TA7 Extension...how much?

[caulfield12]

With all the uncertainty about TLR and Abreu and Giolito, it seems like this would be the biggest move that Jerry Reinsdorf could possibly make to demonstrate his commitment to the White Sox competitive window and franchise in general.

Send a signal to all of baseball he's going to play his entire career for the White Sox.

Obviously, emotions are high after this weekend.  We know all of his flaws on defense, losses of concentration/focus and his lack of walks.   You can add hitting with RISP in the early going this year as well.

BUT...BUT...BUT

He's the heart of the team and the clear leader now, there's no question about it.  The most high-profile national identity or recognition level as a player, as well.  Far and away the most marketable player on the team.  Heck, he already has his own mini-series/YouTube documentary, right?

 

TA7 will turn 32 years old (June 2025), fwiw.

2 1/2 more years remaining on his current contract, including option years.

The last time we had a similar situation, we kept Paul Konerko and jettisoned Mark Buehrle...but that was the TAIL END of the 2005 championship team's run, and the manager of that team was also leaving simultaneously under questionable (at best) circumstances.

 

I'm going to argue that with a TA extension it has to be at least 6 years and roughly $200 million...although the White Sox might start discussions in the $175 range.

If you're not planning to extend Lucas Giolito, and you want to show your commitment to a winner, you make this move.

(That obviously doesn't mean JR will follow this advice and he might consider the "opportunity cost" of paying that out for an "aging" speed-based player too onerous.  Whatever happens, it's going to play a massive role in determining the future of this organization, as the odds of retaining Luis Robert on his current trajectory are pretty much slim and none.)

Edited May 23, 2022 by caulfield12

[Spumoni]

Ugh, been thinking about this and it’s such a no-brainer that the alternative hurts. TA lives in Chicago. He’s made his home here, not just as a player but as a person. He’s quickly become one of my favorite Sox players of all-time and the thought of him leaving hurts.

If I had to guess I think Jerry fucks this one up and it’s gonna kill me and a million other fans. If there’s a player he should seek to make a lifelong White Sox it’s TA7.

[caulfield12]

1 minute ago, Spumoni said:

Ugh, been thinking about this and it’s such a no-brainer that the alternative hurts. TA lives in Chicago. He’s made his home here, not just as a player but as a person. He’s quickly become one of my favorite Sox players of all-time and the thought of him leaving hurts.

If I had to guess I think Jerry fucks this one up and it’s gonna kill me and a million other fans. If there’s a player he should seek to make a lifelong White Sox it’s TA7.

The only arguments against this were 1) the sad ending of Konerko's career with the White Sox, and 2) the fact that we jettisoned Magglio, C-Lee and Valentin in 2004-05 off season in order to bring in a ton of veteran players that were cumulatively at about the same cost as those three veteran favorites.

But when you have a position player like that, and not a pitcher (and we all understand the economics of the Buehrle move and what it was made at that point in his career), you almost have to do it.

It's not unlike the Red Sox with Betts (obviously he's an MVP caliber guy) or the Yankees letting Judge walk...Rockies with Arenado, etc.

 

So with all the bitterness and recriminations about the Sox endings for numerous Sox players under the JR regime, you (I will repeat myself again) HAVE TO DO IT.  Even if you're selling the team...and especially if you want to keep it in Chicago forever and/or build a new stadium (eventually).

[WBWSF]

Lindor signed a contract worth $341 million with the Mets. For  the sake of discussion  I think its fair to say that Anderson is as good as Lindor. Anderson is probably going to be looking at the same type of money as Lindor received.  In Spring Training Anderson talked openly about wanting a contract extension with the White Sox. Whether or not the White Sox have approached him about an extension is unkown.  The White Sox #1 prospect is a shortstop is Montgomery. His estimated arrival time coming up is 2025. Andersons contract with the White Sox runs out after the 2024 season. Also the 2022 White Sox media guide  says that Andersons main residence is Litchfield Arizona. He has moved his family from the Chicagoland area. All things considered I don't think JR will resign Anderson. He will be gone after the 2024 season.

