 he's up and pitching. Gives him 2 weeks. He probably reports right away, gets his bearings, does 1-2 starts in Charlotte and reports up. He's a warm body. 

[VAfan]

20 minutes ago, SoCalChiSox said:

I think the primary issue is we need to make a truly meaningful move to strengthen the rotation. Lynn going down and the Tigers adding a savage only makes the need more acute.

Adding Cueto is not a meaningful move. It's trying to put lipstick on a pig. Its still a pig and the lipstick doesn't fool anyone. It doesn't transform the pig into a supermodel. Even McGuire isn't going to fap to that. 

These aren't the moves a "World Series contender" should be making. 

It's garbage. Why would we waste anything on someone who has to get stretched out for awhile in the minors first? Don't we need to replace Lynn's April and May innings from the getgo so the BP doesn't get exhausted and/or we don't get in a situation where you are conceding games twice a week with DK and ReyLo/VV? And it is a waste of money since it's been obvious for awhile that we are financially tapped out so each dollar is precious.

And then I hear "well you guys would be pissed if you saw what it would take to get a good pitcher on the trade market". Well, whose fault is it that the farm is a desolate wasteland where making any kind of big move would be painful?

The teams fault for failing to draft or develop properly. 

They didn't want to take back salary so we could get Meadows and now he's with a rival. They can't develop well so our offers suck for pitching. 

It's their fault on both fronts.

Want to know when the bitching will stop? 

When either they are a) tearing thru the schedule at a 95-100 win pace with even the current roster or when b) they make meaningful additions by taking on more salary obligations or c) they swindle someone for a really good SP and the cost somehow doesn't hurt at all.

In other words don't hold your breath.

The bitching will continue and in fact escalate exponentially until everything is smiles, cupcakes, rainbows AND unicorns. 

This is supposed to be our fucking window.

 

 

 

So why exactly are you a Sox fan? 

[Two-Gun Pete]

1 hour ago, hogan873 said:

And can we stop talking about Rodon after every signing/trade?  He wasn't going to accept the QO, so the $18M wasn't going to spent on him regardless.  I get the loss of the draft pick, and that's a headscratcher, but Rodon would not be in a White Sox uniform right now unless the Sox offered him a deal similar to what he got.

First, no. We SHOULD discuss Rodon, as it pertains to this FO's shitty reading of the market, and as a generally stupid move. Sweeping it under the rug gives RH a pass.

 

Second, whenever a QO is offered/refused, we know for certain that a player's market dwindles. We've seen that with Keuchel and Kimbrel when they refused their QOs, and we are likely seeing it with Conforto. Rodon probably would have refused the QO, but then his offered would have shrank.

His $22MM/per offer without the QO isn't "THAT MUCH" more than the QO; with the QO, his offers would have been more similar to the QO.

 

Lastly, I don't get why some are celebrating the Pollock and Cueto moves. Anyone could have seen months ago that they needed a real OFer. And anyone could have seen the need for SP depth the heartbeat those morons gave Rodon away for free.

The Pollock and Cueto moves were reactive, rather than proactive. They were driven by desperation, rather than intentional design. And while I guess its better to have scraped the bottom of the barrel than to be without these two, the process and outcomes of landing these two were suboptimal.

Edited April 5, 2022 by Two-Gun Pete

[southsider2k5]

11 minutes ago, he gone. said:

He was training with ReyLo in the off-season. I'm guessing the Sox have a good idea of how ready he is. Plus a vet. Plus a guy we really just don't give a shit about since it's pro-rated contract. I'd guess by the week of April 18 he's up and pitching. Gives him 2 weeks. He probably reports right away, gets his bearings, does 1-2 starts in Charlotte and reports up. He's a warm body. 

It's not about the contract and pay as much as it is about his availability.

[VAfan]

5 minutes ago, Two-Gun Pete said:

First, no. We SHOULD discuss Rodon, as it pertains to this FO's shitty reading of the market, and as a generally stupid move. Sweeping it under the rug gives RH a pass.

