Are the 2022 White Sox better than the 2021 team? On offense, yes, by a lot!

[VAfan]

5 hours ago, Chicago White Sox said:

If the offense is relatively healthy, then yes it should be better than last year:

• Robert & Eloy both available for full seasons and getting better
• Grandal even more productive with his knee issues resolved
• Pollack providing superior production in RF for ~120 games over Eaton and filler
• Vaughn taking a big 2nd year jump (he won’t platooned though)
• Moncada’s power numbers improving as he continues to recover from long COVID
• Deeper bench (Leury, Sheets, Engel) and AAA depth (Burger, Romy, Haseley).

The problem is for as much optimism as there is on the positional side of things, there should be an equal amount of pessimism on the pitching side of things.

Sheets should get most starts at DH when facing right handers.  The difference between him and Vaughn was massive last year.  Maybe Vaughn closes that gap, but to start him over Sheets against a RH would be like starting Leury Garcia over Luis Robert in CF.  The wRC+ gap between Sheets and Vaughn was around 80, with Vaughn being the second worst hitter on the team, better than only Zavala.  Just look at the numbers in the original post above.    

 

[mmmmmbeeer]

What you've laid is out certainly came into the FO's mind when deciding what to do with this starting rotation.  There's little question that a lineup as loaded as this one will give the staff more margin for error.  I don't think that's a good strategy for post-season baseball but if it can carry us to the deadline when we have an idea of who is out there to fortify the rotation, that's good enough.

[ChiSox59]

1 hour ago, VAfan said:

Sheets should get most starts at DH when facing right handers.  The difference between him and Vaughn was massive last year.  Maybe Vaughn closes that gap, but to start him over Sheets against a RH would be like starting Leury Garcia over Luis Robert in CF.  The wRC+ gap between Sheets and Vaughn was around 80, with Vaughn being the second worst hitter on the team, better than only Zavala.  Just look at the numbers in the original post above.    

 

Dude, Vaughn isn't going to be a short side platoon player.  Not sure how many times that needs to be stated.  

[CentralChamps21]

11 minutes ago, ChiSox59 said:

Dude, Vaughn isn't going to be a short side platoon player.  Not sure how many times that needs to be stated.  

There's really two colliding trains of thought.

Vaughn needs to be playing everyday because that's the only way he's going to improve vs RHP

Sheets is one of the best hitters on the team vs RHP and needs to be in the lineup.

Maybe Eloy or Jose get some days off vs RHP in order to get both of them in the lineup.

If Sheets isn't going to be in the lineup at least 2/3 of the time they're facing a righty, then he really ought to be at Charlotte playing every day.

[ChiSox59]

10 minutes ago, CentralChamps21 said:

There's really two colliding trains of thought.

Vaughn needs to be playing everyday because that's the only way he's going to improve vs RHP

Sheets is one of the best hitters on the team vs RHP and needs to be in the lineup.

Maybe Eloy or Jose get some days off vs RHP in order to get both of them in the lineup.

If Sheets isn't going to be in the lineup at least 2/3 of the time they're facing a righty, then he really ought to be at Charlotte playing every day.

I don’t disagree that Sheets should be playing everyday somewhere. Chances are injuries will happen and both will get daily reps with the Sox most of the time. But as things sit right now, it’s Sheets riding the pine pony most days, not Vaughn. I don’t know why this is so hard for some people to grasp here (not directed as you). The Sox are not having AV sit on the bench against most RHP. Guy is going to be an elite offensive player in this league. I liked what I saw from Gavin last year and obviously the Sox need more balance in the lineup, but playing Sheets over AV regularly simply isn’t going to happen. 

[SCCWS]

4 hours ago, VAfan said:

I'm not an apologist for the front office, which I'm often made out to be.  I pulled for Rodon being re-signed more than just about anyone on this site, and think it was a big mistake that the Sox didn't do it, for example.  

I think the Sox now have serious pitching concerns, and if the pitching really implodes, it's very hard to hit your way out of it.   But we'll find out soon enough.

I have posted several times that I think MLB will see more injuries due to a shortened spring training. The teams most affected by injuries will under-perform.  Hopefully the White Sox survive their injuries. 

[caulfield12]

3 hours ago, SCCWS said:

I have posted several times that I think MLB will see more injuries due to a shortened spring training. The teams most affected by injuries will under-perform.  Hopefully the White Sox survive their injuries. 

The Minnesota Twins of 2018-19 are the perfect example of bludgeoning teams to death offensively and coming up short in the post-season due to pitching woes.

[CaliSoxFanViaSWside]

8 hours ago, caulfield12 said:

Robert and Moncada... just to be clear your last paragraph is about Yoan and not Luis. 

Thanks I just changed it. I meant Robert and Jimenez with the last paragraph being about Moncada.

[CaliSoxFanViaSWside]

6 hours ago, ChiSox59 said:

I don’t disagree that Sheets should be playing everyday somewhere. Chances are injuries will happen and both will get daily reps with the Sox most of the time. But as things sit right now, it’s Sheets riding the pine pony most days, not Vaughn. I don’t know why this is so hard for some people to grasp here (not directed as you). The Sox are not having AV sit on the bench against most RHP. Guy is going to be an elite offensive player in this league. I liked what I saw from Gavin last year and obviously the Sox need more balance in the lineup, but playing Sheets over AV regularly simply isn’t going to happen. 