[Squirmin' for Yermin]

9 minutes ago, WBWSF said:

Lindor signed a contract worth $341 million with the Mets. For  the sake of discussion  I think its fair to say that Anderson is as good as Lindor. Anderson is probably going to be looking at the same type of money as Lindor received.  In Spring Training Anderson talked openly about wanting a contract extension with the White Sox. Whether or not the White Sox have approached him about an extension is unkown.  The White Sox #1 prospect is a shortstop is Montgomery. His estimated arrival time coming up is 2025. Andersons contract with the White Sox runs out after the 2024 season. Also the 2022 White Sox media guide  says that Andersons main residence is Litchfield Arizona. He has moved his family from the Chicagoland area. All things considered I don't think JR will resign Anderson. He will be gone after the 2024 season.

When Lindor signed his contract his was one of the best defensive and offensive shortstops..  Anderson couldn't snip is jock strap on D.  If Anderson is a 250 million+ guy, I'd have to let him walk.

[CentralChamps21]

If TA wants to play for the Sox beyond the end of his current option years, he would have to be willing to 1) play for below market value and 2) move from SS. No way the Sox are going to pay market value for a 32 year old SS, not even TA.

[caulfield12]

24 minutes ago, WBWSF said:

Lindor signed a contract worth $341 million with the Mets. For  the sake of discussion  I think its fair to say that Anderson is as good as Lindor. Anderson is probably going to be looking at the same type of money as Lindor received.  In Spring Training Anderson talked openly about wanting a contract extension with the White Sox. Whether or not the White Sox have approached him about an extension is unkown.  The White Sox #1 prospect is a shortstop is Montgomery. His estimated arrival time coming up is 2025. Andersons contract with the White Sox runs out after the 2024 season. Also the 2022 White Sox media guide  says that Andersons main residence is Litchfield Arizona. He has moved his family from the Chicagoland area. All things considered I don't think JR will resign Anderson. He will be gone after the 2024 season.

Lindor signed that ten year deal when he was 27 years old.

In baseball terms, that's a massive difference from signing beginning in a year that someone turns 32.

You can argue it would take another year or two, making it 7 years rather than six, and $225-250 million rather than something in the $340 range Lindor got over ten.

But comparing again, Years 27-31 would/should be the last five prime years of Lindor's career, whereas Tim perhaps would already be declining by 32 and you're paying quite a bit for past production.

$12.5 and $14.0 million are already options years for 2023-24, so you can look at it like 8 years for around let's say $225-230 million...or 9 years for $250-270 million.

That would be through 37 OR 38 years old.  But I don't see him quite reaching much more than mid $200's in the end. That's basically overpaying him ala Konerko for his past value to the team, leadership and so he could retire a White Sox.

 

Counting on a low first rounder to be a regular player is a bad bet in Sox recent draft history, though,  unless you are TA7 himself or Chris Sale.  They were much higher first rounders, too.

To summarize, counting on Montgomery to take TA's spot is even a bigger risk than counting on Colas for RF in 2024.

 

Edited May 23, 2022 by caulfield12

[southsideirish71]

 

JR the minute you start talking about paying anything close to market value for TA.    

Kenny "We offered Tim more money than the other team.  Yes, they offered more guaranteed money but ours had two years of team options for more money based on strict performance options that we can control like ABs.  But the total money value is more if he hits those.  I don't know why he took the guaranteed offer over ours. " 

[ChiSox59]

We still have him under  control for 2.75 seasons.  I don't think we need to worry about the extension quite yet.  He'll be 32 in his first FA season....I'd love to keep him around, but he'll be at an age where you cannot really back up the truck.  

I say at least let 22 and 23 play out and see where we stand then. No reason to extend him right now unless he's willing to take (another) team friendly deal.  Doubtful IMO. 

Edited May 23, 2022 by ChiSox59

[WBWSF]

8 minutes ago, caulfield12 said:

Lindor signed that ten year deal when he was 27 years old.

