Contenders/pretenders

[Balta1701]

Have been watching this for a while and have to take the bus today because of weather so let’s write this. 

A solid predictor of future performance and team quality is run differential. If teams are winning close games but getting blown out in losses, they will have a record better than their run differential and often that means their record will correct eventually with a batch of losses in close games.

The White Sox are at -30 this year. That is 24th in baseball, between the Rockies and the Orioles. This is legitimately bad. They are way worse than the Cubs or Red Sox on this, they are down with the Tigers. 

This is a team that has played extremely bad baseball overall, and this is why the fans are pessimistic despite their record - they have played way worse than their record. This is also bad enough that its not something that one player returning from injury will fix.

Whatever other metric you attach - strength of schedule or whatever else - doesn’t help this. 

Context is useful here. Last year the White Sox had a +147 run differential - not the Dodgers or Astros but a legit playoff team. This is a team playing dramatically worse than last year. A few other teams like the Red Sox, Blue Jays, and Reds have similar dramatic drop offs and they are not good teams right now.

What about last years’ Braves? In mid May they had a -15 run differential. By June 1 it was back to close to 0, it hung close to 0 throughout June, then they were at +40 by the trade deadline - not a dominant team but a legitimate wild card threat before adding players. That’s what we need to be doing literally right now - winning games solidly and moving that back towards 0 by mid June.

Right now this team looks like pretenders because they look like the Orioles or Tigers. In run differential they dropped from 0 during that first losing streak, hovered for a week, and then kept getting worse. If we are talking about a team on Memorial Day that has a -40 run differential, which is what they’re on pace for then they might well be a true 3rd place team.

[SCCWS]

11 hours ago, HOFHurt35 said:

Ask the Braves.

Not sure why some of you guys always assume the best regular season teams will always come out on top.

If you get in and healthy ( being the key ) you always have a chance.

Agree. Also as we saw w the Braves, mid-season acquisitions can have a major impact.  It is a long season and some teams in mid-May will look and perform  much differently in September. 

[Highland]

The Sox will improve as injured players return, but the last Yankees game was a bad loss. Two-out walks led to all the Yankee runs. And the team has shown some bad base running and a weak defense. Those factors will remain and has to concern fans even with the bad division. Something is lacking with this team and that is why it has a record slightly below .500. Making comparisons to other teams and other years does not impress me. We have to live in the present.

[ShoeLessRob]

 

[Flash]

1 hour ago, Balta1701 said:

Right now this team looks like pretenders because they look like the Orioles or Tigers. In run differential they dropped from 0 during that first losing streak, hovered for a week, and then kept getting worse. If we are talking about a team on Memorial Day that has a -40 run differential, which is what they’re on pace for then they might well be a true 3rd place team.

Good context and rationale. The challenge is what needs to happen to turn things around? If you just focus on player moves, you have to start with the two highest paid guys and sort out how to proceed. Abreu's contract expires after this year and it will be interesting to see what the team will do, but, in meantime, he has become an easy out. The same can be said for Grandal but he at least provides defensive value and I'd expect his OPS to climb from current depths. I also have to wonder about clubhouse and locker room dynamic. Sox rely on a mix of Latino and US born contributors but its not obvious who the team looks to for collective leadership. They don't seem to be responding to TLRs leadership.

[Jack Parkman]

 

 

 

[Balta1701]

1 hour ago, Flash said:

Good context and rationale. The challenge is what needs to happen to turn things around? If you just focus on player moves, you have to start with the two highest paid guys and sort out how to proceed. Abreu's contract expires after this year and it will be interesting to see what the team will do, but, in meantime, he has become an easy out. The same can be said for Grandal but he at least provides defensive value and I'd expect his OPS to climb from current depths. I also have to wonder about clubhouse and locker room dynamic. Sox rely on a mix of Latino and US born contributors but its not obvious who the team looks to for collective leadership. They don't seem to be responding to TLRs leadership.

It's a combined effort but the answer is - they need to beat up a few teams over the next 2 weeks. They can't squeak by the Royals for 2 wins this week then get blown out by the Yankees twice next weekend. The weather is no longer an excuse, Moncada is back and actually killing the ball for now, Vaughn is back. There should be offensive ability here on paper, and there is clearly pitching ability although it has underperformed as well. We need to put together some complete games. Score 7 and give up 2 runs a few times.

We also see this in the bullpen - people were talking over the weekend about how Graveman and Hendriks were on pace for like 80 appearances and that was why LaRussa wouldn't use them on Friday? Why is that happening? Because they get days off when the White Sox get blown out, but every time the White Sox win it's a close game, and that means the bullpen main guys are in demand every time as without using those guys they probably lose. 