Its not so hard to grasp if you look at it dispassionately. I was no fanboy of Sheets but I did sort of like that .900 OPS against RHP . Now I can definitely say that there are fanboys of Vaughn because even though he wasn't even close to being ready last year everyone wanted him to play every day. To hell with winning. I guess most thought the Sox were going to win the division easy with a weak hitting Vaughn (against RHP) in the lineup every day along with the scrubs who were also filling in the lineup on an every day basis.

I wasn't 100% sure of that but he got a lot of MLB AB's but not nearly as many as most wanted him to get. There was a lot of consternation whenever he wasn't in the lineup. Then Sheets came along and put up a .900 OPS against RHP while Vaughn reverted to struggling again . Of course the fanboys said Sheets AB's were cherry picked while Vaughn was just tired at the end of the season.

Yes Vaughn is the better prospect and will likely have a better career . Yes Sheets had way more MILB AB's than Vaughn so he was more prepared to face MLB pitching. But every excuse in the book was used to downplay Sheets accomplishments and every excuse in the book was given for Vaughns struggles for the whole 1st half and for the end of the season.

That still doesn't even count the fact that the Sox actually need LHP power in the lineup . You're not even advocating for an equal amount of AB's against RHP to make it fair.Make it a fair fight . Play them an equal amount and may the best man win . I'm not saying I want Sheets in the lineup against LHP. I want them to get an equal amount of AB's against RHP . If the playoffs roll around and Vaughn is much improved against RHP and has a wRC+ 115 against them but Sheets in equal time puts up 135+ I'll guarantee people would still be clamoring for Vaughn against RHP in the playoffs if the Sox are not able to get them both in the same lineup.

[35thstreetswarm]

I don’t really think the premise of the post—the OFFENSE being better than last year when we had Eaton starting in RF and massive injuries to two middle of the order bats—should be all that controversial.

[Jerksticks]

The force is strong with you.  You see the light.  

[caulfield12]

Look at the FanGraphs postseason odds:

1. Blue Jays: 89.0%
2. Astros: 85.9%
3. Yankees: 83.1%
4. White Sox: 71.5%
5. Red Sox: 62.6%
6. Rays: 58.4%
7. Angels: 43.7%
8. Twins: 41.6%

FanGraphs says the four non-O's teams in the division have four of the six highest postseason odds in the league, so the objective computers agree with me. So it shall be. Four AL East teams are heading to October thanks to the 12-team postseason format.

21. The White Sox will reach the ALCS

Four AL East teams will reach the postseason, but the White Sox are going to the ALCS. This is notable because a) the White Sox have not won a postseason series since the 2005 World Series, and b) an AL Central team has not won a postseason series since Cleveland won the 2016 ALCS. AL Central teams are 4-23 in the postseason since Cleveland took a 3-1 lead in the 2016 World Series. 4-23! The tide begins to turn this season. The South Siders will advance to the ALCS.

 

Dayn Perry picked the Tigers over the White Sox for the division, fwiw.

 

https://www.cbssports.com/mlb/news/2022-mlb-predictions-expert-picks-for-division-winners-and-world-series-champion/

[caulfield12]

Our pick: White Sox (34 votes)

Who else got votes? Twins (4)

---

All but four of our voters chose the White Sox to win the division. You picked the Twins. Explain yourself!

I am leaning into the great potential of their lineup. The upside up the middle is limitless with Byron Buxton, Carlos Correa, Jorge Polanco (33 home runs last season) and a focused Gary Sanchez. Then you add Miguel Sano, and a contact hitter like Luis Arraez and they can make pitchers truly work. They were an above-average defensive team last season that added a Gold Glove shortstop. It will take some breakout seasons by the other young players, especially on the mound, but they have the talent to do just that. -- Doug Glanville

 

AL CHAMPION

Our pick: Blue Jays (16 votes)

Who else got votes? White Sox (10), Rays (4), Yankees (4), Red Sox (2), Angels (1), Astros (1)

 

You picked the Yankees to win the pennant. What do you think gives them the edge over our panel's favorites -- namely, the Blue Jays and White Sox?

I haven't loved every move of the Yankees' offseason, but they're at least solid average at every spot except maybe fifth starter and middle relief, though those are also the easiest places to find unexpected contributors. With quality prospect depth lingering (Oswald Peraza, Anthony Volpe, Clarke Schmidt, Ken Waldichuk, Luis Medina, Deivi Garcia, et al.) to possibly contribute, the pieces to make another major move if needed, and the inclination to go for it this year, I think the incentives and talent level are right for the Bombers to break through this season, though I'd love to see a couple more pitching contributors emerge. -- Kiley McDaniel

https://www.espn.com/mlb/story/_/id/33645791/2022-mlb-predictions-expanded-playoffs-world-series-mvps-cy-youngs

[CentralChamps21]

So I did this exercise I've been doing each year for a while now:

I projected the OPS of each player and the number of PAs each guy would get. I was fairly conservative with most players' OPS and maybe a bit aggressive with playing time, though I only had Anderson and Abreu playing > 90% of games.

I ended up with a team OPS of .778. That would have ranked 3rd last year behind Toronto and Houston.