ptatc Posted May 9, 2022 Share Posted May 9, 2022 1 minute ago, Jack Parkman said: I think we should still be concerned. They feel like Cleveland last year. This looks to me like a .500 team. Whether that means 84 wins or 78 I have no idea, but I think they're going to be in that range. I don't think they're going to score enough runs to make the playoffs in the AL. Why do you think they won't score enough runs? Do you truly think that every single hitter will have their worst season ever and regress from the last 2 years? Because that's what it will take. Every hitter in the lineup is currently well below any previous season performance. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FoxForce2 Posted May 9, 2022 Share Posted May 9, 2022 (edited) 15 minutes ago, CaliSoxFanViaSWside said: You are probably right but those do not count as official AB's so if you go 3 for 10 and 1 sac bunt on 0-0 , it's still going to be a .300 batting average with 10 results counted because the ball was either an out or a hit in an official AB. A more representative number would start with PA resulting in AB (to include the percentage value of that computation), from which a batting average can be computed. I'd like to see a league average number or ranking listed as well. I'll get right to work on it. Edited May 9, 2022 by FoxForce2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jack Parkman Posted May 9, 2022 Share Posted May 9, 2022 (edited) 21 minutes ago, ptatc said: Why do you think they won't score enough runs? Do you truly think that every single hitter will have their worst season ever and regress from the last 2 years? Because that's what it will take. Every hitter in the lineup is currently well below any previous season performance. They're dead last in baseball in OBP, I don’t think that's a coincidence. They have a glut of free swingers. Moncada and Grandal are their only reliable OBP guys. Do I expect them to be dead last all season? No, but bottom 10 seems about right. Edited May 9, 2022 by Jack Parkman Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tony Posted May 9, 2022 Share Posted May 9, 2022 4 minutes ago, Jack Parkman said: They're dead last in baseball in OBP, I don’t think that's a coincidence. They have a glut of free swingers. Moncada and Grandal are their only reliable OBP guys. Do I expect them to be dead last all season? No, but bottom 10 seems about right. You didn't answer his question, at all. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jack Parkman Posted May 9, 2022 Share Posted May 9, 2022 (edited) 40 minutes ago, Tony said: You didn't answer his question, at all. He asked me why I thought they wouldn't score enough runs. I answered. I also said I expect positive regression. I expect most players in baseball to have their worst HR/RBI season because I think MLB's goal with the baseball is that one year in the 70s that Jim Rice led the AL with 29 HR. They think fans want the game to be played the way it was in the 60s and 70s. Edited May 9, 2022 by Jack Parkman Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
almagest Posted May 9, 2022 Share Posted May 9, 2022 52 minutes ago, Jack Parkman said: They're dead last in baseball in OBP, I don’t think that's a coincidence. They have a glut of free swingers. Moncada and Grandal are their only reliable OBP guys. Do I expect them to be dead last all season? No, but bottom 10 seems about right. They're not though. The Sox are 27th. The Blue Jays and Astros are 21st and 22nd right now. I guess those teams are gonna be bottom 10 in offense too. The Guardians are 4th, and they clearly have a top 5 offense in baseball and won't regress at all as the year goes on, with such perennial all-stars as Owen Miller, Andres Gimenez, Steven Kwan and Josh Naylor. All 4 of those will easily finish the year with their current OBP range of .360-.400+. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jack Parkman Posted May 9, 2022 Share Posted May 9, 2022 2 minutes ago, almagest said: They're not though. The Sox are 27th. The Blue Jays and Astros are 21st and 22nd right now. I guess those teams are gonna be bottom 10 in offense too. The Guardians are 4th, and they clearly have a top 5 offense in baseball and won't regress at all as the year goes on, with such perennial all-stars as Owen Miller, Andres Gimenez, Steven Kwan and Josh Naylor. All 4 of those will easily finish the year with their current OBP range of .360-.400+. Sorry for taking Josh Nelson's word for it on the radio. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
