Are the 2022 White Sox better than the 2021 team? On offense, yes, by a lot!

[VAfan]

People are raving about the Dodgers and the Blue Jays offenses.  But let's just look at how much better the White Sox offense is likely to be this year. 

 

Here are the deadbeats of the 2021 offense. 

Player	AB	H	HR	BA	OBP	SLG	OPS	OPS+
Hernandez	194	45	3	0.232	0.309	0.299	0.608	69
Eaton	189	38	5	0.209	0.298	0.344	0.642	76
Mercedes	240	65	7	0.271	0.328	0.404	0.732	100
Goodwin	235	52	8	0.221	0.319	0.374	0.693	90
Mendick	164	36	2	0.22	0.303	0.289	0.589	64
Hamilton	127	28	2	0.22	0.242	0.378	0.62	67
Lamb	113	24	6	0.212	0.321	0.389	0.71	94
Madrigal	200	61	2	0.305	0.349	0.425	0.774	112
Jimenez (2021)	213	53	10	0.249	0.303	0.437	0.74	100
Vaughn (against RH)	298	66	7	0.222	0.277	0.332	0.61	69
Collins	195	41	4	0.21	0.33	0.338	0.669	66
Zavala	93	17	5	0.183	0.24	0.376	0.616	66
Totals	2261	526	61	0.232

I'm not calculating collective OBP, SLG, OPS or OPS+, but you can see the situation. 

We had 2 players at league average - Mercedes and Jimenez - and 1 above - Madrigal.  Everyone else was below, often well below. 

EDIT:  The 2021 team had 5357 ABs, with a .256 BA, .336 OBP, and .422 SLG, and .758 OPS.  Most of these guys pulled those averages down.  Overall, 2261/5357 is 42% of the ABs.

Now here is a possible lineup of the 2022 Sox using their 2021 numbers.

Player	AB	H	HR	BA	OBP	SLG	OPS	OPS+
Anderson	527	163	17	0.309	0.338	0.469	0.806	118
Robert total	275	93	13	0.338	0.378	0.567	0.945	156
Abreu	566	148	30	0.261	0.351	0.481	0.831	125
Grandal	279	67	23	0.24	0.42	0.52	0.939	157
Jimenez (2020)	213	63	14	0.296	0.332	0.559	0.891	139
Sheets (v. RHP)	160	38	11	0.268	0.344	0.556	0.9	145
Vaughan (v. LHP)	119	32	8	0.269	0.383	0.555	0.938	153
Pollock	384	114	21	0.297	0.355	0.536	0.892	137
Moncada	520	137	14	0.263	0.375	0.412	0.787	117
Harrison	505	141	8	0.279	0.341	0.4	0.741	106
Totals	3548	996	159	0.28

(Note that Excel rounded off numbers, so 0.28 equal .280, for example.)

I've used Jimenez's 2020 numbers to approximate what he might look like in 2022.  I've used the splits for Sheets and Vaughn because they make a perfect platoon.  And I've moved Yoan Moncada to the bottom of the lineup because that's probably where he should hit unless he returns to his 2019 numbers. 

There are 10 players above, because I've put Sheets and Vaughn together as a platoon.  Here are the other 3 players likely to stay on the roster when the team cuts down to 26 players. I used Reese McGuire's totals against right handers because he has massive split differences and would likely play most of his time against righties.  

EDIT: The group above, if healthy, could end up with as many as 4500 ABs.  Robert could add 250-300, Grandal could add 100, Jimenez could add 300, Sheets/Vaughn could add 250, and Pollock could add 50.  

Player	AB	H	HR	BA	OBP	SLG	OPS	OPS+
Garcia	415	111	5	0.267	0.335	0.376	0.711	96
McGuire (v. RHP)	158	43	1	0.272	0.333	0.367	0.7	95
Engel	123	31	7	0.252	0.336	0.496	0.832	124

This trio could get the lions share of the remaining ABs. 