Quite simply, they need to get their act together in every way. The offense stands out the most because people are paying attention to it, but the pitching is way worse than it was supposed to be in both the rotation and the bullpen, and the defense has been the worst in baseball.

The Dodgers are at +70. The Astros are at +40. If Abreu and Grandal were hitting normally, would they have scored 70 more runs in a month, to keep Up with legit contenders? Naw. Quite simply, they need to play better in every aspect of the game. One guy hitting better is not enough to dig out of this hole.

[Greg Hibbard]

3 hours ago, Balta1701 said:

Have been watching this for a while and have to take the bus today because of weather so let’s write this. 

A solid predictor of future performance and team quality is run differential. If teams are winning close games but getting blown out in losses, they will have a record better than their run differential and often that means their record will correct eventually with a batch of losses in close games.

The White Sox are at -30 this year. That is 24th in baseball, between the Rockies and the Orioles. This is legitimately bad. They are way worse than the Cubs or Red Sox on this, they are down with the Tigers. 

This is a team that has played extremely bad baseball overall, and this is why the fans are pessimistic despite their record - they have played way worse than their record. This is also bad enough that its not something that one player returning from injury will fix.

Whatever other metric you attach - strength of schedule or whatever else - doesn’t help this. 

Context is useful here. Last year the White Sox had a +147 run differential - not the Dodgers or Astros but a legit playoff team. This is a team playing dramatically worse than last year. A few other teams like the Red Sox, Blue Jays, and Reds have similar dramatic drop offs and they are not good teams right now.

What about last years’ Braves? In mid May they had a -15 run differential. By June 1 it was back to close to 0, it hung close to 0 throughout June, then they were at +40 by the trade deadline - not a dominant team but a legitimate wild card threat before adding players. That’s what we need to be doing literally right now - winning games solidly and moving that back towards 0 by mid June.

Right now this team looks like pretenders because they look like the Orioles or Tigers. In run differential they dropped from 0 during that first losing streak, hovered for a week, and then kept getting worse. If we are talking about a team on Memorial Day that has a -40 run differential, which is what they’re on pace for then they might well be a true 3rd place team.

But to what extent is 33 games a large enough sample size to be an accurate predictor of the rest of the season?

More specifically to the Braves, they were -22 through their 16-17 start last year. I know what the response is to all these Braves comparisons, but if run differential is supposed to be indicative of future playoff success…in that case it wasn’t. 

Edited May 16, 2022 by Greg Hibbard

[Balta1701]

49 minutes ago, Greg Hibbard said:

But to what extent is 33 games a large enough sample size to be an accurate predictor of the rest of the season?

More specifically to the Braves, they were -22 through their 16-17 start last year. I know what the response is to all these Braves comparisons, but if run differential is supposed to be indicative of future playoff success…in that case it wasn’t. 

On its own it isn't, but it's getting close to being so. Is 50 games enough? That's Memorial day, give or take, and yeah people start thinking that they know what their team is made of by that point. If this were the NFL, right now is 4 games - if you're 2-2 after 4 games, having been blown out twice and having narrowly won two sloppy games on field goals at the end against teams that missed the playoffs the year before, you don't hate yourself, you're not out of the race by any means, but you might have a team meeting and say "we either play better or we miss the playoffs because those 3 teams that are 4-0 are really going to be tough to catch".

In short, I'm not ready to write this off as a 3rd place team yet, but they better show something soon because this isn't a small fix. This isn't one player needing to play better. It's systematic and everywhere, and the clock is ticking. 

[GREEDY]

15 hours ago, HOFHurt35 said:

Ask the Braves.

Not sure why some of you guys always assume the best regular season teams will always come out on top.

If you get in and healthy ( being the key ) you always have a chance.

Feels like the best regular season team wins 1 out of 3 and no one is surprised.  Feels like the hottest team going into the playoffs wins 1 out of 3 and no one is surprised.  Then the final third is just a random playoff team that isn't the obvious pick for a variety of reasons wins.  I have used zero actual statistical analysis to come to conclusion. 

[Greg Hibbard]

10 minutes ago, Balta1701 said:

On its own it isn't, but it's getting close to being so. Is 50 games enough? That's Memorial day, give or take, and yeah people start thinking that they know what their team is made of by that point. If this were the NFL, right now is 4 games - if you're 2-2 after 4 games, having been blown out twice and having narrowly won two sloppy games on field goals at the end against teams that missed the playoffs the year before, you don't hate yourself, you're not out of the race by any means, but you might have a team meeting and say "we either play better or we miss the playoffs because those 3 teams that are 4-0 are really going to be tough to catch".