almagest Posted May 9, 2022 Share Posted May 9, 2022 (edited) 3 minutes ago, Jack Parkman said: Sorry for taking Josh Nelson's word for it on the radio. It's ok. I forgive you Edited May 9, 2022 by almagest Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Look at Ray Ray Run Posted May 9, 2022 Share Posted May 9, 2022 1 hour ago, Jack Parkman said: I think we should still be concerned. They feel like Cleveland last year. This looks to me like a .500 team. Whether that means 84 wins or 78 I have no idea, but I think they're going to be in that range. I don't think they're going to score enough runs to make the playoffs in the AL. The pitching will have to carry them. LOL Jack, this is always your problem. Ready to jump off the ledge when things are bad, proclaiming you knew this was coming and then being all-in on the "badness." Then when they start playing well, you don't do the opposite. It's really nonsense. 1. Comparing them to Cleveland last year? Cleveland was 22nd in all of baseball in pitching WAR last year. The White Sox, without Lance Lynn, have the 7th highest pitcher fWAR in baseball in 2022. 2. Did I miss Tim Anderson, Luis Robert, Jose Abreu, Moncada, and Vaughn in Cleveland's lineup last year? White Sox have 4 regulars over 114 wRC+ without Moncada despite the slow start. Cleveland only had two hitters all last year who played over 100 games with a wRC+ over 100. Comparing the bad Cleveland offense to the Sox this year is absurd. I'll take the Sox over 84 wins for whatever you want to bet. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoeC Posted May 9, 2022 Share Posted May 9, 2022 2 hours ago, southsider2k5 said: Couldn't he have organized the data better? Do balls horizontally (0, 1, 2, 3), and go top-to-bottom for strikes (0, 1, 2). The chart as it is takes unnecessarily long to read... not sure what is the order. Also, would be interested to know: 1) What is the ML average for each count (as others have posited) 2) How many "takes" are there for each of these counts. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Look at Ray Ray Run Posted May 9, 2022 Share Posted May 9, 2022 56 minutes ago, Jack Parkman said: He asked me why I thought they wouldn't score enough runs. I answered. I also said I expect positive regression. I expect most players in baseball to have their worst HR/RBI season because I think MLB's goal with the baseball is that one year in the 70s that Jim Rice led the AL with 29 HR. They think fans want the game to be played the way it was in the 60s and 70s. LOL there are over 35 players in MLB this year on pace to hit more than 32 homers. There are 13 players on pace for more than 40 homers. 4 on pace to hit over 50. Those paces won't all continue, and the ball is certainly hurting offense, but as it gets warmer offense will get better, not worse. 29 homers lol. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Look at Ray Ray Run Posted May 9, 2022 Share Posted May 9, 2022 12 minutes ago, almagest said: It's ok. I forgive you Let's not forget the White Sox have played in the worst weather in baseball this year and bad weather absolutely suppresses offensive output. Walking was contagious for this team last year. Yoan will get in the lineup and Yaz will get going (already signs of this with him walking more lately which was the first sign of his explosion) and the OBP and walk rate will go up naturally. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ptatc Posted May 9, 2022 Share Posted May 9, 2022 (edited) 22 minutes ago, Look at Ray Ray Run said: LOL Jack, this is always your problem. Ready to jump off the ledge when things are bad, proclaiming you knew this was coming and then being all-in on the "badness." Then when they start playing well, you don't do the opposite. It's really nonsense. 1. Comparing them to Cleveland last year? Cleveland was 22nd in all of baseball in pitching WAR last year. The White Sox, without Lance Lynn, have the 7th highest pitcher fWAR in baseball in 2022. 2. Did I miss Tim Anderson, Luis Robert, Jose Abreu, Moncada, and Vaughn in Cleveland's lineup last year? White Sox have 4 regulars over 114 wRC+ without Moncada despite the slow start. Cleveland only had two hitters all last year who played over 100 games with a wRC+ over 100. Comparing the bad Cleveland offense to the Sox this year is absurd. I'll take the Sox over 84 wins for whatever you want to bet. We need to hold him to his promise of not being negative all the time. He tends to dig himself a hole as you are pointing out. They have too many good players to be this bad for offense all season. They may not be as good as we thought but they won't be this bad. Only 2 players currently have an OPS over 700. That won't last. Edited May 9, 2022 by ptatc 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