 

Second, whenever a QO is offered/refused, we know for certain that a player's market dwindles. We've seen that with Keuchel and Kimbrel when they refused their QOs, and we are likely seeing it with Conforto. Rodon probably would have refused the QO, but then his offered would have shrank.

His $22MM/per offer without the QO isn't "THAT MUCH" more than the QO; with the QO, his offers would have been more similar to the QO.

 

Lastly, I don't get why some are celebrating the Pollock and Cueto moves. Anyone could have seen months ago that they needed a real OFer. And anyone could have seen the need for SP depth the heartbeat those morons gave Rodon away for free.

The Pollock and Cueto moves were reactive, rather than proactive. They were driven by desperation, rather than intentional design. And while I guess its better to have scraped the bottom of the barrel than to be without these two, the process and outcomes of landing these two were suboptimal.

I was on Rodon more than anyone on Soxtalk, and have the posts to prove it.   I think the Sox will regret letting him get out the door.  Especially without any draft pick compensation.

But I disagree about Pollock, who is a better outfielder and costs far less than Michael Conforto, who everyone was clamoring for on this site.  

As for Cueto, the way the deal is structured it only has potential upside for the Sox.  If he pitches well, they pay him.  If he doesn't, they don't.   He has the potential to be a better starter filler than Lopez or Velasquez, who are probably better off being used in 2-3 inning stints.  Yesterday, for example, Velasquez shut down the Cubs the first two innings, then couldn't get out of the 3rd.  

[RibbieRubarb]

10 hours ago, fathom said:

It’s really frustrating that this team looks worse on paper than last year.  It’s still a very talented team but I think we all expected the talent level to remain similar, if not improve, then to see it go down a bit.

I can't...?

Keep on Soxtalkin, Soxtalk! 

[RibbieRubarb]

40 minutes ago, SoCalChiSox said:

I think the primary issue is we need to make a truly meaningful move to strengthen the rotation. Lynn going down and the Tigers adding a savage only makes the need more acute.

Adding Cueto is not a meaningful move. It's trying to put lipstick on a pig. Its still a pig and the lipstick doesn't fool anyone. It doesn't transform the pig into a supermodel. Even McGuire isn't going to fap to that. 

These aren't the moves a "World Series contender" should be making. 

It's garbage. Why would we waste anything on someone who has to get stretched out for awhile in the minors first? Don't we need to replace Lynn's April and May innings from the getgo so the BP doesn't get exhausted and/or we don't get in a situation where you are conceding games twice a week with DK and ReyLo/VV? And it is a waste of money since it's been obvious for awhile that we are financially tapped out so each dollar is precious.

And then I hear "well you guys would be pissed if you saw what it would take to get a good pitcher on the trade market". Well, whose fault is it that the farm is a desolate wasteland where making any kind of big move would be painful?

The teams fault for failing to draft or develop properly. 

They didn't want to take back salary so we could get Meadows and now he's with a rival. They can't develop well so our offers suck for pitching. 

It's their fault on both fronts.

Want to know when the bitching will stop? 

When either they are a) tearing thru the schedule at a 95-100 win pace with even the current roster or when b) they make meaningful additions by taking on more salary obligations or c) they swindle someone for a really good SP and the cost somehow doesn't hurt at all.

In other words don't hold your breath.

The bitching will continue and in fact escalate exponentially until everything is smiles, cupcakes, rainbows AND unicorns. 

This is supposed to be our fucking window.

 

 

 

When did we start allowing Parody accounts on this site?

[southsider2k5]

12 minutes ago, RibbieRubarb said:

When did we start allowing Parody accounts on this site?

I believe it was 2002 with BrandoFan.

[pcq]

Kind of a screwed-up season already. Friday still looks like yuk weather, should have gone with Thursday.

Welcome Johnny Quest !! 

[RibbieRubarb]

14 minutes ago, southsider2k5 said:

I believe it was 2002 with BrandoFan.

Deep Cut.

[EloyJenkins]

When Rodon's arm blows up in May are all of you going to STFU? Seriously, it's over. Move on. He is going to get hurt. Cueto is a warm body and better than internal options. End of story. This site is really becoming unbearable.