In short, I'm not ready to write this off as a 3rd place team yet, but they better show something soon because this isn't a small fix. This isn't one player needing to play better. It's systematic and everywhere, and the clock is ticking. 

I don’t understand people thinking this is potentially a third place team. Even if severely underperform, this team will be in it until the end because nobody else in the Central is very good. 83 games might win this division if the Sox play poorly. Are we equipped to win in the postseason? No. We should still easily win our division if we get fully healthy. 

[Balta1701]

2 minutes ago, Greg Hibbard said:

I don’t understand people thinking this is potentially a third place team. Even if severely underperform, this team will be in it until the end because nobody else in the Central is very good. 83 games might win this division if the Sox play poorly. Are we equipped to win in the postseason? No. We should still easily win our division if we get fully healthy. 

I think it was obvious that the White Sox were likely to be banged up this season, but to put numbers on this - right now, the White Sox are 42 runs behind the Twins in run differential. If no one got hurt, are they 5 WAR better right now? If Lynn was here and Keuchel wasn't, that's 1 WAR. Moncada over Burger, that's 1 WAR. Maybe a half of one for Giolito being out a couple times. You're still behind the Twins - in the race for the Central, but the Twins are still outplaying the White Sox, with an imaginary team that is almost completely healthy (which again, the White Sox were never going to be).

[FoxForce2]

So what is 'the book' on how to pitch the Sox? Seemingly, there is a formula that the league is using to produce grounder after grounder with this team. Menechino talked about getting 'slider'd' to death' a couple of weeks ago - is that part of the equation? I can't remember the last one-hopper line drive to the wall from Robert, much less a 2+ homer series from him. And with Luis, I'm talking about the most talented of our hitters. He's been raising his BA over the past two weeks, but a lot of that has been punching singles through the infield - a good thing for a young guy to be able to do well, but not exactly the .950 OPS caliber of hitting that he's cut out to be doing. Even when the rest of the lineup is getting the ball in the air, it's just so many cans o' corn. That, not even taking into account the abysmal performance in hitting with RISP. Even considering the lowered level of hitting across baseball this year, something is out of whack with this team at the plate and I'm not seeing solutions forthcoming from management/coaching. Or are the batters ignoring guidance and just 'doing their own thing'?  If that's true, the phrase 'loose cannons' comes to mind.

Excuse the stream-of-consciousness in this post, but I don't have a better handle on what's what with this outfit than what the team evidently has. Or the media/fanboards for that matter.
 

Now, warning lights are flashing down at quality control
Somebody threw a spanner, they threw it in the hole
There's rumors in the loading bay and anger in the town
Somebody blew the whistle, and the walls came down
There's a meetin' in the boardroom, they're tryin' to trace the smell
There's a leakin' in the washroom, there's a sneak in personnel
Somewhere in the corridors someone was heard to sneeze
Goodness me, could this be industrial disease?

Edited May 16, 2022 by FoxForce2

[Balta1701]

13 minutes ago, FoxForce2 said:

So what is 'the book' on how to pitch the Sox? Seemingly, there is a formula that the league is using to produce grounder after grounder with this team. Menechino talked about getting 'slider'd' to death' a couple of weeks ago - is that part of the equation? I can't remember the last one-hopper line drive to the wall from Robert, much less a 2+ homer series from him. And with Luis, I'm talking about the most talented of our hitters. He's been raising his BA over the past two weeks, but a lot of that has been punching singles through the infield - a good thing for a young guy to be able to do well, but not exactly the .950 OPS caliber of hitting that he's cut out to be doing. Even when the rest of the lineup is getting the ball in the air, it's just so many cans o' corn. That, not even taking into account the abysmal performance in hitting with RISP. Even considering the lowered level of hitting across baseball this year, something is out of whack with this team at the plate and I'm not seeing solutions forthcoming from management/coaching. Or are the batters just ignoring guidance and just 'doing their own thing'? The phrase 'loose cannons' comes to mind.

Excuse the stream-of-consciousness in this post, but I don't have a better handle on what's what with this outfit than what the team evidently has. Or the media/fanboards for that matter.
 

Now, warning lights are flashing down at quality control
Somebody threw a spanner, they threw it in the hole
There's rumors in the loading bay and anger in the town
Somebody blew the whistle, and the walls came down
There's a meetin' in the boardroom, they're tryin' to trace the smell
There's a leakin' in the washroom, there's a sneak-in personnel
Somewhere in the corridors someone was heard to sneeze
Goodness me, could this be industrial disease?

https://www.mlb.com/whitesox/video/luis-robert-s-2-run-homer That one was his most recent and it was pretty darn good, against Boston. 

