Sox have outperformed run differential

[Dominikk85]

The sox didn't have a great start at 21-20 but good news is it could have been worse. 

Sox have scored 148 runs and allowed 170 which should have been an 18-23 record. 

The bad run differential is mainly created by an underperforming offense (91 ops+ combined) while pitching has been fine especially considering the injuries (103 era+). 

 

Now you could also see that negatively as you could expect regression but it also means sox have won some extra games they shouldn't have won and those games still count. 

Now it is important that the offense is turning it around. 

Pitching will be fine as long there aren't too many injuries but grandal (56 ops+), jose (93 ops+), moncada (56 ops+) and eloy (72 ops+) simply need to turn it around, then there even can be some regression by tim and robert and sox should easily win the division. 

But they just need at least 3 out of those "big 4" to be above average hitters, especially eloy, grandal and moncada can't hit below replacement level. 

 

Considering that 3 of their stars have hit like billy hamilton so far it could have been much worse for the sox. 

I think at least jose should heat up soon like he often does in the summer (even though age is some concern) and grandal is just a streaky hitter who will have months were he hits like 0.100 but in the end his numbers will be fine.

With moncada and eloy it probably hinges on health and being 100% fit.

 

Edited May 24, 2022 by Dominikk85

[Chimpton]

3 minutes ago, Dominikk85 said:

The sox didn't have a great start at 21-20 but good news is it could have been worse. 

Sox have scored 148 runs and allowed 170 which should have been an 18-23 record. 

The bad run differential is mainly created by an underperforming offense (91 ops+ combined) while pitching has been fine especially considering the injuries (103 era+). 

 

Now you could also see that negatively as you could expect regression but it also means sox have won some extra games they shouldn't have won and those games still count. 

Now it is important that the offense is turning it around. 

Pitching will be fine as long there aren't too many injuries but grandal (56 ops+), jose (93 ops+), moncada (56 ops+) and eloy (72 ops+) simply need to turn it around, then there even can be some regression by tim and robert and sox should easily win the division. 

But they just need at least 3 out of those "big 4" to be above average hitters, especially eloy, grandal and moncada can't hit below replacement level. 

 

Considering that 3 of their stars have hit like billy hamilton so far it could have been much worse for the sox. 

I think at least jose should heat up soon like he often does in the summer (even though age is some concern) and grandal is just a streaky hitter who will have months were he hits like 0.100 but in the end his numbers will be fine.

With moncada and eloy it probably hinges on health and being 100% fit.

 

So what you are saying is that the Sox are statistically even worse than we think and have lucked into a few undeserved wins!

[caulfield12]

2 hours ago, Chimpton said:

So what you are saying is that the Sox are statistically even worse than we think and have lucked into a few undeserved wins!

Or you can argue without so many blown saves, defensive blunders and getting outmanaged consistently...

Most of that shows up in the respective head to head competition in the AL Central. Sox are 7-12 vs. 13-3 for the Twins, a 7 1/2 game spread.  Guardians are 8-6.  But we even trail KC and Detroit.

 

Edited May 24, 2022 by caulfield12

[Chimpton]

21 minutes ago, caulfield12 said:

Or you can argue without so many blown saves, defensive blunders and getting outmanaged consistently...

Most of that shows up in the respective of head to head competition in the AL Central. Sox are 7-12 vs. 13-3 for the Twins, a 7 1/2 game spread.  Guardians are 8-6.  But we even trail KC and Detroit.

 

So is our glass half full or half empty?

[Dominikk85]

1 hour ago, Chimpton said:

So what you are saying is that the Sox are statistically even worse than we think and have lucked into a few undeserved wins!

Not saying undeserved but sox are 11-7 in 1 and 2 run games and 9-13 in 3+ run games. 

There has been a blown save or two but really the issue has been mostly not hitting and then getting bombed on every keuchel and Velasquez start. 

 

The sox allowed more than 6 runs 7 times this season and 5 of them have been keuchel or VV starts. 

So really sox need their star hitters to hit better and start keuchel and VV less often (i. E getting the rest of the rotation healthy). 

 

TLR will of course cost them an occasional win but this really hasn't been the issue this year most of the time, they mostly lost on the big blowouts. 

Edited May 24, 2022 by Dominikk85

[Chick Mercedes]

https://mobile.twitter.com/JayCuda/status/1528703022846574592

[Buehrle>Wood]

Speaks to the manager prowess of TLR

[Chimpton]

2 hours ago, Dominikk85 said:

Not saying undeserved but sox are 11-7 in 1 and 2 run games and 9-13 in 3+ run games. 

There has been a blown save or two but really the issue has been mostly not hitting and then getting bombed on every keuchel and Velasquez start. 

 

The sox allowed more than 6 runs 7 times this season and 5 of them have been keuchel or VV starts. 

So really sox need their star hitters to hit better and start keuchel and VV less often (i. E getting the rest of the rotation healthy). 

 

TLR will of course cost them an occasional win but this really hasn't been the issue this year most of the time, they mostly lost on the big blowouts. 