And here are a couple of tidbits to consider.  What if Luis Robert hit like he did after he returned from injury last year, or if Moncada returned to his 2019 numbers?

Player	AB	H	HR	BA	OBP	SLG	OPS	OPS+
Moncada (2019)	511	161	25	0.315	0.367	0.548	0.915	140
Robert after return	180	63	12	0.35	0.389	0.622	1.011	170

*************

What to make of these numbers?  

1. Everyone of the main starters has an OPS above league average.  

To provide some context here, the Blue Jays led baseball last year with a collective OPS+ of 115.  The White Sox were 4th at 107.  

Every hitter on the Sox except Josh Harrison is likely to exceed an OPS+ of 115, often by a LOT.  And the 3 bench players are divided, with Engel above, and Garcia and McGuire just below league average. 

2. Most of the team is getting better. 

Tim Anderson, Luis Robert, Eloy Jimenez, Gavin Sheets, and Andrew Vaughn are all on the upswing.  Yoan Moncada could be too.  

It's possible that Abreu, Grandal, Pollock and Harrison will decline somewhat.  But with more on the upswing, it's possible the Sox could hit better than these numbers.

3. The aggregate totals are way below the likely totals because they include partial years from key players.

You have partial years or small samples from Robert, Jimenez, Grandal, Sheets/Vaughn, and to a lesser extent Anderson and Pollock.  

So the HR's you might expect from this group, for example, should be much higher.   The Sox led the AL in HRs in 2020.  They might vie for the ML lead in 2022.  

4. Unfortunately, there may be injuries this year too.  But the team is in a better place to respond.

Of course we don't want to lose Robert or Jimenez or Grandal again.  But if we do, we are in a better position to respond.  Pollock can play CF, or Engel can.  Sheets/Vaughn can cover the outfield corners.  Garcia can cover everywhere.  And we still have some productive hitters in AAA in Jake Burger, for example.  

************

So, while I'm concerned about the pitching, I believe the White Sox offense could be the best in baseball this year if everyone stays healthy. 

EDIT: One thing that's kind of fascinating is that I looked up the top scoring White Sox team of all time.  It's the 2000 club, which scored 978 runs.  They had a collective OPS of .826.  The 2021 team had an OPS of .758.   7 of the 2022 regulars exceeded an .826 OPS last year or in Jimenez's case, in 2020.  So, if all went perfectly, perhaps the Sox could beat that total.  But 978 runs?  The Astros led baseball last year with 863.  Last time a MLB team exceeded 900 runs was in 2019, when 4 teams did it.  

GO SOX!!

 

 

Edited April 6, 2022 by VAfan

[Tnetennba]

On paper, overall, no.  If the offense doesn’t suffer the same catastrophic injuries, that will be better.  The pitching has already suffered serious injury even after losing a 4 WAR starter w/o replacement.  With little depth to fall back on and luck already not on their side, it’s tough to see them as an improved team overall heading into opening day. 

[Tony]

33 minutes ago, VAfan said:

 

So, while I'm concerned about the pitching, I believe the White Sox offense could be the best in baseball this year if everyone stays healthy. 

 

 

 

I believe I could be in the best shape of my life, If I started eating better and worked out 6 days a week…..which seems about just as likely to happen as the White Sox offense staying healthy all season. 

[caulfield12]

18 minutes ago, Tnetennba said:

On paper, overall, no.  If the offense doesn’t suffer the same catastrophic injuries, that will be better.  The pitching has already suffered serious injury even after losing a 4 WAR starter w/o replacement.  With little depth to fall back on and luck already not on their side, it’s tough to see them as an improved team overall heading into opening day. 

4.9 fWAR.

And VaFan gets points I guess for relentless positivity/optimism.

I just wonder if the marketing department sent out a daily Sox Brief with his thoughts....if it would boost season ticket sales or actually have the reverse effect?