[FoxForce2]

3 minutes ago, Balta1701 said:

https://www.mlb.com/whitesox/video/luis-robert-s-2-run-homer That one was his most recent and it was pretty darn good, against Boston. 

And your point being? A 2-run homer is nice, but I referred to a 2 home run series.

[Balta1701]

1 hour ago, Greg Hibbard said:

I don’t understand people thinking this is potentially a third place team. Even if severely underperform, this team will be in it until the end because nobody else in the Central is very good. 83 games might win this division if the Sox play poorly. Are we equipped to win in the postseason? No. We should still easily win our division if we get fully healthy. 

By the way, the White Sox are currently tied in "days players have spent on the IL" for 7th most in MLB, matching the Dodgers, who somehow are as banged up as the White Sox and yet are really good.

[ChiSox59]

Its just so frustrating that what plagues this team was so obvious and they did nothing to address it.  Everybody who pays attention knew it.  Hahn knew it, and said as much.  Yet did nothing to address it.  Just mind boggling.  

That being said, if we went into the season knowing Pollock, Grandal, Abreu would have wRC+ of 25, 49, and 77 respectively 35 games into the season, and that Eloy would get seriously hurt 10 games in and Moncada would miss the first 30 games, Gio two IL stints by mid May and zero starts from Lynn, we'd all probably take a 16-17 start and just 3 GB.  Sox have played bad enough to be absolutely buried at this point, but they aren't.    

Edited May 16, 2022 by ChiSox59

[SoxBlanco]

25 minutes ago, Balta1701 said:

By the way, the White Sox are currently tied in "days players have spent on the IL" for 7th most in MLB, matching the Dodgers, who somehow are as banged up as the White Sox and yet are really good.

That stat is always misleading because the quality of the player on the IL means so much.

Now, I have no clue who the Dodgers have been without, so perhaps they have missed some games from pretty important players as well.  But missing Lynn, Giolito, Moncada, Vaughn, and Eloy has really hurt.

Is there a stat that exists that takes WAR/162 from the previous season or the previous few seasons and multiplies it by the games missed due to IL for each player?  To me, that would paint a much more accurate picture of who has been hurt the most by injuries.

Edited May 16, 2022 by SoxBlanco

[Taz]

Pretending to contend and pissing the fans off for lack of effort.

[pcq]

I would apply a real simple rule. Guys who are not hitting don't play. They sit half the time and the others sit too. You don't get to play every day when you produce no offense.

[Greg Hibbard]

1 hour ago, Balta1701 said:

I think it was obvious that the White Sox were likely to be banged up this season, but to put numbers on this - right now, the White Sox are 42 runs behind the Twins in run differential. If no one got hurt, are they 5 WAR better right now? If Lynn was here and Keuchel wasn't, that's 1 WAR. Moncada over Burger, that's 1 WAR. Maybe a half of one for Giolito being out a couple times. You're still behind the Twins - in the race for the Central, but the Twins are still outplaying the White Sox, with an imaginary team that is almost completely healthy (which again, the White Sox were never going to be).

Nothing out of your analysis indicates that you think that any players will perform way above where they have been to date - which even if they aren’t .800 OPS up and down the lineup, they aren’t all this bad. You really can’t believe twe will continue to get sub .632 OPSes out of seven different players covering about 5 positions in the lineup over their next 550+ PAs. I’m sorry, but that’s not sustainable no matter whether these players are done or just cold. They will get hot or we will make changes. We will get more WAR out of these lineup positions. 

 

[South Side Hit Men]

15 hours ago, Jack Parkman said:

 

 

 

Bump Vaughn up from the 9 hole and play him more and he'll surpass 20.

Robert and Abreu will definitely surpass 20 assuming they  stay healthy.

Sheets and Grandal have a  decent chance if they can get in 120 games.

[GREEDY]

TLR is the ultimate fall-guy for the front office.  

What a dream scenario for Hahn if your only goal is survival.  

[Balta1701]

2 hours ago, GREEDY said:

TLR is the ultimate fall-guy for the front office.  

What a dream scenario for Hahn if your only goal is survival.  

Narrator: “and thats how Rick Hahn became the fall guy.”

[raBBit]

2 hours ago, GREEDY said:

TLR is the ultimate fall-guy for the front office.  

What a dream scenario for Hahn if your only goal is survival.  

Lol. You think Hahn wanted this situation?