Setting the price for Giolito extension/FA pitchers 22-23

[caulfield12]

Jose Berrios 7 years, $131 million, just turned 28

Joe Musgrove, will turn 30 this December as he becomes a FA

 

The reason why it's an interesting comparison is the age difference of roughly 1 1/2 years in favor of Lucas.

Lucas Frost Giolito (born July 14, 1994) is an American professional baseball pitcher for the Chicago White Sox of Major League Baseball (MLB).

 

Both pitchers have turned down their current team's extension attempts, Musgrove originally for 8 years/$88 million.  Flatly declined with no counteroffer.  We all know about the Gio's situation, down to the arbitration/mediation tussle over mere thousands.

With Musgrove one of the current Cy Young favorites (and the team unlikely to pursue Manaea or Clevinger despite massive prospect costs to acquire the latter) and now just four months from FA, numbers being bandied about are ranging from 4 years and $120 million all the way up to 8 years and $180 million, which seems insane given his age and recent workload.  That said, he's a better pitcher than Robbie Ray IMO and SD is his hometown.

(Note:  in addition to those three pitchers, Wil Myers is finally off the books and Hosmer will decrease from $21 to $13 million in the unlikely case he exercises his player option for a 38% salary cut after they tried to trade him two consecutive years.)

  https://www.gaslampball.com/2022/6/4/23154528/padres-extend-joe-musgrove

 

How much would/could/should the White Sox offer Musgrove?   Out of our price range completely? 

How much (if anything) would you offer Giolito as an extension, as of today?

Who would you get then to REPLACE Giolito and/or Lynn to keep the window open beyond 2023 (see all the options below)?

 

Rodon (haha), Bauer (haha squared), deGrom (opt-out guys)

Kyle Gibson, Drew Smyly, Jameson Taillon, Wacha, Wainright (TLR Target #1)

 

25. LHP Andrew Heaney (age 30) injury history

22. RHP Mike Clevinger (age 31) injury history

16. RHP Zach Eflin (age 28) would he really move the needle for the amount of money he will likely get?

11, RHP Chris Bassitt (age 33)  that's not going to happen

10. RHP Nathan Eovaldi (age 32) injury history, too much like Cease/Kopech?

9. LHP Clayton Kershaw (age 34) highly unlikely

7. LHP Sean Manaea (age 30) now four years removed from TJ surgery, Sox could use a LHP in rotation again

6. RHP Noah Syndergaard (age 29) injury history

3. RHP Joe Musgrove (will be age 30), see above

https://bleacherreport.com/articles/2955719-ranking-the-top-25-mlb-players-of-upcoming-2022-23-free-agent-class

 

OR should they spend all their money going after Judge or Trea Turner (2B/SS)???

Feels much more likely:  Josh Bell, Benintendi, Joey Gallo, Willson Contreras if Grandal doesn't recover, MIchael Conforto

 

 

 

[ron883]

Lol c'mon, Judge, Trea Turner, deGrom? Sox will never bid on those guys. Jerry is scared of that long-term commitment. I assume the Sox will sign middling players to shorter deals per usual. 

[caulfield12]

3 minutes ago, ron883 said:

Lol c'mon, Judge, Trea Turner, deGrom? Sox will never bid on those guys. Jerry is scared of that long-term commitment. I assume the Sox will sign middling players to shorter deals per usual. 

Fine, trade for Drury.

.821 OPS, can play 3B, 2B, 1B.   Problem temporarily solved for 2022.    Except for the LH bat, perhaps Benintendi or Josh Bell.

Edited June 7, 2022 by caulfield12

[southsider2k5]

Eleventy billion, not a penny more.

[chitownsportsfan]

Given our financial restrains giving a pitcher a long term deal would be a terrible mistake. This ship has sailed. He'll be trade bait until he's a FA.

[maxjusttyped]

4 minutes ago, chitownsportsfan said:

Given our financial restrains giving a pitcher a long term deal would be a terrible mistake. This ship has sailed. He'll be trade bait until he's a FA.

The Sox have the 7th highest payroll in baseball and trading for Manaea (who we know they wanted) would have put them at 6. They can absolutely afford to pay Giolito a market rate deal. Particularly when his extension would be kicking in at the same time Lynn, Hendriks, Grandal, Pollock, Kelly etc will all be coming off the books.

Edited June 7, 2022 by maxjusttyped

[caulfield12]

17 minutes ago, southsider2k5 said:

Eleventy billion, not a penny more.

If they do keep Musgrove, that will be the fifth contract larger than Grandal's four year deal.  Pretty impressive for the 29th media market in the US.  3rd or 4th in MLB attendance over the past two seasons.

https://www.sportsbusinessjournal.com/Daily/Issues/2022/03/11/Facilities/Tailgate-Park.aspx

Cubs' like neighborhood development project.

