What if Zack Wheeler had accepted the Sox' offer?

[VAfan]

Here's a story on how the Sox made a higher offer than the Phillies did for Zack Wheeler.  This story is dated December 4, 2019.

Plan B for the Sox turned into the Dallas Keuchel deal.  This story is dated December 21, 2019.  

Here are Zack Wheeler's stats with Philly.

2020	30	PHI	NL	4	2	.667	2.92	11	11	0	0	0	0	71.0	67	26	23	3	16	2	53	7	0	0	288	154	3.22	1.169	8.5	0.4	2.0	6.7	3.31	CYA-12
2021	31	PHI	NL	14	10	.583	2.78	32	32	0	3	2	0	213.1	169	72	66	16	46	1	247	8	0	6	849	150	2.59	1.008	7.1	0.7	1.9	10.4	5.37	AS,CYA-2,MVP-19
2022	32	PHI	NL	0	2	.000	9.39	2	2	0	0	0	0	7.2	10	8	8	1	4	0	6	3	0	0	40	43	5.94	1.826	11.7	1.2	4.7	7.0	1.5

Here are Dallas Keuchel's stats with the Sox. 

2020	32	CHW	AL	6	2	.750	1.99	11	11	0	0	0	0	63.1	52	15	14	2	17	0	42	0	0	0	257	224	3.08	1.089	7.4	0.3	2.4	6.0	2.47	CYA-5,MVP-17
2021	33	CHW	AL	9	9	.500	5.28	32	30	0	0	0	0	162.0	189	105	95	25	59	1	95	7	0	5	720	81	5.23	1.531	10.5	1.4	3.3	5.3	1.61	GG
2022	34	CHW	AL	1	1	.500	16.50	2	2	0	0	0	0	6.0	16	13	11	2	1	0	5	0	0	1	38	24	6.24	2.833	24.0	3.0	1.5	7.5	5.00

Wheeler was lights out in both 2020 and 2021 for Philly, but has struggled so far this year.  

Dallas Keuchel did even better than Wheeler in 2020, finishing 5th in Cy Young voting, but dropped off significantly last year when Wheeler was leading the NL in innings pitched and strikeouts.

Just think of how this could have worked out differently.

1.  2020 playoffs.  Keuchel started and lost game 2, giving up 5 runs in 3-1/3.  Wheeler would have gotten the start.  Sox might have won that series in 2 games. 

2.  2021 playoffs.  Wheeler probably would have gotten the game 1 start.   Didn't have a better ERA than Lynn, but he's younger, stronger, healthier.  Could that series have flipped with Wheeler?  

3.  2022.  All my fretting about re-signing Carlos Rodon would likely be moot.  Sox still might have added Velasquez for depth, but their front 5 would have been Wheeler, Lynn, Giolito, Cease, and Kopech.  (So what if they are all right handers?  They're still all TOR pitchers.)  Even without Lynn and Giolito, they would still have Wheeler, Cease, and Kopech to manage until Giolito and Lynn returned.  Velasquez could serve the same role as he does now.  

4.  With Wheeler, the Sox still would have brought back Rodon in 2021.  But at the end of the year, they also might have tendered him and gotten the draft pick.  Even if he took it, the Sox would then have by far the best 6-man rotation in baseball.  

5.  Wheeler might have also been happier playing on a winning team and making the playoffs in back-to-back years, rather than leading a Philly team that missed the playoffs both years.  

So, instead of pining for Carlos Rodon, I've decided on replacing that with wondering "what if" for Zack Wheeler.  This also would been a better allocation of money, since Wheeler is worth his contract, while Keuchel never really has been.  And we'd still have Wheeler locked up for this year and 2 more years.  So even if Giolito were to leave in 2024, we'd still have Lynn, Wheeler, Cease and Kopech to top the rotation.  

Zack Wheeler is the one who got away, all because his wife wanted to stay on the East Coast.  Bummer. 

 

Edited April 21, 2022 by VAfan

[Tnetennba]

This of course assumes that all other signings after Wheeler singed with Philly would have happened the same.  I have my doubts that every other addition happens the same.  

[southsider2k5]

#1 is Lynn doesn't happen if the Sox bring Wheeler in.

[maxjusttyped]

Just now, southsider2k5 said:

#1 is Lynn doesn't happen if the Sox bring Wheeler in.

It would be very interesting to know what else the Sox could have traded Dunning for. Maybe it's still to Texas instead but for a guy like Gallo.

[Tony]

1 hour ago, southsider2k5 said:

#1 is Lynn doesn't happen if the Sox bring Wheeler in.

Why? 

[Squirmin' for Yermin]

1 hour ago, southsider2k5 said:

#1 is Lynn doesn't happen if the Sox bring Wheeler in.

It absolutely still does.  Lynn was traded for coming OFF of Keuchels outstanding first year. If we had Wheeler (outstanding first year), we'd still have been looking for a 3rd.

[Bob Sacamano]

16 minutes ago, Squirmin' for Yermin said:

It absolutely still does.  Lynn was traded for coming OFF of Keuchels outstanding first year. If we had Wheeler (outstanding first year), we'd still have been looking for a 3rd.

You’re talking about like an $8 mill/year difference in salary between Keuchel and the Wheeler offer though which also is a factor.

[wegner]

The only answer to the question posed that I am pretty sure of is......Dominique Wheeler would be not happy.

[FoxForce2]

I only half believe that Wheeler's wife's call was the deciding factor in his decision. There are more than a few players around the league that are less than thrilled about playing in JR's outfit. Pitchers really do prefer organizations that stress development of fundamentals in field-play among other things --- and don't quibble over 50K in arbitration with their top starters.  Or make careers of opposing the MLBPA and sometimes even opposing the fanbase. Not to mention...

[caulfield12]

Wheeler would be yet another question mark on the White Sox right now with lingering soreness during Spring Training...also, looking at his workload the last two years and his early 2022 results...that contract weighing if he doesn't right the ship, etc.

 

[black jack]

If my aunt had balls.

 

What ifs are for dreamers.