 

Every new season, there are lots of possibilities, and then 3-5 things we never imagined were possible, such as Yermin in April and the long list of obscure outfielders who had to fill in for Eloy, Robert and Engel.

I get the main point, of course, but trying to cover up for the holes in the starting staff, bullpen and especially the defense (hopefully Sheets never plays RF again) isn't going to make things any better by wishing them away.

They do have a better defense simply getting Vaughn and Sheets out of RF, that's inarguable...although opponents will definitely test Pollock's arm from the get-go.

[VAfan]

So when the Sox rake on offense I guess all you guys will just complain about something else.

Not sure why appreciating the Sox is seen so negatively by Sox "fans".

And if the Sox win anything, just don't dare come on here and celebrate it.  

[VAfan]

I should have given some context to the ABs that we won't have in 2022, so I edited the original post to add it.

[Chicago White Sox]

If the offense is relatively healthy, then yes it should be better than last year:

• Robert & Eloy both available for full seasons and getting better
• Grandal even more productive with his knee issues resolved
• Pollack providing superior production in RF for ~120 games over Eaton and filler
• Vaughn taking a big 2nd year jump (he won’t platooned though)
• Moncada’s power numbers improving as he continues to recover from long COVID
• Deeper bench (Leury, Sheets, Engel) and AAA depth (Burger, Romy, Haseley).

The problem is for as much optimism as there is on the positional side of things, there should be an equal amount of pessimism on the pitching side of things.

[JoeC]

I have no concerns about the offense.

Harrison > (last year's 2Bmen)

Pollock > (last year's RFers)

Just gotta hope it's enough to make up for the lack of starting pitching depth.

[caulfield12]

5 hours ago, VAfan said:

So when the Sox rake on offense I guess all you guys will just complain about something else.

Not sure why appreciating the Sox is seen so negatively by Sox "fans".

And if the Sox win anything, just don't dare come on here and celebrate it.  

“Success is never final, failure is never fatal, and it’s courage that counts.”

[CaliSoxFanViaSWside]

4 hours ago, VAfan said:

So when the Sox rake on offense I guess all you guys will just complain about something else.

Not sure why appreciating the Sox is seen so negatively by Sox "fans".

And if the Sox win anything, just don't dare come on here and celebrate it.  

When you are always positive people see it as fake, like the way Steve Garvey was seen. Garvey with the Superman good looks , big smile ,very good hitter and fielder was a fan favorite though and that attitude got him tons of commercials, motivation speaker gigs , radio and TV time. A lot of his peers didn't like him. They called him The Senator and Mr. Perfect.

You should know by now that losing game threads are twice as long as winning ones.

It's not macho to be all sweet , kind and positive because you end up looking like a caricature .

How often to you hear it's exhausting rather than , it's refreshing.

 

[SpringfieldFan]

VAfan, you do have a highly optimistic take but you gave numbers and analysis to authenticate it . Let’s hope they bear out. I’m just happy the main offensive pieces are healthy going in.

[Squirmin' for Yermin]

On paper no.  But they'll have a better record due to better health.

[RibbieRubarb]

7 hours ago, VAfan said:

So when the Sox rake on offense I guess all you guys will just complain about something else.

Not sure why appreciating the Sox is seen so negatively by Sox "fans".

And if the Sox win anything, just don't dare come on here and celebrate it.  

Forget it, Jake...It's Soxtalk.

Edited April 6, 2022 by RibbieRubarb
typo

[GREEDY]

Coming into last spring training I was significantly more optimistic:

Thought Moncada could be a superstar.

Thought Madrigal could be an above average 2B (he is not and neither is Harrison).

Was a tad higher on both Eloy & Vaughn (obviously nothing is etched in stone but any reasonable projections would surely be a tad lower this season).

Abreu and Grandal are a year older.  

The only clear upgrade is Pollock (and Sheets I guess)  while TA & Robert probably hold serve from my projections last year.  