In baseball terms, that's a massive difference from signing beginning in a year that someone turns 32.

You can argue it would take another year or two, making it 7 years rather than six, and $225-250 million rather than something in the $340 range Lindor got over ten.

But comparing again, Years 27-31 would/should be the last five prime years of Lindor's career, whereas Tim perhaps would already be declining by 32 and you're paying quite a bit for past production.

$12.5 and $14.0 million are already options years for 2023-24, so you can look at it like 8 years for around let's say $225-230 million...or 9 years for $250-270 million.

That would be through 37 OR 38 years old.  But I don't see him quite reaching much more than mid $200's in the end. That's basically overpaying him ala Konerko for his past value to the team, leadership and so he could retire a White Sox.

 

Counting on a low first rounder to be a regular player is a bad bet in Sox recent draft history, though,  unless you are TA7 himself or Chris Sale.  They were much higher first rounders, too.

To summarize, counting on Montgomery to take TA's spot is even a bigger risk than counting on Colas for RF in 2024.

 

You make some good points. That being said, do you think  the White Sox will sign Anderson to a long term contract?

[pcq]

I was thinking maybe 6x25 given his defense but he is definitely a keeper. Losing him would be a disaster.

[caulfield12]

8 minutes ago, WBWSF said:

You make some good points. That being said, do you think  the White Sox will sign Anderson to a long term contract?

It's like knowing whether JR will still be alive or not, lol.

If we at least advance to an ALCS one of these next three seasons...that's one aspect of it.  And obviously how he looks physically, wear and tear on his body from playing SS and running the bases.  He will become more of a power guy and less someone who steals 20-25 bags over time.  Obviously his range at SS will matter a ton, too.   The overall money would decrease by 15-25% for 2B vs. SS as well.

I would put the odds at somewhere between 25-40% likelihood if I was forced at gunpoint to come up with a range of probability.

Edited May 23, 2022 by caulfield12

[caulfield12]

8 minutes ago, pcq said:

I was thinking maybe 6x25 given his defense but he is definitely a keeper. Losing him would be a disaster.

Then 8 by roughly $175 million including two remaining option years versus TWICE that for Lindor (obviously two years longer and starting at 27 rather than age 31/32 season)???

Lindor's not THAT much more valuable than Anderson, errors be damned.  He certainly wasn't/isn't  based on his play in 2021 and so far this season.

Edited May 23, 2022 by caulfield12

[caulfield12]

Another thing...you're going to pay TA $26.5 million in 2023-24 when you are about to pay Moncada $49 million for 2024-25.  That won't sit well at all if Yoan continues to be the player he has been since 2020.

[Squirmin' for Yermin]

9 minutes ago, caulfield12 said:

Then 8 by roughly $175 million including two remaining option years versus TWICE that for Lindor (obviously two years longer and starting at 27 rather than age 31/32 season)???

Lindor's not THAT much more valuable than Anderson, errors be damned.  He certainly wasn't/isn't  based on his play in 2021 and so far this season.

aNDERSON WILL BE LOOKING AT A sEMIEN LIKE CONTRACT IMO. (non caps)

[caulfield12]

2 minutes ago, Squirmin' for Yermin said:

aNDERSON WILL BE LOOKING AT A sEMIEN LIKE CONTRACT IMO. (non caps)

“This guy is -- he’s as good as anybody playing at that position, and one of the best players in baseball,” said manager Tony La Russa. “So he deserves the recognition, and he deserves the respect. When somebody disrespects him, well, he should get upset. I know I would. Point is, when you talk about how special he is, think about the game he had under those circumstances.”

https://www.mlb.com/news/tim-anderson-homers-white-sox-sweep-yanks-in-doubleheader?partnerId=zh-20220523-610734-mlb-1-A&qid=1026&utm_id=zh-20220523-610734-mlb-1-A&bt_ee=ch2rtDrTQg6DCCWi3dQilTt%2BsDak0hYI31wyue16SjxGnFbkTw4JNyteSmi1Lzh%2F&bt_ts=1653316916644

[Tony]

This premise makes very little sense from a baseball standpoint. 