almagest Posted May 9, 2022 Share Posted May 9, 2022 (edited) 2 minutes ago, ptatc said: We need to hold hom tobhis promise of not being negative all the time. He tends to dig himself a hole as you are pointing out. They have too many good players to be this bad for offense all season. They may not be as good as we thought but they won't be this bad. Only 2 players currently have an OPS over 700. That won't last. Too many black holes right now. Mendick, Leury, Sheets, Burger, Harrison and McGuire taking up 3-5 lineup spots every day. Get Moncada and Vaughn back and you're back to hopefully only 1 bad hitter per day. Edited May 9, 2022 by almagest Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tony Posted May 9, 2022 Share Posted May 9, 2022 2 minutes ago, almagest said: Too many black holes right now. Mendick, Leury, Sheets, Burger, Harrison and McGuire taking up 3-5 lineup spots every day. Get Moncada and Vaughn back and you're back to hopefully only 1 bad hitter per day. A lot of people are correct in here that they won't be this bad for the whole season, the weather will help things, and MLB probably goes back to a super ball in the Summer because they are idiots and can't stop messing with things. The concern is still the offense not being able to hit RHP. Will it improve? Yes. Will they be able to make an impact against good RHP in the playoffs? I have serious concerns, and that's really all that matters after 1st round playoff exits in the back to back years Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ptatc Posted May 9, 2022 Share Posted May 9, 2022 4 minutes ago, almagest said: Too many black holes right now. Mendick, Leury, Sheets, Burger, Harrison and McGuire taking up 3-5 lineup spots every day. Get Moncada and Vaughn back and you're back to hopefully only 1 bad hitter per day. The good hitters aren't exactly producing now, that's the bigger issue. If they were counting on the above players to carry them that's one thing. But Grandal, Abreu, Robert and Pollock are exactly hitting well either. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
almagest Posted May 9, 2022 Share Posted May 9, 2022 15 minutes ago, ptatc said: The good hitters aren't exactly producing now, that's the bigger issue. If they were counting on the above players to carry them that's one thing. But Grandal, Abreu, Robert and Pollock are exactly hitting well either. You over-rely on those guys when 1/3 - 1/2 of your lineup can't produce. You can also pitch around those guys, and when they're already aggressive and already trying to do too much... Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
almagest Posted May 9, 2022 Share Posted May 9, 2022 18 minutes ago, Tony said: A lot of people are correct in here that they won't be this bad for the whole season, the weather will help things, and MLB probably goes back to a super ball in the Summer because they are idiots and can't stop messing with things. The concern is still the offense not being able to hit RHP. Will it improve? Yes. Will they be able to make an impact against good RHP in the playoffs? I have serious concerns, and that's really all that matters after 1st round playoff exits in the back to back years Moncada plus Grandal and Pollock getting on track should help there. Vaughn before injury was also hitting righties well. I think if you can get everyone back consistently they'll start hitting righties much better. We'll see if that's enough for top tier right handed starters in the post season. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jack Parkman Posted May 9, 2022 Share Posted May 9, 2022 21 minutes ago, Tony said: A lot of people are correct in here that they won't be this bad for the whole season, the weather will help things, and MLB probably goes back to a super ball in the Summer because they are idiots and can't stop messing with things. The concern is still the offense not being able to hit RHP. Will it improve? Yes. Will they be able to make an impact against good RHP in the playoffs? I have serious concerns, and that's really all that matters after 1st round playoff exits in the back to back years Shit, I don't even think they're going to be this bad all year. I do think that the OBP and RHP issues are real though. I hate to break it to everyone, but including relievers a conservative estimate is that 75% of pitchers throw with their right hand. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tony Posted May 9, 2022 Share Posted May 9, 2022 26 minutes ago, Jack Parkman said: Shit, I don't even think they're going to be this bad all year. I do think that the OBP and RHP issues are real though. I hate to break it to everyone, but including relievers a conservative estimate is that 75% of pitchers throw with their right hand. Quote MLB rosters reflect this preference for lefties today. Although just 10 percent of American males throw with their left hand, fully 28 percent of innings thrown by MLB pitchers in the past decade2 — and 29 percent of starts — came from the left side. Remarkably, lefty pitchers make it to the big leagues about three times as frequently as righties, given their share of the general population. What accounts for this huge surplus of southpaws? https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/what-really-gives-left-handed-pitchers-their-edge/ You'll never stop posting stats that are just made up in your head that would have taken you 8 seconds to Google, like I did. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jack Parkman Posted May 9, 2022 Share Posted May 9, 2022 (edited) 8 minutes ago, Tony said: https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/what-really-gives-left-handed-pitchers-their-edge/ You'll never stop posting stats that are just made up in your head that would have taken you 8 seconds to Google, like I did. I was close. Was working, didn't have time to look it up. Edited May 9, 2022 by Jack Parkman Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tony Posted May 9, 2022 Share Posted May 9, 2022 1 minute ago, Jack Parkman said: I was close. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
caulfield12 Posted May 9, 2022 Share Posted May 9, 2022 2 hours ago, Look at Ray Ray Run said: LOL Jack, this is always your problem. Ready to jump off the ledge when things are bad, proclaiming you knew this was coming and then being all-in on the "badness." Then when they start playing well, you don't do the opposite. It's really nonsense. 1. Comparing them to Cleveland last year? Cleveland was 22nd in all of baseball in pitching WAR last year. The White Sox, without Lance Lynn, have the 7th highest pitcher fWAR in baseball in 2022. 2. Did I miss Tim Anderson, Luis Robert, Jose Abreu, Moncada, and Vaughn in Cleveland's lineup last year? White Sox have 4 regulars over 114 wRC+ without Moncada despite the slow start. Cleveland only had two hitters all last year who played over 100 games with a wRC+ over 100. Comparing the bad Cleveland offense to the Sox this year is absurd. I'll take the Sox over 84 wins for whatever you want to bet. The Indians have Bieber, Plesac and Civale back again after missing long stretches of 2021...so that aspect will be better. Bieber is not as good as 2-3 years ago, but McKenzie and Quantrill have both pitched well. They also have four former NL West players who were all considered expendable in their starting lineup...to go along with Lindor-linked imports Gimenez/Rosario and April Rookie of Month Kwan, who pretty much has to regress eventually. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ron883 Posted May 9, 2022 Share Posted May 9, 2022 1 minute ago, caulfield12 said: The Indians have Bieber, Plesac and Civale back again after missing long stretches of 2021...so that aspect will be better. Bieber is not as good as 2-3 years ago, but McKenzie and Quantrill have both pitched well. They also have four former NL West players who were all considered expendable in their starting lineup...to go along with Lindor-linked imports Gimenez/Rosario and April Rookie of Month Kwan, who pretty much has to regress eventually. They also have Konnor Pilkington Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Look at Ray Ray Run Posted May 9, 2022 Share Posted May 9, 2022 2 minutes ago, caulfield12 said: The Indians have Bieber, Plesac and Civale back again after missing long stretches of 2021...so that aspect will be better. Bieber is not as good as 2-3 years ago, but McKenzie and Quantrill have both pitched well. They also have four former NL West players who were all considered expendable in their starting lineup...to go along with Lindor-linked imports Gimenez/Rosario and April Rookie of Month Kwan, who pretty much has to regress eventually. What does any of this have to do with Jack saying the 2022 White Sox are the 2021 Guardians? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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