[Tnetennba]

7 hours ago, VAfan said:

So when the Sox rake on offense I guess all you guys will just complain about something else.

Not sure why appreciating the Sox is seen so negatively by Sox "fans".

And if the Sox win anything, just don't dare come on here and celebrate it.  

And I’m sure you’ll find something else about the “complaining” to complain about yourself.  Being critical of your front office’s moves in no way makes you less of a fan.  Implying such is BS.   Blind optimism and labelling anyone critical as “fans” as if they are some how lesser is just as annoying to read as the overly doom & gloom pessimism.  You don’t have to be here if it’s such a drag.  

[Lillian]

Yes, the offense could indeed be something really extraordinary, and there is decent depth there, as well. It might be the best Sox lineup I've ever seen, dating back to 1953, when I became a Sox fan. However, the starting pitching is very, very thin, and that's where all teams are most vulnerable to injury. The kinds of injuries which effect pitchers, are often season ending. The Sox have a great and deep offense, but a vulnerable and thin rotation. What is the obvious solution?... I've made the assertion several times; trade some of that offense, for a starter. So, whom could Hahn acquire and what would he need to sacrifice? 

Edited April 6, 2022 by Lillian

[CaliSoxFanViaSWside]

44 minutes ago, GREEDY said:

Coming into last spring training I was significantly more optimistic:

Thought Moncada could be a superstar.

Thought Madrigal could be an above average 2B (he is not and neither is Harrison).

Was a tad higher on both Eloy & Vaughn (obviously nothing is etched in stone but any reasonable projections would surely be a tad lower this season).

Abreu and Grandal are a year older.  

The only clear upgrade is Pollock (and Sheets I guess)  while TA & Robert probably hold serve from my projections last year.  

 Madrigal  was actually above average despite all the talk about his bad base running and fielding in his rookie year. In his limited time in 2021 he was a positive base runner (UBR 2.0 )and fielder ( OAA 1.0, UZR .6)

As a hitter in both 2020 and 2021 his wRC+ were respectively 111 and 113 and the Sox will miss the financial flexibility he provided. It sucked that like  many of our young players that he was injured too much.

I will also say that Vaughn will be an upgrade. I don't think there's any chance his 2nd year in MLB will be worse than his 1st year.

Robert should be a huge upgrade because he haven't even got to see him play yet for any extended period of time.

Eloy is capable of doing better than last year since he has proven he can slug .500+ . He also just has to stay on the field more.

Edited April 6, 2022 by CaliSoxFanViaSWside

[turnin' two]

Gotta love a positive post!  Thanks man!  It isn't all doom and gloom.

[GREEDY]

11 minutes ago, CaliSoxFanViaSWside said:

 Madrigal  was actually above average despite all the talk about his bad base running and fielding in his rookie year. In his limited time in 2021 he was a positive base runner (UBR 2.0 )and fielder ( OAA 1.0, UZR .6)

As a hitter in both 2020 and 2021 his wRC+ were respectively 111 and 113 and the Sox will miss the financial flexibility he provided. It sucked that like  many of our young players that he was injured too much.

I will also say that Vaughn will be an upgrade. I don't think there's any chance his 2nd year in MLB will be worse than his 1st year.

Robert should be a huge upgrade because he haven't even got to see him play yet for any extended period of time.

Eloy is capable of doing better than last year since he has proven he can slug .500+ . He also just has to stay on the field more.

My post, to differ from the obvious was to point out where we sat coming into last season.  

I am lower on the majority than I was at this time last year.

On Madrigal specifically Just eyeballing his numbers, even if you extrapolate for a full season he would have been firmly in the middle tier of 3.  

[HOFHurt35]

As evidence by the team that won the WS last year, you don't have to be the greatest on paper going into opening day. 

 

 

[CentralChamps21]

If Madrigal plays 140+ games, he'll be significantly better than the Leury/Harrison platoon, but I don't give very good odds that Madrigal plays 140+ games.