He’s signed for the next 2 1/2 years. That’s a long time. 2 1/2 years ago, Ivan Nova lead the Sox in innings pitched.

He’s also playing at the absolute highest level he’s ever played at. I could not think of a worst time to sit down at the table with him and his agent. There is zero reason, other than sentiment, for the Sox to engage in extension talks with Anderson right now. See how the next few seasons go. Who knows what the makeup of the team looks like in a few years. If this all goes to shit, I wouldn’t want a 32 year SS locked up for 6/7 more years. If things are going well in two years….you have the discussion.

But generally speaking, giving a long term deal for an ultra-athletic player during his age 33-37 seasons seems like a bad idea. You’re paying for past production, not what you believe he will do during those future years.

[southsider2k5]

Not sure why the Sox would be worried about this yet.  They have two incredibly cheap years left.  Unless TA is willing to tear up those last two years to get a little bit more money, to extend for another 2-3 years at below market value to make up from the extra cash in 23/24 I don't see how a deal makes sense yet.

[caulfield12]

8 minutes ago, southsider2k5 said:

Not sure why the Sox would be worried about this yet.  They have two incredibly cheap years left.  Unless TA is willing to tear up those last two years to get a little bit less more money, to extend for another 2-3 years at below market value to make up from the extra cash in 23/24 I don't see how a deal makes sense yet.

It's certainly going to be quite a bit more than Sal Perez...a similar stature player for his franchise but one not as nationally acclaimed and as Anderson is.  Sal Perez doesn't make a game cover.

Plus, we already have the failed Giolito extension numbers to look at.  If we are not investing in Gio, Anderson or Robert (for various reasons)...you only have Vaughn, Cease and Kopech left.

The Kansas City Royals have given six-time All-Star catcher Salvador Perez the richest contract in club history, a four-year, $82 million deal that begins in 2022. The contract includes a club option worth an additional $13.5 million and has a $2 million buyout for 2026.

Edited May 23, 2022 by caulfield12

[southsider2k5]

4 minutes ago, caulfield12 said:

It's certainly going to be quite a bit more than Sal Perez...a similar stature player for his franchise but one not as acclaimed as Anderson is.

The Kansas City Royals have given six-time All-Star catcher Salvador Perez the richest contract in club history, a four-year, $82 million deal that begins in 2022. The contract includes a club option worth an additional $13.5 million and has a $2 million buyout for 2026.

I see something like 4/100 or 5/125 with tearing up the last two years of this deal.  I don't see anything longer making sense for the Sox, but I also think Tony was right earlier in that I don't get the motivation at this stage for the Sox side of this.  Are you really that worried about his mid 30's years at this stage?

[Jerksticks]

28 minutes ago, Tony said:

This premise makes very little sense from a baseball standpoint. 

He’s signed for the next 2 1/2 years. That’s a long time. 2 1/2 years ago, Ivan Nova lead the Sox in innings pitched.

He’s also playing at the absolute highest level he’s ever played at. I could not think of a worst time to sit down at the table with him and his agent. There is zero reason, other than sentiment, for the Sox to engage in extension talks with Anderson right now. See how the next few seasons go. Who knows what the makeup of the team looks like in a few years. If this all goes to shit, I wouldn’t want a 32 year SS locked up for 6/7 more years. If things are going well in two years….you have the discussion.

But generally speaking, giving a long term deal for an ultra-athletic player during his age 33-37 seasons seems like a bad idea. You’re paying for past production, not what you believe he will do during those future years.

Totally.  Hopefully the Sox AND TA aren’t even beginning to think about any of this, let alone talk about it.  What a terrible idea for the Sox right now.  

[The Kids Can Play]

1 hour ago, Squirmin' for Yermin said:

When Lindor signed his contract his was one of the best defensive and offensive shortstops..  Anderson couldn't snip is jock strap on D.  If Anderson is a 250 million+ guy, I'd have to let him walk.