Edited June 7, 2022 by caulfield12

[chitownsportsfan]

1 minute ago, maxjusttyped said:

The Sox have the 7th highest payroll in baseball and trading for Manaea (who we know they wanted) would have put them at 6. They can absolutely afford to pay Giolito a market rate deal. Particularly when his extension would be kicking in at the same time Lynn, Hendriks, Grandal, Pollock, Kelly etc will all be coming off the books.

yea then he gets hurt and it's dead money. Even the Red Sox are having a hard time carrying Sale's bum ass. giving a TINSSAAPP a long term neal has literally never been done on the South Side in my lifetime, it's one thing I think JR is actually right about. Unless you've got fuck you money it's almost never a good idea.

[caulfield12]

7 minutes ago, chitownsportsfan said:

yea then he gets hurt and it's dead money. Even the Red Sox are having a hard time carrying Sale's bum ass. giving a TINSSAAPP a long term neal has literally never been done on the South Side in my lifetime, it's one thing I think JR is actually right about. Unless you've got fuck you money it's almost never a good idea.

The problem is that Cease and Kopech are already high risk guys and the main projected rotation replacement Vera profiles similarly.

At the very least, they need to acquire a reliable Manaea type because the upper minors depth chart despite Davis Martin looks pretty barren.

 

(I'm sure someone will soon bring up Justin Verlander, who increasingly seems more like a once every 15-20 years anomaly.  John Danks' name inevitably will arise, as well.)

Edited June 7, 2022 by caulfield12

[maxjusttyped]

9 minutes ago, chitownsportsfan said:

yea then he gets hurt and it's dead money. Even the Red Sox are having a hard time carrying Sale's bum ass. giving a TINSSAAPP a long term neal has literally never been done on the South Side in my lifetime, it's one thing I think JR is actually right about. Unless you've got fuck you money it's almost never a good idea.

I don't think Giolito has missed a start due to an elbow or shoulder injury since getting traded to the Sox. I don't think there's a sustainable path forward for the Sox to contend without locking up one of Cease or Lucas long-term. My preference at this point would be for Lucas, but if they traded him and then paid up for Cease, that would also be fine with me. But I think the important thing is getting a long-term deal in place with one of those 2 guys. The Sox minor league pitching development seems , uhm.. not quite at Dodgers levels let's say, and there isn't a strong pipeline of guys ready to fill the void if you let Lucas and Lynn both walk after next season.

I also don't trust Hahn at all to reallocate the ~20-25M Lucas' extension would take up in a more efficient manor. His bargain/2nd tier level FA signings have been absolutely horrific so I think paying up for a pitcher that's been extremely productive, durable, seems to have a very good work ethic, etc etc etc would be in the Sox long-term best interests even though I understand the inherent risks of signing any pitcher to a long-term big $ deal.

[caulfield12]

6 minutes ago, maxjusttyped said:

I don't think Giolito has missed a start due to an elbow or shoulder injury since getting traded to the Sox. I don't think there's a sustainable path forward for the Sox to contend without locking up one of Cease or Lucas long-term. My preference at this point would be for Lucas, but if they traded him and then paid up for Cease, that would also be fine with me. But I think the important thing is getting a long-term deal in place with one of those 2 guys. The Sox minor league pitching development seems , uhm.. not quite at Dodgers levels let's say, and there isn't a strong pipeline of guys ready to fill the void if you let Lucas and Lynn both walk after next season.

I also don't trust Hahn at all to reallocate the ~20-25M Lucas' extension would take up in a more efficient manor. His bargain/2nd tier level FA signings have been absolutely horrific so I think paying up for a pitcher that's been extremely productive, durable, seems to have a very good work ethic, etc etc etc would be in the Sox long-term best interests even though I understand the inherent risks of signing any pitcher to a long-term big $ deal.

Rock and a hard place with Giolito and Lynn.

Hold onto them and risk getting nothing immediate back that would extend the contention window...unless they continued to chase (with diminishing returns) more fast moving/high volatility collegiate relievers like Crochet or UT's Joyce.

 

No interest in extending Kopech instead of Cease?  Another quandary.

Edited June 7, 2022 by caulfield12

[maxjusttyped]

14 minutes ago, caulfield12 said:

Rock and a hard place with Giolito and Lynn.

Hold onto them and risk getting nothing immediate back that would extend the contention window...unless they continued to chase (with diminishing returns) more fast moving/high volatility collegiate relievers like Crochet or UT's Joyce.

 

No interest in extending Kopech instead of Cease?  Another quandary.

I don't think they're in a difficult situation with either pitcher, really, it's just that the Sox are so used to getting ridiculous bargains on the extensions they do and the window for that to happen with Lucas has obviously closed. All of his public comments have indicated he'd willing to do an extension, just that there won't be any discounts. That shouldn't be an issue for a team carrying a top `1/3 payroll, with minimal to none (I'm not interested in Moncada discourse today) bad money on the books long-term, and the consensus worst collection of minor league pitching talent in baseball.