I don't expect Eloy or Luis to suffer significant injuries again. Those were fluke things. They aren't injury prone like Madrigal.

Even if Pollock only plays 100 games that will be an upgrade in RF.

Hopefully we have Grandal for a full season. While we all like the defensive upgrade in McGuire, the offense would suffer if he has to catch much more than 40 games.

Moncada is the one I really worry about. I'm worried that he may struggle to recover from long COVID (if that's what is affecting him). I wouldn't be surprised to see regression from him.

[caulfield12]

10 minutes ago, CentralChamps21 said:

If Madrigal plays 140+ games, he'll be significantly better than the Leury/Harrison platoon, but I don't give very good odds that Madrigal plays 140+ games.

I don't expect Eloy or Luis to suffer significant injuries again. Those were fluke things. They aren't injury prone like Madrigal.

Even if Pollock only plays 100 games that will be an upgrade in RF.

Hopefully we have Grandal for a full season. While we all like the defensive upgrade in McGuire, the offense would suffer if he has to catch much more than 40 games.

Moncada is the one I really worry about. I'm worried that he may struggle to recover from long COVID (if that's what is affecting him). I wouldn't be surprised to see regression from him.

How many White Sox games have you watched the last three seasons?

[CaliSoxFanViaSWside]

20 minutes ago, GREEDY said:

My post, to differ from the obvious was to point out where we sat coming into last season.  

I am lower on the majority than I was at this time last year.

On Madrigal specifically Just eyeballing his numbers, even if you extrapolate for a full season he would have been firmly in the middle tier of 3.  

Right I was going to put your caveat of your expectations at the end of my post but didn't.

I never had expectations for Vaughn in his 1st year the same as I don't have them for Kopech in his 1st time as a full time starting pitcher.

My expectations for Robert and Robert are pretty much the same as last year to fulfill the high side of as yet unfulfilled consistency by staying on the field.

 I, too, thought he could be a superstar but only after 2019 when he played very well, but in the bold predictions from last year many were saying boldly he would be MVP. After 2020 I didn't share those thoughts. It was a combination of him getting Covid and reports he was just irresponsible with who he was hanging out with that changed my expectations.

[caulfield12]

16 minutes ago, CaliSoxFanViaSWside said:

Right I was going to put your caveat of your expectations at the end of my post but didn't.

I never had expectations for Vaughn in his 1st year the same as I don't have them for Kopech in his 1st time as a full time starting pitcher.

My expectations for Robert and Robert are pretty much the same as last year to fulfill the high side of as yet unfulfilled consistency by staying on the field.

 I, too, thought he could be a superstar but only after 2019 when he played very well, but in the bold predictions from last year many were saying boldly he would be MVP. After 2020 I didn't share those thoughts. It was a combination of him getting Covid and reports he was just irresponsible with who he was hanging out with that changed my expectations.

Robert and Moncada... just to be clear your last paragraph is about Yoan and not Luis. 

[VAfan]

4 hours ago, CaliSoxFanViaSWside said:

When you are always positive people see it as fake, like the way Steve Garvey was seen. Garvey with the Superman good looks , big smile ,very good hitter and fielder was a fan favorite though and that attitude got him tons of commercials, motivation speaker gigs , radio and TV time. A lot of his peers didn't like him. They called him The Senator and Mr. Perfect.

You should know by now that losing game threads are twice as long as winning ones.

It's not macho to be all sweet , kind and positive because you end up looking like a caricature .

How often to you hear it's exhausting rather than , it's refreshing.

 

I'm not an apologist for the front office, which I'm often made out to be.  I pulled for Rodon being re-signed more than just about anyone on this site, and think it was a big mistake that the Sox didn't do it, for example.  

I think the Sox now have serious pitching concerns, and if the pitching really implodes, it's very hard to hit your way out of it.   But we'll find out soon enough.