Anderson might not be as good defensively as Lindor is, but Lindor couldn't sniff TA's jock strap when it comes to offense. When Lindor signed his 10 year 341 million contract in 2021, he was not one of the best shortstops as far as offense. 

Since 2019:

Lindor        '19  .284
                    '20  .258
                    '21  .230
                    '22  .239

Anderson  '19  .335
                    '20  .322
                    '21  .309
                    '22  .359

Keep in mind, that nobody has discussed yet, which is the fact TA stays in amazing shape. At 32 yrs old, I think he will still be hitting great! The Sox will not let TA walk if he is still producing like he is now and still in great physical shape.

[caulfield12]

17 minutes ago, southsider2k5 said:

I see something like 4/100 or 5/125 with tearing up the last two years of this deal.  I don't see anything longer making sense for the Sox, but I also think Tony was right earlier in that I don't get the motivation at this stage for the Sox side of this.  Are you really that worried about his mid 30's years at this stage?

Right now, we’re in a bit of flux, aren’t we?   Probably something in the vicinity of 5-6, but perhaps as many as 7 games out when the Twins face the Yankees the first week of June.   Then the schedule will turn and really start bearing down on Minny, hence the Sox being the FG probability favorites to win the division by about 5%.

But what is the actual direction of this franchise?  I suppose right now the short term storyline is simply waiting on Lynn and Jimenez, but every minute the clock is ticking on the veterans, especially Grandal and Abreu.

Maybe they’ll come around.  Who knows?

But this (still) feels almost more like a team in transition than one prepared for a deep playoff run.

Jimenez and Moncada to a lesser extent are BIG question marks…Giolito is another with the extension tabled and perhaps gone for good, then Kopech brilliant but who knows how many innings we can push him?  We are starting to see the outlines of a great playoff rotation, but there are just so many remaining issues to be resolved.

Biggest is whether TLR can somehow improve.  He’s showing some signs on outfield defensive replacements and McGuire, but there are the baffling lack of late PHing moves, bizarre lineups and rest patterns, starting Vaughn and Sheets in the same outfield.

Just feels like a CLOUDY overall franchise forecast.  In the end, we really won’t know enough about this team until July or August when all the parts are assembled and the TDL has passed.

[southsider2k5]

Just now, caulfield12 said:

Right now, we’re in a bit of flux, aren’t we?   Probably something in the vicinity of 5-6, but perhaps as many as 7 games out when the Twins face the Yankees the first week of June.   Then the schedule will turn and really start bearing down on Minny, hence the Sox being the FG probability favorites to win the division by about 5%.

But what is the actual direction of this franchise?  I suppose right now the short term storyline is simply waiting on Lynn and Jimenez, but every minute the clock is ticking on the veterans, especially Grandal and Abreu.

Maybe they’ll come around.  Who knows?

But this (still) feels almost more like a team in transition than one prepared for a deep playoff run.

Jimenez and Moncada to a lesser extent are BIG question marks…Giolito is another with the extension tabled and perhaps gone for good, then Kopech brilliant but who knows how many innings we can push him?  We are starting to see the outlines of a great playoff rotation, but there are just so many remaining issues to be resolved.

Biggest is whether TLR can somehow improve.  He’s showing some signs on outfield defensive replacements and McGuire, but there are the baffling lack of late PHing moves, bizarre lineups and rest patterns, starting Vaughn and Sheets in the same outfield.

Just feels like a CLOUDY overall franchise forecast.  In the end, we really won’t know enough about this team until July or August when all the parts are assembled and the TDL has passed.

Not sure how this related to why the Sox want to extend TA already, but sure.

[caulfield12]

15 minutes ago, Jerksticks said:

Totally.  Hopefully the Sox AND TA aren’t even beginning to think about any of this, let alone talk about it.  What a terrible idea for the Sox right now.  

LOL.  I guarantee if Giolito is internally being counted out as gone then it’s either finding money for TA, Robert (highly highly unlikely)…or Vaughn/Cease/Kopech.  There’s really no clear answer there other than waiting.