Edited June 7, 2022 by maxjusttyped

[caulfield12]

38 minutes ago, maxjusttyped said:

I don't think they're in a difficult situation with either pitcher, really, it's just that the Sox are so used to getting ridiculous bargains on the extensions they do and the window for that to happen with Lucas has obviously closed. All of his public comments have indicated he'd willing to do an extension, just that there won't be any discounts. That shouldn't be an issue for a team carrying a top `1/3 payroll, with minimal to none (I'm not interested in Moncada discourse today) bad money on the books long-term, and the consensus worst collection of minor league pitching talent in baseball.

Well besides Moncada you have Grandal Hendriks Jimenez...so the real problem is are you really able to focus on a one year turnaround in 2023 like the Twins or are you pushing off the next realistic "go for it" run back to 2024-26?

How do you realistically compete with such a massive catching hole?

Eventually you're then running into TA's walk year in 2024.

Edited June 7, 2022 by caulfield12

[Green Line]

Giolito is gonna want ace type money but he is no ace himself.  Trade him.

[caulfield12]

6 minutes ago, Green Line said:

Giolito is gonna want ace type money but he is no ace himself.  Trade him.

But when?  TDL?  Let the full season play out?  Or wait until just a 2-3 month rental next summer?

[Chimpton]

6 hours ago, caulfield12 said:

Who would you get then to REPLACE Giolito and/or Lynn to keep the window open beyond 2023 (see all the options below)?

Is the window still open? The bigger issue is do you trade Giolito now in the hope of a good return in the hope of extending the window? Much of that will depend on whether or not you think this season is a bust or are there any signs of a recovery?

But that would mean replacing Giolito from the FA market as the White Sox have nothing remaining in the system and do the WS have that much financial free room with the current wage bill.

[Capital G]

I would see where we stand at the TDL. If our bats still haven't woken up trade Gio (no way he resigns). Trade Lynn if he's doing well. 

Not that I trust it'll happen or go well... but we need to retool and try again next year. That or we've wasted the window. 

 

Retool around Robert, Cease, Kopech, Vaughn, etc. 

 

Stop trying to bring in garbage vets like Harrison and let's see what some of the young kids have. Then go after players to fill in needs where the young guys can't fill them bc they need more time

[caulfield12]

52 minutes ago, Capital G said:

I would see where we stand at the TDL. If our bats still haven't woken up trade Gio (no way he resigns). Trade Lynn if he's doing well. 

Not that I trust it'll happen or go well... but we need to retool and try again next year. That or we've wasted the window. 

 

Retool around Robert, Cease, Kopech, Vaughn, etc. 

 

Stop trying to bring in garbage vets like Harrison and let's see what some of the young kids have. Then go after players to fill in needs where the young guys can't fill them bc they need more time

This description feels almost like 2012-2016 all over again...albeit with a slightly better/bigger core group. 

Of course we also had prime Abreu at that time too.

[he gone.]

why not all of them? JR has shown he really wants to win it all as he gets older. I'm sure he'd entertain 4-5 of these guys this off-season. After all, it's our window. He's proven over the years its really about winning a world series,  not the money/balance sheet. 

[caulfield12]

31 minutes ago, he gone. said:

why not all of them? JR has shown he really wants to win it all as he gets older. I'm sure he'd entertain 4-5 of these guys this off-season. After all, it's our window. He's proven over the years its really about winning a world series,  not the money/balance sheet. 

Now we’re back to the PR team performances/presentations for Machado and Harper without the benefit of signing a player with “panache.”

Judge is the biggest name, but Turner is the best overall player but those are pipe dreams after we failed so publicly and repeatedly with Machado last time…especially with bringing in Jay and Alonso, someone didn’t do their homework in the end and assumed that would be enough to get it done.

Otoh, look at the Twins and Correa, get creative again.

[Superstar Lamar]

I have a sneaking suspicion that not only will there be no discounts but the Sox will have to pay a premium to keep Giolito away from free agency and a preferred return to the west coast

[caulfield12]

This can’t possibly go wrong, since we’re on the subject of pitching futures…

White Sox: Pitching prospects
The White Sox are one of two teams in the Majors without a Top 100 Prospect, per MLB Pipeline. But it doesn’t mean that clubs won’t be interested in Chicago’s ample pitching in the farm system. In the White Sox Top 30 Prospects list: Sixteen are pitchers, including No. 5 Norge Vera, No. 9 Jared Kelley and No. 10 Matthew Thompson. The team’s top pitching prospect, Vera, hasn’t pitched this year due to a lat strain, but his 2021 season in Rookie ball -- 1-0 in seven starts with no earned runs allowed and 34 strikeouts -- makes him a strong target for teams looking to move a veteran player. -- Joey Pollizze

 

https://www.mlb.com/news/mlb-trade-candidates-for-each-team-in-2022?partnerId=zh-20220607-622070-mlb-1-B&qid=1026&utm_id=zh-20220607-622070-mlb-1-B&bt_ee=pK4RyObmWhwVVX3kSwxI49OK%2BIqySl5TSY9uq3QcoBHGsDm3R%2Bdj5YIhDy4Qu56C&bt_ts=1654607504202