You are right, the offense is massively underperforming. Apart from TA and Robert none of them can be relied on consistently and with the injuries to Eloy and Moncada I can't see either of them producing good figures this season.

As for the pitching Keuchel and Velasquez have been as good/bad as expected and either would be fine as a 5th starter or Cueto if his good start carries on. Unfortunately I think we are expecting too much if we think Lynn will be back and contributing anywhere near his level last season, and at some point they will need to consider the workload on Kopech.

But we can hope that the bats wake up consistently and the pitching holds up. If that happens then they should be thereabouts come season end.

[Dominikk85]

3 minutes ago, Buehrle>Wood said:

Speaks to the manager prowess of TLR

I wouldn't go that far, in a small sample it can also just be luck but yeah you can definitely say management wasn't the issue so far. 

 

Still probably TLR will probably cost the team 2 or 3 games over the season but the main issue is getting the stars to hit and get at least one out of the  back end starters out of the rotation. 

[Chimpton]

1 minute ago, Dominikk85 said:

I wouldn't go that far, in a small sample it can also just be luck but yeah you can definitely say management wasn't the issue so far. 

 

Still probably TLR will probably cost the team 2 or 3 games over the season but the main issue is getting the stars to hit and get at least one out of the  back end starters out of the rotation. 

TLR may cost them 2-3 games due to in game decisions, as most managers will, but he will cost them more with his lineups.

[bmags]

8 minutes ago, Chimpton said:

TLR may cost them 2-3 games due to in game decisions, as most managers will, but he will cost them more with his lineups.

On the other hand if you didn’t set up this roster with Josh Harrison and Leury as your two big offseason additions then the manager wouldn’t be using them daily.

[Chimpton]

11 minutes ago, bmags said:

On the other hand if you didn’t set up this roster with Josh Harrison and Leury as your two big offseason additions then the manager wouldn’t be using them daily.

You are not wrong there!

[caulfield12]

White Sox (-0.6 SRS)
Record: 21-20

For all the consternation there has been toward Tony La Russa and his managing style this year, you would think this was a powerhouse team losing close games on the margins. But SRS thinks the White Sox are a far below average team, worse, in fact, than the Mariners, the Red Sox and, gasp, the Cubs. (They have the same SRS as the Orioles.) Considering most of the White Sox’s best injured players will be back relatively soon, the fact that they are still staying above .500 and remaining in this race seems of vital importance. Maybe La Russa is doing something right, anyway.

https://www.mlb.com/news/mlb-teams-with-deceiving-records

[caulfield12]

14 minutes ago, bmags said:

On the other hand if you didn’t set up this roster with Josh Harrison and Leury as your two big offseason additions then the manager wouldn’t be using them daily.

AJ Pollock doesn’t count?

[gogosox1959]

Sox are playing at a 100 win game pace in the month of May.   

The Sox have the 4th best record of any American league in the month of May

1. Houston 16-6, 727

2. Minn 14-7, 667

2. NYY 14-7 .667

4. SOX 13-8 .619 (a 619 win percent is exactly a 100 game tempo).  Sox were 8-12 in April which was 11th place.

On this page you can see standings and scores for any date back through 1871:   https://www.baseball-reference.com/boxes/?month=4&day=30&year=2022

[Chimpton]

18 minutes ago, gogosox1959 said:

Sox are playing at a 100 win game pace in the month of May.   

The Sox have the 4th best record of any American league in the month of May

1. Houston 16-6, 727

2. Minn 14-7, 667

2. NYY 14-7 .667

4. SOX 13-8 .619 (a 619 win percent is exactly a 100 game tempo).  Sox were 8-12 in April which was 11th place.

On this page you can see standings and scores for any date back through 1871:   https://www.baseball-reference.com/boxes/?month=4&day=30&year=2022

A pity the season started in April.

[Chick Mercedes]

1 hour ago, caulfield12 said:

AJ Pollock doesn’t count?

That’s a curious one. Not sure how much they planned it or it unfolded for them despite their arrogant if not dysfunctional approach. But he’s coming around as a positive thing. I’m personally  reluctant to assign a lot of credit for them ‘filling a hole’

[bmags]

[Leonard Zelig]

So this ass kicking means the Sox are performing even more better than they should be?

[Balta1701]

9 hours ago, Leonard Zelig said:

So this ass kicking means the Sox are performing even more better than they should be?

Kinda.

It also suggests that over the long term they will struggle to keep up a .500 pace if they continue playing like this, and that either this will correct or a slump will be coming.

https://medium.com/the-sports-scientist/investigating-baseball-wins-9507158a2418
 

Right now the White Sox are at -0.85 runs/game, and they have been stubbornly stuck there for over a month. However far back that article went - there appears to be 0 teams with this bad of a run differential who finished over .500.

[reiks12]

21 hours ago, Chimpton said:

A pity the season started in April.

I was told on this forum that April games dont count

[Dominikk85]

Pythagorean record now 68-71 so at least they have not gotten unlucky. 

 

Of course now would be a good time for the offense to play up to their talent, last couple days looked encouraging.